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Armed drones in future wars: ADF needs asymmetric technology
Australian industry is thinking about the anti-drone challenge, with companies such as EOS developing electronic countermeasures. Above, an anti-drone control centre. Source: EOS
By Kym Bergmann; October 30, 2021
Eventually the technology in science-fiction movies becomes reality, and high-speed robot drones blasting away at individual humans is already happening in grey-zone and under-reported conflicts around the world.
While Australia remains preoccupied with a conflict involving China with massed conventional forces, events in Syria, Gaza, Ukraine and the Caucuses paint a different picture of what a future war might look like.
These hybrid conflicts involve a mixture of old technologies combined with an increasing use of small, relatively cheap aerial systems – including loitering munitions and hand-launched quadcopters – incorporating developments in image recognition software and artificial intelligence.
Greatest progress has been made in ground and air-ground combat, though uninhabited and robotic systems are also making great strides in the air-to-air and naval domains. Most of these developments still require a human in or on the loop – often for legal reasons – but the technology already exists to produce swarms of deadly, small, autonomous, self-configuring armed drones.
One graphic taste of a possible future for land conflict was the brief but intense war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in late 2020. Being far from Australia and involving unpronounceable names, it received little coverage in the media, but defence planners sat up and took note. It was one of the most lopsided military conflicts in recent history, with Azerbaijan achieving a crushing victory by the application of new technologies, particularly drones equipped with stand-off missiles.
Christian Armenia and Muslim Azerbaijan have been at each other’s throats for a millennium, with neither gaining the ascendancy for long. In a myriad of previous conflicts they have fought themselves to a standstill with one side nominally finishing ahead, and then the other. Not this time.
Armenia fielded a large and heavily armed conventional force structured around hundreds of Russian Main Battle Tanks and heavy air defence systems – but this time Azerbaijan did something different. To their equally heavily armed classic military, they added loitering munitions from Israel and missile-carrying UAVs from Turkey.
As a consequence of arms embargoes on Turkey, that country has developed an impressive defence industry base, helped by input from a number of other nations, including periodically Israel.
This has led to the development of systems such as the Bayraktar TB2 drone, which can carry 150kg of smart munitions and stay aloft for more than 24 hours.
Turkey has successfully used them in small numbers against Kurds on home soil, in Syria and also in Libya.
Because of their size they are invisible to the naked eye when operating at a combat altitude of 20,000 feet and are similarly difficult to detect by radar and electro-optical systems, using a lot of carbon fibre in their construction.
Azerbaijan purchased a number – believed to be several dozen – in mid-2020 and started planning their immediate co-ordinated use against Armenian forces.
After first deploying Israeli loitering munitions to take out Armenian radar sites and missile batteries, the drones then started methodically targeting Armenian armoured vehicles, artillery, fortified positions and command and control nodes, picking them off at will. The brief tally is that in a few weeks they destroyed around 200 Armenian Main Battle Tanks with complete impunity – and gun camera footage showed enemy soldiers cowering in trenches having no idea where the rain of guided missiles was coming from while at the same time being powerless to protect themselves.
The result was that Armenia surrendered and handed Nagorno-Karabakh over to Azerbaijan, possibly ending the centuries-old dispute forever. There were a number of other factors, such as Azerbaijan using mercenaries from Syria to limit their own casualties, and more modern equipment overall – but almost all analysts agree that the critical game-changing elements were the cheap, numerous, semi-autonomous drones using target-recognition software.
If these had been deployed against the Australian Army the consequences might have been equally lopsided because the ADF has not yet made any significant investments in anti-drone systems and possesses no loitering munitions capability.
Current acquisitions such as the Boxer 8x8 and future IFVs have defensive capability against conventional threats with 30mm main guns and antitank guided missiles.
However these would have limited effectiveness against something like a high flying Bayraktar attacking from the near-vertical and even less against a quadcopter purchased from a hobby shop flying in low and fast with a 1kg shaped-charge warhead.
Australian industry is thinking about the anti-drone challenge, with companies such as EOS developing a laser and gun system and DroneShield with electronic countermeasures, but for the moment the army seems to be only politely curious about these products.
The RAAF is focused on air combat but needs to think urgently about defending bases, most of which are highly vulnerable. The RAN is investing in hugely expensive and very capable area air and missile defence systems but would be helpless against a swarm of tiny drones targeting every helicopter on the deck of an LHD.
While the conventional threat from China seems to be the main one, there are plenty of scenarios for future combat that are just as concerning, if not more so.
NoCookies | The Australian
www.theaustralian.com.au
We have like 3 herons still operating''helped by input from a number of other nations, including periodically Israel.''
I have seen this many times. Did we acquire any critical technology for our UCAVs from Israel ever?
We also have Harpies I know but did they share any know-how to make them? I highly doubt.We have like 3 herons still operating
We also have Harpies I know but did they share any know-how to make them? I highly doubt.
Source?View attachment 34896
Herons use Turkish made engines thats all I know at the moment
Nice articleExport of the Turkish Drones
Finally, Turkey is now looking to advance its influence by exporting drones, but together with Iran (which mostly operates on the level of non-state actors in the Middle East) and China violate the non-official policy of non-proliferation policy of drone military technologies. The Obama administration imposed “a disciplined and rigorous framework” for U.S. drone exports in 2013 and it was a chance for the non-Western countries. However, these actors are benefiting from such
The current situation shows that the Turkish approach regarding drone cooperation is based upon the geopolitical priorities of Turkey. All countries that are importing Turkish drones more or less have close military cooperation and claiming that between them exists the strategic partnership. Even the case of Egypt is striking, until Mohamed Morsi was in power Egypt promised to buy the Turkish drones, but when he was overthrown these promises have never been fulfilled. Until now only three countries have Turkish drones: Ukraine, Qatar, and Azerbaijan. Ukraine started its cooperation with Turkey in 2018 and bought 6 drones together with 200 MAM-L bombs and UMTAS missiles. Ukraine plans to use its Soviet industrial capabilities to join the building of the drones. However, Ukraine did not use them in the Donbas conflict, but it is a matter of time owing to that in the case of Baku the drones superiority creating a great temptation to for the revision of regional status quo. In October 2020 Ukrainian President visited Ankara where he pledged to buy 48 Bayraktar TB2. In 2019 30 Ukrainian operators three months conducted pieces of training in Turkey. Already in November, the Technical Director of the Turkish company Baykar Suvunma Selçuk Bayraktar announced that are successfully tested the new Ukrainian engine for the Akinci drone. Strikingly that at the same day when Putin and Erdogan were shaking hands in Sochi, in Kiev the head of the Turkish company Bayraktar Suvunma and the Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky singed the document that envisages close cooperation between the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and Turkish company and the building of the military and drone training center near Kiev.
Particular interest should be paid to the contract which was concluded between Turkey and Poland for purchasing 24 Turkish drones. In Poland, this agreement created a big political scandal because it was considered that Poland is building an alternative system of allianceswithin NATO as an alternative to Berlin and Washington. However, it is a wrong assessment of Polish national interests because the geopolitical situation in Eurasia is pressuring Warsaw for a more realistic assessment of the situation. Turkey and Poland are traditional geopolitical gatekeepers of Russian influence in Europe and the Middle East. Both Ankara and Warsaw determined that their close cooperation is necessary in such turbulent times.
From a Turkish angle, the situation is more than enjoyable. If before, Turkey military corporations operated through the areas where Turkey has deep diplomatic ties, but the contract with the Polish Government considered as genuine recognition of the global quality of Turkish drones and technologies. Furthermore, it was a contract with the NATO member country. If necessary, it is possible to find the unique fact that with such contract Turkey as a Muslim and eastern country concluded a contract with the traditional Western country on delivery of the high-tech military equipment.
However, the suspension of Canadian optics exports to Turkey will not affect the completeness of the new Bayraktar TB2 for Ukraine. If Kiev and Ankara find a way for a joint venture, in the Bayraktar drones will be Ukrainian advanced engines that will put the Turkish drones in the new strategic level both in terms of military and commercial aspects. Ukraine’s engines are able to increase Turkish drones' speed capabilities to a more advanced level than they are now and their prices will be still attractive in the international market. Another country that can be considered as a strategic partner of Turkey is Qatar possession about 16 Turkish drones. In March 2020 Turkey sells to Tunisia six Anka-S drones amid crisis in Idlib. Regarding Baku, it is unclear how many Turkish drones it has but both Azerbaijanian and Turkish sources openly indicating that Turkish drones are there and taking decisive actions against Armenians. Turkish drones did experience some failure in operations in Libya but even so, they were much more effective and cheaper than an aircraft or pilot. Additionally, it should be noted that Turkey reportedly has extended its geography of drone export to the African continent. Recently, was reported that Turkey is negotiating with Morocco and Ethiopia. The export of the armed drones created for Turkey geopolitical risks, in Ukraine in relations with Russia, or a case with Ethiopia with Egypt. Turkey and Egypt are traditional geopolitical regional rivals in the Eastern Mediterranean, Northern Africa, and Near East hence the drones in the army of the potential enemy of Egyptian Armed forces would be considered as a belligerent act by Cairo. For Morocco possession of cutting-edge technologies are able to bring some success against the Polisaro Front in Western Sahara. The Turkish drones are capable to operate in the desert weather (Libya for example) and their possession can seriously harm the insurgence groups in their deep and safe rears. For example, the first time the Moroccan Armed Forces utilized the drone in April 2021 when was killed one of the Polisaroleaders. Nonetheless, it was not mentioned the country of origin of the drone.
Turkey within the last five-six years developed a complicated and sophisticated drone doctrine which was approbated on practice against Kurdish insurgencies, the Russian backed the Syrian Army; in Libya in the desert and enormous areas of Libya, and now finally in the mountainous areas of Nagorno-Karabakh. Until only Turkey developed advanced drone warfare capabilities with an outstanding experience of use of the drone in the different geographical battlefield and against different enemies. The Ukrainians are helping to use the Turkish drones in achieving geopolitical goals in Donbas. On 19 September 2021 Turkish Bayraktar Savunma and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense signed a memorandum on the construction and arrangement of a common training and testing center for maintenance, modernization of UAVs, as well as training of personnel associated with the operation of unmanned aerial vehicles Bayraktar. The centers will be constructed in different regions of Ukraine. Russia is concerned with so close military cooperation between Kiev and Ankara, but Erdogan managed to satisfy Moscow with the policy of “non-proportional” balancing. On one side Erdogan delivers drones to the regime in Kiev, on another hand it developing comprehensive military and economic cooperation with Russia.
Conclusion
The conclusion which we can make is that the drone export and Turkish foreign policy merged into a strategy that is searching the paths that would allow increasing Turkish geopolitical and economic influence at the global and regional level first of all in the Greater Middle East and the areas which before were parts of the Ottoman Empire. I would not call it Neo-Ottomanism. It is primitivization of the existence of the states throughout the centuries, the logic of geopolitics is suggesting that the appearance and rise in the Minor Asia strong state immediately create the geopolitical situation that imamates itself in the neighboring regions. The Northern Black Sea region (Ukraine), Northern Africa, the Persian Gulf, or the Caucasus with the Balkans were part of the geopolitics of Byzantium, not only the Ottoman Empire. For the developing countries, the Turkish drone export is a chance to get access to the cutting-edge military technologies that for centuries were under a total monopoly of the Western countries. Finally, it is possible to conclude that the drone-nonproliferation policy is a dead born initiative due to Turkish or Chinese influence in this sector of the international weapon market.
Turkish Drone Doctrine and Theaters of War in the Greater Middle East | Small Wars Journal by Arizona State University
Turkey has an advantage in drones in the military-technological revolution. It is a short period when one country is gaining an advantage in the technology and new type of warfare hence any nation has limited time for smart use of this advantage and superiority for geopolitical gains. Nieghbors...smallwarsjournal.com
It will be even better. They are faster they can mimic both the RCS and IR signature of an aircraft and they have the ability to destroy their target, unlike crop dusters.So thinking about the Karabakh war, would target drones like Simsek be sufficient to keep enemy air defence busy and to expose their positions, the way Azerbaijan did with their crop dusters?
It will be even better. They are faster they can mimic both the RCS and IR signature of an aircraft and they have the ability to destroy their target, unlike crop dusters.
I think you mean GöksungurThats for the new Simsek aka Gökdogan (I confuse the names) right? but for the old one we have in inventory right now, same story (minus the explosives)?