Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Huelague]

The problem for stopping this conflict is that the current Russian regime is likely to attack again in the future. Without a defence pact guarantee by major powers (if Ukraine is attacked, the powers will respond as if they were attacked), any cessation of hostilities in Ukraine is likely to be temporary.

At the end of the party, what have all the involved parties/countries win or lost?

 

[Huelague]

You can’t win against Russia by a permanently defence stance.

 

[SilverMachine]

Nothing good's going to come from a "permanently aggressive" stance, either.

Someone said something smart at the very start of this war, forget who: "the only thing more dangerous than Russia winning this, is Russia losing".

They're getting Crimea, they're getting the Donbass, maybe a little more. Them's the facts, Jack, as Biden would say. It's just a matter of how painful/painless we want to make it for the Ukrainians, and a matter of whether we're dumb enough to escalate it into more than it needs to be, involving more countries as actual frontline belligerents.

 

[Spitfire9]

You can’t win against Russia by a permanently defence stance.

Being a member of a militarily strong defence pact can stop Russia attacking you. NATO has shown that.

 

[Soldier30]

Russian Su-35S fighters and Su-34 fighter-bombers began performing paired sorties in the Kursk region of Russia. The Su-35S fighters are armed with an R-77-1 air-to-air missile and a long-range R-37M missile. The aircraft is also equipped with Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles.

 

[Huelague]

"permanently aggressive" stance, either.

Who said permanently aggressive stance?

 

[Huelague]

Being a member of a militarily strong defence pact can stop Russia attacking you. NATO has shown that.

I mean on the battlefield. You cant win a boxing fight just with defence, in the hope that anytime, your opponent will fall to the ground, if he is tired enough.
Btw, Ukraine is not part of NATO.

 

[blackjack]

Take long break and of course nothing happens but seems I am back with the perfect timing of multiple locations falling into Russia's hands even though it's the season right now where it is muddy in Ukraine slowing any advancement

Still of course too early to call it the beginning of the end soon

 

[Relic]

Norway announced a new $550 million usd aid package for Ukraine. It will consist of the following:

- F-16 Fighter Jets (6 of which will be transferred this year).

- NASAMS Air Defense Systems.

- $118 million usd worth of weapons and spare parts for F-16s.

Norway's € 500 million military aid package to Ukraine to include NASAMS, not only F-16s - Euromaidan Press

The package reportedly includes F-16 fighters, NASAMS air defense systems, and defense industry investment.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[SilverMachine]

Who said permanently aggressive stance?

Considering you're advocating against a "permanently defensive" one, it seemed on point to call out the folly of the opposite, too.

In any case, unless we want to go full-on WWIII over Ukraine on principle and kill half the planet, Russia's winning in one form or another in Ukraine. It is what it is. Just a matter of whether we want to rip the band-aid off quickly and make it as easy as possible on the Ukrainians, or draw it out another few more years with a a higher body count and Ukraine ends up in negotiation talks from an even weaker position to save at least Kyiv anyway.

 

[FiReFTW]

Considering you're advocating against a "permanently defensive" one, it seemed on point to call out the folly of the opposite, too.

In any case, unless we want to go full-on WWIII over Ukraine on principle and kill half the planet, Russia's winning in one form or another in Ukraine. It is what it is. Just a matter of whether we want to rip the band-aid off quickly and make it as easy as possible on the Ukrainians, or draw it out another few more years with a a higher body count and Ukraine ends up in negotiation talks from an even weaker position to save at least Kyiv anyway.

Bro don't you understand they don't care at all about how many ukranians die or how much ukraine losses in the end, their only goal is that as many russians as possible die and the most damage is done to Russia.

 

[SilverMachine]

I'm not quite as cynical as to say the *only* reason this is continuing is to drain Russia and the west doesn't give a fuck about Ukrainians whatsoever, but forcing Russia to expend a bunch of hardware is definitely a part of this.

Thing is, most of their hardware's old and crap anyway, they've re-organized the military significantly since the start of this thing and are going to be more powerful after it than before it, and production's amped up bigtime anyway. It's not a winning strategy for the west, especially when you've got China & NK providing them with all the low-level expendable shit a country could ever want in wartime.

There's genuine affection for Ukraine in the west and a principled stand on "you can't just go take another country, post-1945". Thing is, that's horseshit and a bunch of countries have done that post-'45 anyway, might is right at a certain point, national interests are all that matters, and there's always a winner and a loser.

Russia's going to be the winner here, because we're not willing to kick into World War 3 mode and kill millions over "basically-Russia-anyway/Russia Jr". The western part of Ukraine will stay Ukraine, the eastern part becomes Russia, Ukraine will never be let into NATO, and Putin gets his buffer zone on a condition of "never be dumb enough to go into Poland or we WILL fuck you up this time." from NATO. That'll be the score here in a year or two, bet on it.

 

[Relic]

USA announced a significant new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $425 million usd. The package consists of the following:

- 200 Stryker APCs
- Vampire Counter UAS Systems
- AIM-9X Missiles (NASAMS)
- AIM-120 AMRAAM Missiles (NASAMS)
- Stinger Anti-Aircraft Missiles
- JDAMS / JSOW Munitions
- GMLRS (HIMARS)
- TOW Missiles (Bradleys)
- 155mm Artillery Shells
- 105mm Artillery Shells
- Javelin Anti-Armor Systems
- AT-4 Anti-Armor Systems
- Small Arms
- Small Arms Munitions
- Medical Equipment
- Demolitions Equipment and Munitions
- Spare Parts and Ancillary Equipment
- Services and Transportation

This is a substantial package and the type that the infuriates the Russians. The Ukrainians have used their Striker APCs extremely effectively and they were initially given 200 of them. Of those initial 200 they've lost 27 of them in combat, but a further 200 units gives Ukraine 370+ Strikers, by far the most they've ever had. At the same time, Russia is burning through their BMPs at an alarming rate they have no hope of replenishing. I've been calling for this type of package for a while so I'm glad the Americans are facilitating it.

Next up, we need to see a similar package with Bradley IFVs. Another 200-300 of them to help equip the additional 14 Brigades that Ukraine is in the process of preparing from their recent recruitment drive.

USA now has approximately $4 billion usd worth of Presidential Drawdown Authority left that they can send Ukraine. The Biden Government has increased the frequency of the packages they're sending the Ukrainians as the elections nears. In case Trump wins, the Americans want to make sure they've sent all of the material that Congress has approved under PDA before the G7's $50 Billion loan takes over as the primary funding mechanism for the Ukrainian military.

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs.

www.defense.gov

 

[Huelague]

Considering you're advocating against a "permanently defensive" one, it seemed on point to call out the folly of the opposite, too.

No, it’s always has to be between both. Defence and Offense.

 

[Huelague]

USA announced a significant new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $425 million usd. The package consists of the following:

- 200 Stryker APCs
- Vampire Counter UAS Systems
- AIM-9X Missiles (NASAMS)
- AIM-120 AMRAAM Missiles (NASAMS)
- Stinger Anti-Aircraft Missiles
- JDAMS / JSOW Munitions
- GMLRS (HIMARS)
- TOW Missiles (Bradleys)
- 155mm Artillery Shells
- 105mm Artillery Shells
- Javelin Anti-Armor Systems
- AT-4 Anti-Armor Systems
- Small Arms
- Small Arms Munitions
- Medical Equipment
- Demolitions Equipment and Munitions
- Spare Parts and Ancillary Equipment
- Services and Transportation

This is a substantial package and the type that the infuriates the Russians. The Ukrainians have used their Striker APCs extremely effectively and they were initially given 200 of them. Of those initial 200 they've lost 27 of them in combat, but a further 200 units gives Ukraine 370+ Strikers, by far the most they've ever had. At the same time, Russia is burning through their BMPs at an alarming rate they have no hope of replenishing. I've been calling for this type of package for a while so I'm glad the Americans are facilitating it.

Next up, we need to see a similar package with Bradley IFVs. Another 200-300 of them to help equip the additional 14 Brigades that Ukraine is in the process of preparing from their recent recruitment drive.

USA now has approximately $4 billion usd worth of Presidential Drawdown Authority left that they can send Ukraine. The Biden Government has increased the frequency of the packages they're sending the Ukrainians as the elections nears. In case Trump wins, the Americans want to make sure they've sent all of the material that Congress has approved under PDA before the G7's $50 Billion loan takes over as the primary funding mechanism for the Ukrainian military.

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs.

www.defense.gov

Nice package. Do Ukraine has enough manpower to use them?

 

[Relic]

Nice package. Do Ukraine has enough manpower to use them?

They have quietly conscripted 160,000 additional soldiers, with a goal of 250,000 by the spring of 2025. Many of those soldiers will be used to replenish their existing brigades, however, they are in the process of creating 14 additional 2000+ member brigades that are being trained across Europe and who will be equipped with Western armor and artillery. This is what we know about those new Brigades to this point.

France is training and equipping two of the Brigades. The 155th Mechanized Brigade is made up of 2300 soldiers and is being trained in France as we speak. The brigade, along with their French armor and artillery will be transferred back to Ukraine for combat duty around Christmas 2024. The Brigade will feature 18x AMX-10RC light tanks, 13x T-64 MBTs (Ukrainian units being restored in the Czech Republic ,) 18x CAESAR 155mm self-propelled howitzers, roughly 90x VAB APCs, Milan ATGMs, etc.

France has committed to training and equipping a "sister" brigade of the 155th that will have a similar composition. That Brigade will be numbered in the 160's and will arrive in France to begin their training after the 155th has completed their training.

USA and Australia are equipping an undisclosed Brigade with 31x M1A1 Abrams MBTs. The other 18x M1A1s that Australia is donating will go to the 49th Mechanized Brigade to replenish their M1A1 losses in combat. The Australian MBTs will be paired with roughly 100x Striker and M113s APCs and 18x domestically produced Bohdana 2 155mm self-propelled howitzers.

I expect that another Brigade will be equipped by USA with the remainder of the Striker and M113 APCs that have been announced in recent packages, but we've yet to hear what MBTs and artillery will fill out the Brigade.

Sweden recently sent 200 PVB-302 APCs to Ukraine and they will equip an Infantry Brigade with APCs, however, we don't know what IFVs, MBTs or Artillery they will be paired with.

Germany and Denmark are also equipping a tank brigade. It's likely to feature 62x upgraded Leopard 1A5 MBTs, 40+ Marder IFVs and an unknown number of Dingo APCs.

It's rumoured that another brigade is being compiled from equipment being prodived by Poland , Czech Republic and Finland , but the details of the equipment that the brigade will feature has yet to be released. That said, it's believed to be T-72 and PT-91 Twardy MBTs, Rosomak / SISU IFVs and Bohdana 2 155mm self-propelled howitzers.

Obviously that isn't a comprehensive answer, nor has the equipment for 14 new brigades been publically allocated, but that's what we know so far.

 

[blackjack]

Geez more f-16s, did they even fly them yet this spring, it's already going to be winter. Thought a lesson was learned when iran blew up some F-35s in Israel with 1000 more BMs ready in use to go when needed.

 

[contricusc]

Russia's going to be the winner here, because we're not willing to kick into World War 3 mode and kill millions over "basically-Russia-anyway/Russia Jr". The western part of Ukraine will stay Ukraine, the eastern part becomes Russia, Ukraine will never be let into NATO, and Putin gets his buffer zone on a condition of "never be dumb enough to go into Poland or we WILL fuck you up this time." from NATO. That'll be the score here in a year or two, bet on it.

This is so wrong, I don’t even know where to start.

First of all, Ukraine is not “basically-Russia-anyway/Russia Jr". Maybe it is in the eyes of some uneducated MAGA Trumpists, but they would think the same about the Baltic countries as well. Ukrainians have decided they want to part ways with Russia and be part of the Western world, so treating them as if they are “Russia Jr.“ is the worst kind of elitism and arrogant thinking.

Also, the ridiculous fearmongering about WW3 if NATO actually helps Ukraine win the war is another stupid excuse. Russia could lose this war without starting WW3 or a nuclear war, and withdraw from Ukraine, just like the US left Vietnam when the situation was unsustainable. Why was it ok back then for the Soviet Union to help the Viet Kong win the war (without starting WW3), but now if NATO helps Ukraine win the war it means WW3 will start?

If Ukraine would receive what it needs and the right to use the weapons effectively, it could clearly win the war. But unfortunatelly many people think like you and FireFTW, that Russia cannot be defeated without starting WW3. The ones who should have thought about not starting WW3 were the Russians before they invaded. Now it is on them to avoid WW3 from starting, not on NATO.

Ukraine should receive long range weapons and be allowed (and helped with targetting) to hit deep inside Russia, until Putin and his regime realize it is to their benefit to withdraw from the whole of Ukraine, like they did from the Kyiv region.

The only reason why Russia may win this war is because the West has no backbone and is run by a bunch of cowards. It is absolutly mindblogging that the weaker side (Russia) keeps bluffing and threatening, while the stronger side (NATO) cowers in fear and is afraid of escalation.

 

[SilverMachine]

Of course it's "basically Russia anyway/Russia Jr" in terms of practicalities. We like to say otherwise, and it's noble, but we're not blowing up the world to salvage Ukraine anymore than Russia's going to die on the hill of Canada or whatever being free of U.S. influence.

You seem to not get that "winning this war" is either A) totally amorphous as a goal, no real set clear aims/victory points, and B) likely to be as much of a pyrrhic victory as Russia invading them in the first place. If you go all-in on this, Ukraine "wins" on-paper/legally as an entity but the entire place is fucked for 10 generations and like 5% of their population continues to exist. Not a "win" for them, only a "win" for us outside Ukraine in the sense that Russia's got a serious bloody nose.

"Stronger" and "weaker" isn't always the name of the game. Everyone here is in agreement that NATO's stronger than the Russian Federation (even with its Chinese, North Korean & Iranian backers), that's not some revelation, you're not being intelligent in pointing it out. No shit, that's not the point. The point is smarter people than you know where this leads if we go to a hot war over...fucking *Ukraine* of all places, and said smarter people in general are aware it's not worth a war of the scale we haven't seen since '45. We like Ukrainians, we think they should be free. Also...tough shit at a certain point, life sucks and them's the breaks. Eventually negotiate with them or die, an occupied Ukraine is hardly anything new over the last three centuries and we're not setting the continent ablaze with war to save quasi-Russia.

Principles and morals are great and all. Every country, every great power, breaks them constantly when pragmatism raises its ugly head. This is one of those times - not in NATO? Tough, we'll do what we can to a point, beyond that you're not enough of a priority. Welcome to humanity. Russia having a buffer zone on their western flank has always been baked into the cake, it's both unwritten and accepted by everyone as how things have to be. Obama fucking around in Ukraine wasn't smart from the start, now Ukraine pays, it is what it is - even if Putin's "in the wrong" (he is) for the brutal crackdown.

 

[Spitfire9]

You seem to not get that "winning this war" is either A) totally amorphous as a goal, no real set clear aims/victory points, and B) likely to be as much of a pyrrhic victory as Russia invading them in the first place. If you go all-in on this, Ukraine "wins" on-paper/legally as an entity but the entire place is fucked for 10 generations and like 5% of their population continues to exist. Not a "win" for them, only a "win" for us outside Ukraine in the sense that Russia's got a serious bloody nose.

As someone with extended family in Ukraine (one dead after Russia 'liberated' the area in which they lived), I think that most Ukrainians see their country being 'liberated' by Russia as the worst form of loss they can imagine.

Russia has killed, kidnapped, destroyed, so Ukraine cannot now do anything but lose. The worst possible loss for Ukraine would be their freedom and identity being lost, too. Winning would be continuing to exist.