YeşilVatan
Contributor
That would be true, but you have to consider some other aspects.This isn't a reversible phenomenon, it could be contained and slowed, but history moves in one direction all the time.
It is true that unless you're a Western country, many have yet to pass through all 6 stage of an empire, especially the newly emerged countries after the decolonization of the 20th century, because not all countries are destined to be an empire, some are just there to exist and eventually fade without ever reaching the peak of power. Mind to tell you that I'm not talking only about any country, I'm pointing in fact towards civilizations, civilizations are larger sphere than individual countries. What I'm pointing in particular is the Western civilizations and all of its constituent countries (including non-Whites) like Japan. Yes, Japan is a Western country even though it is not geographically located in Europe or the Americas.
Just like the great Islamic civilizations in the past, there's always one particular polity that towers above the rest, in the golden age of Islam, this is the Caliphate of Ibn Al Abbas and its rival Caliphate of Cordoba. In today's all powerful Western civilizations, its the USA. Once the core eventually rot the rest will soon follow.
We have seen a lot of things that precipitated the fall of past empire coming into an accelerated motion today, such as :
The simple answer when humans are confronted to this problem is, what can we do ? At least for me there's not much we can do, historians could gather all knowledge it has about the dear situations of the civilizations of today but rarely those warning are taken into action by the politicians and citizens of their time, in particular the politicians and masses at the age of decadence, which are frequently greedy and ignorant.
- The growing importance of money and wealth above all
- The rise of women into positions of importance in the state
- Loosening of morality and the acceptance of degeneracy (LGBTQ+, nudity, swearing)
- Rise of fiat money
- Replacement of masculinity with that of feminity, seeing a rise of man singers, man used to be seen as tough and rough, not some melodical individual
I'm willing to say that by the time we reaches the new century (2100), none of today's Western great power like UK, France and Germany will be in the top 6. and By the the time the world reaches 2150, the gravity of civilizations will be borne by Sub-Saharan Africans and Arabs, and not the Arabs like UAE or Saudi (That is if they still exist by the that time), rather its the conflict ridden Arabs as well a sub saharan African states of turmoil of today's time that I predict would come to prominence.
This people has all the characteristics of the men of the age of pioneers:
At some point in time they will have their moment of outburst, while the Western civilizations that somewhat control their country/continent from behind will eventually retreat, back into their continent with an increasingly defensive minded, isolationist population.
- They're poor and hungry
- They're dumb (in an academic sense) but brilliant in survival and out of the book solutions
- They are a patriarchial society
- They're offensive minded
- They are warlike and has a long history of killings
Please note that jihadism and militancy in Africa and the Middle East never really fade away, rather it is in containing mode by the Western powers, made possible by their superiority in technology, know how on combat and their vast expeditionary capabilities, If at one point in time if political turmoil in the continent erupt, or people are increasingly isolationist, it could result in the pulling out of this "barriers' and this militants is all ripe to take over, we have seen for example what the 2011 drawdown of American troops from Iraq resulted in the sudden explosion of ISIS into prominence, nearly capturing Baghdad. We have also seen how French pullout from Mali resulted in AQIM sudden re-emergence just a year after France pulls out.
Overtime this people in the particular area will be more warlike, they're toughened by war, their society has only one job : survival, they don't have the non-sense of feminism, LGBTQ etc because they don't have much option rather than surviving and fight another day. This is the characteristics of the Romans in the early republic, the Arabs in their early consolidation, the Spaniards when they're in the mountains of Northern Spain etc.
1- Nuclear weapons
2- Face recognition technology
3- Drone warfare
4- Automation
Human society is deeply shaped by military technology. Legionary formations gave rise to the vast slaver empire of Rome. Rise of feudalism correlates with knightly way of war which is perfect for oppressing peasants. Pike-and-shot tactics opened the way for mass armies and nation states. Rifles are one of the primary causes of why republics are a thing. Carriers and airpower is the base of Pax Americana.
Sure, decentralized resistance ala Iraq is still a powerful deterrent. Ukrainian experience proved complex technological weapons to be hard to mass produce also. But the technological baseline to set up a mostly automated system that would kill a nascent pioneering empires is here. I'll give you two examples of empires that were killed at their respective inceptions: Third Reich and the Islamic State.
I've been thinking about this a lot. Since I've been exposed to Oswald Spengler's work back in 2013-14. I reached the conclusion that if the world system we have today doesn't falter in a spectacular fashion, maybe through an economic collapse or nuclear war, then the technology is simply so far ahead that pioneering peoples can't simply will to power.
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