Turkish Drone Doktrine and Theaters of War in the Greater Middle East
(Part 1)
by Ridvan Bari Urcosta
11/04/2021
Introduction
Turkey has an advantage in drones in the military-technological revolution. It is a short period when one country is gaining an advantage in the technology and new type of warfare hence any nation has limited time for smart use of this advantage and superiority for geopolitical gains. Nieghbors and adversaries eventually catch up, setting a military and technological equilibrium that would constrain geopolitical adventures of any power.
Drones since the Persian Gulf War in 1991 are attributes of prestige and a symbol of the advanced level of military technologies. During the Cold War, only a few could allow themselves such technology: thetwo superpowers and Israel. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, for two decades the United States and Israel enjoyed full superiority over the UAVs' cutting-edge technologies. In the recent decade, the advanced UAV technologies proliferated far beyond Israel, the U.S., and the West, at large. Nevertheless, recently to this club joined two powers China and Turkey. Turkish and Chinese drones are competing now in Libya for the Third World markets. If in the case of China nobody was surprised but
the Turkish leap into the league of the drone powers was a stunning event for many experts and politicians. Some even labeled Turkey as “drone great power”, “drone superpower” or that Turkey introduced the new military drone doctrine. Turkey
now has 110 Bayraktar TB2, 24 ANKA drones and 10 include
Israeli Heron UAVs.
For a long timeTurkey was an ordinary importer of drone technologies. In 1996 Ankara bought UAVs from the US. In2006 Turkey ordered ten unarmed Heron drones from Israel to use against the PKK in South-East Turkey. Ankara has since accused Israel that it has access to the data from these drones. A 2010 incident known as a
Gaza flotilla raid dramatically undermined the drone cooperation between two states. Until 2016 Turkey relied on the United States, but in this year became crystal clear that the U.S. was not going to share UAS technologies with Turkey. In the same year, Turkey’s President of Defense Industries, İsmail Demir
stated during his stay in the U.S. “I don’t want to be sarcastic, but I would like to thank [the U.S. government] for any of the projects that were not approved by the U.S. because it forced us to develop our systems,” adding that Turkey
no longer wanted U.S.-made armed drones. The grand desire of Turkey at that moment was the construction of indigenous combat drones (UCAVs). Thanks to restrictive measures on drone technology of the West towards Turkey, this strategic goal was achieved by two Turkish companies that allowed to become Turkey the leading state with UCAVs that proved their effectiveness in many combats. The first company is the Turkish Aerospace Industries S.A which is developing mostly
Ankadrones for tactical surveillance and reconnaissance missions, but in recent years company is developing combat drones. For example, since 2018
Anka-S is equipped with the Smart Micro Munition (MAM L and C) systems. The second company, Baykar Makina, is developing and producing the
Bayraktar drones. It is a totally indigenous Turkish project.Interestingly, that the inventor of the drones is Selcuk Bayraktar. He has graduated from MIT and married Recep Erdogan’s daughter. Bayraktar gained wide recognition in May 2016 by taking part in the joint military training in Izmir, where Baykar Makina presented its new drone, the
Bayraktar TB2 reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicle. This UAV was adopted by the Turkish army in 206, making Turkey the sixthcountry in the world which is manufacturing indigenous UCAVs along the U.S., Israel, Iran, Pakistan, and China.
However,
none none of other countries have not been using the drones on such an the scale that Turkey foresees. For countries like the U.S., countries, drones were only pieces of the bigger military puzzle.
Ankara has developed a strategy that uses drones as a key tool for its military and geopolitical ambitions. Drones will allow Turkey to establish full control over the battlefield with the deployment of ground troops.
In order to understand the geopolitical scale of Turkish use of the UAVs it is important to examine the following components of Turkish strategy regarding the drone factor and drone’s warfare and the theaters of drone wars:
- For internal use against Kurds and the PKK. Thus, the drones are the perfect instrument against the guerrilla and insurgency groups inside the country;
- Military operations of Turkey in the recent years: “Olive Branch” 2018 and Operation “Spring Shield” in 2020, which is known as Turkish-Syrian Confrontation in the Idlib Province February-March 2020;
- Turkish drones in Libya as a crucial element of GNA’s military capabilities against the regime of Khalifa Haftar;
- The Aegean Theater;
- Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh: Turkish drones’ factor;
- Military drone cooperation with Ukraine, Qatar, Azerbaijan, Tunisia, and the GNA in Libya;
- Future of Turkish drones as a geopolitical tool;
Turkish Drones Against the Kurdish PKK
The first victim or target of the Turkish drones were the military formations of the Turkish, Syrian and Iraqi Kurds. Ankara bought its first drones in 1996 in the U.S. known as GNAT-750. These drones were used in the southeast of Turkey and the Kurdish populated areas in Iraq and Syria. It has not been stopgap measures for Turkey against the PKK and its followers, it became a constant tool of surveillance, intelligence, and neutralization in the above-mentioned areas. Turkey engaged the Israelis Heron drones in October 2011, when over 100 PKK fighters killed 26 Turkish soldiers in Hakkari Province. However, before the appearing combat drones, Turkey was not able to conduct successful operations against the Kurds with drone use merely due to the fact that drones had a big delay in delivering real-time pictures and that in the fight against small and mobile insurgents groups time minutes play a crucial role that allows relocating the troops for save places. The situation is changed when Ankara introduced the PKK combat drones Bayraktar and Anka. It permitted to Turkish Army to exercise immediate strikes against the Kurds as immediately as they were detected. It considerably undermined Kurdish rebels’ partisan war positions in the mountainous areas of South-East Turkey. The drones took active participation since May 2019 and till September 2020 in two Turkish military operations against the PKK in Iraq: Claw-Eagle and Claw-Tiger Drones prevent face-to-face encounters between Turkish law enforcement forces and militaries with the Kurdish insurgents, something that has historically aggravated the Kurdish resistance movement and has created a political backlash.
Military operations of Turkey in Syria and Iraq
The geographical coverage of the use by Turkey of the Israeli drones against the PKK since 2006 extended to Northern Iraq and Syria. Drones continued to play a critical role in helping Turkey advance its holdings and operations into Syria and some areas of the Northern Iraq. During the conflict of February-March 2020 (Operation Spring Shield), Turkish drones were operating almost everywhere in the Greater Idlib zones and reached the deep rear of the Syrian Army. The penetration into the Syrian rear had serious psychological and military consequences. The Syrians spotted them in Hama and Aleppo the territories under Syrian Government control. Turkey used the drones in the operation “Olive Branch” in 2018, but it was the first time at such a scale and against a foreign country that has such a powerful backer as Russia, which has become Syria's guarantor and controller of its airspace. In Afrin in 2018 and 2020 in Idlib Turkish drones haven’t been invoked by the Russian and Syrian announcement of the closure of Syrian airspace. Thus, the drones had a free hand in Northern Syria.
In Idlib, the Turkish Army involved new drones for the first time and has used its Turkish-made ANKA-S and Bayraktar-TB2 (UCAVs) with such intensity. The drones for Turkey were not only a strategic or tactical component during the Idlib hostilities. Furthermore,
Turkey actively promoted itself as a country which for the first time in the real battle used sophisticated small drones in the so-called “swarm” tactic against the Assad regime forces. The Turkish officials described a new type of drone attack by the state armed forces as a military innovation that demonstrated Ankara’s technological prowess on the battlefield.
It was the first time the country had commanded air space over such a large area using drone swarms. These swarms of remotely-controlled drones
by the series destroyed Syrian bases and chemical warfare depots, as well as missile-defense systems. Russia had to intervene in the conflict both military and diplomatically in order to stop the Turkish impressive advance.
The strategic success of Turkey in Idlib and now in the Southern Caucasus is undeniable; they managed to stop the operation of the Syrian Army against the rebels and even pushed them back and in Nagorno-Karabakh, the drones are the main backbone of the cutting-edge military success of Azerbaijan against Armenia. Some bold specialists provided quite interesting characteristics
that Turkey is now “a robust drone power with new technologies, concepts, and a burgeoning military-strategic cultural character prioritizing unmanned system in fighting wars.”
It is important to note that the use of drones by Turkey ignited very specific competition in all theaters of war (Libya, Syria, and now Karabakh). It is a duel between the Turkish drones against the Russian anti-aircraft missile-cannon systems Pantsir-S. The development of drone warfare immediately triggering the process of evolution of electronic warfare and the development of air-defense systems. The old systems are weak against loitering drones or missiles.
Libya: competition with Chinese Drones and against the Russian Pantsir Systems
Turkey in recent years is the major proponent of the GNA regime in the western part of Libya and used drones to reinforce its political stance. The impressive success of the use of the Turkish drones in Libya determined the beginning of the negotiations between Algeria and Turkey
regarding the acquisition of Bayraktar drones. The first news that Turkish drones in Libya were in 2019 and it was popular to claim that there is happening first in the history of war ongoing the drone war. The Libyan drone theater is interesting due to two factors. First is that there
is happening competition between relatively cheap Chinese Wing Loong II drones that provides the UAE. Comparing with the Turkish drones they are possessing several crucial advantages in cruising altitude, range, payload, and speed. The Libyan terrain is enormous hence it requires a different altitude and range. The Bayraktar TB2
is smaller in size, speech (220 km/h), endurance (27 h.) communication range (150 km.), and payload (55 kg.), therefore Turkish drones have a limited mission set and are able to harass only supply lines in the limited areas comparing with Chinese drones. The Wing Long II for a much more robust range of missions, according to speed (370 km/h), endurance (32h.), and
purportedly can carry (payload) about 400kg.
The biggest question remains, regarding the operators of these drones from both sides of the frontline in Libya – who is operating by them? It should be noted that if in the case of Libya Turkish drones are less competitive for the terrains of Azerbaijan or Northern Syria, they proved their effectiveness. Second, the same actually as in the case of Idlib is the competition or rivalry between the Turkish drones against the Russian anti-aircraft missile-cannon systems Pantsir-S1 and jamming systems. According to different reports, Turkish
drones destroyed about 23 Pantsir-S1 in Syria and Libya. Russia eventually recognized that these systems are weak against drones, due to the simple reason that nobody
envisaged in the project that small and middle-size drones will be part of modern warfare.
Aegean and Cyprus War Theaters
Perspective war theaters for the Turkish drones are the Aegean and Cyprus. Both perfectly fitting into the operational capabilities of Turkish drones. From Northern Cyprus, the drones can control the entire area of Cyprus and reach the highest areas of the Troodos Mountains. The Aegean Sea is a tiny sea and it is a manageable task for the drones to establish control over the sea. Plus, more likely drones can be uses for constant control and monitoring of Greek islands and targeting and destruction of Greek ships. It is unclear how would be successful the rockets MAM ‘L’ and ‘C’ against the gunboats and mid-size vessels. Nevertheless, it is certain that in case of war the drone will be a serious challenge for the Greek ships.
Turkey extensively and broadly uses drones for patrol and reconnaissance in sensitive areas of the region. But in the Aegean and Northern Cyprus Turkish drones are cooperating with the Turkish Navy. Turkey uses drones as an integral part of the army or for example in February 2020 was noticed the intensification of the drones near Greece when Turkey
sought to create a refugee influx. It is only begging for the Aegean and entire Turkish drone industry that in the near future Ankara will integrate new types of drones. For example, recently Turkey unveiled a new UCAV “ULAQ” or drone ship that is armed with missiles. The operational range is 400 km with a speed of 65 km/h. It is armed with four Cirit and L-UMTAS missiles produced by the Roketsan company. They are laser-guided missiles for attacking ships and helicopters. It can
be operated from another ship or an aircraft for intelligence collection missions, patrol and observation, asymmetrical surface warfare, escorting ships, and protection of strategic infrastructure. The development of such technology put important geostrategic and doctrinal implications. If Turkey achieved in the airspace medium now Ankara prepares and makes a concrete move in direction of accomplishing the new generation warfare stage in the sea. In such a situation Greece has a chance to become the next Armenia that slept the alteration of the military balance between the countries.
The dronization on the direction of conquering multi-medium spaces, but it should be remembered that drone is the only transitional phase to robotization of warfare.
Nagorno-Karabakh Drone Theater
Turkey has also used drones to help strengthen its security foothold in the Southern Caucasus, a region where Turkish, Iranian, and Russian interests intersect. The issue over the Turkish drones was serious for Baku and it faced multifaceted diplomatic pressure both from the West and from the neighbors like Iran and Armenia. In June 2016 Baku has been announced that
it is going to purchase the drones from Turkey alone with financial support from Turkey. Again this such news
appeared a couple of weeks before the confrontation in July, when it became official that Baku is ready to buy Bayraktar drones from Turkey. The July Clashes 2020 opened the room to Turkey to initiate greater military support and on July 17 the Turkish Defense Industry
promised immediately supply Baku with UCAVs, missiles, and electronic warfare (EW) systems. The most interesting part of this drone story in this conflict that Armenia is accuses Israel of sailing to Baku drones, but at the same time, the only combat drone which Baku has from Israel is the kamikaze drones. The drones have proved a great utility here due to the region’s terrain specificities. The mountainous terrain makes it difficult to move equipment and people. Deploying UAVs is one way to observe enemy behavior as well as attack the enemy without putting at risk expensive fighter jets and their trained pilots. The drones put big uncertainty for the future of conventional warfare or for example future of the heavy tanks that were an easy target for the drones. In the areas where the drones facing some difficulties and limitations for example in the zones of Karabakh Baku reportedly use phosphorus bombs in order to burn out these zones and reveal them for the drones and artillery.
Moreover,
Baku’s drones destroyed: 114 tanks, 43 IFV/APC, 141 artillery/ MRLS, 42 SAM/Radars, 248 military vehicles. It is a full-scale war between two small countries. The Azerbaijanis
military experts even counted on Dollars the total losses it is approximately $1 billion. Only tanks up to $210 million. It is a full-scale war between two small countries. Both sides are blaming each other for bombing the territories and cities that are far beyond the front line. The most impressive losses of the Armenian side in armored vehicles - apparently destroyed half of all Armenian tanks, half of the self-propelled artillery mounts.
The Western powers only now are able to cognize the scale of the technological might of Turkey and they are trying to impose drastic anti-Turkish measures in order to prevent further development of the technologies. Israel is
already considering to halt its weapons sale to Azerbaijan and take a more aggressive stance towards Ankara. Canada decided to suspend exports of drone military technology (imaging and targeting systems made by L3Harris Webcam, the Canada-based unit of L3Harris Technologies Inc.) to Turkey, Ankara
reacted that it is a “double standard” policy.
The future of the use of drones in this war is depending totally on the success of the Armenian Army in finding a way to counter the combat drones and drone-kamikaze. Otherwise, Armenia would lose the war in Nagorno-Karabakh air space, other side of the situation is that the drones are able to impose on Armenia the conditions of the war of attrition. Baku simply sends the drones and destroys the critical infrastructure of an unrecognized republic and Armenia.
Turkish experts, assessing positively current drone war, and claim it as “dronization of war”. They believe that the development of the revolutionary warfare concept is continuing its implementation from one military theater to another. This concept is perfectly fitting against the Russian and Soviet types of weaponry.
The dronization is inevitable and Turkish General Staff is in this direction, the Turkish expert wrote.