Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Ecderha]

ruZZian army made new discovery. They start to use "Cope-Tires" to protect military planes from drones.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698342830047994300cope-tires

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[Gary]

Their GDP will grow a little bit, but is falling behind their rivals, significantly. The Russian deficit is also going to balloon this year. They're expected to spend north of $200 Billion usd this year, after Putin signed a military spending bill of $52 Billion usd for 2023. Combined with significant inflation (the Ruble had been training at upwards of 100 to 1 usd), this prolonged war is going to hurt the Russian people significantly.

Again most of the time this "hope" of Western camps that the Russian economy will collapse has again and again failed to come to fruition.

Over time this sporadic talk about economic collapse just fades and no one is paying attention anymore.

Ukraine matters much less on the world stage than Russia does. Ukraine will, eventually be a member of NATO and the EU. They won't be forced to go at this alone in the post war world. Russia is clinging to its last grasp of world power and deeply cannot afford to lose swaths of its young, productive men.

I don't think so, the prerequisite to joining NATO and the EU is Ukraine must be first at peace. War will not end even if the Russians are pushed back all the way to pre 2014 border.

And looking at the pace of advance, this war will outlast either Putin or Biden, and the world by then will be totally different from the world we saw today. Again just a reminder that the similar but smaller-scale Iran-Iraq war lasted for 8 years, the Ukraine-Russia war should last longer especially when you look at the population of the two.

For Russia imo, the best course of action is simply to carry on war until the geopolitical landscape changes and popular support waned in Washington. If anything to be learned from the war of the last century is the U.S will eventually lose interest. So If the West is clinging to its goal to exhaust Russia, then imo Russia must bet on its ability to outlast the Americans in intent. Just like what the Viet Cong and the Taliban did in their respective war with the Americans. Will war be 10 year, 20, 30, 40 ?

Russia's air force and Navy are not a significant threat to NATO. The American led NATO coalition still rule the Atlantic and northern Pacific. Russia's aircraft technology still remains considerably behind that of NATO and their surface ships are no match for their American adversaries,

This I can agree

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698423442515677540

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698428169638826005

Ukraine’s new Defence Minister Rustem Enver oğlu Umerov has been adviser to former Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People chair Mustafa Dzhemilev. Since December 2020, Umerov has co-chaired the Crimea Platform diplomatic initiative. Umerov helped spearhead the construction of 1,000 apartments for internally-displaced Crimean Tatars and other Ukrainian citizens with Turkish support. In early April 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan agreed to begin building the apartments.

 

[blackjack]

Dont know if you guys heard about it but there was a neonazi rally in Florida but the problem is this.

If you go to Laura Loomers twitter page, she is getting millions of views regarding posts of neonazis getting linked with Ukraine. Bad publicity like this is something Ukraine doesn't need in order to get more support from the west.

 

[Relic]

Again most of the time this "hope" of Western camps that the Russian economy will collapse has again and again failed to come to fruition.

Over time this sporadic talk about economic collapse just fades and no one is paying attention anymore.


I don't think so, the prerequisite to joining NATO and the EU is Ukraine must be first at peace. War will not end even if the Russians are pushed back all the way to pre 2014 border.

And looking at the pace of advance, this war will outlast either Putin or Biden, and the world by then will be totally different from the world we saw today. Again just a reminder that the similar but smaller-scale Iran-Iraq war lasted for 8 years, the Ukraine-Russia war should last longer especially when you look at the population of the two.

For Russia imo, the best course of action is simply to carry on war until the geopolitical landscape changes and popular support waned in Washington. If anything to be learned from the war of the last century is the U.S will eventually lose interest. So If the West is clinging to its goal to exhaust Russia, then imo Russia must bet on its ability to outlast the Americans in intent. Just like what the Viet Cong and the Taliban did in their respective war with the Americans. Will war be 10 year, 20, 30, 40 ?


This I can agree

The "hope" you keep referencing is simply not true. Russia is taking extreme measures right now to keep liquidity within their system and to stop the Ruble from collapsing even further. The Ruble has lost more than 20% of its value vs the USD. Significant inflation is a real problem right now, especially in rural Russia.

Their stock markets are unusable right now for foreigners, because you can't withdraw any equity from them if you're not Russian. Foreign investment in Russia, especially Western investment is falling off a cliff.

Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska warned this month that Russia is running out of cash. “There will be no money next year, we need foreign investors,” the raw-materials magnate said at an economic conference.

Russia’s economy is entering a long-term regression,” predicted Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian Central Bank official who left the country shortly after the invasion.

We’ll be increasing our debt, this is a hopeless situation. We will have to do this because our expenditure side is growing,” deputy finance minister Irina Okladnikova said last month. The plan is to stay within the “safe limit” of 20% of GDP, she added.

Russia is on pace to spend roughly $180 Billion usd on its military this year, after aloting $52 billion usd for this year's military spending. Being $130 billion over budget, for a country with an economy as small of Russia's, is sustainable for a year or maybe even two, but eventually the combination of sanctions and significant overspending are going to cause a need for significant austerity measures in order to continuing to fund the war. That means money will be stripped from their school system, medical system and infrastructure plans, all to fund the war... Those decisions will lead to the slow (and eventually much faster) collapse of Russia as it relates to it's current living conditions.

Finally, an extremely underrated problem Russia is facing is emigration. Since the beginning of the war between 600,000-1,000,000 Russian citizens have fled Russia to avoid being draft eligible, or simply because they disagree with the war. What's important, however, is who is leaving. It's the young and middle aged, working Russians with money. Members of their middle and upper middle class, that form the core of the tax base. Instead, they're spending money abroad, instead of at home in Russia.

Financial problems in Russia are coming. It takes time for things to get really bad, but it always happens slow at first, before making a significant impact that is hard to overcome.

Why are people leaving Russia, who are they, and where are they going?

A trickle of Russians leaving became a stream after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine of 2022.

www.google.com

Russia’s Economy Is Starting to Come Undone

Investment is down, labor is scarce, budget is squeezed. Oligarch: ‘There will be no money next year’

www.wsj.com

Why are people leaving Russia, who are they, and where are they going?

A trickle of Russians leaving became a stream after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine of 2022.

www.google.com

 

[Relic]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698423442515677540

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698428169638826005

Ukraine’s new Defence Minister Rustem Enver oğlu Umerov has been adviser to former Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People chair Mustafa Dzhemilev. Since December 2020, Umerov has co-chaired the Crimea Platform diplomatic initiative. Umerov helped spearhead the construction of 1,000 apartments for internally-displaced Crimean Tatars and other Ukrainian citizens with Turkish support. In early April 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan agreed to begin building the apartments.

I hope he does a wonderful job of procuring military help from the West for his country!

 

[Afif]

Russia has deployed highly advance tactical defence system to protect its bomber fleet from drone attacks.

Russia covered the wings of its Tu-95 bombers with car tires​

Russia covered the wings of its Tu-95 bombers with car tires

Russia safeguarded a Tu-95 bomber by car tires. These tires are positioned along the entire length of both wings and a small segment of the upper fuselage.

bulgarianmilitary.com

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698685989441409457

 

[Ecderha]

ruzzian KA-52 fleet back in May 2022.
Soon every KA-52 will be spare parts or crashing
Junks, non stop out of sync parts, non stop vibrations

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698689893612888260

since 2022 to present day there are confirmed 37 Ka-52 destroyed from 127 Ka-52 which are active Total numbers ( available for ruzzian army).
One important note nobody ruzzian or Ukraine report or add to the list helicopters which were NOT shoot down.
For example if Ka-52 was down because of Fog or Grid power lines, or malfunction...... All this kind of losses are not counted

So in conclusion ruzzia lost more than 37 KA-52 already

 

[blackjack]

Some information on the T-90Ms.

Вопрос о производстве танков в России в 2023 году

Как сообщила газета Ведомости в материале Алексея Никольского и Ильи Лакстыгала Вооруженные силы получат 1500 танков в 2023 году. В это число войдут и модернизированные машины, снятые с хранения, заместитель председателя Совета безопасности России Дмитрий Медведев стал…

bmpd-livejournal-com.translate.goog

As the Vedomosti newspaper reported in an article by Alexei Nikolsky and Ilya Lakstygal, “The armed forces will receive 1,500 tanks in 2023. This number will also include modernized vehicles removed from storage,” Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev became the first leader since the beginning of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine to name the annual production of one of the main types of combat platforms actively used in hostilities - the main battle tanks.

According to a source close to the Ministry of Defense, it is indeed planned to produce several hundred new T-90M and T-14 tanks, and most of the rest will be modernized T-72 and T-80 tanks taken from military equipment storage bases. A number of older T-62 tanks will also be upgraded. In the fall of 2022, visiting the 103rd armored repair plant in Chita, State Duma deputy Andrey Gurulyov said that the company had a contract for the modernization of 400 T-62s. In the 80s. Soviet factories produced more than 2,000 new tanks a year. Only "Uralvagonzavod" (UVZ) in 1985, at its peak, according to the book "T-72 / T-90. Experience in creating domestic main battle tanks”, produced 1559 T-72 tanks. In the post-Soviet period, the maximum rate of production of T-90 tanks was achieved in the 2000s.

From the bmpd side, we indicatethat the data that the notorious “1500 tanks” will be mostly non-new production vehicles was actually confirmed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who, in an interview with Russian television on March 25, said: “[Western] arsonists plan to send 420-440 tanks to Ukraine. During this time, we will produce new ones and modernize over 1,600 existing ones. The total number of Russian tanks will exceed three times the number of tanks in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Even more than three times.”

Interesting find by Viktor Murakhovsky
Виктор Мураховский
New rocket? The picture shows a T-90M tank firing in the Seversky direction. The second picture shows a frame from the commander's video viewing device. The fire is conducted by a guided missile (letter "U", marked), its tracer is visible above the aiming line (marked), at a distance of 6830 meters (marked). It is known that the missile "Invar-M" has a range of 5000 meters.

As far as what is known the optics on the T-90M and whatever ATGM they used allowed the tank to hit a target from 6,830 meters. The Sprinter ATGM on the T-14 is estimated at 8km to 12km ranges, as I am making this post I asked Russia defense net users where the hell they got 20km estimated ranges.

The Svinets offered like 700-800mm depth penetrations while the Vacuum rounds based on the T-14 offered 1000mm penetration. I am assuming the diet Vacuum is estimated to have the same penetration capabilities to be fitted on those autoloaders. Overall its a great idea to sort of get a glimpse of the tank's capability with their production numbers in the battlefield. Assuming maybe there will be bigger production in 2024 since the current production by the end of 2023 suggest there is still a shitload of them.

 

[Relic]

Some information on the T-90Ms.

Вопрос о производстве танков в России в 2023 году

Как сообщила газета Ведомости в материале Алексея Никольского и Ильи Лакстыгала Вооруженные силы получат 1500 танков в 2023 году. В это число войдут и модернизированные машины, снятые с хранения, заместитель председателя Совета безопасности России Дмитрий Медведев стал…

bmpd-livejournal-com.translate.goog

As the Vedomosti newspaper reported in an article by Alexei Nikolsky and Ilya Lakstygal, “The armed forces will receive 1,500 tanks in 2023. This number will also include modernized vehicles removed from storage,” Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev became the first leader since the beginning of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine to name the annual production of one of the main types of combat platforms actively used in hostilities - the main battle tanks.

According to a source close to the Ministry of Defense, it is indeed planned to produce several hundred new T-90M and T-14 tanks, and most of the rest will be modernized T-72 and T-80 tanks taken from military equipment storage bases. A number of older T-62 tanks will also be upgraded. In the fall of 2022, visiting the 103rd armored repair plant in Chita, State Duma deputy Andrey Gurulyov said that the company had a contract for the modernization of 400 T-62s. In the 80s. Soviet factories produced more than 2,000 new tanks a year. Only "Uralvagonzavod" (UVZ) in 1985, at its peak, according to the book "T-72 / T-90. Experience in creating domestic main battle tanks”, produced 1559 T-72 tanks. In the post-Soviet period, the maximum rate of production of T-90 tanks was achieved in the 2000s.

From the bmpd side, we indicatethat the data that the notorious “1500 tanks” will be mostly non-new production vehicles was actually confirmed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who, in an interview with Russian television on March 25, said: “[Western] arsonists plan to send 420-440 tanks to Ukraine. During this time, we will produce new ones and modernize over 1,600 existing ones. The total number of Russian tanks will exceed three times the number of tanks in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Even more than three times.”

Interesting find by Viktor Murakhovsky
Виктор Мураховский
New rocket? The picture shows a T-90M tank firing in the Seversky direction. The second picture shows a frame from the commander's video viewing device. The fire is conducted by a guided missile (letter "U", marked), its tracer is visible above the aiming line (marked), at a distance of 6830 meters (marked). It is known that the missile "Invar-M" has a range of 5000 meters.

View attachment 60792
View attachment 60793
As far as what is known the optics on the T-90M and whatever ATGM they used allowed the tank to hit a target from 6,830 meters. The Sprinter ATGM on the T-14 is estimated at 8km to 12km ranges, as I am making this post I asked Russia defense net users where the hell they got 20km estimated ranges.

View attachment 60794
The Svinets offered like 700-800mm depth penetrations while the Vacuum rounds based on the T-14 offered 1000mm penetration. I am assuming the diet Vacuum is estimated to have the same penetration capabilities to be fitted on those autoloaders. Overall its a great idea to sort of get a glimpse of the tank's capability with their production numbers in the battlefield. Assuming maybe there will be bigger production in 2024 since the current production by the end of 2023 suggest there is still a shitload of ththem.

"The armed forces will receive 1,500 tanks in 2023. This number will also include modernized vehicles removed from storage,"

I'd be willing to bet significant money that Russia comes nowhere close to producing / refurbishing 1500 mbts in 2023. The year is more than half over and there is no reputable indication that Russia has introduced anywhere close to that number into their military. If they manage 1/3 of that (500) I'd consider that a to be a significant win for Russian industry.

As with most crap that the Russian state spews, take their numbers with a substantial grain of salt. I have little doubt that the Russians will be able to produce / refurbish 1500 MBTs EVENTUALLY, but not not anywhere close to as fast as they claim. This is typical Russian exaggeration, not unlike when that make wild claims about destroying vast swaths of Ukrainian military equipment, only for us to find out that it's a minimal amount compared to their claim.

 

[Ecderha]

Newest ruzzian BMP-3
As world already know nothing new, it is the same junk

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698540658582065297

 

[blackjack]

"The armed forces will receive 1,500 tanks in 2023. This number will also include modernized vehicles removed from storage,"

I'd be willing to bet significant money that Russia comes nowhere close to producing / refurbishing 1500 mbts in 2023. The year is more than half over and there is no reputable indication that Russia has introduced anywhere close to that number into their military. If they manage 1/3 of that (500) I'd consider that a to be a significant win for Russian industry.

As with most crap that the Russian state spews, take their numbers with a substantial grain of salt. I have little doubt that the Russians will be able to produce / refurbish 1500 MBTs EVENTUALLY, but not not anywhere close to as fast as they claim. This is typical Russian exaggeration, not unlike when that make wild claims about destroying vast swaths of Ukrainian military equipment, only for us to find out that it's a minimal amount compared to their claim.

I think sanctions work backwards because somehow, they are ranked 5th place in (PPP) and looking at Tams posts at sino defense forum and Jaguarwarriors posts in india defense forum its like when will Ukraine ever beat Russia in showing more destroyed armored vehicles when the majority of best shit from Russia has yet to come.

 

[UkroTurk]

Ukrainian tanks use Iranian ammunition

Transport container for ammunition 3BK18M of Iranian production. Photo: War Noir.

It is reported that this is not the first case when Iranian weapons enter Ukraine: earlier, artillery ammunition of 122-mm and 152-mm caliber, as well as 122-mm rockets for MLRS were seen in the use of the Defense Forces.



"The source of supplies of Iranian products is unknown, however, the ammunition was often manufactured in 2022-2023, which may indicate that they did not come from old stocks, but directly from the manufacturer through third countries," the report says.

 

[blackjack]

I dont think Ukraine is Poland or Israel tier in regard to they get the best equipment from the U.S. So what block F-16s and what M1a2 variants they will get will be interesting. Will they get the block F-16s with pulse doppler radars and Aim-120As that they dont give a shit about ukraine, will they give F-16 blocks with AESA radars and Aim-120Bs that they sort of give a shit about Ukraine or will they get F-16s with SABR radars and aim-120C and Ds that they really do give a shit about Ukraine. Will they get baseline M1a2s, M1a2 SEPs with the most armoured protection of 940-960mm in turret against KEP rounds where they dont give a shit about Ukraine. SEPv2s where they sort of give a shit about Ukraine, or SEPv3s and SEPv4s where they really do give a shit about Ukraine since it offers more armoured protection with Trophy APS against pesky ATGMs and 3rd gen FLIR 2.6 times 8= 20.8km range to identify targets

 

[Relic]

I dont think Ukraine is Poland or Israel tier in regard to they get the best equipment from the U.S. So what block F-16s and what M1a2 variants they will get will be interesting. Will they get the block F-16s with pulse doppler radars and Aim-120As that they dont give a shit about ukraine, will they give F-16 blocks with AESA radars and Aim-120Bs that they sort of give a shit about Ukraine or will they get F-16s with SABR radars and aim-120C and Ds that they really do give a shit about Ukraine. Will they get baseline M1a2s, M1a2 SEPs with the most armoured protection of 940-960mm in turret against KEP rounds where they dont give a shit about Ukraine. SEPv2s where they sort of give a shit about Ukraine, or SEPv3s and SEPv4s where they really do give a shit about Ukraine since it offers more armoured protection with Trophy APS against pesky ATGMs and 3rd gen FLIR 2.6 times 8= 20.8km range to identify targets

This is a silly notion. The West is not going to send their top of the line anything to Ukraine, so that Russia can better / fully understand the capabilities of those weapons. That has nothing to do with "not caring" about Ukraine. That's all about geostrategic decisions. By the way, those same decisions are made domestically all the time as well. Why do you think it is that when Russia sends bombers over the
Bearing Strait to test NORAD response, we scramble F-15s and F-18s to intercept the bombers and escort them on their way, rather than scrambling F-22s out of Elmendorf?... Because we don't want Russia knowing more than have to know about our best kit.

Ukraine getting a lot of second hand equipment and stuff that is less than "the best" has nothing to do with us not valuing them as people. We have our own security to be concerned about.

 

[Relic]

First loss of a Challenger 2 MBT in combat! Another reminder that nothing is invincible in war and that we have to keep the influx of weapons for Ukraine up, because losses are inevitable! Britain has a couple hundred more Challenger 2 and doesn't plan to upgrade them all to Challenger 3. Hopefully they're willing to send some more as attrition takes place!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698866883628310698

 

[blackjack]

video of it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698874543090335841

leopards and challengers got baptized, abrams has a good chance as well because tonnage on the challenger 2 suggests it is quite a heavily armored tank. Wonder what hit it.

supposed Armour protection.

 

[blackjack]

I know its a pro-ukraine thread, but here is some good information on how much Russia uses its drones on Ukraine with visual evidence. https://lostarmour.info/tags/fpv

how much armored vehicles in Ukraine destroyed with visual evidence https://lostarmour-info.translate.goog/armour?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698840251546943516