Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[SilverMachine]

I have to admit, I'm also not particularly confident about a Ukrainian victory. You can talk about Kursk all you like but it doesn't change the fact that Russia started making pretty major gains in Ukraine once this operation got underway which leads me to suspect that Ukraine diverted a substantial amount of its forces that were defending the country for the invasion of Russia and no longer has enough to hold back the Russian advance.

People also need to remember that Russians generally don't give a crap about their territory. The reason they like having such a big amount of land despite not enough people to populate it and most of it being fairly underdeveloped is because it fits perfectly with the Russian strategy of defense in depth. To put it another way for the US to lose even one state to enemy action, even one as worthless as, say, Oregon would be a major catastrophe. But for Russia Kursk is mostly nothing. It could be a problem if Ukraine pushes deep enough south to flank the Russian forces occupying Ukraine and prevent them from being resupplied but it doesn't seem thus far like they have enough gas to make it happen.

Basically, Ukraine's strategy in Russia has multiple options:

1) Capture territory in the hopes of a stronger negotiating hand against Russia. Not really working all that well and Russia isn't falling for it.

2) Pivot down south in order to cut off Russian reinforcements. Again Russia seems to have anticipated that and this area is their main focus.

3) Attempt to sabotage enough of Russia's mission-critical infrastructure in order to hinder their war effort but as I said before, it doesn't seem like Ukraine has enough fuel in the tank to pull that off.

And to make it worse it doesn't look like even the Ukrainians themselves know what their actual objectives in Russia are. If I had to hazard a guess the initial idea was to prove to the Western powers, particularly the US, that Ukraine can still put up a fight and Russia is cowardly enough that there is no risk of escalation if NATO were to get involved a bit more seriously and provide more weapons and munitions to Ukraine but that didn't work - so now Ukraine is left wondering what now?

I want Ukraine to win from both a moral and self-interested perspective. I just don't see how anymore and I really hope the rest of the ex-USSR nations are paying attention and preparing themselves for the fallout.

This guy gets it.

 

[contricusc]

Yes the longer the war drags on the more impact it has on Russia also and the more it hurts Russia also, but at what cost.

You maybe don't realize that Europe or USA don't give a cr*p about Ukraine or its people, their whole purpose and goal is to hurt Russia as long as possible and as much as possible, but its Ukraine who is suffering the most in this.

What you completely dismiss here is Ukrainians’ will to revenge. At this point, after all the suffering, I bet most Ukrainians are more interested in punishing Russia than saving their country. They will want to inflict more damage to Russia than what Russia did to them, in order to punish it for the aggression. This is why there is no way out of this war other than a Russian defeat.

Ukraine is in a position where it feels that it has nothing left to lose (the country was already ruined), but it has a lot to gain (destroying Russia), so continuing the war is the only way forward. It is Russia that should try to negotiate for peace, because Russia is the one that still has a lot more to lose.

 

[SilverMachine]

"What you completely dismiss here is Ukrainians’ will to revenge. At this point, after all the suffering, I bet most Ukrainians are more interested in punishing Russia than saving their country. They will want to inflict more damage to Russia than what Russia did to them, in order to punish it for the aggression. This is why there is no way out of this war other than a Russian defeat."


This is yet another reason the west shouldn't just be all "derpy derp derp, give the Ukrainians all the best long-range stuff and let Zelenskyy completely off the leash to do whatever he wants! Good times derpy derp derp". Of fucking course the Ukrainians are out for blood, it's beyond understandable. It's also not a smart macro policy to take - this thing's about doing whatever you can to stop Russia gaining any further territory, and, (optimistically/unrealistically) going home for the most part. It's not about greenlighting Wunderwaffe strikes deep into the heart of Russia to "punish" them. Keep in mind, Zelenskyy's not going to be in power forever - he's going to have to cave and hold an election sooner or later - and there's no guarantee the next guy's going to be as decent a person. Suddenly you've got one of the most corrupt states in Europe with a shitload of A-grade long-range western gear headed by some Ukrainian-Kadyrov or whatever, intent on fucking up Moscow even after the admin preceding him has agreed on terms to end the war. It's a risk the west's smart not to take.

There's a balance here. Yes, you want to give the Ukrainians what they feasibly need to create a buffer zone making it harder for Russia to hit them. No more than that, though - the notion that "we're trying to avoid this spiralling into something bigger" has just gone out the window by now is silly. That doesn't just apply to 2022, that's still the case now. You don't seem to get how much worse this thing can become if we let it - HIMARS and Storm Shadows killing Russians is a crazy-ass situation we find ourselves in, now, in and of itself. Nobody needs some AFU General or whatever gaining more support with the public than Zelenskyy has, finding himself in power, and deciding he's going to rain hellfire down on St Petersburg because A) "Fuck Russia/Russians" and B) "Because I can".

I also reiterate that you might want to take a long hard look at what you consider a "Russian defeat". They've already notched up a major glaring "defeat" in the sense that they didn't roll right into Kyiv virtually unopposed - that's Putin's defeat & folly here. The broader war, though? No serious person thinks Ukraine's taking back Crimea, you're just sounding like some team-sport cheerleader at a point with all of that. Donetsk/Luhansk etc are going to more-or-less stay Russian, caveat being a little ground will be kicked about between either side through the fighting, lines might change a little bit village to village. But big-picture, that ship's sailed with Ukraine's major offensive a while back. Best last chance, according to even some of Zelenskyy's top military guys.

From here it has to be making the best of a bad situation, winding this thing down with the least damage done and most of whatever territory is still Ukrainian staying Ukrainian. ie. A bit higher mental functionality than "Me Mungo, crushh, raaahh, revenge."