Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[SilverMachine]

I have to admit, I'm also not particularly confident about a Ukrainian victory. You can talk about Kursk all you like but it doesn't change the fact that Russia started making pretty major gains in Ukraine once this operation got underway which leads me to suspect that Ukraine diverted a substantial amount of its forces that were defending the country for the invasion of Russia and no longer has enough to hold back the Russian advance.

People also need to remember that Russians generally don't give a crap about their territory. The reason they like having such a big amount of land despite not enough people to populate it and most of it being fairly underdeveloped is because it fits perfectly with the Russian strategy of defense in depth. To put it another way for the US to lose even one state to enemy action, even one as worthless as, say, Oregon would be a major catastrophe. But for Russia Kursk is mostly nothing. It could be a problem if Ukraine pushes deep enough south to flank the Russian forces occupying Ukraine and prevent them from being resupplied but it doesn't seem thus far like they have enough gas to make it happen.

Basically, Ukraine's strategy in Russia has multiple options:

1) Capture territory in the hopes of a stronger negotiating hand against Russia. Not really working all that well and Russia isn't falling for it.

2) Pivot down south in order to cut off Russian reinforcements. Again Russia seems to have anticipated that and this area is their main focus.

3) Attempt to sabotage enough of Russia's mission-critical infrastructure in order to hinder their war effort but as I said before, it doesn't seem like Ukraine has enough fuel in the tank to pull that off.

And to make it worse it doesn't look like even the Ukrainians themselves know what their actual objectives in Russia are. If I had to hazard a guess the initial idea was to prove to the Western powers, particularly the US, that Ukraine can still put up a fight and Russia is cowardly enough that there is no risk of escalation if NATO were to get involved a bit more seriously and provide more weapons and munitions to Ukraine but that didn't work - so now Ukraine is left wondering what now?

I want Ukraine to win from both a moral and self-interested perspective. I just don't see how anymore and I really hope the rest of the ex-USSR nations are paying attention and preparing themselves for the fallout.

This guy gets it.

 

[contricusc]

Yes the longer the war drags on the more impact it has on Russia also and the more it hurts Russia also, but at what cost.

You maybe don't realize that Europe or USA don't give a cr*p about Ukraine or its people, their whole purpose and goal is to hurt Russia as long as possible and as much as possible, but its Ukraine who is suffering the most in this.

What you completely dismiss here is Ukrainians’ will to revenge. At this point, after all the suffering, I bet most Ukrainians are more interested in punishing Russia than saving their country. They will want to inflict more damage to Russia than what Russia did to them, in order to punish it for the aggression. This is why there is no way out of this war other than a Russian defeat.

Ukraine is in a position where it feels that it has nothing left to lose (the country was already ruined), but it has a lot to gain (destroying Russia), so continuing the war is the only way forward. It is Russia that should try to negotiate for peace, because Russia is the one that still has a lot more to lose.

 

[SilverMachine]

"What you completely dismiss here is Ukrainians’ will to revenge. At this point, after all the suffering, I bet most Ukrainians are more interested in punishing Russia than saving their country. They will want to inflict more damage to Russia than what Russia did to them, in order to punish it for the aggression. This is why there is no way out of this war other than a Russian defeat."


This is yet another reason the west shouldn't just be all "derpy derp derp, give the Ukrainians all the best long-range stuff and let Zelenskyy completely off the leash to do whatever he wants! Good times derpy derp derp". Of fucking course the Ukrainians are out for blood, it's beyond understandable. It's also not a smart macro policy to take - this thing's about doing whatever you can to stop Russia gaining any further territory, and, (optimistically/unrealistically) going home for the most part. It's not about greenlighting Wunderwaffe strikes deep into the heart of Russia to "punish" them. Keep in mind, Zelenskyy's not going to be in power forever - he's going to have to cave and hold an election sooner or later - and there's no guarantee the next guy's going to be as decent a person. Suddenly you've got one of the most corrupt states in Europe with a shitload of A-grade long-range western gear headed by some Ukrainian-Kadyrov or whatever, intent on fucking up Moscow even after the admin preceding him has agreed on terms to end the war. It's a risk the west's smart not to take.

There's a balance here. Yes, you want to give the Ukrainians what they feasibly need to create a buffer zone making it harder for Russia to hit them. No more than that, though - the notion that "we're trying to avoid this spiralling into something bigger" has just gone out the window by now is silly. That doesn't just apply to 2022, that's still the case now. You don't seem to get how much worse this thing can become if we let it - HIMARS and Storm Shadows killing Russians is a crazy-ass situation we find ourselves in, now, in and of itself. Nobody needs some AFU General or whatever gaining more support with the public than Zelenskyy has, finding himself in power, and deciding he's going to rain hellfire down on St Petersburg because A) "Fuck Russia/Russians" and B) "Because I can".

I also reiterate that you might want to take a long hard look at what you consider a "Russian defeat". They've already notched up a major glaring "defeat" in the sense that they didn't roll right into Kyiv virtually unopposed - that's Putin's defeat & folly here. The broader war, though? No serious person thinks Ukraine's taking back Crimea, you're just sounding like some team-sport cheerleader at a point with all of that. Donetsk/Luhansk etc are going to more-or-less stay Russian, caveat being a little ground will be kicked about between either side through the fighting, lines might change a little bit village to village. But big-picture, that ship's sailed with Ukraine's major offensive a while back. Best last chance, according to even some of Zelenskyy's top military guys.

From here it has to be making the best of a bad situation, winding this thing down with the least damage done and most of whatever territory is still Ukrainian staying Ukrainian. ie. A bit higher mental functionality than "Me Mungo, crushh, raaahh, revenge."

 

[contricusc]

From here it has to be making the best of a bad situation, winding this thing down with the least damage done and most of whatever territory is still Ukrainian staying Ukrainian. ie. A bit higher mental functionality than "Me Mungo, crushh, raaahh, revenge."

I don’t agree with your opinion at all. First of all, I think Russia can be defeated, in the sense that a complete socio-economic collapse of Russia would force it to abandon any territorial gains in exchange for peace and economic relief.

Russia needs to collapse like the Soviet Union, torn into smaller countries and greatly weakened. They need to go bankrupt, to be unable to properly feed their people and to sustain a war. This is what Ukrainians want, and this is what the West should want as well.

So far, the sanctions have been weak, and weapons deliveries way below what should have been done. Fortunately, Ukraine has slowly managed to build its own arsenal of long range drones, and it started to successfully hit Russian industrial and military targets inside Russia. This needs to be expanded to a level where the damage done to the Russian industrial capacity is higher than the recovery capacity.

The West’s policy towards this war is one of weakness and appeasement. Nothing good comes from such policies. The good part is that Ukraine has been a lot more determined to win this war, and they are doing great progress with their arms industry.

If Russia retains any Ukrainian land after this war, the West is basically defeated, and the post 1990 world order where the West dominated is over. If the US and Europe together are unable to defeat Russia despite having a tough ally willing to spill blood, than the US and Europe are paper tigers.

I’d go as far as to say that if Ukraine somehow is unable to continue the war, NATO should go in directly and attack Russian positions inside Ukraine. They should have imposed a no-fly zone from 2022 when Zelensky asked them to.

The onjective of this war should not be to help Ukraine retains some land. It should be to dismantle Russia into smaller and weaker states. The West should have blockaded Kaliningrad long time ago, and it should have armed potential insurrections inside Russian provinces where ethnic minorities want independence. The West has been very weak and inept in handling this situation. Thankfully Ukraine has been much more determined and capable.

 

[FiReFTW]

Most Ukrainians would hate to live under the control of Russia. They want to live in a democratic country under the control of their own, Ukrainian government. They are prepared to fight and possibly die rather than see their freedom and identity disappear because that is what Putin wants. Putin has discovered that to his cost (not actually to his cost, rather to the cost of the people of Russia).

I agree that the US administration sees this as a proxy war against Russia. The longer it lasts, the better. The US - and the EU for that matter - can easily afford the cost involved with allowing Russia to destroy itself financially and militarily. What that costs the people of Ukraine is almost of no importance.

How do you end this war? The Ukrainians will not resign themselves to their country and culture being extinguished by Russia. As long as they are supplied with the means to resist the invasion ie munitions, intel etc, they will fight for their existence.

Its not living under the control of Russia obviously that is not acceptable, but what is acceptable is a negotiation and risking some territory loss in order for the war to end and a long lasting peace with no possibility for future war.

Putin doesn't care about how much it costs he will go all in, even if he risks millions of russian soldiers, the problem is ukraine doesn't have that option, they will not be able to survive a long war, their manpower is already extremely thin and problematic.

Whats better? Cut your losses and sacrifice some territory or risk a complete defeat?

 

[Relic]

NSFL... The work of the 79th Air Assault Brigade and the 47th Mechanized Brigade this week against the Russians invading Ukraine. Some of these kills are extremely up close and personal. It reminds you that the Russian military, while completely guilty of their invasions and war crimes, is simply made up of people and many of them are young conscripts and / or fathers. Many of their children can actually watch them blown to pieces in drone footage....War is as dark as ever because we now have the first "person", close up view of so many people dying.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1f09yi4
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1f0io1z
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1eziv2k

 

[Relic]

France has arrested Russian billionaire, Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov. The Russian was arrested in Paris on numerous charges. One can only hope they freeze any funds he has in Europe and confiscate them to help pay the bill for Ukrainian military aid.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/24/europe/telegram-ceo-pavel-durov-detained-france-intl-latam/index.html

 

[contricusc]

France has arrested Russian billionaire, Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov. The Russian was arrested in Paris on numerous charges. One can only hope they freeze any funds he has in Europe and confiscate them to help pay the bill for Ukrainian military aid.

This is actually a bad thing, as Durov was arrested because Telegram doesn’t censor enough. The Telegram app is known to be used by people who want to avoid censorship, so it is a tool that helps free speech. His arrest just shows that France is not much different from Russia when it comes to its attitude towards free speech and censorship. Shame.

 

[Scott Summers]

France, never the same after De Gaulle.

 

[SilverMachine]

I don’t agree with your opinion at all. First of all, I think Russia can be defeated, in the sense that a complete socio-economic collapse of Russia would force it to abandon any territorial gains in exchange for peace and economic relief.

Russia needs to collapse like the Soviet Union, torn into smaller countries and greatly weakened. They need to go bankrupt, to be unable to properly feed their people and to sustain a war. This is what Ukrainians want, and this is what the West should want as well.

So far, the sanctions have been weak, and weapons deliveries way below what should have been done. Fortunately, Ukraine has slowly managed to build its own arsenal of long range drones, and it started to successfully hit Russian industrial and military targets inside Russia. This needs to be expanded to a level where the damage done to the Russian industrial capacity is higher than the recovery capacity.

The West’s policy towards this war is one of weakness and appeasement. Nothing good comes from such policies. The good part is that Ukraine has been a lot more determined to win this war, and they are doing great progress with their arms industry.

If Russia retains any Ukrainian land after this war, the West is basically defeated, and the post 1990 world order where the West dominated is over. If the US and Europe together are unable to defeat Russia despite having a tough ally willing to spill blood, than the US and Europe are paper tigers.

I’d go as far as to say that if Ukraine somehow is unable to continue the war, NATO should go in directly and attack Russian positions inside Ukraine. They should have imposed a no-fly zone from 2022 when Zelensky asked them to.

The onjective of this war should not be to help Ukraine retains some land. It should be to dismantle Russia into smaller and weaker states. The West should have blockaded Kaliningrad long time ago, and it should have armed potential insurrections inside Russian provinces where ethnic minorities want independence. The West has been very weak and inept in handling this situation. Thankfully Ukraine has been much more determined and capable.

Listen to yourself, man. This is all absolute fantasy.

Also, the last thing the world needs is a Balkanized Russia for god's sake. Talk about a security nightmare the likes we've really never seen.

Russia's *going to* retain "some Ukrainian land" as this thing ends, you'd best get used to it. In the real world the bad guys don't always get sent packing with their tail between their legs. What the aim is here, is preventing them taking any more, and having Ukraine in as advantageous a negotiating position (which will still be less-advantageous than Russia's, just due to the lay of the land here) as possible when it comes to it. No more no less.

Using your irresponsible, reckless black & white view, "preserving the post 1990 world order" and all: if real life were that rigid & by-the-book Biden & NATO would have just gone all-in with WWIII the second Putin marched into Ukraine, day 1. Because it's worth it, because ethics, because international norms and order and we do whatever's necessary to protect & uphold it. The law says you can't just go in and try to seize another country, therefore we're putting B2's over Moscow.

Didn't go down that way, because adults in charge. We're not playing army men here, this is real life.

 

[FiReFTW]

Listen to yourself, man. This is all absolute fantasy.

Also, the last thing the world needs is a Balkanized Russia for god's sake. Talk about a security nightmare the likes we've really never seen.

Russia's *going to* retain "some Ukrainian land" as this thing ends, you'd best get used to it. In the real world the bad guys don't always get sent packing with their tail between their legs. What the aim is here, is preventing them taking any more, and having Ukraine in as advantageous a negotiating position (which will still be less-advantageous than Russia's, just due to the lay of the land here) as possible when it comes to it. No more no less.

Using your irresponsible, reckless black & white view, "preserving the post 1990 world order" and all: if real life were that rigid & by-the-book Biden & NATO would have just gone all-in with WWIII the second Putin marched into Ukraine, day 1. Because it's worth it, because ethics, because international norms and order and we do whatever's necessary to protect & uphold it. The law says you can't just go in and try to seize another country, therefore we're putting B2's over Moscow.

Didn't go down that way, because adults in charge. We're not playing army men here, this is real life.

Don't even respond to him its best to ignore him, he has a lot of built up rage,anger and trauma against Russia, its more than obvious, I wouldn't want to know what some Russian did to him.

 

[Spitfire9]

Listen to yourself, man. This is all absolute fantasy.

Also, the last thing the world needs is a Balkanized Russia for god's sake. Talk about a security nightmare the likes we've really never seen.

Russia's *going to* retain "some Ukrainian land" as this thing ends, you'd best get used to it. In the real world the bad guys don't always get sent packing with their tail between their legs. What the aim is here, is preventing them taking any more, and having Ukraine in as advantageous a negotiating position (which will still be less-advantageous than Russia's, just due to the lay of the land here) as possible when it comes to it. No more no less.

Using your irresponsible, reckless black & white view, "preserving the post 1990 world order" and all: if real life were that rigid & by-the-book Biden & NATO would have just gone all-in with WWIII the second Putin marched into Ukraine, day 1. Because it's worth it, because ethics, because international norms and order and we do whatever's necessary to protect & uphold it. The law says you can't just go in and try to seize another country, therefore we're putting B2's over Moscow.

Didn't go down that way, because adults in charge. We're not playing army men here, this is real life.

I'm not sure about adults being in charge. The adult thing for Putin to do would have been to make some excuse and abandon the invasion once it was clear the blitzkrieg had failed. The adult thing for Biden to do would have been to furnish Ukraine with the best means to reverse the invasion once it had become clear that the Russian army was not the great military force it had been imagined to be prior to the invasion..

Instead both sides opted for a war of attrition. Russia should lose that. Long wars are won by the side with the stronger economy. Russia is being ground down financially by a war of attrition. The US, EU, UK , Norway and others on Ukraine's side are not.

 

[Anastasius]

I would like to revise my previous analysis to say that one of the strategies I mentioned previously (Ukraine doing hit-and-run strikes to force Russia to commit forces to defend gaps in their line) actually seems to be working. Russia has no effective counter to such guerilla tactics unlike conventional warfare where they can use overwhelming firepower to overwhelm their opposition and Ukraine seems to have understood this and is now forcing Russia to effectively vaporize their own territory in a vain attempt to contain this. They also appear to be diverting increasingly more forces from Ukraine itself to defend Russian territory which is going to create some major opportunities for Ukraine.

Quite interesting all in all. It looks like Ukraine has discovered Russia's weak point which is that they suck at asymmetrical warfare. Doubly so when it's on their own territory. 100-200 Ukrainian spec ops can cause massive damage to valuable infrastructure across a large amount of territory and then be gone before the Russian military has a chance to respond. Russia is used to taking advantage of their tech edge to flatten everything but it doesn't work here. I'm not sure if this is enough to get Ukraine to the victory line but Russia seems to have gained yet another headache. And unlike Russians, Ukrainians appear to be treating the locals more or less civilly, thus winning the optics war against Russia with Russia's own citizens.

As for a Balkanized Russia...I don't think Western-aligned nations necessarily view it as a huge risk but more of a massive opportunity to screw over their other big rivals but I'll refrain from mentioning it here for the time being.

 

[MaciekRS]

Whats better? Cut your losses and sacrifice some territory or risk a complete defeat?

Complete defeat was an option in feb 22 when ruZZians were trying to capture Kyiv.
Putinokios are now aware that Odessa and corridor to transnistria are impossible to get, anything beyond Dnipro rive is impossible to get, so they are fighting for Donbass.

And all people know that Ukrainians still have about 100k men in trained brigades SOMEWHERE. Ruzzians know it to, that many brigades are impossible to hide so both sides are waiting to see how Ukraine will use those people.

 

[Relic]

This is actually a bad thing, as Durov was arrested because Telegram doesn’t censor enough. The Telegram app is known to be used by people who want to avoid censorship, so it is a tool that helps free speech. His arrest just shows that France is not much different from Russia when it comes to its attitude towards free speech and censorship. Shame.

It doesn't really matter to me why he was arrested. My interest is in seeing any wealthy, powerful, influential Russian person who travels to a country whose tax money is supporting Ukraine's defense, arrested on the spot and held as bargaining chip against Russia... Shouldn't have left Russia to a country fighting a defensive proxy war against them.

Sucks to suck.

I'd hold Durov unless he posts $1 Billion usd in bail money to be used by French industry for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine.

Russia's oligarchs and wealthy elites SHOULD not have the freedom to travel to any Western nation right now.

 

[SilverMachine]

The adult thing for Biden to do would have been to furnish Ukraine with the best means to reverse the invasion once it had become clear that the Russian army was not the great military force it had been imagined to be prior to the invasion..

Instead both sides opted for a war of attrition. Russia should lose that. Long wars are won by the side with the stronger economy. Russia is being ground down financially by a war of attrition. The US, EU, UK , Norway and others on Ukraine's side are not.

Regarding the first part, that's precisely what Biden and the west did. Threw them more tanks & APCs & rockets & cash than they knew what to do with, and hoped for the best. There's not much else to be done up-and-above that, short of western boots on the ground, which is a no-go for pretty obvious reasons.

I'm skeptical on the grounds for Russia "losing a war of attrition", too. Yes, the NATO military-industrial machine outperforms Russia, no duh, but ultimately you're still limited to Ukrainians using the stuff. I've yet to hear a cogent argument getting around the fact that, while Russia's not even close to on a full war footing at total-mobilization, Ukraine's literally using everyone they can get and have no hope of replacing losses. If attrition's the name of the game, that applies to men as well as to materiel, and there's no getting around the cold hard fact that Russia can replace every poor soul that gets a kamikaze drone up his ass, whereas Ukraine can't. i.e. The longer this goes on, the more confident Putin's evil smirk's about to get. It is what it is.


EDIT: Relic, I don't know a whole lot about Durov, but isn't he basically an anti-Putin guy, fled Russia because he wouldn't play ball with shutting down Putin-opposed voices on Telegram (or whatever its prototype/predecessor was)? A) I'm not sure arresting him is some blow to Russia, other than I guess hypothetically interrupting/downing the app which a bunch of Russian soldiers apparently use, and B) Why would he be a barganing chip against Russia if he hasn't lived there in years, the business isn't based there, and he & Putin have no love for one another? I doubt Russia's about to trade for a guy like this, pretty different situation to the arms dealer guy or Putin's FSB assassin.

I guess I have no thought one way or the other on the arrest - if they have the goods/evidence on illegal shenanigans going on with the app and the dude hasn't co-operated in shutting that all down, go for it, throw the book at him. Not sure it's of any significance one way or the other for the war itself, though. Even if Telegram's curbstomped from existence, no doubt some other app will show up that the average Russian grunts will switch to. And Putin doesn't care.

 

[Relic]

I hope JASSM is approved for Ukraine's usage soon. Russia has proven barely capable of intercepting Stormshadow and SCALP-EG. Ukraine has done substantial damage in Crimea and the remainder of occupied Ukraine using the weapons, both it's obvious that their inventories of both are low. In order to keep pounding Russian air defense, airfields, radars and ammunition storage facilities, Ukraine needs a new source of Western cruise missiles. JASSM is even more difficult to intercept than Stormshadow. It's a stealthy cruise missile that Russian air defenses will not see until very late, giving them limited time to find a firing solution for intercept.

The U.S. is now in full rate production of the JASSM-ER, which increases the range of the missile from 370km'ish KMs to approximately 700 KMs. They are also developing the JASSM-XR that will increase the range further, to beyond 1000 KMs. It's highly unlikely that Ukraine will get the long range variant, but USA certainly now has surplus stockpiles of the original "A" model. With production increasing from 500 untils per year to 650 units per year, USA certainly has some to send and they now have the launch platform to use them with.

 

[Relic]

Lithuania has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine consisting of the following:

- 5000 kamikaze drones
- Air defense missiles
- Anti-drone systems
- Assault rifles
- Small arms ammunition
- $40 million usd to purchase radars and de-mining equipment.

Lithuania announces new military aid package, including drones, air defense missiles

Simonyte said that by the end of 2024, Lithuania will fulfill and most likely exceed its commitment to spend 0.25% of its GDP on assistance to Ukraine and defense.

kyivindependent.com

 

[contricusc]

It doesn't really matter to me why he was arrested. My interest is in seeing any wealthy, powerful, influential Russian person who travels to a country whose tax money is supporting Ukraine's defense, arrested on the spot and held as bargaining chip against Russia... Shouldn't have left Russia to a country fighting a defensive proxy war against them.

He left Russia long time ago, because he was not willing to do the regime’s bidding. He refused to handle the information about Ukrainians participating in the Maidan revolts to the Russian authorities. He was basically a Russian disident who stood for freedom and risked his position to protect Ukrainians.

He is living in the UAE, and is a citizen of UAE, St.Kitts and Nevis and also France. His businesses are based in the UAE, so he is really not the typical “Russia oligarch”. He is just a tech entrepreneur who left Russia because of the censorship politics, as he wanted to promote free speech.

Arresting him for not censoring enough is a disgrace. It is something that Russia, China or Iran would do. Shame on France for taking such a degenerate stance.