Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[FiReFTW]

To the first point: because we're never setting off nuclear weapons under any circumstances, other than someone pulling the trigger first and launching them at us. They're not like us. You have NATO tanks rolling through Poland & Ukraine toward Russia, American pilots striking Russian soil, and they *would* do it. We're more powerful, they also have the will to push the button whereas we don't. It's not something to toy with, even when they're bluffing about other stuff.

Regarding the second point: circumstances would determine that. *Ukraine* somehow driving them out, themselves, with Ukrainian weapons? No, they wouldn't blow up the world over that. But that's fantasy and Ukraine can't do that. As stated above, you push the advantage we have *too far*, having it be more than just "we're funding Ukraine and providing materiel & training", sure they would. As you state, Russia's weak - they have a genuine fear of being smacked down by NATO someday. And we could. But any Russian leader - emphasis on *not just Putin* - is willing to glass the planet if it comes to that, and they have the full backing of a majority of their people on it. The "west is the big bad trying to stomp out the glorious Russians and our glorious history and our glorious yadda yadda" isn't some Putin thing, most of the normies over there buy into the notion.

Save Ukraine as best you can. But do it using Ukrainians, if they're able. If they're unable, then sucks as it may, tough shit, this isn't an apocalyptic WWII situation for us, and we're not about to turn it into one by crossing Russia's *actual* red lines.

You are wasting your time explaining this to blinded ignorant people with some deep seeded hatred towards Russia, they can't comprehend these things like you do.

 

[SilverMachine]

Pretty much. But hey, honesty has to be aired no matter how unpopular. We can leave the fantasy & messianic self-promotion to Zelenensky.

I'm sympathetic to these two guy's takes, *morally*. But the world's never been moral, it doesn't work that way. Russia's on the security council permantly like China, they hold equal veto sway as the U.S. and we can't kick them out (that'd be a horrible idea and would guarantee a WWIII anyway). They have as many (it used to be more, but think they've downsized somewhat) nukes as America does, even if like 30-40% of them are probably duds they can blow up the planet multiple times over. They may not be going to go crazy and do it over...fucking Kursk, a backwater, but if you're talking about goddamn Shock And Awe Iraq '03 over St Petersburg & Moscow, you're a suicidal clown basically.

It is what it is, reality's a thing. Israel's going to fuck up Iran in any head-to-head, Trump's an obnoxious moron, Kamala doesn't stand for a damn thing, Biden's old, Zelensky thinks he's Churchill, the sky is blue, Dr Phil's a fraud, New Zealand's irrelevant, nobody cares about Belgium, and Russians are fucking hardcore nihilists willing to turn Earth into the Moon if it looks like Russia's no longer going to be a thing.

Reality.

 

[contricusc]

To the first point: because we're never setting off nuclear weapons under any circumstances, other than someone pulling the trigger first and launching them at us. They're not like us. You have NATO tanks rolling through Poland & Ukraine toward Russia, American pilots striking Russian soil, and they *would* do it. We're more powerful, they also have the will to push the button whereas we don't. It's not something to toy with, even when they're bluffing about other stuff.

Their willingness to push the button is just propaganda and bluffing. You fell for it. They didn’t push the button when they left Afghanistan because they couldn’t hold it anymore, and they won’t push the button if they need to leave Ukraine. Why should they sacrifice Moscow and St Petersburg for Ukraine?

They are just talking about these things because they saw Westerners who actually believe them and are willing to make concessions out of fear.

Save Ukraine as best you can. But do it using Ukrainians, if they're able. If they're unable, then sucks as it may, tough shit, this isn't an apocalyptic WWII situation for us, and we're not about to turn it into one by crossing Russia's *actual* red lines.

Russia’s “actual” red lines will continue to move once they are crossed, as they have been doing for years. Putin and his oligarchy will not risk their own lives for Ukraine. They are just as cowards as Western leaders, the only differnce is that they are bluffing and posing as tough man. They are not.

Western leaders should call their bluffs and let Ukraine strike inside Russia with Western weapons. Nothing will change, except for the fact that Russia will need to adapt by moving further away their aircraft from the frontlines and getting more dispersed logistics.

The fear of nuclear annihilation is overrated. Russia won’t do it, because it would get annihilated too in the process. Also, the MAD doctrine is a big myth, because in reality the world would live on past any nuclear confrontation. There have been hundreds of nuclear detonations in the past and the world continues to thrive.

 

[UkroTurk]

UK could send troops to Ukraine on training mission

Generals consider money-saving deployment as Starmer hosts Zelensky at No 10

www.thetimes.com

 

[SilverMachine]

Their willingness to push the button is just propaganda and bluffing. You fell for it. They didn’t push the button when they left Afghanistan because they couldn’t hold it anymore, and they won’t push the button if they need to leave Ukraine. Why should they sacrifice Moscow and St Petersburg for Ukraine?

They are just talking about these things because they saw Westerners who actually believe them and are willing to make concessions out of fear.



Russia’s “actual” red lines will continue to move once they are crossed, as they have been doing for years. Putin and his oligarchy will not risk their own lives for Ukraine. They are just as cowards as Western leaders, the only differnce is that they are bluffing and posing as tough man. They are not.

Western leaders should call their bluffs and let Ukraine strike inside Russia with Western weapons. Nothing will change, except for the fact that Russia will need to adapt by moving further away their aircraft from the frontlines and getting more dispersed logistics.

The fear of nuclear annihilation is overrated. Russia won’t do it, because it would get annihilated too in the process. Also, the MAD doctrine is a big myth, because in reality the world would live on past any nuclear confrontation. There have been hundreds of nuclear detonations in the past and the world continues to thrive.

It's not bluffing though. Kursk? Bluffing. Kursk is nothing, Russia doesn't give a shit beyond it being a mild humiliation that they'll crush in due course.

Anything meaningful? They totally will. You can't have it both ways, either Putin's Evil Stalin II or he's not, it's not both. You miss the fact that a guy like Putin, or Medvedev, or Shoigu, or Kadyrov, they *don't* give a shit about continuing to live, if it's a world without Russia as Russia is now. We're not that. Biden, or Obama, or Bush or Clinton or Trump, none of those guys would ever let a hundred nukes off the chain unless Russia or China did it first. Russia won't under normal circumstances either, but *western/NATO* troops specifically on their territory they totally fucking would. It's not that complicated. We're strong, they're weak. The guy with his back against the wall and someone trying to strangle him, if he has a gun in his pocket he's totally pulling it.

This isn't some "Russia's right, Ukraine's wrong" thing. Ukraine deserves all its territory. Thing is, this war's going to end without Ukraine keeping all its territory, and the only way we're going to change that is a full-on existential WWIII. You might think you want that, wiser people know better, and thus won't pursue it. End of story. Ukraine's entitled to all their land. Normally. Ukraine's also not going to get all their land, if they want to go down a route of tens of millions of dead to defend it, fuck 'em. Most Ukrainians will feel the same way in 12 months, 18 months time. Inevitability has a way of that.

 

[Soldier30]

Unique footage of simultaneous combat operations of the Ukrainian Patriot air defense system of American manufacture and the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system of Russia has been published. The Patriot air defense system division was deployed in the area of the settlement of Pashena Balka in the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine. It is worth noting that the Patriot air defense system was deployed with violations; the system should have been covered by other air defense systems to operate against small targets. Due to the lack of cover, the Russian Orlan-M UAV conducted unimpeded reconnaissance and guided missiles to the target. The Patriot air defense system crew detected the Iskander missiles and launched two interceptor missiles. The Patriot missiles went to the target, but due to the fact that the angle of approach of the Iskander-M missiles to the target exceeded 80 degrees, the guidance radar lost the target, and the guidance of the interceptor missiles ceased. As a result of the battle, Iskander missiles, using the air burst method, hit the AN/MRO-65 radar, the AN/MS0-104 combat control station and one Patriot SAM launcher. The extent of the damage is unclear, since the filming was done from a great distance.

 

[contricusc]

Anything meaningful? They totally will. You can't have it both ways, either Putin's Evil Stalin II or he's not, it's not both. You miss the fact that a guy like Putin, or Medvedev, or Shoigu, or Kadyrov, they *don't* give a shit about continuing to live, if it's a world without Russia as Russia is now.

Putin is a pigmy compared to Stalin. He would like to be perceived like the evil Stalin, but he is just a schoolyard bully type that would go in hiding the first time he gets slapped back. He is evil, but also a coward. He and his gang of thugs don’t give a damn about Russia, they only care about them staying in power and wealthy.

Putin would sell half of Russia in a heartbeat if he had to do it to save his life. The same goes for Medvedev, Shoigu or Kadyrov. The last one, the criminal Kadyrov sold his own people to Putin just for his own wealth and power.

We're not that. Biden, or Obama, or Bush or Clinton or Trump, none of those guys would ever let a hundred nukes off the chain unless Russia or China did it first.

The same goes for Putin. He would not start a nuclear war as long as his own life was not in danger, Russia be damned.

Russia won't under normal circumstances either, but *western/NATO* troops specifically on their territory they totally fucking would. It's not that complicated.

You really fell for their propaganda. You really think Putin cares about Russia. He is not. He only cares about his wealth, power and regime. If Putin would see Russia’s military crumbling against the West, he would immediately come to negotiate a peaceful resolution, and he would give up Ukraine immediately.

His nuclear weapons are just an insurance policy that the West will not go for regime change or direct invasion of Russia. As long as the West will not ty to invade Russia proper and annex territory, or try to do a regime change move inside Russia, the nukes will be kept as an insurance policy.

I would bet that even an invasion of Kaliningrad would not result in nuclear war. Putin would be willing to give up that territory if the alternative would be his end.

Remember that he’s a coward, not a tough guy. He is like Trump, only talk and bluster with zero substance.

 

[SilverMachine]

Agree to disagree, I guess. You're reckless as fuck, I'm not, hakuna matata. World War III is the type of thing we should be "we do it if there's no other choice" on, not actively pursuing. This is basic stuff. Oh yeah, Ukraine's nothing on any macro-scale measure. Russia gets it? That sucks. Life also goes on.

 

[SUMAYYA]

Unique footage of simultaneous combat operations of the Ukrainian Patriot air defense system of American manufacture and the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system of Russia has been published. The Patriot air defense system division was deployed in the area of the settlement of Pashena Balka in the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine. It is worth noting that the Patriot air defense system was deployed with violations; the system should have been covered by other air defense systems to operate against small targets. Due to the lack of cover, the Russian Orlan-M UAV conducted unimpeded reconnaissance and guided missiles to the target. The Patriot air defense system crew detected the Iskander missiles and launched two interceptor missiles. The Patriot missiles went to the target, but due to the fact that the angle of approach of the Iskander-M missiles to the target exceeded 80 degrees, the guidance radar lost the target, and the guidance of the interceptor missiles ceased. As a result of the battle, Iskander missiles, using the air burst method, hit the AN/MRO-65 radar, the AN/MS0-104 combat control station and one Patriot SAM launcher. The extent of the damage is unclear, since the filming was done from a great distance.

But the Ukrainian side denies that the system has been damaged

Well I had read news a while ago that Ukraine had requested SM-6 missiles from the United States to confront Russian reconnaissance lines considering that they have a greater range than the Patriot and can confront ballistic missiles to a distance of 370 km.

 

[Relic]

The $50 Billion usd loan for Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets, is going forward. The European Union has agreed in principle to make $35 billion available, while USA , Canada and Japan will use Word Bank mechanisms to put up the remaining $15 billion usd.

The breakdown in funding for the loan will be 90% military and 10% humanitarian. Funding is expected to start being released before the conclusion of 2024. Ukraine will used these funds to not only bolster its own domestic arms market, but also to place large orders from arms dealers in USA, Britain , Germany , France , Sweden , Poland , Czech Republic , Bulgaria , etc.

New Ukraine fund approved by World Bank with money from Canada, U.S.: report - National | Globalnews.ca

The fund will help fulfill a pledge by G7 countries to provide Ukraine with up to $50 billion in additional funding by the end of the year, the sources said.

globalnews.ca

BNN Bloomberg - Canada Business News, TSX Today, Oil and Energy Prices

Get the latest Canadian business news, including TSX updates, changes to oil and energy prices, and Bank of Canada coverage. Explore stock market investing and get expert financial insights on investment portfolio strategies.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

 

[Ryder]

600 000 dead and wounded would shake the things up in a normal country/society but not in a place like Russia where human lives have never ever been of any value- even to the ones who lose their lives. I know how cynical, barbaric and anti- human a lot of the Russians are. The voices of the decent people who are left there are repressed and they don't matter.

Russia is a pretty big country and have always been a highly centralized system- there is Moscow and St. Petersburg where all the economic and political power is concentrated and where the elite lives. Then you have a bunch of big cities where the local elites work for the Central Government and all the rest of the population is second class. And after that you have the rural parts of Russia, the rust belt towns, the Ethnic non- Russian Republics where the Third class citizens and serfs live. These people there hold no political and economic power... they are just a bunch of poor, uneducated, vodka drinking serfs whose lives are worthless.
For Vasya who lives in a dirty old apartment built in Khruschov's time and already drinks a lot like his father, to go to the SMO in Ukraine is the only chance to make some decent money. Even if he dies his momma/wife will get a compensation that is more than they could save in 3 lifetimes. For Vadim who spent most of his life in prison the SMO is a chance to be free again- to steal, kill and rape and be honored for it... if he survives. And when these guys die even if there is someone to shed a tear for them- who can they ask for help? The medias, the local governor, the Army? Nobody will even give a shit about them...

Look at Russian wars in its entire history regardless of the enormous casualties they suffer.

They just dont care. Tsars and the Soviets always treat them like cannon fodder.

You are right about Moscow and St Peterburg holding power over the entire country. Both cities have low recruitment there. If you are from moscow and st petersburg you wont be sent to the front unless from the lower classes or the homeless most of the elite wont go.

 

[Spitfire9]

Look at Russian wars in its entire history regardless of the enormous casualties they suffer.

They just dont care. Tsars and the Soviets always treat them like cannon fodder.

You are right about Moscow and St Peterburg holding power over the entire country. Both cities have low recruitment there. If you are from moscow and st petersburg you wont be sent to the front unless from the lower classes or the homeless most of the elite wont go.

Listening to various informed analysts, I hear that Russia is offering men over $10,000 equivalent in parts of the Russian Federation to sign up for the army. I hear that recruitment is around 1,000 a day. With that number of voluntary recruits, Russia will not run out of soldiers. Non-Russian sources report casualties of around a thousand a day, many of whom will recover and be returned to service.

I don't see the spectre of needing to mobilise worrying Putin. I do see the ongoing transfer of labour away from production of goods and services - already starved of labour - as something that will worry Putin more and more.

 

[UkroTurk]

France to transfer up to 20 Mirage 2000 to Ukraine in 2025, - Avionslegendaires

L'Ukraine obtiendra ses Dassault Aviation Mirage 2000-5F en 2025. — avionslegendaires.net

Le 9 octobre 2024, par Arnaud. Le compte à rebours est lancé. Ce mardi 8 octobre 2024 le ministre des Armées, monsieur Sébastien Lecornu, a officiellement annoncé que la France livrera Aéronefs Militaires

www.avionslegendaires.net

 

[Spitfire9]

France to transfer up to 20 Mirage 2000 to Ukraine in 2025, - Avionslegendaires

L'Ukraine obtiendra ses Dassault Aviation Mirage 2000-5F en 2025. — avionslegendaires.net

Le 9 octobre 2024, par Arnaud. Le compte à rebours est lancé. Ce mardi 8 octobre 2024 le ministre des Armées, monsieur Sébastien Lecornu, a officiellement annoncé que la France livrera Aéronefs Militaires

www.avionslegendaires.net

I hope M2K does not use Link 16. If the report linked below is true, US is refusing Ukraine permission to use Link 16 on its F-16's.

US still refuses to provide Link 16 for Ukrainian F-16 jets

As Ukraine continues to bolster its defenses, having cutting-edge communication systems like advanced communication systems such as Link 16 are crucial.

bulgarianmilitary.com

 

[Ryder]

Listening to various informed analysts, I hear that Russia is offering men over $10,000 equivalent in parts of the Russian Federation to sign up for the army. I hear that recruitment is around 1,000 a day. With that number of voluntary recruits, Russia will not run out of soldiers. Non-Russian sources report casualties of around a thousand a day, many of who will recover and be returned to service.

I don't see the spectre of needing to mobilise worrying Putin. I do see the ongoing transfer of labour away from production of goods and services - already starved of labour - as something that will worry Putin more and more.

Russian Military ads are now targeting Ethnic Non Russians and their religious minorities like Muslims, Jews and Buddhists.

 

[Ryder]

Distrust between Russians and Kadyrovs private army.

If these guys do turn against each other is it another wagner like revolt?

 

[Sanchez]

The Russians lived in Crimea for thousand years

Lie.

 

[UkroTurk]

I hope M2K does not use Link 16. If the report linked below is true, US is refusing Ukraine permission to use Link 16 on its F-16's.

US still refuses to provide Link 16 for Ukrainian F-16 jets

As Ukraine continues to bolster its defenses, having cutting-edge communication systems like advanced communication systems such as Link 16 are crucial.

bulgarianmilitary.com

Getting more F-16s is only half the battle. Ukraine also desperately needs to be training more pilots


Ukraine desperately needs more trained pilots to build a more capable and formidable fleet of F-16 fighters, aviation experts say.
Problems with training Ukrainian pilots among Ukraine's international partners risk the country having more planes than the people to fly them to do their jobs, Business Insider reports.

RAND Corporation analyst Michael Bohnert says integrating the F-16 or any other new type of fighter into the Ukrainian Air Force "requires a lot of effort, time, training, and money that is often overlooked:

"A lot of people think, 'Oh, just give them the fighters and they'll be fine.' That's not true. Hardware is only part of what it takes to build a fighter fleet."

Retired U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Gordon Skip Davis, who served as NATO's deputy assistant secretary general for defense investment, said the number of trained Ukrainian pilots is "a big problem" for Ukraine's F-16 program.

 

[Relic]

Germany , Belgium , Norway and Denmark collectively announced a new military aid package for Ukraine today valued $1.5 Billion usd. The package consists of the following...

- Skynex Air Defense Systems
- Gepard Air Defense Systems
- Undisclosed Main Battle Tanks
- Undisclosed Armored Vehichles
- Panzerhaubitze 2000 Howitzers
- Reconnaissance Drones
- RADAR Systems
- IRIS-T Missiles
- 155mm Artillery Shells

The package in it's entirely will be delivered before the end of 2024.

Germany’s Scholz offers €1.4B in fresh military aid for Ukraine during Zelenskyy visit

The Ukrainian leader visited Berlin to present his peace plan to the German chancellor.

www.politico.eu

 

[Spitfire9]

Training is a problem. To be useful to Ukraine, however, do pilots need to be trained fully in every aspect of NATO-style use of the F-16? Keeping pilots chasing cruise missiles and glide bombs well away from Russian air defence threats, for example, would be very useful. Again, low risk stand off attacks using glide bombs and missiles would also be useful. Using the F-16's for anything the MiG-29's ,Su-24's would otherwise need to do would help. And while the F-16's are engaged on those tasks, their pilots are building hours and experience.