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Putin Is Running Out of Time to Achieve Breakthrough in Ukraine
Russia made limited progress with Ukraine short on weapons
Ukraine halts Russian attack as billions in arms start flowing
For months, Russia’s army has made only limited gains on the battlefield against Ukrainian troops starved of weapons and ammunition. That’s a growing challenge for President Vladimir Putin as his military’s advantage starts to erode.
With Kyiv now taking delivery of billions of dollars in fresh arms from its US and European allies, the window for a Russian breakthrough is narrowing even as it continues to fire missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities including energy infrastructure.
A Russian attempt to open a new front in Ukraine’s northeast Kharkiv region already appears bogged down without achieving Putin’s goal of creating a buffer zone along the border. Ukraine claims to be inflicting “very high losses” on Russian troops in battles around the town of Vovchansk.
Russia’s strategy of attrition to exhaust Ukraine’s forces is “very expensive and bloody for the Russian army itself,” said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “It can lead to excessive exhaustion of forces on the Russian side, which in turn, gives Ukrainians a chance to counter attack.”
While the policy avoids social tensions inside Russia over the war, it’s unlikely to allow the army to amass enough troops for a successful offensive in Ukraine, according to Pukhov, the Moscow-based military analyst. “For a real breakthrough the Kremlin would need far more people,” he said.
Putin said in December that Russia had 617,000 troops deployed in Ukraine. At a meeting with foreign media in St. Petersburg late Wednesday, he appeared to imply that some 10,000 Russian troops a month were being killed or wounded, by claiming the total was five times lower than Ukrainian losses he put at 50,000.
Ukraine rejects such estimates of its casualties. Zelenskiy said in February his military had lost 31,000 soldiers since the start of the war.
Russia hasn’t translated its battlefield advantages into major gains because its commanders “waste manpower in pursuit of their goals and Ukrainian forces are effective on the defense when they are supplied with men and materiel,” said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “There are still meaningful limits to Russian military power.”
Russia made limited progress with Ukraine short on weaponsUkraine halts Russian attack as billions in arms start flowingFor months, Russia’s army has made only limited gains on the battlefield against Ukrainian troops starved of weapons and ammunition. That’s a growing challenge for President Vladimir Putin as his military’s advantage starts to erode.
With Kyiv now taking delivery of billions of dollars in fresh arms from its US and European allies, the window for a Russian breakthrough is narrowing even as it continues to fire missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities including energy infrastructure.
A Russian attempt to open a new front in Ukraine’s northeast Kharkiv region already appears bogged down without achieving Putin’s goal of creating a buffer zone along the border. Ukraine claims to be inflicting “very high losses” on Russian troops in battles around the town of Vovchansk.
Russia’s strategy of attrition to exhaust Ukraine’s forces is “very expensive and bloody for the Russian army itself,” said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “It can lead to excessive exhaustion of forces on the Russian side, which in turn, gives Ukrainians a chance to counter attack.”
While the policy avoids social tensions inside Russia over the war, it’s unlikely to allow the army to amass enough troops for a successful offensive in Ukraine, according to Pukhov, the Moscow-based military analyst. “For a real breakthrough the Kremlin would need far more people,” he said.
Putin said in December that Russia had 617,000 troops deployed in Ukraine. At a meeting with foreign media in St. Petersburg late Wednesday, he appeared to imply that some 10,000 Russian troops a month were being killed or wounded, by claiming the total was five times lower than Ukrainian losses he put at 50,000.
Ukraine rejects such estimates of its casualties. Zelenskiy said in February his military had lost 31,000 soldiers since the start of the war.
Russia hasn’t translated its battlefield advantages into major gains because its commanders “waste manpower in pursuit of their goals and Ukrainian forces are effective on the defense when they are supplied with men and materiel,” said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “There are still meaningful limits to Russian military power.”
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