Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[SilverMachine]

A little skeptical in the sense that first it was "1000" now it's "2000", but yeah, rising casualty numbers do make sense in recent weeks. The qualifier of course being that that's because there's been a lot of fighting and Russia's beaten back the Ukrainians to take more of their land, so...

 

[Soldier30]

An episode of the movement of a column and landing of troops of the Russian BMP-2 in Novoivanovka, Kursk region of Russia. The BMP-2 as part of a column consisting of a T-72 tank and five BMP-2s broke through to Ukrainian positions in the settlements of Zeleny Shlyakh and Novoivanovka. The column split into two parts, during the movement of the column one of the tanks was hit by a strike, presumably by a drone, it is not clear from the video how much the tank was damaged. The video shows the landing of troops from the Russian BMP-2 in the village of Novoivanovka and the attack of a Ukrainian grenade launcher from behind a building, as noted in the video. The BMP-2 was attacked twice, the first grenade launcher strike was tangential, the second grenade launcher shot into the ground. The BMP-2 was not damaged and landed troops.

 

[MaciekRS]

It looks like Trump is choosing interesting people
"Pete Hegseth, Trump's pick for Defense Secretary, criticized the Biden Administration for not arming Ukraine quickly enough, and called Putin a "war criminal" trying to reconstitute the Soviet Union. "Ceasefires? You know what ceasefires are for him? An opportunity to reload""

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1856507992725680296

I'm not surprized that russia is in hurry to recapture Kursk at all cost. Grandpa "dont do shit to not escalate" Biden is going away.

 

[Woland]

It looks like Trump is choosing interesting people
"Pete Hegseth, Trump's pick for Defense Secretary, criticized the Biden Administration for not arming Ukraine quickly enough, and called Putin a "war criminal" trying to reconstitute the Soviet Union. "Ceasefires? You know what ceasefires are for him? An opportunity to reload""

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1856507992725680296

I'm not surprized that russia is in hurry to recapture Kursk at all cost. Grandpa "dont do shit to not escalate" Biden is going away.

It's a mixed bag. Here's what we know:

Neocons:
- Secretary of State - Marco Rubio. Supports Ukraine in essence, but wants clearly defined objectives and more action from Europe. Voted against Ukraine aid Supplemental in April 2024. Experienced politician, supported by traditional Republicans but not MAGA Republicans.
- National Security Advisor - Mike Waltz. An ex-Green Beret, he mostly supported providing Ukraine with weapons, though criticized "lack of oversight" and the lack of action from Europe. Voted against the Supplemental. There was a interview with him last month where he spoke a lot about Ukraine.
- CIA Director - John Ratcliffe. There's not much about John Ratcliffe and Ukraine, except this policy paper he wrote together with General Kellogg in late 2022:
It's very inline with Mike Waltz's and Marco Rubio's views; The US should stand with Ukraine, but Europe should be doing more, clear policy objectives should be stated, and without it aid should not be provided.
- Special envoy for war in Ukraine - Brian Hook, lawyer who served in the Republican administrations of George W. Bush as Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs, under Donald Trump as Special Representative for Iran, and was a senior adviser to Mitt Romney's foreign policy campaign.

MAGA:
- Director of National Intelligence - Tulsi Gabbard. Gabbard is a Putin and Assad apologist.

???
- Secretary of Defense - Pete Hegseth. There's limited information about his views on Ukraine, in part because he's a news anchor rather than a politician. We do know that he has been dismissive of supporting Ukraine though: 1, 2. He has minimal experience and the off-the-record reaction from Republicans to his nomination was shock. He's very strange and inexperienced.

Cabinet positions need to be confirmed by the Senate. Both Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard might run into difficulties, especially now that voting has finished and the Senate Majority Leader is McConell's protege John Thune.

 

[blackjack]

It looks like Trump is choosing interesting people
"Pete Hegseth, Trump's pick for Defense Secretary, criticized the Biden Administration for not arming Ukraine quickly enough, and called Putin a "war criminal" trying to reconstitute the Soviet Union. "Ceasefires? You know what ceasefires are for him? An opportunity to reload""

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1856507992725680296

I'm not surprized that russia is in hurry to recapture Kursk at all cost. Grandpa "dont do shit to not escalate" Biden is going away.

It's a mixed bag. Here's what we know:

Neocons:
- Secretary of State - Marco Rubio. Supports Ukraine in essence, but wants clearly defined objectives and more action from Europe. Voted against Ukraine aid Supplemental in April 2024. Experienced politician, supported by traditional Republicans but not MAGA Republicans.
- National Security Advisor - Mike Waltz. An ex-Green Beret, he mostly supported providing Ukraine with weapons, though criticized "lack of oversight" and the lack of action from Europe. Voted against the Supplemental. There was a interview with him last month where he spoke a lot about Ukraine.
- CIA Director - John Ratcliffe. There's not much about John Ratcliffe and Ukraine, except this policy paper he wrote together with General Kellogg in late 2022:
It's very inline with Mike Waltz's and Marco Rubio's views; The US should stand with Ukraine, but Europe should be doing more, clear policy objectives should be stated, and without it aid should not be provided.
- Special envoy for war in Ukraine - Brian Hook, lawyer who served in the Republican administrations of George W. Bush as Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs, under Donald Trump as Special Representative for Iran, and was a senior adviser to Mitt Romney's foreign policy campaign.

MAGA:
- Director of National Intelligence - Tulsi Gabbard. Gabbard is a Putin and Assad apologist.

???
- Secretary of Defense - Pete Hegseth. There's limited information about his views on Ukraine, in part because he's a news anchor rather than a politician. We do know that he has been dismissive of supporting Ukraine though: 1, 2. He has minimal experience and the off-the-record reaction from Republicans to his nomination was shock. He's very strange and inexperienced.

Cabinet positions need to be confirmed by the Senate. Both Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard might run into difficulties, especially now that voting has finished and the Senate Majority Leader is McConell's protege John Thune.

in the end this guy right here is the commander in chief.

i dont think the cabinet choice matters as much as republicans that are given the house or senate that support Ukraine matters since the decision on spending bills is this guy.

 

[Anastasius]

in the end this guy right here is the commander in chief.
View attachment 72037
i dont think the cabinet choice matters as much as republicans that are given the house or senate that support Ukraine matters since the decision on spending bills is this guy.

Yeah, not really. Unlike Russia, US has a thing called checks-and-balances specifically designed to stop the president from making decisions with zero opposition.

 

[blackjack]

Yeah, not really. Unlike Russia, US has a thing called checks-and-balances specifically designed to stop the president from making decisions with zero opposition.

i don't think you know what a cabinet position is and who appoints them.

 

[Woland]

i don't think you know what a cabinet position is and who appoints them.

I don't think you read the post above even though you responded to it, as it answers this very point. All cabinet positions have to go before the Senate for a hearing, followed by a vote. A majority is required before any cabinet-level position is approved. In the Senate Republicans are 53 to Democrats 47, meaning 4 Republicans can stop a cabinet position nominee (since Vice President breaks ties).

The only way around this is to recess the Senate and appoint a cabinet-level nominee during the recess. Recesses have to be approved by the Senate Majority Leader. Prior to being chosen as Senate Majority Leader, Thune indicated that he may not be opposed: “We must act quickly and decisively to get the president’s nominees in place as soon as possible, & all options are on the table to make that happen, including recess appointments. We cannot let Schumer and Senate Dems block the will of the American people.” However the decision rests with him now, not Trump alone.

 

[blackjack]

I don't think you read the post above even though you responded to it, as it answers this very point. All cabinet positions have to go before the Senate for a hearing, followed by a vote. A majority is required before any cabinet-level position is approved. In the Senate Republicans are 53 to Democrats 47, meaning 4 Republicans can stop a cabinet position nominee (since Vice President breaks ties).

The only way around this is to recess the Senate and appoint a cabinet-level nominee during the recess. Recesses have to be approved by the Senate Majority Leader. Prior to being chosen as Senate Majority Leader, Thune indicated that he may not be opposed: “We must act quickly and decisively to get the president’s nominees in place as soon as possible, & all options are on the table to make that happen, including recess appointments. We cannot let Schumer and Senate Dems block the will of the American people.” However the decision rests with him now, not Trump alone.

Trump signs the 60 billion dollar check, you have the Senate and house ruled by Republicans. Good luck. I don't think his cabinet members pass the bills as far as I am aware

 

[Kartal1]

BIG: A briefing prepared for Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence suggests Ukraine could develop a basic nuclear bomb within months if U.S. military support is withdrawn.

Using plutonium extracted from spent nuclear reactor fuel, Ukraine could potentially construct a weapon similar in design to the “Fat Man” bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945.

According to Oleksii Yizhak of Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, Ukraine has enough reactor plutonium to make hundreds of low-yield warheads, capable of targeting military bases or infrastructure.

Source: The Times

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1856734778919207279

 

[blackjack]

They don't have any uranium enrichment and the development of the required centifuge trains is both unaffordable and beyond their technical abilities. They could try to make plutonium by irridating fuel assemblies in their remaining RMBK reactors (which unlike PWRs can have fuel rods inserted/removed while the reactor is online and generating electrical power) but where would they get the fuel rod assemblies, and how would they then process the hot fuel rods and separate out the plutonium? AFAIK attempts by Westinghhouse to develop rods for Ukraine reactors has been a failure, and Ukraine doesn't have fuel reprocessing facilities (fuel supplies came from Russia).