It is necessary to discuss not the number of aircraft, but the fleet size, organization and combat structure of the air force. It is a fact that the fleet structure has undergone significant changes due to the long delay of the JSF project and some squadrons have been inactivated. Of course, there are other details, especially in relation to the F-4 crash news in past... In the end, as if all these problems were not enough, the F-35 planning had to be completely scrapped.
While the Turkish air force traditionally constitutes the eastern wing of NATO, in terms of national defense, the basic doctrine of the armed forces is based on the ability to sustain an all out war against two countries simultaneously. So yes, we really need a very serious number of combat aircraft, unless we downsize. This is a transitional period in which many political mistakes have been made too and I don't think there is a correct reference to either the past or the future.
If you add the recently inactivated F-4 squadrons to the recent geopolitical developments and risks in the Turkish sphere of influence, I am of the opinion that the Air Force is aiming to have 17-18 or up to 20 combatant (+ combat reconnaissance) squadrons, and even more when indigenous platforms enter mass production. Traditionally, we tend to assume the size of combat squadrons in the Turkish Air Force to be around 20 aircraft kept in combat readiness, but in many cases it can be higher than that. These two basic assuming can also give an approximate, rough idea about potential number of platforms.
I should also add as a note that a new era is about to begin in Turkish aviation. Naval combat aviation. I think everyone agrees that this tendency of the Navy is very obvious. In the next 20 years, this breakthrough on Navy may take the balance-changing effect of national combatant platforms to another level.
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