Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

Today, U.S. Whitehouse Representative Sabrina Singh confirmed what had been first reported by Politico... The Biden Government will, in fact, surge the remaining PDA and USAI aid to Ukraine. She noted that they have approximately 70 days to make it happen and that U.S. military logistics will be put to the test to ensure Ukraine receives as much aid as possible before Trump takes over.

As a reminder, that includes a little more than $4 Billion usd worth of PDA and more than $2 Billion usd worth of USAI.

Expect to see both the size and rapidity of the packages announced to increase drastically in the coming weeks.

DOD Will Work Quickly to Meet President's 'Surge' Commitment to Ukraine Support

The surge includes plans to ensure all remaining congressionally authorized funding to support Ukraine be transferred to Ukraine before the administration closes out activities in January.

www.defense.gov

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the evacuation of a Ukrainian M1A1 SA Abrams tank, American-made, by two Russian tanks, the model of the tanks is unknown. The M1A1 Abrams tank was previously used by the 47th separate mechanized brigade "Magura" of the Ukrainian army, under what conditions it was lost is unknown, presumably the tank ran over a mine. The weight of the M1A1 SA Abrams tank is about 61 tons, plus additional Soviet dynamic protection. Apparently, the tank could not be evacuated using an ARV, so two tanks were used.

 

[UkroTurk]

Trump has a "more sophisticated" position on Ukraine than is attributed to him - Scholz


20:44, 15.11.24


Scholz does not see a threat to Ukraine in the person of Trump



The German chancellor did not hear in a conversation with Trump his intention to betray the Ukrainians.



Donald Trump has a "more sophisticated position" regarding Ukraine than is attributed to him. This was stated by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in an interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung.

"I got the impression that he has a more sophisticated position than is often assumed," Scholz said, referring to his conversation with Trump after his election victory.

The German chancellor also does not believe that Trump can make a specific deal with Vladimir Putin on Ukraine that bypasses Kyiv’s interests.


Zelensky: Scholz's call to Putin is a Pandora's box



19:39, 15.11.24



Zelensky commented on the dialogue between Putin and Scholz

According to Zelensky, it is extremely important for Putin to ease the isolation of the Russian Federation and conduct negotiations that will not end in anything.


German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told President Volodymyr Zelensky that he was going to call Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

Zelensky said this in an evening video address. "About one of today's news items. Chancellor Scholz told me that he was going to call Putin. Olaf's call, in my opinion, is a Pandora's box. Now there can be other conversations, other calls. Just a lot of words," he said.

According to Zelensky, this is exactly what Putin has long wanted: it is extremely important for him to ease the isolation of the Russian Federation and conduct negotiations that will not end in anything.




The Kremlin commented on Putin and Scholz talks

November 15, 2024, 17:52




Scholz and Putin spoke for the first time since December 2022


Vladimir Putin and Olaf Scholz held a "detailed and frank exchange of views" on the situation in Ukraine.





Moscow confirmed that Russian leader Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Its main topic was the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin press service reported on Friday, November 15.



It was indicated that a "detailed and frank exchange of views on the situation in Ukraine" was held. At the same time, Putin traditionally blamed NATO for everything, which allegedly created an anti-Russian bridgehead in Ukraine and ignored Russia's interests in the security sphere.



According to him, Russia is ready for negotiations, and its demands have long been known.



"Possible agreements must take into account the interests of the Russian Federation in the security sphere, proceed from new territorial realities, and most importantly, eliminate the root causes of the conflict," Putin said.



The Russian dictator also complained about the "unprecedented degradation in all areas" of relations between Russia and Germany and accused Berlin of "an unfriendly course."



"It was agreed that following the conversation, the leaders' aides will be in touch," the Kremlin added.

 

[blackjack]

interesting statistics.



The video recorded lancet strikes for half this month is very low but at the same time they are already making new records in seizing more land.

@Relic is there a specific time or date that Ukraine is planned to get more howitzers, tanks, MLRS systems or not yet?

 

[UkroTurk]

Zelensky made a statement on the end of the war

Text: Konstantin Katyshev, November 16, 2024, 13:01

Зеленский сделал заявление по окончанию войны

Украина должна иметь сильную позицию на потенциальных переговорах с Россией и не быть наедине со страной-агрессором, отметил президент.

korrespondent.net

President Volodymyr Zelensky:

Ukraine must have a strong position in potential negotiations with Russia and not be alone with the aggressor country, the president noted.

Ukraine must do everything to end the war through diplomatic means in 2025. President Volodymyr Zelensky said this in an interview with Ukrainian Radio, published on Saturday, November 16.



"For our part, we must do everything to ensure that this war ends next year. Ends through diplomatic means. And I think this is very important," he said.

At the same time, the head of state emphasized that Ukraine should have a strong position in potential negotiations with Russia and not be alone with the aggressor country.

"What kind of negotiations can there be with a murderer? If we talk directly with Putin, just with a murderer, we are in the conditions in which we are now, not strengthened by some important elements, then this is a losing status of negotiations for Ukraine at the entrance," he said and added that "in a weak situation there is nothing to do in these negotiations."

Zelensky emphasized that the position of newly elected US President Donald Trump towards Ukraine is important and emphasized that the United States is currently on Ukraine's side.

In his opinion, the United States should maintain a position of support that Ukraine is a victim, and Russia is an aggressor and violator of international law. This should be one of the starting points for negotiations on any platform.

Recall that Volodymyr Zelensky believes that the war will end sooner under the administration of new elected US President Donald Trump.



Under Trump, the war will end faster - Zelensky

Text: Konstantin Katyshev, November 15, 2024, 6:25 p.m.

При Трампі війна завершиться швидше - Зеленський

В української сторони була можливість аргументовано викласти свою позицію щодо бачення миру, зазначив президент.

ua.korrespondent.net

The Ukrainian side had an opportunity to state its position on the vision of peace in a reasoned manner, the president noted.

Russia's war against Ukraine may end sooner under the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, said this in an interview with Suspilnyi, published on Friday, November 15.



According to him, a constructive interaction has developed between him and Trump. The Ukrainian side had the opportunity to state its position on the vision of peace in a reasoned manner.

"He (Trump - ed.) has heard the basis on which we stand. I have not heard anything against our position," he said.

And when asked whether Trump demanded that Ukraine participate in negotiations with Russia, the president answered: "We are an independent country. And we, during this war, are our people, and I personally am in negotiations with the United States, and with Trump, and with Biden, and with European leaders - proved that the rhetoric of "Sit and listen" does not work with us."

According to Zelensky's expectations, under the Trump administration, "the war will end faster."

"It is very important for us to have a just peace, so that we do not feel that we have lost our best because of the injustice that has been imposed on you. The war will end, but there is no exact date. Certainly, with the policies of this team that will now lead the White House, the war will end sooner This is their approach, their promise to their society, and it is also very important for them," the Ukrainian leader summed up.

 

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1857708646165094804

 

[Saithan]

🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@militarynewsua.bsky.social)

⚡️The 🇺🇦Ukrainian 155-mm self-propelled howitzer 2S22 "Bogdana" manufactured with 🇩🇰Danish funds is in defense of democracy

bsky.app

Good for Ukraine, but Denmark is a disaster politicians have undermined the whole armed forces.

 

[Relic]

interesting statistics.
View attachment 72106
View attachment 72107

The video recorded lancet strikes for half this month is very low but at the same time they are already making new records in seizing more land.

@Relic is there a specific time or date that Ukraine is planned to get more howitzers, tanks, MLRS systems or not yet?

Currently, this is what we know.

France just finished training Ukraine's new 155th Mechanized Brigade in France. That brigade is on it's way back to Ukraine to join the fight. When exactly that will happen is obviously OPSEC that I'm not privileged to... The 155th Mechanized Brigade will feature a battery of 18 CAESAR 155mm self-propelled howitzers.

Meanwhile, Germany has the the following on order for Ukraine:

36x RCH-155mm
24x Panzerhaubitze 2000 155mm
14x Zuzana 2 155mm

Germany updates it's list of supplied items for Ukraine every month, around mid month. They've yet to update the list for November, but we suspect that the majority of those 74 units on order will be delivered throughout 2025, with only a few units being delivered during the last 6 weeks of 2024.

USA will almost certainly announce additional M109s and / or M777s in the coming weeks, as part of the $4+ Billion usd remaining in PDA that will be rushed to Ukraine before the Biden administration leaves office, but I have nothing firm to report at this point.

Lastly, Ukraine's domestic production of Bohdana 2 155mm howitzers should be considered, however, the actual number being produced monthly at this point is secretive. Zelensky has reported that Ukraine is building 20 new units per month. I'm going to call bullshit on that. I'm 100% convinced that their production levels have increased substantially but 20 units per month seems like an enormous stretch. I'm going to guess that they have now reached the capacity to produce somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of that number per month, which means 7-10 units. That sounds much more realistic to me. We know that Denmark financed the production of 18 Bohdana 2s and Norway recently financed the production of an undisclosed numbers as well. But the actual production rate and timeline remains secretive.

Sources

France wraps up training of new Ukrainian brigade — minister

The brigade is equipped with French weapons

www.google.com

Military support for Ukraine | Federal Government

War in Ukraine: This list provides an overview of Germany’s lethal and non-lethal military support for Ukraine.

www.bundesregierung.de

Ukraine produces 20 Bohdana howitzers per month, Zelensky says

"...The Danish model allows (us) to attract finance from our partners in Ukrainian defense production. For example, we’re now manufacturing almost 20 'Bohdana' artillery units monthly, with strong progress across other areas," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

kyivindependent.com

Ukrainian military receives 18 Bohdana howitzers financed by Denmark

Ukraine has received the 18 promised Bohdana self-propelled howitzers financed by Denmark, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen announced.

kyivindependent.com

Norway to support Ukrainian defence industry directly

Norway will support the production of military equipment within Ukraine. ‘This is crucial to ensure weapons and ammunition reach Ukrainian soldiers as quickly as possible,’ said Norwegian Defence Minister Bjørn Arild Gram. On Friday, he signed an agree...

www.regjeringen.no

 

[Relic]

France announced the completion of the training of the Ukrainian 155th Mechanized Brigade, which has spent the last 4 months training in France. The 155th is made up of 2300 newly mobilized Ukrainian soldiers and France is transferring the following equipment to Ukraine along with the brigade.

- 128x VAB APCs
- 18x AMX-10RC AFVs
- 18x CAESAR 155mm Howitzers
- 20x MILAN ATGMs
- 10x TRM 10000 Supply Trucks

France wraps up training of new Ukrainian brigade — minister

The brigade is equipped with French weapons

www.google.com

 

[UkroTurk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1858028301219987877

 

[Relic]

View attachment 72133

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1858028301219987877

It looks like the interception. Rate wad pretty good, with Ukraine recently receiving additional Patriot, NASAMs and IRIS-T batteries and their F-16s joining the fight as airborne air defense platforms. That said, there were still clean hits by Russia during the saturation attack and, again, energy infrastructure appears to be the top target as we approach winter.

 

[Relic]

Andrew Perpetua is playing catchup with his visually confirmed and geolocated losses for both Russia and Ukraine . He and his team were inundated with close to 1000 videos over a 3 day stretch. Russia continues to push in Donetsk, but also launched a counter attack in Kursk and has been enduring almost unfathomable losses in their attempt to expel Ukraine from Russian territory.

Here is a snapshot of the 2 day losses for Russia and Ukraine on November 12th and November 13th. Appreciate how substantial these are for both sides.

Russian two day losses

Air Defense
1x Strela-10
1x 9K33 OSA

Artillery
1x 2S23 Nona-SVK
2x 2S3 Akatsiya
1x 2A63 MSTA-B
3x BM-21 Grad
1x MT-12 Rapira
2x M-46
10x D-30
2x D-20
1x S-60

Main Battles Tanks
2x T-90
6x T-80
17x T-72
6x T-62

Infantry Fighting Vehicles
1x BMD-4
14x BMP-3
7x BMP-2
15x BMP-1
29x BTR-82

Armored Personnel Carriers
2x Z-STS Akhmat
3x Tigr-M
14x MT-LB
1x BTR-80

Military Trucks
12x Ural
1x Kamaz
7x Other

Civilian Vehicles
10x ATV
118x Civilian

Ukrainan two days losses

Air Defense
Nil

Artillery
1x M109
2x AHS Krab
1x D-20

Main Battle Tanks
2x Leopard 2
1x Challenger 2
1x M1A1 Abrams
9x T-64
2x T-72

Infantry Fighting Vehicles
7x Bradley
2x BMP-2
4x BMP-1
1x BTR-4

Armored Personnel Carriers
1x Stryker
1x VAB
2x BTR-80
1x Senator
2x Kirpi
2x MaxxPro
2x Kozak-7
1x MT-LB

Military Trucks
7x Truck

Civilian Vehicles
1x ATV
19x Civilian

Andrew Perpetua (@andrewperpetua.bsky.social)

Here are losses I could identify for the 12th. 122 💀 7234 👻 in 83 past days #SkullThrone losses.ukrdailyupdate.com

bsky.app

Andrew Perpetua (@andrewperpetua.bsky.social)

Here are losses I could identify for the 13th. 161 💀 7395 👻 in 83 past days #SkullThrone sources: losses.ukrdailyupdate.com

bsky.app

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the strike of the Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet-51" on the Ukrainian light MLRS Sivalka VM-5 in the Kursk region of Russia has been published. The Sivalka VM-5 MLRS is designed to support infantry during offensive operations and is equipped with 12-16 80 mm unguided S-8 aircraft rockets. Initially, the Sivalka VM-5 MLRS was created for special forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine. The firing range of the Sivalka VM-5 MLRS is up to 5 km, it can be installed on any chassis, but is usually placed on pickups.
As a result of the strike by the Lancet drone, the Sivalka VM-5 MLRS was damaged, and personnel were also injured.

 

[Woland]

Biden has finally authorized Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles.

Biden Allows Ukraine to Strike Russia With Long-Range U.S. Missiles

With two months left in office, the president for the first time authorized the Ukrainian military to use the system known as ATACMS to help defend its forces in the Kursk region of Russia.

www.nytimes.com

Summary: it was in response to NK troops entry into the war.

 

[blackjack]

Biden has finally authorized Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles.

Biden Allows Ukraine to Strike Russia With Long-Range U.S. Missiles

With two months left in office, the president for the first time authorized the Ukrainian military to use the system known as ATACMS to help defend its forces in the Kursk region of Russia.

www.nytimes.com

Summary: it was in response to NK troops entry into the war.

not surprised, everyone knew he was going to be as disruptive to Trump as possible, and there are few more effective ways than to escalate escalate escalate. He’ll officially send an invasion force come December, don’t doubt it.

 

[MaciekRS]

After Scholtz stupid telephone call our Prime Minister responds to that
"No-one will stop Putin with phone calls. The attack last night, one of the biggest in this war, has proved that telephone diplomacy cannot replace real support from the whole West for Ukraine. The next weeks will be decisive, not only for the war itself, but also for our future."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1858135219498258876

 

[blackjack]

God damn it WW3 is here.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1858245261610381374

 

[Anastasius]

Trump won't do a thing. And it won't be WW3, at most we'll be getting Vietnam War 2.0.

 

[UkroTurk]

*NEW: France and the UK authorized Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with Storm Shadow missiles following U.S. decision to allow Ukraine strike Russian territory with ATACMS missiles.

Source: Le Figaro

Joe Biden autorise l’Ukraine à frapper la Russie en profondeur avec des armes américaines

Cette décision intervient deux mois avant la passation de pouvoir entre Joe Biden et Donald Trump, soupçonné de vouloir réduire le soutien à l’Ukraine.

www.lefigaro.fr

*North Korea May Send Up to 100,000 Troops to Russia – Bloomberg

*Zelensky:

"Today, many in the media are saying that we have received permission to take the appropriate actions. But strikes are not carried out with words. Such things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves. Definitely," the president noted.

 

[blackjack]

I can't believe it took them like 2 in a half year to finally come to this decision. (which many people online perceive that as desperation)
the next variables are.

1. how much ATACMs, shorm shadow and jassms can get produced?
2. How much will be given in 2 months assuming Trump puts a halt?
3. What air defenses are present in density?
4. Time period of when deliveries will happen? The longer it drags the more effective Russian air defenses would be giving more time for interceptions depending on the gains they make on Ukraine for each day which increased dramatically this month and will do so the next following months.
5. Will the deliveries get immediately targeted in Ukraine since most of Russia's massive strikes were only periodic.

Only countermeasures now is probably increased drone/aircraft surveillance with satellite imagery to target MLRS systems before they strike and maybe a more denser air defense network than before that allowed some of their air defense launchers to get destroyed by a barrages of missiles.