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Guerre du Sahara Occidental : Casus belli marocain et options algériennes (Revue de presse)
Une vidéo diffusée le 26 octobre 2021 montre une frappe effectuée par un drone d’attaque Bayraktar TB-2 ukrainien de fabrication turque contre une pièce d’artillerie D-30 (2A18) de 122 mm des forces d
Western Sahara War: Moroccan Casus Belli and Algerian Options
Casus Belli Meaning: an act or situation provoking or justifying war.
Posted by: Strategikale: November 05, 2021In: Featured, HOME, News, News_Maghreb, Geopolitics
- Algeria could use, in response, Russian tactical ballistic missiles of the Iskander-E type against one or more strategic Moroccan military bases in Western Sahara. Two conventional charges of nearly one ton could indeed wipe out the headquarters of a Saharan nodal base located deep behind the defense wall.
Algerian Military has Confirmed its Deployment of Iskander Hypersonic Ballistic Missiles
A Moroccan drone attack fired, on November 1, 2021, two Air-Sol MAM-L missiles at two Algerian civilian commercial trucks stopped on the edge of a known track in the liberated part of Western Sahara, killing three truck drivers and causing a real casus belli with Algeria in this area “forgotten” by the international media.
Unlike the Bayraktar TB-2 strikes in Nagorno-KaraBagh, Libya, Syria and Ukraine where the targets were only military, the drone used by the Moroccan occupying forces in Western Sahara targeted civilians using a trade corridor known avoiding the great sea of sand of the Western Erg, unknown and unexplored territory to this day, and on the other side the defensive wall known as Berm and 2700 km long. The two Algerian trucks were returning from Mauritania where they had delivered white cement and stopped after one of them suffered damage (tire puncture), they were in a static position in broad daylight when two Air- missiles Sol swooped down on them.
Algiers affirmed that this act will not go unpunished in an explicit allusion to military reprisals which will be limited to Western Sahara, a territory plagued by a war that has been silenced for a year thanks to a media blackout maintained by the allies of Morocco.
Morocco draws heavily on the Nagorno-KaraBagh conflict and on the example of Azerbaijan, which achieved a military victory over Armenia through the acquisition of Israeli and Turkish weapons systems. On paper, Algeria's military superiority is overwhelming, especially in the air and ballistic field, but the similarity of armament between Algeria and Armenia with a preponderance of armor and artillery has brought Israeli military advisers in Morocco to conclude that the use of attack drones and kamikaze drones (loitering) could neutralize the Algerian military advantage and allow the reissue of a scenario similar to that of Nagorno-KaraBagh in Western Sahara.
The growing importance of German military equipment within the Algerian military, however, could negate this approach.
The use of Turkish drones Bayraktar TB-2 and Anka S in Syria demonstrated the limits of Russian electronic warfare means, which are among the most advanced in the world. It has demonstrated in other theaters the vulnerability of artillery and armor as well as short-range air defense systems such as the Pantsir S-1 or medium range such as the 9K37 Buk-M1 to this type of threat.
Possible options
Algeria’s response seems to be facilitated by two factors: first, the conflict in Western Sahara that resumed in November 2020 between the Polisario Front and Morocco is an invisible war and under an international media embargo. As a result, an Algerian military-style response within the limits of Western Sahara is quite possible without causing escalation or even much noise. In this context, Algiers could fly over the entire territory of Western Sahara with its attack drones given the extreme difficulties in intercepting them and the weakness of the Moroccan air defense in this area. Second, the Western Sahara area is already a war zone and an escalation limited to this geographic space will not significantly affect security in the Western Mediterranean or in Europe. More asymmetric operations led by the Polisario on the ground and supported by attack drones and Algerian tactical ballistic support could put the entire Moroccan defensive system in Western Sahara in difficulty.
Another example is that of Iran. In response to the assassination of one of its generals, Tehran had indeed shelled a US military base with ballistic missiles. On January 08, 2020, a barrage of Iranian Qiam-1 tactical ballistic missiles struck US Al-Asad air base in Iraq’s Al-Anbar province. The Iranians had previously alerted the Americans as a message to contain a possible escalation.
An attack drone similar to the Turkish Bayraktar fired, on November 1, 2021, two Air-Sol MAM-L missiles at two Algerian civilian commercial trucks stopped on the edge of a known runway in the liberated part of Western Sahara, killing three roads and causing a real casus belli with Algeria in this area “forgotten” by the international media. DR
For several months, Polisario technicals have launched unguided rockets beyond the “Berm” without these actions arousing the slightest interest in the international media. This could change, however, should Algeria use Iskander-E type tactical ballistic missiles against one or more strategic Moroccan military bases in Western Sahara. Two conventional charges of nearly one ton could indeed wipe out the headquarters of a Saharan nodal base located deep behind the defense wall.
A drone war in air-to-air mode is excluded since the two countries do not have the technology necessary for this type of combat of the future. It is also highly unlikely that Morocco would risk using its military aviation, much inferior to that of Algeria, in Western Sahara.
On the other hand, Morocco could increase the scope of its cyber war against Algeria. This is systematic and has been going on for years. Morocco has for a long time mobilized an army of trolls flooding in a very offensive way all the digital, media, virtual or electronic platforms where Algeria is cited or mentioned.
Algeria broke off diplomatic relations with Morocco on August 24, 2021. Less than a month later, on September 22, 2021, Algiers decided to close its airspace to any Moroccan civil or military apparatus and reiterates that it will not renew the contract for the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline passing through Morocco. This energy infrastructure is important for Morocco (17% of electricity production and transit taxes). On October 30, Algiers announced the effective non-renewal of this contract and assured Spain that all of Spain's natural gas supplies would henceforth be provided by the alternative Medgaz gas pipeline directly connecting the Algerian coast to the Spanish city of Almeria and passing under the Mediterranean Sea. On November 01, 2021, a national holiday in Algeria, a Moroccan drone targets two Algerian civilian trucks providing the Ouargla-Nouakchott link. Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar as well as Israel support Morocco. Algeria says punishment is inevitable. The conflict in Western Sahara is now a very hot spot that risks resembling the war in Yemen at the doorstep of Europe.
Strategika
Guerre du Sahara Occidental : Casus belli marocain et options algériennes
Une vidéo diffusée le 26 octobre 2021 montre une frappe effectuée par un drone d'attaque Bayraktar TB-2 ukrainien de fabrication turque contre une pièce d'artillerie D-30 (2A18) de 122 mm des forces…
strategika51.org
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im gonna answer the question myself. Your argument is the same argument that iran used against azerbaijan, and same tactic armenia tried against azerbaijan. Ballistic missiles dont win you wars my friend
