Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[SilverMachine]

I have to admit, I'm also not particularly confident about a Ukrainian victory. You can talk about Kursk all you like but it doesn't change the fact that Russia started making pretty major gains in Ukraine once this operation got underway which leads me to suspect that Ukraine diverted a substantial amount of its forces that were defending the country for the invasion of Russia and no longer has enough to hold back the Russian advance.

People also need to remember that Russians generally don't give a crap about their territory. The reason they like having such a big amount of land despite not enough people to populate it and most of it being fairly underdeveloped is because it fits perfectly with the Russian strategy of defense in depth. To put it another way for the US to lose even one state to enemy action, even one as worthless as, say, Oregon would be a major catastrophe. But for Russia Kursk is mostly nothing. It could be a problem if Ukraine pushes deep enough south to flank the Russian forces occupying Ukraine and prevent them from being resupplied but it doesn't seem thus far like they have enough gas to make it happen.

Basically, Ukraine's strategy in Russia has multiple options:

1) Capture territory in the hopes of a stronger negotiating hand against Russia. Not really working all that well and Russia isn't falling for it.

2) Pivot down south in order to cut off Russian reinforcements. Again Russia seems to have anticipated that and this area is their main focus.

3) Attempt to sabotage enough of Russia's mission-critical infrastructure in order to hinder their war effort but as I said before, it doesn't seem like Ukraine has enough fuel in the tank to pull that off.

And to make it worse it doesn't look like even the Ukrainians themselves know what their actual objectives in Russia are. If I had to hazard a guess the initial idea was to prove to the Western powers, particularly the US, that Ukraine can still put up a fight and Russia is cowardly enough that there is no risk of escalation if NATO were to get involved a bit more seriously and provide more weapons and munitions to Ukraine but that didn't work - so now Ukraine is left wondering what now?

I want Ukraine to win from both a moral and self-interested perspective. I just don't see how anymore and I really hope the rest of the ex-USSR nations are paying attention and preparing themselves for the fallout.

This guy gets it.

 

[contricusc]

Yes the longer the war drags on the more impact it has on Russia also and the more it hurts Russia also, but at what cost.

You maybe don't realize that Europe or USA don't give a cr*p about Ukraine or its people, their whole purpose and goal is to hurt Russia as long as possible and as much as possible, but its Ukraine who is suffering the most in this.

What you completely dismiss here is Ukrainians’ will to revenge. At this point, after all the suffering, I bet most Ukrainians are more interested in punishing Russia than saving their country. They will want to inflict more damage to Russia than what Russia did to them, in order to punish it for the aggression. This is why there is no way out of this war other than a Russian defeat.

Ukraine is in a position where it feels that it has nothing left to lose (the country was already ruined), but it has a lot to gain (destroying Russia), so continuing the war is the only way forward. It is Russia that should try to negotiate for peace, because Russia is the one that still has a lot more to lose.

 

[SilverMachine]

"What you completely dismiss here is Ukrainians’ will to revenge. At this point, after all the suffering, I bet most Ukrainians are more interested in punishing Russia than saving their country. They will want to inflict more damage to Russia than what Russia did to them, in order to punish it for the aggression. This is why there is no way out of this war other than a Russian defeat."


This is yet another reason the west shouldn't just be all "derpy derp derp, give the Ukrainians all the best long-range stuff and let Zelenskyy completely off the leash to do whatever he wants! Good times derpy derp derp". Of fucking course the Ukrainians are out for blood, it's beyond understandable. It's also not a smart macro policy to take - this thing's about doing whatever you can to stop Russia gaining any further territory, and, (optimistically/unrealistically) going home for the most part. It's not about greenlighting Wunderwaffe strikes deep into the heart of Russia to "punish" them. Keep in mind, Zelenskyy's not going to be in power forever - he's going to have to cave and hold an election sooner or later - and there's no guarantee the next guy's going to be as decent a person. Suddenly you've got one of the most corrupt states in Europe with a shitload of A-grade long-range western gear headed by some Ukrainian-Kadyrov or whatever, intent on fucking up Moscow even after the admin preceding him has agreed on terms to end the war. It's a risk the west's smart not to take.

There's a balance here. Yes, you want to give the Ukrainians what they feasibly need to create a buffer zone making it harder for Russia to hit them. No more than that, though - the notion that "we're trying to avoid this spiralling into something bigger" has just gone out the window by now is silly. That doesn't just apply to 2022, that's still the case now. You don't seem to get how much worse this thing can become if we let it - HIMARS and Storm Shadows killing Russians is a crazy-ass situation we find ourselves in, now, in and of itself. Nobody needs some AFU General or whatever gaining more support with the public than Zelenskyy has, finding himself in power, and deciding he's going to rain hellfire down on St Petersburg because A) "Fuck Russia/Russians" and B) "Because I can".

I also reiterate that you might want to take a long hard look at what you consider a "Russian defeat". They've already notched up a major glaring "defeat" in the sense that they didn't roll right into Kyiv virtually unopposed - that's Putin's defeat & folly here. The broader war, though? No serious person thinks Ukraine's taking back Crimea, you're just sounding like some team-sport cheerleader at a point with all of that. Donetsk/Luhansk etc are going to more-or-less stay Russian, caveat being a little ground will be kicked about between either side through the fighting, lines might change a little bit village to village. But big-picture, that ship's sailed with Ukraine's major offensive a while back. Best last chance, according to even some of Zelenskyy's top military guys.

From here it has to be making the best of a bad situation, winding this thing down with the least damage done and most of whatever territory is still Ukrainian staying Ukrainian. ie. A bit higher mental functionality than "Me Mungo, crushh, raaahh, revenge."

 

[contricusc]

From here it has to be making the best of a bad situation, winding this thing down with the least damage done and most of whatever territory is still Ukrainian staying Ukrainian. ie. A bit higher mental functionality than "Me Mungo, crushh, raaahh, revenge."

I don’t agree with your opinion at all. First of all, I think Russia can be defeated, in the sense that a complete socio-economic collapse of Russia would force it to abandon any territorial gains in exchange for peace and economic relief.

Russia needs to collapse like the Soviet Union, torn into smaller countries and greatly weakened. They need to go bankrupt, to be unable to properly feed their people and to sustain a war. This is what Ukrainians want, and this is what the West should want as well.

So far, the sanctions have been weak, and weapons deliveries way below what should have been done. Fortunately, Ukraine has slowly managed to build its own arsenal of long range drones, and it started to successfully hit Russian industrial and military targets inside Russia. This needs to be expanded to a level where the damage done to the Russian industrial capacity is higher than the recovery capacity.

The West’s policy towards this war is one of weakness and appeasement. Nothing good comes from such policies. The good part is that Ukraine has been a lot more determined to win this war, and they are doing great progress with their arms industry.

If Russia retains any Ukrainian land after this war, the West is basically defeated, and the post 1990 world order where the West dominated is over. If the US and Europe together are unable to defeat Russia despite having a tough ally willing to spill blood, than the US and Europe are paper tigers.

I’d go as far as to say that if Ukraine somehow is unable to continue the war, NATO should go in directly and attack Russian positions inside Ukraine. They should have imposed a no-fly zone from 2022 when Zelensky asked them to.

The onjective of this war should not be to help Ukraine retains some land. It should be to dismantle Russia into smaller and weaker states. The West should have blockaded Kaliningrad long time ago, and it should have armed potential insurrections inside Russian provinces where ethnic minorities want independence. The West has been very weak and inept in handling this situation. Thankfully Ukraine has been much more determined and capable.

 

[FiReFTW]

Most Ukrainians would hate to live under the control of Russia. They want to live in a democratic country under the control of their own, Ukrainian government. They are prepared to fight and possibly die rather than see their freedom and identity disappear because that is what Putin wants. Putin has discovered that to his cost (not actually to his cost, rather to the cost of the people of Russia).

I agree that the US administration sees this as a proxy war against Russia. The longer it lasts, the better. The US - and the EU for that matter - can easily afford the cost involved with allowing Russia to destroy itself financially and militarily. What that costs the people of Ukraine is almost of no importance.

How do you end this war? The Ukrainians will not resign themselves to their country and culture being extinguished by Russia. As long as they are supplied with the means to resist the invasion ie munitions, intel etc, they will fight for their existence.

Its not living under the control of Russia obviously that is not acceptable, but what is acceptable is a negotiation and risking some territory loss in order for the war to end and a long lasting peace with no possibility for future war.

Putin doesn't care about how much it costs he will go all in, even if he risks millions of russian soldiers, the problem is ukraine doesn't have that option, they will not be able to survive a long war, their manpower is already extremely thin and problematic.

Whats better? Cut your losses and sacrifice some territory or risk a complete defeat?