Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Huelague]

The problem for stopping this conflict is that the current Russian regime is likely to attack again in the future. Without a defence pact guarantee by major powers (if Ukraine is attacked, the powers will respond as if they were attacked), any cessation of hostilities in Ukraine is likely to be temporary.

At the end of the party, what have all the involved parties/countries win or lost?

 

[Huelague]

You can’t win against Russia by a permanently defence stance.

 

[SilverMachine]

Nothing good's going to come from a "permanently aggressive" stance, either.

Someone said something smart at the very start of this war, forget who: "the only thing more dangerous than Russia winning this, is Russia losing".

They're getting Crimea, they're getting the Donbass, maybe a little more. Them's the facts, Jack, as Biden would say. It's just a matter of how painful/painless we want to make it for the Ukrainians, and a matter of whether we're dumb enough to escalate it into more than it needs to be, involving more countries as actual frontline belligerents.

 

[Spitfire9]

You can’t win against Russia by a permanently defence stance.

Being a member of a militarily strong defence pact can stop Russia attacking you. NATO has shown that.

 

[Soldier30]

Russian Su-35S fighters and Su-34 fighter-bombers began performing paired sorties in the Kursk region of Russia. The Su-35S fighters are armed with an R-77-1 air-to-air missile and a long-range R-37M missile. The aircraft is also equipped with Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles.

 

[Huelague]

"permanently aggressive" stance, either.

Who said permanently aggressive stance?

 

[Huelague]

Being a member of a militarily strong defence pact can stop Russia attacking you. NATO has shown that.

I mean on the battlefield. You cant win a boxing fight just with defence, in the hope that anytime, your opponent will fall to the ground, if he is tired enough.
Btw, Ukraine is not part of NATO.

 

[blackjack]

Take long break and of course nothing happens but seems I am back with the perfect timing of multiple locations falling into Russia's hands even though it's the season right now where it is muddy in Ukraine slowing any advancement

Still of course too early to call it the beginning of the end soon

 

[Relic]

Norway announced a new $550 million usd aid package for Ukraine. It will consist of the following:

- F-16 Fighter Jets (6 of which will be transferred this year).

- NASAMS Air Defense Systems.

- $118 million usd worth of weapons and spare parts for F-16s.

Norway's € 500 million military aid package to Ukraine to include NASAMS, not only F-16s - Euromaidan Press

The package reportedly includes F-16 fighters, NASAMS air defense systems, and defense industry investment.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[SilverMachine]

Who said permanently aggressive stance?

Considering you're advocating against a "permanently defensive" one, it seemed on point to call out the folly of the opposite, too.

In any case, unless we want to go full-on WWIII over Ukraine on principle and kill half the planet, Russia's winning in one form or another in Ukraine. It is what it is. Just a matter of whether we want to rip the band-aid off quickly and make it as easy as possible on the Ukrainians, or draw it out another few more years with a a higher body count and Ukraine ends up in negotiation talks from an even weaker position to save at least Kyiv anyway.

 

[FiReFTW]

Considering you're advocating against a "permanently defensive" one, it seemed on point to call out the folly of the opposite, too.

In any case, unless we want to go full-on WWIII over Ukraine on principle and kill half the planet, Russia's winning in one form or another in Ukraine. It is what it is. Just a matter of whether we want to rip the band-aid off quickly and make it as easy as possible on the Ukrainians, or draw it out another few more years with a a higher body count and Ukraine ends up in negotiation talks from an even weaker position to save at least Kyiv anyway.

Bro don't you understand they don't care at all about how many ukranians die or how much ukraine losses in the end, their only goal is that as many russians as possible die and the most damage is done to Russia.

 

[SilverMachine]

I'm not quite as cynical as to say the *only* reason this is continuing is to drain Russia and the west doesn't give a fuck about Ukrainians whatsoever, but forcing Russia to expend a bunch of hardware is definitely a part of this.

Thing is, most of their hardware's old and crap anyway, they've re-organized the military significantly since the start of this thing and are going to be more powerful after it than before it, and production's amped up bigtime anyway. It's not a winning strategy for the west, especially when you've got China & NK providing them with all the low-level expendable shit a country could ever want in wartime.

There's genuine affection for Ukraine in the west and a principled stand on "you can't just go take another country, post-1945". Thing is, that's horseshit and a bunch of countries have done that post-'45 anyway, might is right at a certain point, national interests are all that matters, and there's always a winner and a loser.

Russia's going to be the winner here, because we're not willing to kick into World War 3 mode and kill millions over "basically-Russia-anyway/Russia Jr". The western part of Ukraine will stay Ukraine, the eastern part becomes Russia, Ukraine will never be let into NATO, and Putin gets his buffer zone on a condition of "never be dumb enough to go into Poland or we WILL fuck you up this time." from NATO. That'll be the score here in a year or two, bet on it.