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Interesting stuff, thx! This also might explain why they couldn't do much:So, when Hassina hold the first fake election in 2014, there was intense protest organized by the main political opposition that lasted several months and killed hundreds. (Basically government killed them) However, she successfully put that down, and then she started to systemically supress and prosecute her main political opposition. With forced disappearance, extra judicial killing by a completely politicized police force, Judicial murder by loyalist judges, and politically motivated mass arrest in tens of thousands. I mean just after this revolution now we learned that government had some 4 millions ongoing cases against opposition leaders and members at all echolens. You can see how insane the scale of oppression was. For years, she completely crippled the main opposition that when she held another sham election in 2018, it was almost totally peaceful because simply there was no one left to challenge her.
At the same time after 2014, the mass corruption and mismanagement started to skyrocket. Because she and her party knew there was simply no one to hold them accountable as they made sure there won't be another free and fair election ever. And the complete destruction of state institutions continued. Her main muscle was police and the 'students' wing of her party. Who were basically thugs, killer and terrorist that ran every crime Syndicate along with police.
I mean Bangladesh was a poor third world country, but still, there were some basic norms and lines that even bad people wouldn't cross before.
But she and her party had no restrain whatsoever. Bangladesh actually regressed significantly during her reign. Whatever economic progress BD has made in the last 15 years is despite of her because of hardworking people of Bangladesh. Not the other way around.
Due to mass incompetence and missmanagement, the road safety in BD deteriorated significantly. Actually it was never that great. So, there was lots of deadly accidents happening. In 2018 After some students died in one of such accident, students at schools, colleges and universities started to protest for better raod safety. That was the first someone outside traditional political opposition organized and sustained a large scale protest. And then it didn't stop there, students started to protest against government qouta system. following nationwide protests against this quota system, a government circular cancelled the quota system for first- and second-class jobs.
What’s Behind Bangladesh’s Student Protests?
Bangladesh’s streets have again erupted with political violence. In early July, a university student protest began over Bangladesh's job quota system that disproportionately benefits the descendants of Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation war fighters, which many students view as unfair and outdated...www.usip.org
Now five years after all this, in 2024 she staged another fake election without the participation of the main opposition. It gone totally her way, she looked stronger than ever. But underneath there was already serious problems waiting to blow up. Economy was continuesly deteriorating for last 2 years. Every step and policy decision taken at the high level to tackle the problem was failing. And why wouldn't it? There was corruption, money laundering and the theft of public resources everywhere at a mass scale for years. People were angry. They had no right, no prosperity and everything was going to sh*t.
So why there wasn't any popular mass uprising already? Because she and her party stablished a resign of terror. And the main opposition who could potentially organize the public has practically gone extinct. Unorganized and on their own average Joe didn't want to risk his very life without any meaningful outcome. As I said she looked mighty and unbeatable.
Now what's so different happened in 2024 July?
On June 5, 2024, the High Court ruled on a writ petition filed by the descendant of a freedom fighter and six others. The HC said the 2018 circular was illegal, meaning quotas were re-established in government recruitment once more.
Now students started to protest again, although on a much smaller scale at the beginning. Government thought, not a big deal. What a bunch of college kids are gonna do against the state? Wiki provides a great summery. If you have time, you should read the timeline section.
2024 Bangladesh quota reform movement - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
So, at first they basically tried to manhandle the protesters. But it backfired and protest grew significantly largers. So, they tried their old technique. Kill couple of hundreds protesters and you will put it down. Except it didn't work. This technique, excessive use of force always worked with traditional political opponents. But when young students were killed by the police and BAL party thugs, it crossed all lines. The evil unleashed on the political opponents was no way justifiable, but public would kind of 'get' it. I mean, politics in Bangladesh was always about blood and vengeance. (Although not the scale that Hassian introduced) But when young students lied dead on the streets, killed brutally, it backfired even more.
Government realized what's going on and they got bit afraid. Supreme court immediately cancelled the qouta and government imposed a nation wide cerfew and stopped the internet for almost a week. And apperantly, it worked. Protesters gone to their home and some brief illusion of normalcy was felt. But then after the cerfew was lifted and internet came back, students started a new protest demanding justice for their slain brothers, and rightfully so. Then police anducted the students leaders of the protest movement and forced them to issue a statement declaring the end of the movement. And guess what happened? It backfired again. Protest started to gain intensity and public start to join in with the students. First their parents and families and then, others. And police brutality and indiscriminate killing continued. Finally, government fully realized the scale of the problem. Reportedly, Hassina decided to give in at students 9 demand (at least partially) and several ministers were to resign.
In response to the violent protests involving members of the Chhatra League and police forces, the Anti-discrimination Students' Movement issued a revised nine-point demand. The demands include:
- Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina should publicly apologize, and take responsibility for the deaths of students during the protests.[83]
- Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan and Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader should resign from their cabinet positions and party roles for their alleged roles in using law enforcement and Chhatra League to carry out violence against the protesters.[151]
- Deputy inspectors general of police, police commissioners, and superintendents of police in the areas where student casualties occurred must be dismissed from their posts.
- The vice-chancellors and proctors of Dhaka University, Jahangirnagar University, and Rajshahi University must resign due to their inadequate response to the violence against students.
- There should be a nationwide ban on the Chhatra League's student wing in all educational institutions in Bangladesh.[152]
- Policemen, law enforcement officers, army/military officials and any individuals involved in the attacks should be arrested and held accountable according to the laws.[153]
- Financial compensation should be provided to the families of students who were killed or injured during the protests.
- All educational institutions and student residential halls should be reopened immediately.
- Law enforcement officers, including armed forces and other security personnel, should be withdrawn from all educational institutions to ensure a peaceful environment.
Except, it was too little too late, again. Students change it to one point demand/the end game. Of course now government won't step down. So, they responded with everything they got. As result, On 3rd and 4th August hundreds were killed in this second round of protest. Army was on the streets. And there was significant tension in its ranks as they were witnessing government brutality against its own people. Now, why army wasn't politicized the same way as police was? Well, the army is the single most powerful institution that state has. It is very much away from everyday politics. With its strong institutional inertia it somehow managed to survive to an extent. Given the scale of cernage, army chief of stuff fearing coup, as well as from his own moral code, ordered all divisional commanders not to fire on students/people to imposed the newly declared curfew on 4th August night. Next day on 5th August, protesters came out in the streets in hundreds of thousands defying the curfew and broke through the police resistance, in the end we had our second liberation.
On the morning of 5 August, all senior officials, including Harun, assembled at the Central Command and Control Unit on Abdul Gani Road, across from the Secretariat in the capital.
From there, police on duty in the streets were instructed to use increased force based on the surveillance from hundreds of closed-circuit cameras throughout the city.
According to some policemen present that day, Harun appeared very confident and said that 5 August would mark the end of the students' protests.
Even as thousands of protesters breached the barricades at Uttara and advanced towards Shaheed Minar, police were ordered to use force to stop them.
Harun reportedly contacted Uttara's Deputy Commissioner of Police, instructing him to fire repeatedly to disperse the demonstrators, according to the police officials.
However, the Deputy Police Commissioner of Uttara division reportedly said that there were at least 25,000 people on the streets, making it impossible for a small number of officers to control the situation by shooting.
Despite this, senior police officials, including Harun, pressured the police to use force, officials present there at the time said.
Later, when the protesters advanced past Khilkhet towards Banani, orders were given for police APCs to open fire. However, officers in Banani and Gulshan reportedly refused to comply with these orders.
At around 2:30pm, as the crowd moved towards the Prime Minister's Office from Jahangir Gate, orders to open fire were issued despite the chaotic situation. However, the responsible officers reportedly said that the situation was beyond control.
Meanwhile, when news spread that the Army Chief would give a speech at noon, Harun's confidence grew.
He assured the subordinate officers at the Central Command and Control Unit on Abdul Gani Road that the army would take decisive action and restore order, telling them not to worry, police personnel present at the scene said.
They also reported that when the subordinate officers mentioned that the army would not use force, Harun became enraged.
Eventually, as the crowd breached the Gonobhaban, he was reportedly seen giving orders to the officers in the Gonobhaban Protection Division to take repeated action via walkie-talkie. However, no response came from the other end.
Meanwhile, the crowd continued to enter Ganabhaban.
Seeing this unfold on the closed-circuit camera, Harun slumped into a chair from his standing position. After that, he remained silent and motionless, officials present at the scene said.
Where is DB Harun?
Like several senior police officials closely affiliated with the Hasina government, he has been absent from the public eye since the fall of the government due to the mass uprising on 5 Augustwww.tbsnews.net
Bottom line is, even if you could isolate and disperse 500k protesters in hundreds of small groups, it still gonna be several thousands in each one. With several dozens police, there is no way to stop them without use lethal force. Even that couldn't stop the protesters. On the liberation day police killed hundred or more.
And as you suggested, from the early morning that day, they did try to stop the gathering of multiple persons. It worked in my area. Not so much in other places. Also, in residential areas people may throw stuff on your head. Not ideal for police to stand still and block the road.
Heavy armed present couldn't do sh*t. As I said, it wasn't just another big protest. It was a revolution.
Complete remaking of the whole system. And the work in this regard has started with a highly competent and trusted interim government.
@Sanchez @Kartal1 @TR_123456 @Saithan @Bogeyman et al.
For anyone wanting to become a successful dictator one day, I advise you first increase the number of police and raise their pay, blend and fuse the security forces with the army chain of command, then make that army chain of command dependent upon yourself by making military promotion depend on your political will, and also create an informal paramilitary group which only answers to you but also is inside the chain of command formally, and constantly make sure the populace sees the military as an arm of the government in subservience to you and not some independent force, hence tying any antagonism created towards you by the populace to the army as well, binding them to your fate. This can be done in myriad of symbolic ways esp. in parades, ceremonies, purges from time to time and generous and lavish bonuses. Also ideologically the army should be a part of the clearly defined "us vs them" and indoctrination in military academies should instill this "us vs them" attitude which should be signalled to utilize in promotions, being used as an in-group identification tool.
I guess Bangladesh didn't have these
.I like that you're optimistic, but if the army has let Hasina fall and the protests succeed, it must be because they don't see themselves and their power base being challenged and that they were not intertwined with Hasina's web of corruption or if they were, they kept most of the web, meanwhile throwing away Hasina as the scapegoat. If the latter is true, then they will not let any meaningful reforms take place, but in the case of the former one must be diligent for them not to use this opportunity of the political opening to insert themselves into the political discussion. That is almost impossible; it takes a very savvy, experienced and well-intentioned politician (a black swan) or a group of politicians or political actors to walk that fine line of not pissing them off, but also keep the structure in which they were not involved in the economic apparatus of the state intact. Good luck!
