Is Taiwan Next?

[xizhimen]

But still, the reason to defend Taiwan is to defend democracy from system where you cannot legally change the status quo except with bloody revolution or civil war. You let PRC take Taiwan, then they would get cocky and take anything else because no one stop them.

I guess you know this Taiwan issue is the result of unfinished Chinese civil war, it's the domestic problem of the Chinese nation, foreign countries should stay out of it.

 

[morningstar]

I guess you know this Taiwan issue is the result of unfinished Chinese civil war, it's the domestic problem of the Chinese nation, foreign countries should stay out of it.

Sure. *covertly backed Taiwan*

 

[xizhimen]

Sure. *covertly backed Taiwan*

Then it'll be no problem, I guess China is also "covertly" backing some rebel groups in some countries, my personal guess though. and US , Russia and many other countries do this too, the essence of geopolitics.

 

[Nilgiri]

Surveying the Experts: China's Approach to Taiwan | ChinaPower Project

ChinaPower surveyed dozens of top experts to gain insights into China's approach to Taiwan. Explore the survey results and our analysis here.

chinapower.csis.org

As China’s recent unprecedented military exercises around Taiwan demonstrated, the Taiwan Strait is a major flashpoint that threatens to undermine regional and global stability. Yet crucial questions remain about the dynamics shaping the Taiwan Strait. What is China’s approach to Taiwan and how long is Beijing willing to wait for Taiwan’s unification? Will China use significant military force against Taiwan, and when? How does Beijing view the potential of U.S. intervention in a Taiwan contingency?

To shed light on these questions, ChinaPower polled 64 leading experts on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan, and cross-Strait relations.1 The experts polled include 28 former high-level U.S. government (USG) officials from both Democrat and Republican administrations, as well as 23 former USG policy and intelligence analysts and 13 top experts from academia and think tanks.2 Responses were collected from August 10–September 8, 2022, amid the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.

(More at link)

 

[Paro]

Surveying the Experts: China's Approach to Taiwan | ChinaPower Project

ChinaPower surveyed dozens of top experts to gain insights into China's approach to Taiwan. Explore the survey results and our analysis here.

chinapower.csis.org

As China’s recent unprecedented military exercises around Taiwan demonstrated, the Taiwan Strait is a major flashpoint that threatens to undermine regional and global stability. Yet crucial questions remain about the dynamics shaping the Taiwan Strait. What is China’s approach to Taiwan and how long is Beijing willing to wait for Taiwan’s unification? Will China use significant military force against Taiwan, and when? How does Beijing view the potential of U.S. intervention in a Taiwan contingency?

To shed light on these questions, ChinaPower polled 64 leading experts on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan, and cross-Strait relations.1 The experts polled include 28 former high-level U.S. government (USG) officials from both Democrat and Republican administrations, as well as 23 former USG policy and intelligence analysts and 13 top experts from academia and think tanks.2 Responses were collected from August 10–September 8, 2022, amid the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.

(More at link)

 

[Lordimperator]

China’s plans to annex Taiwan moving ‘much faster’ under Xi, says Blinken

Comments by US secretary of state come after Xi told Communist party Congress Taiwan is core to plans for China’s ‘rejuvenation’

www.theguardian.com

 

[Lordimperator]

US must prepare now for China invasion of Taiwan: admiral | DefenceTalk

The US military must be ready to respond to a potential invasion of Taiwan as soon as this year, a senior admiral said Wednesday, signaling heightened alarm over Beijing's intentions towards the island. Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of US naval operations, is the latest senior official in...

www.defencetalk.com

 

[bisbis]

There are many similarities between the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia war and the Sino-Taiwan tension. especially in the clamor of the western press. China will attack Taiwan. They keep repeating that China will attack Taiwan.

 

[Nilgiri]

 

[Old Codger]

We have to wait and see but in my opinion,if China wants to do it,now is the time.

Agree, the gap between ships and missiles is getting wider by the day, and yes the margin for the PRC will get worse as time passes.

Having said that I still firmly believe that if China did make the move today, they would FAIL.

Paper dragon!

OC

 

[TR_123456]

Agree, the gap between ships and missiles is getting wider by the day, and yes the margin for the PRC will get worse as time passes.

Having said that I still firmly believe that if China did make the move today, they would FAIL.

Paper dragon!

OC

Its not about China,even if China is a ''paper Tiger'' as you claim it to be,Taiwan is no match but what is important is what the US will do.
Its not like the US is a reliable ally when push comes to shove.
Afghanistan,Libya,Syria,Somalia,Bosnia are just some examples.

 

[Old Codger]

On paper they are no match but, it is no good having 5 Million troops, 50,000 tanks, 5000 planes and 500 ships if they cannot get them to the Taiwan coast.

I am also certain that Taiwan can do enough to "decimate" any invasion fleet that sets sail. A tank 200' down in the Taiwan Strait is no threat.

The USA will talk but will not "send in the Marines", but a half dozen 'Virginias' would be handy, and they are probably there as we speak. I am sure Taiwan know that. And Taiwan is keeping the USA happy with substantial arms sales, but the REAL important stuff is her own anti ship Missiles. BETTER than the Harpoon, faster and longer ranged.

I sure hope I live to see all that play out.

OC

 

[Nilgiri]

On paper they are no match but, it is no good having 5 Million troops, 50,000 tanks, 5000 planes and 500 ships if they cannot get them to the Taiwan coast.

I am also certain that Taiwan can do enough to "decimate" any invasion fleet that sets sail. A tank 200' down in the Taiwan Strait is no threat.

The USA will talk but will not "send in the Marines", but a half dozen 'Virginias' would be handy, and they are probably there as we speak. I am sure Taiwan know that. And Taiwan is keeping the USA happy with substantial arms sales, but the REAL important stuff is her own anti ship Missiles. BETTER than the Harpoon, faster and longer ranged.

I sure hope I live to see all that play out.

OC

Will have to do better than a decimation (technically).

A decimation is just 1 in 10.

Taiwan will have to find a way to sense and interdict a large majority of Chinese vessels to make landing attempts as painful as possible.

i.e any landings have to be like Dieppe. PLA cannot be allowed to achieve force concentrations like seen in Overlord.

Taiwan cooperating with USN and JMSDF is key....there is key strategic infrastructure here that Taiwan can tap into.

 

[Old Codger]

Will have to do better than a decimation (technically).

A decimation is just 1 in 10.

Taiwan will have to find a way to sense and interdict a large majority of Chinese vessels to make landing attempts as painful as possible.

i.e any landings have to be like Dieppe. PLA cannot be allowed to achieve force concentrations like seen in Overlord.

Taiwan cooperating with USN and JMSDF is key....there is key strategic infrastructure here that Taiwan can tap into.

I know it is, that is why I put the quotation marks, from our media who love the word.

Taiwan is doing that. It will be as bloody as the PRC feel. The more doubt the less action.

The US and Japan have no role in my assessments, apart from some resupply of weapons. The moment the fleet leaves the harbour(s) it wil be full on. An act of war will have been committed by China and the rules will be out the window.

The Taiwan play book will be 'Overlord' not Dieppe.

OC

 

[Lordimperator]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1610711593519661078

LOL

*Leica in Shandong branch

 

[Old Codger]

"Is Taiwan Next?"

US, Europe, NATO all with their inaction and cowardness, surely encourage China to go ahead and do what they want. All that China face would be condemnation and sanctions.

...and a barrage of supersonic anti ship, supersonic cruise, and hypersonic anti air missiles.

China will not because she cannot, and failure is more than Emporer Xi can gamble.

OC

 

[Gary]

Its not about China,even if China is a ''paper Tiger'' as you claim it to be,Taiwan is no match but what is important is what the US will do.
Its not like the US is a reliable ally when push comes to shove.
Afghanistan,Libya,Syria,Somalia,Bosnia are just some examples.

Exactly,while China is still catching up to the US. The overtly excited will label Chima as "paper tiger" not knowing the effort China has made in the last 3 decades trying to rectify their problems crossing the strait.

This war will neither be China conquer Taiwan in 3 days ,nor it will be Taiwan defeating the invasion fleet in 5 hours. It will be a protracted campaign that could lasts years.

China will want to soften up Taiwan armada of land launched cruise missile and Taiwan will in return do its outmost to prevent or minimize the effect of China doing so.

 

[Gary]

Anyway, a bit of useful statistics if the US navy were to join the fight.

There is some question about how risky PLAN blue-water ops were, or if they were “blue-water” at all. China’s J-15, a reverse-engineered copy of Russia’s Su-33, is marginally larger than the venerable U.S. F/A-18E/F Super Hornet—10 percent longer and wider, with 40 percent more wing area. The J-15’s 20,000 pounds of internal fuel stores purportedly give the J-15 an impressive high-altitude transit range of more than 1,600 nm.4 Assuming low-intensity flight operations relatively close to the carrier, a J-15 theoretically would be able to reach the Chinese mainland from 700 nm if it maintained a 50 percent fuel reserve. J-15s also have demonstrated limited proficiency in air-to-air refueling, using the Russian UPAZ-1A fuel pod for fighter-to-fighter “buddy tanking.”5 The large, center-mounted tanks were not seen in photos or videos of Liaoning flight operations, nor were there any reports of PLA Air Force (PLAAF) H-6 or Y-20 air-to-air tankers from the mainland supporting carrier flight operations.​

​

The PLAN likely pursued cautious, low-intensity flight operations to maximize aircraft fuel reserves for a divert and reduce overall risk to carrier operations. JMSDF photos and PLA video of the deployment showed J-15s either flew “clean,” without any drag-inducing external stores or with a few relatively light air-to-air missiles. No large payloads involving air-to-surface weapons, drop tanks, or pods were noted. Japanese officials reported the Liaoning conducted more than 300 aircraft sorties during the May 2022 deployment.6 Over the 12 days of reported flight ops, that averages to fewer than 20 fighter sorties per day, combined with dozens of helicopter flights throughout the deployment. Chinese military commentators declared this to be a “decent number” of sorties for training.7 For some perspective on those numbers, the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) recently set a record for completing 170 sorties in eight and a half hours of training.8​

​

Lessons from the Changing Geometry of PLA Navy Carrier Ops

China’s improving carrier capabilities are shifting where its navy can operate.

www.usni.org

​

​

@Nilgiri ​

 

[Afif]

WAIT FOR FUJAN.

 

[Old Codger]

Exactly,while China is still catching up to the US. The overtly excited will label Chima as "paper tiger" not knowing the effort China has made in the last 3 decades trying to rectify their problems crossing the strait.

This war will neither be China conquer Taiwan in 3 days ,nor it will be Taiwan defeating the invasion fleet in 5 hours. It will be a protracted campaign that could lasts years.

China will want to soften up Taiwan armada of land launched cruise missile and Taiwan will in return do its outmost to prevent or minimize the effect of China doing so.

It is not what China has done in the last 30 years, it is what she can do TODAY! China cannot guarantee to Emporer Xi that they can sail 100 troopships and 100 supplyships to Taiwan and arrive intact. Eisenhower did but he had 100% domination of the sea and air.

What weapons she has and how good they are is the thing to consider.

An "armada of missiles" will be an outright act of war and it will be full on from then on. Seaborne trade will stop as soon as the insurance companies cancel all the policies. No more minerals from Australia and no more exports to the USA.

The Taiwanese are NOT stupid and they have been digging for 40 years, and all the important stuff is 100s of feet in the rock. The politicians and the generals and the computers are all protected. The planes will be in their caves and the ships nowhere near the ports.

The very key to the defence is the 3 main missiles, Brave Wind, Sky Bow and Yun Feng, and the fact that they are MOBILE, and China cannot kill them if they cannot find them. No bomber, fighter or paratroop transport can hope to outrun the Mach 7 Sky Bow.

The area from the China coast to the beach is the critical killing field in the maybe 10 hours sailing. D-Day WILL be the "longest day", but in April or October.

In fact I will go out and say that Taiwan can do the job on their own!

OC