India Quad Archive

[HTurk]

Why not? It will have bipartisan support.

It would constitute a precedent and even though there are people in both parties supporting this amendment, the general opinion is strictly anti-Russian and the leadership of the Democratic Party won't simply back down.

 

[guest12]

It'll never go through.

It will pass with flying colors.

 

[Jackdaws]

It would constitute a precedent and even though there are people in both parties supporting this amendment, the general opinion is strictly anti-Russian and the leadership of the Democratic Party won't simply back down.

I doubt it. There is a precedent with Pressler Amendment where the American president was given a workaround to supply arms to Pak.

 

[HTurk]

I doubt it. There is a precedent with Pressler Amendment where the American president was given a workaround to supply arms to Pak.

You do realize that Turkey will jump on this golden opportunity and put maximum pressure on Washington on every global stage whenever it is possible? No doubt that India's becoming increasingly important for the US to tackle China's growing influence but I do believe that certain boundaries are set in this relationship even for Delhi.

 

[Jackdaws]

You do realize that Turkey will jump on this golden opportunity and put maximum pressure on Washington on every global stage whenever it is possible? No doubt that India's becoming increasingly important for the US to tackle China's growing influence but I do believe that certain boundaries are set in this relationship even for Delhi.

Of course it will. And it has every right to. No one says America plays fair. Which is why India has always been reluctant to be in any American camp historically. After all, Nixon did send in the nuclear armed 7th fleet to put pressure on India during the war of 1971.

 

[Nilgiri]

Your views @Nilgiri ?

a) the Biden administration was planning to impose some form of watered-down version of CAATSA so as it avoid the spectacle of "double-standards" or "exceptionalism", while continuing to work with India on platforms where it is crucial such as QUAD, and perhaps continuing arms sales & strategic relations. This may have been unacceptable to the Indian Govt as it could still prove to be enough fuel for both the Russian lobby & the so-called "Non-Aligned" lobby to drive a permanent wedge between India & the US on public platforms, which in turn may prove detrimental to the national security interests of both India, the US and even the other two QUAD states.

Pro-India lobbies across party lines may have been set in motion to prevent this from happening and to grant the waiver, while upping the stakes by making it clear that if CAATSA, in whatever form, were to be imposed, it will have negative effects across the spectrum - including in QUAD as well as the crucial Vaccine collaboration that is forming with the aim of edging out Chinese 'vaccine diplomacy' in South-East Asia & elsewhere.

The lobbying only plays some role in this at the middle tiers.

The top tier being the visible faces of leadership etc we see in the media.

But what of the "base" layer?

Here there was clear messaging given by Indian MEA since 2017 (taking the baton from earlier dialogues in post 9/11 era in general) at the relevant deep exchange meetings with US side about CAATSA, QUAD, sunset windows needed etc.

It was made clear to them (core base-layer bureaucrats sometimes called the "Deep state") what the gas pedal inputs from their end would get in wheel speed and traction results for the joint vehicle ride.

i.e what a status quo would involve....or slight improvement and deteoriation of it in relation to such things as the QUAD (and Indo-US strategic partnership that preceded it still being fairly new).

Basically they know if they want India to take the Quad seriously and improve/expand/deepen its scope....that is on them mostly to set the clear route for us to see and take stock of (given US being the far more powerful country in the relationship to make this so).

Any funny business like CAATSA sanctions etc, just means status quo or deteoriation in the Quad...as they clearly know what our inertia is with Russia on this stuff that we need time to maneuver.

Some of this is what I also mention here:

Analysis - UK Army Chief Visits Jammu & Kashmir, meets Indian Officers

Srinagar, Oct 28: Chief of British Army General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith on Thursday visited Srinagar-based Chinar Corps of the Indian Army. "General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith, Chief of the General Staff, #BritishArmy visited #ChinarCorps and interacted with Lieutenant General DP Pandey, GOC...

defencehub.live

b) the decision to grant a waiver (which only the President and/or Secy of State can do AFAIK) may have already been reached internally, but in order to avoid the spectacle of this being a "unilateral" foreign policy decision which again brings with it the spectacle of double-standards and/or exceptionalism, there is political gimmickry afoot to make the waiver seem as a Republican proposal, and by accepting it, an image of the waiver decision being reached as a result of bipartisan consensus can be created - alleviating the potential risk of problem actors from both ends of the political spectrum from raking up the issue at a future point to put the Biden administration's foreign policy in a spot.

Executive "Biden" waiver does not come into picture here much.

A number of Obama waivers got into hot water (not covered by Media much) over Iran deal impulsiveness EO's relative to the bedrock inertia commited in legislature (and thus judiciary then being an arbiter). That is just foreign policy example of waiver issues....there are many domestic policy ones that I wont go into....

CAATSA was voted in the US legislature by massive bipartisan super majority in 2017.

Essentially it became executive veto-proof.

Trump grumbled about signing it (given some parts of it he didnt like etc)....but even if he didn't sign it....congress would make it law because of the overwhelming super majority in legislature backing it.

This is why CAATSA waiver (for India) also has to be done by the same legislature....rather than president/executive.

It boils down to senators and representatives seeing the bigger picture w.r.t India and the Quad and how they want to see that steered this decade from their end. Binding India to it (CAATSA) means that all gets hamstrung big time.....

India they know will make do with that....our memory is long you see.

In the euchre term, it is them that must show why (hopefully 1 or 2 "bowers" in hand) they declared the trump suit (but didn't go it alone, i.e indicating they prefer help)....and we will play our hand accordingly to that.

But we know previous hands, and know there are future hands to play, this round is just in "the middle somewhere"...and there can always be rematches after anyway.

Previous hands when they were not sitting as partner (in Euchre)......we bring up that CBG in Bay of Bengal as needed to remind them....the drama that unfolded between Ted Kennedy (legislature) and Tricky Dicky (executive) more broadly.

 

[Nilgiri]

It'll never go through.

It would constitute a precedent and even though there are people in both parties supporting this amendment, the general opinion is strictly anti-Russian and the leadership of the Democratic Party won't simply back down.

You do realize that Turkey will jump on this golden opportunity and put maximum pressure on Washington on every global stage whenever it is possible? No doubt that India's becoming increasingly important for the US to tackle China's growing influence but I do believe that certain boundaries are set in this relationship even for Delhi.

You must consider a number of vital differences between India and Turkey (geopolitical, positioning, sizes, contexts)

Then some specifics on top like:

1) Does India operate a NATO C4I structure at root? (Is India part of NATO to begin with essentially).

2) Is India planning to operate a high end system like F-35 (that forms a huge % of US power level for first half of this century) with its C4I?

3) What 1 and 2 mean together w.r.t Turkey, Russia and US....given this takes on a different paradigm for the (IND, RUS, US) set.

4) What are the armed forces of the respective countries inertia with Russian systems in general.

It might be useful to read my earlier reply (and earlier reply within it) first as well.

@VCheng might find this thread interesting and have something to say too.

 

[Ardabas34]

I always say this and I will say this again. We didnt receive CAATSA because of S-400s. This will go through.

 

[VCheng]

You must consider a number of vital differences between India and Turkey (geopolitical, positioning, sizes, contexts)

Then some specifics on top like:

1) Does India operate a NATO C4I structure at root? (Is India part of NATO to begin with essentially).

2) Is India planning to operate a high end system like F-35 (that forms a huge % of US power level for first half of this century) with its C4I?

3) What 1 and 2 mean together w.r.t Turkey, Russia and US....given this takes on a different paradigm for the (IND, RUS, US) set.

4) What are the armed forces of the respective countries inertia with Russian systems in general.

It might be useful to read my earlier reply (and earlier reply within it) first as well.

@VCheng might find this thread interesting and have something to say too.

I will prefer to wait and watch what happens for now. Turkey's version of Zia ul Haq will make the coming period an interesting one for sure. As regards India, I am not the only one Modi has disappointed, and could easily destroy the budding partnerships.

 

[Jackdaws]

I will prefer to wait and watch what happens for now. Turkey's version of Zia ul Haq will make the coming period an interesting one for sure. As regards India, I am not the only one Modi has disappointed, and could easily destroy the budding partnerships.

Don't get me started on Modi. No one has done more damage to India's image than his two terms. Sad, because he has made some genuine differences at the grassroot level, developed infrastructure and brought relative transparency into the system.

 

[VCheng]

Don't get me started on Modi. No one has done more damage to India's image than his two terms. Sad, because he has made some genuine differences at the grassroot level, developed infrastructure and brought relative transparency into the system.

He started off with great promise, which makes the disappointment all the more embarrassing. I would like to say no more here.

 

[TR_123456]

1) Does India operate a NATO C4I structure at root? (Is India part of NATO to begin with essentially).

This.

 

[Jackdaws]

This.

But how did Turkey become a bete Noir of the Americans? Weren't they allies all these years. I'd ask @Nilgiri but he will give me a thesis. I just want a shorter version.

 

[Lool]

But how did Turkey become a bete Noir of the Americans? Weren't they allies all these years. I'd ask @Nilgiri but he will give me a thesis. I just want a shorter version.

The only way to understand the situation is through a thesis

Firstly, when Turkey joined NATO, it wasnt out of love from both sides but rather out of necessity; Turkey was way too weak to face Russia (due to many reasons) and the West needed a geographical barrier to encage Russia; so that the Western countries live in peace. Thus, voila, Turkey joined NATO and both parties got what they want
It is the essence of such a relationship that shapes todays problems tbh!
What the West wants from Turkey is an obedient country that always reply with "yes my master" to whatever the US wants. When Turkey started being disobedient due to US sanctioning Turkey during the Cyprus war or due to the US arming the radical kurds etc..., US became infuriated but was still acting amicably as Turkey was weak. Now that Turkey one way or another has the strength to back its national interests, the balance changed and now the US wants to stop Turkey from growing one way or another so that they can revert back to the "Yes my master" phase and for the US to ensure its own and the Western dominance in Africa, Med East and Above all to prevent another strong player from joining the competition of supremacy
None like competition after all, lool. I believe the West learned pretty well From China's case

This is a quick summary of the situation, I believe

The US will try to be friendly to India until China is dealt with and then the US will try to bring India down

 

[TR_123456]

But how did Turkey become a bete Noir of the Americans? Weren't they allies all these years. I'd ask @Nilgiri but he will give me a thesis. I just want a shorter version.

Allies on paper only.
Enough ally to defend its self against all but the West and Russia by getting handouts(obsolete equipment), untill the 90s(end of the Soviet Union).
The goal was always to control my country and eventually dividing it into pieces.
My country was never seen as an ally,more like a foot soldier.

http://repository.bilkent.edu.tr/bitstream/handle/11693/32597/10133138.pdf?sequence=1

 

[Nilgiri]

But how did Turkey become a bete Noir of the Americans? Weren't they allies all these years. I'd ask @Nilgiri but he will give me a thesis. I just want a shorter version.

It is just better to ask and see what you get. I can be pretty succinct too. It depends on what is needed to be said.

It can be summarised quite easily in this case.

In this case its the tribalism that takes shape in power corridors in the West...

i.e Anglo-saxon, northern european, other europeans, european minorities that have achieved trust in system (over many centuries).

Outside of this is where Turks generally fall (especially their nation state core anyway)....along with Asians in general etc.

Tribalism inevitably erodes transparency and good faith (it is not a feature selective to the West...it is everywhere in human species).

Earlier quotes that may be prudent:

You don't understand because you coming at it rationally.

But there is an irrational divide in the anglo-saxon head.

Out of dozen or so "WASPS" I have had to deal with in higher tier stuff....for every good+fair minded one there is a foul minded one when certain push come to shove things are brought to air out.

I then see which one gets promoted....its stacked in favour of latter.

This colours all their approach in dealing with threats like Russia and China.

A country like Greece will always be preferred over Turkey in that psyche....no matter what Turkey offers.

Similar thing goes on in other neighbourhoods in different ways.....but that is too long topic to get into.

They are symptom of a larger problem.

Crash and burn is not the solution as another one like it will pop up just the same.

There is a whole elitist group in the west that live in ivory towers thinking their shit smells like flowers.

They have convinced themselves of a lot of immoral, irrational things....and there has not been enough blowback on it to correct it and bring them down a peg or two......yet.

Actually this is off-topic anyway.

For MIUS and UAV tech, turkey and other countries should simply not care what others think and blah about it.....and keep developing it....and go for results always.

Results bring truth to matter like nothing else can.

 

[Jackdaws]

It is just better to ask and see what you get. I can be pretty succinct too. It depends on what is needed to be said.

It can be summarised quite easily in this case.

In this case its the tribalism that takes shape in power corridors in the West...

i.e Anglo-saxon, northern european, other europeans, european minorities that have achieved trust in system (over many centuries).

Outside of this is where Turks generally fall (especially their nation state core anyway)....along with Asians in general etc.

Tribalism inevitably erodes transparency and good faith (it is not a feature selective to the West...it is everywhere in human species).

Earlier quotes that may be prudent:

Wonders will never cease.

 

[Manomed]

Don't get me started on Modi. No one has done more damage to India's image than his two terms. Sad, because he has made some genuine differences at the grassroot level, developed infrastructure and brought relative transparency into the system.

Is modi corrupt like our president?

 

[Nilgiri]

Is modi corrupt like our president?

Different kind, different flavour....but yes (IMO).

 

[TheInsider]

IMHO India getting an exception for CAATSA law is a heaven-sent gift for TR. I hope it passes in congress(which is likely IMO) It will show the US hypocrisy at the highest international level. It will show that the US can't enforce its laws and TR has every right to blame the US. It will show that the US become a plaything of various lobbies. It will also show that the real reason behind Turkish CAATSA sanctions is not the procurement of S-400. We will put it on the table whenever we see an American official. The prestige and reliability of the US are getting big hits and I don't think the US will defend Taiwan when push comes to shove. The US guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine under the condition that Ukrain will return Soviet-era nukes to Russia. That didn't end well for Ukraine. The US ran away from Afghanistan after leaving the country in ruins. The US lost Iraq to Iran, Syria to Iran and Russia, half of Libya to Russia. Well, I see a pattern here.