Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Huelague]

You know I think the most important thing from you and among many other users here is having to explain to me what kind of magical powers NATO has that Ukraine doesn't in which the casualty and death rate would be lower if NATO got involved instead of hiding behind the Ukrainians as useful meat shields? I mean there has to be some kind of reason for the idea to be worshipped like a religious belief so there has to be useful sources and statistics that you have to confirm?

In a conventional war, NATO would crush Russia to the bones. But this comparison ist unfair. One state against 27! On the other hand, who cares fairness.

 

[SilverMachine]

I mean the lack of ammunition NATO can supply with equipment is enough to tell you that if Ukraine gets taken over the western countries will be taken over fast as well.

This is dumb. They're running out of ammo to *spare to give to Ukraine*, not running out of ammo they've allocated for themselves.

In any case, if war breaks out they'll make more ammo. That's how this goes, same as Russia's kicked into high gear with industry.

"If Ukraine loses, NATO's eastern countries get overrun" doesn't add up, like at all. For one, Poland's like second-tier most badass country in NATO, they probably couldn't beat Russia *alone* but they'd sure fuck them up more than Ukraine ever has, and they have plenty of men & material to throw into it. You chuck in Sweden & Finland in there with some regional war, Russia's not going to have a good day. They know this, which is why it'll end with Ukraine and maybe Moldova. Simply because, put crudely, we don't *actually* give a fuck about Ukraine or Moldova in the west, much as we posture as if we do. That's not the line, Poland is, Finland is.

How many US/UK soldiers you think have seen conflict? and if they have seen conflict what percentage have been in anything similar to the Ukraine war? So if western equipment hasn't dont jack shit

The first part is half true, but only half. Yes, while American & British (and Dutch and Australian and German and yadda yadda to a lesser degree) have been at war in one form or another for the past 20 years, it hasn't been a peer-against-peer type of war, that's fair. Ukrainians *are* currently more hardened in that regard.

What you're missing is, that doesn't necessarily count for a whole lot, as troops & countries learn quickly (as if to say the US & UK aren't prepared for anything Russia could ever throw at them - they totally are). Troops learn, they adapt, they get better under the circumstances they find themselves in. WWI, the Americans came in green as fuck, not knowing a thing, had to be shown the ropes by the Brits & French & Australians. Thing is, like 8-10 weeks later they were fucking up Germans left right & centre with superior numbers & gear and a lack of fatigue. That applies to war in general, we're seeing it right now: Russia fucking sucked in the opening year of this war - they've turned that around and are now pretty much man-for-man equal with the Ukrainians. This stuff is fluid.

As for "the western equipment hasn't done jackshit" part? Okay, cool, guess we'll just stop sending it. Ukes, you've apparently got this, don't need our toys anymore. Godspeed, you're on your own.

Yeah, you don't believe that. Any vehicle is vulnerable at a point, there was never any guarantee Abrams & Bradleys were going to turn the war in the Ukrainian's favor (I'd even go as far as saying no one in the west actually believed it *would*). They were still a hell of a lot better off having them than not, because their own stuff is...Ukrainian.

 

[Soldier30]

An episode of combat involving a Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA IFV, made in the United States. The video was filmed in the Pokrovsk direction, north of the village of Novogrodovka. The M2A2 Bradley IFV runs over a mine and begins firing circularly from a 25-mm M242 Bushmaster cannon. After which, having engaged reverse, the IFV runs over a mine again, after which part of the crew leaves the combat vehicle.

 

[blackjack]

This is dumb. They're running out of ammo to *spare to give to Ukraine*, not running out of ammo they've allocated for themselves.

In any case, if war breaks out they'll make more ammo. That's how this goes, same as Russia's kicked into high gear with industry.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html

"Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN.

The US military set a goal to produce 100,000 rounds of artillery a month by the end of 2025 — less than half of the Russian monthly output — and even that number is now out of reach with $60 billion in Ukraine funding stalled in Congress, a senior Army official told reporters last week."
Europe will still be walking into a battle with less firepower, and I haven't started on missile production either.

"If Ukraine loses, NATO's eastern countries get overrun" doesn't add up, like at all. For one, Poland's like second-tier most badass country in NATO, they probably couldn't beat Russia *alone* but they'd sure fuck them up more than Ukraine ever has, and they have plenty of men & material to throw into it. You chuck in Sweden & Finland in there with some regional war, Russia's not going to have a good day. They know this, which is why it'll end with Ukraine and maybe Moldova. Simply because, put crudely, we don't *actually* give a fuck about Ukraine or Moldova in the west, much as we posture as if we do. That's not the line, Poland is, Finland is.

Poland’s future armed forces take shape

In recent years, Poland has launched the largest modernisation programme for its armed forces in history.

euro-sd.com

Poland is like at 200k active duty troops, Russia's increase will be to 1.5 million troops. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/military-and-security-service-personnel-strengths/ atleast the EU would be at 1.34 million troops. And no magic has been displayed for the Ukrainians that allowed them any breakthroughs now. Poland's Abrams tanks would burn the same as ukrainian ones.

What you're missing is, that doesn't necessarily count for a whole lot, as troops & countries learn quickly (as if to say the US & UK aren't prepared for anything Russia could ever throw at them - they totally are). Troops learn, they adapt, they get better under the circumstances they find themselves in. WWI, the Americans came in green as fuck, not knowing a thing, had to be shown the ropes by the Brits & French & Australians. Thing is, like 8-10 weeks later they were fucking up Germans left right & centre with superior numbers & gear and a lack of fatigue. That applies to war in general, we're seeing it right now: Russia fucking sucked in the opening year of this war - they've turned that around and are now pretty much man-for-man equal with the Ukrainians. This stuff is fluid.

As for "the western equipment hasn't done jackshit" part? Okay, cool, guess we'll just stop sending it. Ukes, you've apparently got this, don't need our toys anymore. Godspeed, you're on your own.

Yeah, you don't believe that. Any vehicle is vulnerable at a point, there was never any guarantee Abrams & Bradleys were going to turn the war in the Ukrainian's favor (I'd even go as far as saying no one in the west actually believed it *would*). They were still a hell of a lot better off having them than not, because their own stuff is...Ukrainian.

a good cost of lives has to begin 1st, before the learning process begins on adapting to the battlefield. And the Ukrainians with NATO teaching and weaponry are currently not adapting to what russia is doing to them right now like it hasnt been half a month this November where they made more gains than the full month of october.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet-51" striking a Ukrainian MLRS M142 HIMARS, made in the USA. The video was filmed near the settlement of Novosoloshino in the Zaporizhia region. The column, accompanied by two vehicles, was moving in an unknown direction, several drones were tracking the column. Despite the fact that the drone "Lancet" was aimed at the head of the HIMARS MLRS, the missiles did not detonate, since the MLRS was empty. The original video is cut off, the extent of the damage is unclear, in any case, the MLRS needs to be sent for repairs.

 

[Huelague]

If Russia will be attacked by NATO, they will use Nukes. That’s why they are “good” for. No doubt.

@MaciekRS ? You have an other opinion?

 

[Relic]

Germany will deliver to Ukraine 4000 previously classified drones dubbed "mini-taurus".

The Drone is created by German manufacturer Helsing and uses AI and is resistant to jamming. It operates very similar to Russia's Lancet drone, however, it's manufacturer claims that it outranges the Lancet considerably, with a range up to 100 km. Using AI, the drone will track it's own target after it is initially selected, even if connection with the operator has been lost.

Helsing has been working on these drones for some time and they will begin delieveres next month (December, 2024). The drones will be delivered in monthly batches numbered in the hundreds, with additional contracting beyond the first 4000 available.

Germany to provide Ukraine with 4,000 AI-powered 'Mini-Taurus' drones, Bild reports

The German government is reportedly funding a contract concluded in September between tech defense firm Helsing and Ukraine for the supply of attack 4,000 drones.

www.yahoo.com

Germany to send thousands of "Mini-Taurus" drones to Ukraine capable of destroying Russian tanks - Euromaidan Press

Germany says it will deliver AI-powered drones to Ukraine that have a range four times greater than the kamikaze drones previously used in Ukraine.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

@MaciekRS ? You have an other opinion?

I'm not @MaciekRS but I'd say that Russia would only use nukes if their Country is about to fall, not earlier.

 

[Huelague]

I'm not @MaciekRS but I'd say that Russia would only use nukes if their Country is about to fall, not earlier.

Exactly. Its a secondary weapon. As I mention before, NATO would defeat Russia in a conventional war, so Russia would has no other choice than using Nukes.

 

[Huelague]

Germany will deliver to Ukraine 4000 previously classified drones dubbed "mini-taurus".

The Drone is created by German manufacturer Helsing and uses AI and is resistant to jamming. It operates very similar to Russia's Lancet drone, however, it's manufacturer claims that it outranges the Lancet considerably, with a range up to 100 km. Using AI, the drone will track it's own target after it is initially selected, even if connection with the operator has been lost.

Helsing has been working on these drones for some time and they will begin delieveres next month (December, 2024). The drones will be delivered in monthly batches numbered in the hundreds, with additional contracting beyond the first 4000 available.

Germany to provide Ukraine with 4,000 AI-powered 'Mini-Taurus' drones, Bild reports

The German government is reportedly funding a contract concluded in September between tech defense firm Helsing and Ukraine for the supply of attack 4,000 drones.

www.yahoo.com

Germany to send thousands of "Mini-Taurus" drones to Ukraine capable of destroying Russian tanks - Euromaidan Press

Germany says it will deliver AI-powered drones to Ukraine that have a range four times greater than the kamikaze drones previously used in Ukraine.

euromaidanpress.com

The last order from real german government. USA.
What a joke nation.

 

[GoatsMilk]

As time goes on it looks to me more and more that the westerners have been fooling the Russians. They are making it seem like they are not interested, arming Ukraine in a way in which she cannot win. She creates illusions for the Russians that she can win this war, hence the Russians stay committed in the meat grinder. This is how they are able to make this war drag out for years. If the americans/europeans supported ukraine with what she really needed and quickly, probably early on the Russians would have realised it was futile to continue the invasion and pull out. However, this way they stay balls deep in Ukraine and whittle away their own economic and military strength.

Keep the Russians believing the war will end soon, that victory is coming soon, that way you can keep them fighting for years to come. A bit like the gambler whose pissed his money away, he ends pissing more away out of desperation that he needs to win back what he's already lost. The more he loses, the more committed he becomes to trying to win.

 

[Relic]

As time goes on it looks to me more and more that the westerners have been fooling the Russians. They are making it seem like they are not interested, arming Ukraine in a way in which she cannot win. She creates illusions for the Russians that she can win this war, hence the Russians stay committed in the meat grinder. This is how they are able to make this war drag out for years. If the americans/europeans supported ukraine with what she really needed and quickly, probably early on the Russians would have realised it was futile to continue the invasion and pull out. However, this way they stay balls deep in Ukraine and whittle away their own economic and military strength.

Keep the Russians believing the war will end soon, that victory is coming soon, that way you can keep them fighting for years to come. A bit like the gambler whose pissed his money away, he ends pissing more away out of desperation that he needs to win back what he's already lost. The more he loses, the more committed he becomes to trying to win.

Remember, the West has three simultaneous goals.

1. Ensure that Ukraine doesn't become Belarus, a puppet state of Russia.

2. Take the strategic opportunity to destroy Russia's Soviet stockpile of weapons that they will never be able to afford to replace.

3. Use the threat of Russia's offensive to expand NATO and convince their respective populous' that it's worth it to invest hundreds of billions of dollars to revamp their own respective militaries to replace the old equipment they're sending Ukraine.

Collectively, those factors are balanced to ensure that Russia leaves the war weaker and the West, much stronger.

 

[Tabmachine]

https://thegrayzone.com/2024/11/16/uk-plot-keep-ukraine-fighting/

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1624474926064230402

 

[Iskander]

1000th day of war.
The 3-day war of the Second Army of the World against the 22nd Army of the World has reached its thousandth day. Ukrainians are bravely defending their country.
Glory to Ukraine!

 

[SilverMachine]

That glory'll be in its last months, unfortunately. Or at least the "glory" will apply to about 70% of what the country was two years ago.

 

[UkroTurk]

❗️Putin approved the updated nuclear doctrine.

❗️The main provisions of the nuclear doctrine:

Aggression against the Russian Federation and its allies by a non-nuclear country with the support of a nuclear state will be considered a joint attack;

The readiness and determination of the Russian Federation to use nuclear weapons will ensure nuclear deterrence;

The Russian Federation may use nuclear weapons in the event of a critical threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of itself and Belarus;

The updated nuclear doctrine defines the enemy against whom nuclear deterrence is being carried out;

Among the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons is the launch of ballistic missiles against the Russian Federation;

Provision of territory and resources for aggression against the Russian Federation is the basis for nuclear deterrence of such a state.

ТАСС

❗️Главное из положений ядерной доктрины: ▪️Агрессия против РФ и ее союзников со стороны неядерной страны при поддержке ядерного государства будет рассмотрена как совместное нападение; ▪️Готовность и решимость РФ применить ядерное оружие будет обеспечивать ядерное сдерживание; ▪️РФ может...

t.me

Macron says US made ‘good decision’ to lift limits on Ukraine missile use

Macron says US made ‘good decision’ to lift limits on Ukraine missile use

France says it is Moscow, not Washington, that is upping the ante.

www.politico.eu

Ukraine stroke Russian territory with ATACMS for the first time, - media


12:05, 19.11.24


Ukrainian Armed Forces stroke Russia with ATACMS missile for the first time
According to Ukrainian media sources, the object was successfully hit. Detonation continues to this day.


The Target "Russian weapons arsenal was located near the city of Karachev, " is about 130 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Ракеты ATACMS впервые атаковали Россию - СМИ

Российский арсенал оружия находился около города Карачев - на расстоянии около 130 километров от границы Украины.

korrespondent.net

Ukraine aims to knock out Kerch bridge

Ukraine aims to knock out Kerch bridge after U.S. approves use of ATACMS to strike inside Russia

Ukraine will aim to blitz dozens of key potential targets inside Russian territory using Western long-range missiles to turn the war around. This includes strategic military bases, airfields and so…

www.globaldefensecorp.com

 

[Iskander]

That glory'll be in its last months, unfortunately. Or at least the "glory" will apply to about 70% of what the country was two years ago.

I don't see any decisive superiority of the Russians on the battlefield. They are, by and large, fighting in the same place they entered at full speed in the first days of the war. The Russians have not been able to take complete control of even the Donetsk region in a thousand days (!) The geopolitical situation and the scale of support for the parties may still change. Look, only 2 countries support Russia with weapons. And Ukraine - 52.

 

[Iskander]

❗️Putin approved the updated nuclear doctrine.
Among the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons is the launch of ballistic missiles against the Russian Federation;

Ukraine stroke Russian territory with ATACMS for the first time, - media


12:05, 19.11.24

But ATAKMS is a ballistic missile

 

[blackjack]

Exactly. Its a secondary weapon. As I mention before, NATO would defeat Russia in a conventional war, so Russia would has no other choice than using Nukes.

you're probably a little more optimistic than the Ukrainian President if you think Europe with a smaller equipment and ammunition production with lesser active-duty troops, fresh to no experience in this conflict can somehow beat a bigger force with more firepower and equipment. That is assuming the Chinese don't jump right in since like Russia they don't want NATO closer to their borders to further thwart their Taiwan dream.

I think they are now already 3 years behind Taiwan in electronics production and their mass production on that keeps increasing (NATO countries have failed with their sanctions as usual). At this point Ukraine is going to have to make concessions to the conflict since NATO has awareness how far a war can escalate having no need for the losses. I think most users here fail to realize Ukraine to world leaders doesn't have that much importance around the world.

As time goes on it looks to me more and more that the westerners have been fooling the Russians. They are making it seem like they are not interested, arming Ukraine in a way in which she cannot win. She creates illusions for the Russians that she can win this war, hence the Russians stay committed in the meat grinder. This is how they are able to make this war drag out for years. If the americans/europeans supported ukraine with what she really needed and quickly, probably early on the Russians would have realised it was futile to continue the invasion and pull out. However, this way they stay balls deep in Ukraine and whittle away their own economic and military strength.

Keep the Russians believing the war will end soon, that victory is coming soon, that way you can keep them fighting for years to come. A bit like the gambler whose pissed his money away, he ends pissing more away out of desperation that he needs to win back what he's already lost. The more he loses, the more committed he becomes to trying to win.

Come on man you have celebrated like 100 times for each Wunder waffle weapon the Ukrainians got in terms of turning the war around. Some are already backing off after Putin decided to sign a decree because they don't love Ukraine enough like you guys do.

You should already know better to not get your hopes up.

The 3-day war of the Second Army of the World against the 22nd Army of the World has reached its thousandth day.

The Russians have never announced this, some high-ranking NATO officials which you guys believe will beat the Russians did.

1. Ensure that Ukraine doesn't become Belarus, a puppet state of Russia.

Well, I think BMs are like the last wonder weapon that will fail like the last wonder weapons and based on production they might receive a limited amount. I don't think we are going to see another major counteroffensive from Ukraine in 2025. I think Europe is also going to pull out the financial support after Trump does.

2. Take the strategic opportunity to destroy Russia's Soviet stockpile of weapons that they will never be able to afford to replace.

the soviet stockpile is getting replaced as we speak.

I dont even think Europe started any mass production assuming they can afford production with whatever fuel their country receives to ease down with the energy prices.

3. Use the threat of Russia's offensive to expand NATO and convince their respective populous' that it's worth it to invest hundreds of billions of dollars to revamp their own respective militaries to replace the old equipment they're sending Ukraine

Has this been done yet? I think getting their economy back to shape is their 1st requirement Mr. John Bolton. Do they have the fuel and energy to start any kind of production 1st? I am assuming the US can help but we will have to wait for 2 months. I think we all know the outcome of what will happen after that 2-month time period which will more than likely not benefit Ukraine.

 

[SilverMachine]

I don't see any decisive superiority of the Russians on the battlefield. They are, by and large, fighting in the same place they entered at full speed in the first days of the war. The Russians have not been able to take complete control of even the Donetsk region in a thousand days (!) The geopolitical situation and the scale of support for the parties may still change. Look, only 2 countries support Russia with weapons. And Ukraine - 52.

They've only escalated the speed & consistency (ie. holding the gains) of territory they've taken in the past 6 months or so, and Ukrainian manpower's basically depleted, something the non-Zelensky higher-ups in Ukraine freely admit.

You're high.

They're not getting Kiev, no. But Ukraine's not ever taking back the land that's been taken from them, at this point that's fantasy. Negotiations happen after January, bet the farm on it.

Also you're conveniently leaving out that the top 1, maybe top couple/handful of those 52 countries currently sending arms...pretty likely won't continue to, for a myriad of reasons. Top of those being they're well aware Zelensky's "victory, huzzah!" talk isn't the lay of the land in reality - the longer he keeps going on with it, the more delusional he looks, and the west will tire of him. There comes a point where the outcome is inevitable, the west isn't willing to take it to all-out-total-war with Russia themselves, and a point where Zelensky's the impediment to ending it rather than Putin is. We're not there yet, but if 6 months from now Putin's all "I can accept western money rebuilding Ukraine, but I'm keeping the Donbas and Crimea", the west grudgingly sees that as the best possible outcome Ukraine's going to get, and Zelensky's still "fuck you, Vlad!", the military help WILL. DRY. UP. And fast.