TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[guest12]

Guys I want to ask about Serbia.

As Russia is weakening. Serbia now finds itself deep shit as they know their traditional protector wont able to protect them as much.

I know Serbia and China are close but China is too far for Serbia to have any kind of military alliance.

Does Turkiye have any chance to fill the void for Serbia? What should Turkiye power plays be in the Balkans?

Serbia will no doubt try to find as much friends as possible while most of its neighbours join the EU and leaving them to be alone.

They ordered Rafaela jets few months ago so theirs your answer.

 

[Dennixtoue]

What now for Syria’s £4.5bn illegal drug empire​

Inside the abandoned homes of Assad's ruthless enforcers​

2 days ago


Alice Cuddy and Ghaith Solh
BBC News, Damascus
BBC
Jamil Hassan, one of the most feared men in Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime, wanted for the torture and killing of civilians, was shaking as he walked down the stairs of his apartment block.
Outside, the 72-year-old climbed into a car in a small convoy with his family and a handful of security guards, just a few suitcases between them.
His neighbour and her teenage son watched.
"I knew the moment I saw them flee that Assad had fallen," she says.
When we entered Hassan's apartment a few days later, signs of the family's hasty departure were everywhere.
In the fridge was a half-eaten carrot cake with a knife still on the plate. The beds were strewn with clothes and empty shoeboxes. Flowers wilted in a vase in the dining room, and cups and plates had been left to dry by the sink.
A framed photo of a smiling Hassan and Assad hung on the wall of the study, with text reading: "Our skies are for us and forbidden to others".


Signs of the family's hasty departure were everywhere

Hassan, referred to as "the butcher" by many civilians on his street, was one of Assad's most menacing enforcers. He led the Air Force Intelligence and oversaw a network of detention facilities including the notorious Mezzeh Prison, where detainees were routinely tortured.
He is one of many senior regime figures wanted or sanctioned around the world who have abandoned their homes in affluent areas of Damascus and vanished.
Finding these men who ruled Syria with an iron fist will be difficult. Some fear they will strike political deals abroad and evade justice.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the campaign to topple the regime, has vowed to search for them inside Syria. Rebels aligned with the group now occupy Hassan's apartment and a handwritten note on the front door warns people not to enter.
When we asked them where Hassan might have gone, one grinned and replied: "I don't know - to Hell."

'His guards threatened to kill my dog'​

Many apartment shutters on Hassan's quiet street in central Damascus are now closed. Knocks on doors go unanswered.
Those who will speak tell us about their fear at living on a street with a wanted war criminal. "We were so afraid to talk," says the woman who watched him flee. "It was terrifying to live next to them."
Hassan is wanted in the US for "engaging in conspiracy to commit cruel and inhuman treatment of civilian detainees, including US citizens". He was convicted in absentia earlier this year in France for his role in imprisoning, disappearing and torturing two Syrian-French nationals. Germany wants him too. An Interpol Red Notice shows a photograph of Hassan alongside a note that he is wanted for "conspiracy to commit war crimes".
He was placed under travel bans and had his assets frozen over the repression of civilian protesters. In April 2011 the US says Air Force Intelligence personnel fired tear gas and live ammunition at protesting crowds in Damascus and other cities, killing at least 43.
People on the street describe a formidable figure who was unapproachable and always surrounded by guards.
A makeshift security post outside Hassan's apartment building was constantly staffed by military personnel. The night before the regime collapsed, the men simply took off their uniforms and discarded their weapons, according to another neighbour.
"It was the first time I'd seen this post with no lights, no sounds, no noise," says 27-year-old Amr al-Bakri, a filmmaker who lives with his family in the building next door.
He said locals "knew what he did to the Syrians - outside of Damascus and in Damascus - so we know it but we can't say anything, just 'good morning sir'. He'd say nothing back."
Amr says his family had to give away their pet dog after Hassan's guards threatened to kill it if it didn't stop barking. When Amr's family asked for the guard post to be moved from outside their home, they were told they should move house instead, he says.



Hassan's home, pictured above, was routinely guarded by military personnel, civilians on the street say

A guard post outside of Hassan's building has been abandoned


The guards would run regular inspections on the street and check the bags of visitors.
"Sometimes if I had a plumber or handyman to come and fix something one of the guards would come and check if there was really something that needed to be fixed," says the woman living in Hassan's building.
Neighbours also say Hassan had a "golden line" for electricity that meant his family's lights were always on, while other homes in the neighbourhood were in darkness.
The electrician called to fix any problems at the apartment says he knew Hassan over many years "but only from a distance". "[Hassan] was very strict - a military personality," the man says. "He was a butcher… He had no mercy."
The man told BBC News he had been in prison - not at Mezzeh but elsewhere - and was tortured there.
A local shopkeeper, Mohammed Naoura, says he didn't like Hassan but that you had to appear to support him.
"We are happy now," he adds. "Nobody believed this would ever happen."

Guns on sofas and underground swimming pools​

Hussam Luka, head of the General Security Directorate (GSD), was less well-known among residents but had an apartment underneath Hassan.
His "ruthless, smooth-talking nature" reportedly earned him the nickname "the spider" - and he's under sanctions in the EU, US and UK.
A UK sanctions list says he was "responsible for the torture of opponents in custody", while the US Treasury Department says he "reportedly committed a number of massacres" while working in Homs.
The White House has said he is one of a small group of officials who might have information about missing American journalist Austin Tice.
At his home on Monday, rebels were dismantling furniture to be put into storage. They said they arrived after looters had already taken many of the most expensive items.

Utensils and home appliances are placed on the floor, piled together

Hussam Luka (left) and Assad
A photo of Luka and Assad remained, printed in different sizes and styles, alongside documents from security and intelligence events, and ceremonial medals and certificates from the foreign spy service in Russia - where the deposed Syrian leader Assad has fled.
"This award is to the coordinator of the mukhabarat [intelligence service] organ in the southern provinces of the Syrian Arab Republic," one certificate naming Luka says. "You showed the utmost professionalism and put in huge effort to fulfil the duties entrusted to you for the good of the Syrian people."
As rebels clear the apartment, a neighbour wanders in to see what's happening.
When asked what she knows about the regime official, she replies: "We keep to ourselves, they keep to themselves. No one in this building interacts with each other." She walks away.

What lies ahead for Assad and his family?​

Assad says he didn't intend to leave Syria, statement claims​

Watch: BBC speaks to Syrian rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa​

In other affluent areas more homes have been abandoned. Fridges are fully stocked, wardrobes full and in some cases travel documents left behind.
The rebels who have taken over the homes are using them as bases, and say they are also preventing further looting.
At one lavish apartment, men say they are sleeping on blankets on marble floors beneath giant chandeliers and cooking on a camp stove in its modern kitchen. Guns are propped against plush sofas and arm chairs.
"We don't need any of this," a rebel says, gesticulating around the room.
At another, a child peeks through the curtain of a sprawling ground-floor apartment with an outdoor swimming pool. A large family say they are occupying the space.
Perhaps the grandest home in the area is the modern labyrinthine underground dwelling of one of the country's best-known businessmen - Khodr Taher Bin Ali, better known as Abu Ali Khodr.
Bin Ali has been sanctioned by the US, UK and EU for his role in supporting and benefiting from the Syrian regime.
His home has a lift, a full-size gym, an indoor swimming pool, hot tub and sauna, and an industrial kitchen.

Two golden safes designed to hold watches in the master bedroom

A family photo of Khodr Taher Bin Ali that was left in his house
In the master bedroom, there are two golden safes, with space for dozens of watches - in a drawer there is a forgotten warranty card for luxury brand Audemars Piguet. A gun case and jewellery boxes in the wardrobe are empty.
The children's ensuite bedrooms still have toys and a Louis Vuitton handbag on the floor and homework and school reports are in the cupboards. A Quran rests on a work top with the words "A gift from the president Bashar al-Assad" inscribed on the side.
Around the corner from Bin Ali is the home of Ali Mamlouk, one of Assad's closest associates and among the most senior and notorious members of the regime. He was reportedly given the nickname "black box" because of his control over sensitive information.
He was sentenced alongside Hassan by French judges this year for war crimes, and is also wanted in Lebanon for two explosions in 2012 in the city of Tripoli that killed and wounded dozens.
Like Luka, the White House believes Mamlouk is one of few men who could have information about Tice.
His home is padlocked shut, and rebels are more reluctant to grant entry there.
In a guard booth outside, there are notes on visitors to the property before Assad's fall - people delivering chocolates, water and vegetables, and coming to fix the electricity.
"No one could see, no one could walk, no one could pass by this area. It's actually the first time I'm seeing this place from up close," says 17-year-old Mo Rasmi Taftaf, whose family own a house nearby.
"Whenever he came in or out, guards would cut the roads off," one neighbour says.

Rebels are now occupying the abandoned apartments

A gun placed on a chair at another of the apartments the BBC saw inside


Shouting down from a second-floor balcony, another gestures towards Mamlouk's large home when asked about the wanted regime figure.
"It felt like there was a strange atmosphere" on the street the night before news broke that Assad had fled, he says, without elaborating.
"His security was here at the time but I saw them leave on Sunday morning - a lot of cars. Ali Mamlouk wasn't here," he adds, before returning inside.
Another man, who declines to give his name, says he doesn't want to talk about the regime men.
"I just want to live in peace. I don't want to open this book or explore all of these crimes - there would be a lot of blood."

Hunting the Assad men​

Many, though, do want justice.
The leader of HTS has vowed to pursue the senior regime figures in Syria and asked other countries to hand over those who fled. Those wanted elsewhere have limited places to run.
Finding the men will be a challenge.
"While there is no confirmed information on the current whereabouts of senior regime figures like Jamil Hassan, Ali Mamlouk, and others, there are concerns that such individuals could benefit from political deals that enable them to evade justice," the Syrian Center for Media and Freedom of Expression (SCM) tells the BBC.
"Some are likely to have sought refuge in allied countries, complicating future extradition efforts, while others may still be in Syria, living discreetly."
On Hassan's street, neighbours speculate about where the vanished war criminal has gone.
His family left few clues in the apartment. But in the office is a certificate for Hassan's daughter signed by Hassan Nasrallah, the late leader of Lebanon-based Shia militant group Hezbollah, thanking her for her "help and support for this honourable resistance".
Several neighbours suggest he may be hiding in Lebanon or has transited through there, while the local shopkeeper says he thinks Hassan headed for the coast, perhaps to Latakia in the north - the heartland of the minority Alawite sect to which Assad and many of his closest allies belong.
Meanwhile, Lebanese newspaper Nida al-Watan reports that Mamlouk was smuggled across the border and into the Lebanese capital Beirut by Hezbollah - a long-time ally of Syria's Ba'ath government.
Hezbollah has not confirmed offering assistance to any regime figures, and the Lebanese government has said no Syrian officials targeted by international warrants were authorised to enter through legal crossings. Lebanese security services say Mamlouk is not in the country.
Syrian-British barrister Ibrahim Olabi says regime officials may have acquired new identities and passports, as they were powerful people backed by state institutions.
When it comes to getting justice, he adds, a lack of evidence is not the problem. It is more about finding them and getting them to a place where they can be held accountable.
The SCM says doing this will "require considerable resources, sustained political will, and international collaboration".
Failing to do so will send a "dangerous message that crimes, including war crimes and crimes against humanity, can go unpunished", it adds.
Ibrahim Olabi says he is hopeful that justice will be served.
"It will absolutely be a hunt," he says, but "the world now is a small place through social media, private investigators, political leverages".
Hassan's neighbours who were willing to talk say they hope he will one day be returned to Syria, far away from their street, to be punished.

Jeremy Bowen: Syria's new ruler is politically astute - but can he keep his promises?​

Syria mass graves: Daunting task of searching for and naming the dead​

'I felt like a breathing corpse': Stories from people freed from Syria torture prison​

Bashar al-Assad
Syria

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Related

What now for Syria’s £4.5bn illegal drug empire​

 

[Scott Summers]

The Intellectual Property Office of the EU just rejected the name ‘TurkAegean’ for the European markets after complains from Greece.

EUIPO Throws Out Turkaegean Trademark - tovima.com

The trademark had been filed by the Türkiye Tourism Promotion and Development Agency (TGA) in 2021 and immediately generated heated opposition by Athens

www.tovima.com

Congratulations to our pro-Western Turkish keyboard warriors here on this platform. The Westerners dont like the word ‘Turk’, for centuries now.

You are still a dumb lazy retarded Ottoman in their eyes, no matter how much earrings or skinnyjeans you wear.

 

[Tornadoss]

The Intellectual Property Office of the EU just rejected the name ‘TurkAegean’ for the European markets after complains from Greece.

EUIPO Throws Out Turkaegean Trademark - tovima.com

The trademark had been filed by the Türkiye Tourism Promotion and Development Agency (TGA) in 2021 and immediately generated heated opposition by Athens

www.tovima.com

Congratulations to our pro-Western Turkish keyboard warriors here on this platform. The Westerners dont like the word ‘Turk’, for centuries now.

You are still a dumb lazy retarded Ottoman in their eyes, no matter how much earrings or skinnyjeans you wear.

It must be hard to live Netherlands, and it will be even harder coming years, as right wing is on rise. It's better to return back to Turkey.

 

[Asena_great]

It must be hard to live Netherlands, and it will be even harder coming years, as right wing is on rise. It's better to return back to Turkey.

no you should stay returning wont benefit turkey however you should band together to create educated elite (without brainwashing) to fight for our rights if you leave it will only get worst

 

[Scott Summers]

Greek Lobby in Congress pressuring Trump to end the ‘Cyprus-problem’.

Trump urged to make Cyprus problem top priority

A bipartisan resolution condemning Turkey’s illegal occupation of Cyprus has been submitted to the U.S. House of Representatives by Representatives Nicole Maliotakis, Gus Bilirakis, Chris Pappas and Dina Titus, encouraging the elected US President Donald Trump to make the resolution of the...

cyprus-mail.com

 

[IC3M@N FX]

Greek Lobby in Congress pressuring Trump to end the ‘Cyprus-problem’.

Trump urged to make Cyprus problem top priority

A bipartisan resolution condemning Turkey’s illegal occupation of Cyprus has been submitted to the U.S. House of Representatives by Representatives Nicole Maliotakis, Gus Bilirakis, Chris Pappas and Dina Titus, encouraging the elected US President Donald Trump to make the resolution of the...

cyprus-mail.com

I doubt that they will be able to enforce this, it would end up in a war and Turkey would finally turn away from the West.
But let's assume that the EU & USA are or would be behind the Greek/Cypriot plan both politically and militarily.
Turkey would ask China/Russia (with a lot of concessions) for a permanent presence in the Mediterranean/Black Sea.
If Chinese aircraft carriers come with fighter planes and nuclear weapons, you would have a stalemate where ultimately all parties would lose especially Turkey, Greece and the EU.
The Americans won't go to war against a nuclear country, even if they could/would defeat China/Russia/North Korea together with the EU, the price of which would be nuclear fallout worldwide.
Nobody would risk that for an insignificant country called Greece/Cyprus just because their cunt is itching to be fucked again.

 

[Scott Summers]

We should have annexed 100% of the island back then. Our weakest point is that we put ourselves in reserve under pressure.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

We should have annexed 100% of the island back then. Our weakest point is that we put ourselves in reserve under pressure.

What pressure? International politics works the way those who bark the loudest are like Greece/Cyprus and France. They are under a lot of pressure, if it wasn't for that they would stay cool all the time, they don't because they have no real leverage so they are looking for some.
France has lost a lot of influence in North and Central Africa + Middle East.
Greece and Cyprus are afraid because they are facing a Turkey that can not only defend itself politically and militarily, but can also exert pressure politically, militarily and asymmetrically on other EU countries.
For example, there is no unified EU policy against Turkey, the political and economic interests are much greater than the barking of Greece/Cyprus & France, and the demand for tougher measures against Turkey.
Turkey has close economic relations with many EU countries including major countries such as Spain, Italy and Germany, the latter with an annual bilateral trade volume of 55-60 billion US dollars and rising.
In the overall trade relationship between EU <-> Turkey, Turkey ranks 5th after USA, China, UK and Switzerland.
So we are talking about a certain market power and money and that is good money that the countries do not want to lose.

Chat GPT Paid Version

The top trading partners of the European Union (EU) in 2023, based on total trade volume (exports plus imports), are:

1. United States: Accounts for 17% of the EU's total trade volume.

2. China: Represents 15% of the EU's trade.

3. United Kingdom: Accounts for 10% of the EU's trade volume.

4. Switzerland: Represents 6% of the EU's trade.

5. Turkey: Accounts for 4% of the EU's total trade.

These figures highlight the key countries in trade relations with the EU. For the most current data, it is recommended to check updated reports from relevant statistical agencies.

Greece/Cyprus with France cannot compensate for this or offer EU Countries alternatives that trade with Turkey.

Turkey has important tools, the first weapon is the bilateral trade which is very important for the EU but also for Turkey.

The second weapon is the migration policy, sometimes I believe that Turkey has politically consciously taken in Syrians to use this weapon against the EU. The effects would be catastrophic, only right-wing populist governments would win, migration policy is the first priority for all EU countries.
The EU countries would be divided and the disintegration of the EU would even be accelerated.

The third weapon is Turkey's soft and hard power in the Middle East, EU, Africa and partly the Far East with armaments, media and economic aid.

The fourth weapon is that Turkey will be or wants to be an energy and trade hub in the future.
As a transit country, it would even have additional screws where it could exert pressure.

 

[AlperTunga]

I doubt that they will be able to enforce this, it would end up in a war and Turkey would finally turn away from the West.
But let's assume that the EU & USA are or would be behind the Greek/Cypriot plan both politically and militarily.
Turkey would ask China/Russia (with a lot of concessions) for a permanent presence in the Mediterranean/Black Sea.
If Chinese aircraft carriers come with fighter planes and nuclear weapons, you would have a stalemate where ultimately all parties would lose especially Turkey, Greece and the EU.
The Americans won't go to war against a nuclear country, even if they could/would defeat China/Russia/North Korea together with the EU, the price of which would be nuclear fallout worldwide.
Nobody would risk that for an insignificant country called Greece/Cyprus just because their cunt is itching to be fucked again.

If we have 200 modernized F16 and 300 hundred Kaan supported with co-operable Anka4 and twin motor Kizilelma even US and Europe together wont think of attacking us for such a secondary issue like Cyprus. A diplomatic agreement will be reached. US will only attack us if we strike Israel. We should strengthen our army such that we dont need any help from China. Russia I am not even mentioning.

 

[AlperTunga]

We also need more submarines than planned. Given the speed of Istif building we should add another batch of four. Alternatively we should arm more heavily the OPVs with upgraded radars.

 

[TR_123456]

If we have 200 modernized F16 and 300 hundred Kaan supported with co-operable Anka4 and twin motor Kizilelma even US and Europe together wont think of attacking us for such a secondary issue like Cyprus. A diplomatic agreement will be reached. US will only attack us if we strike Israel. We should strengthen our army such that we dont need any help from China. Russia I am not even mentioning.

If you have 300 KAAN's why would you need 200 F-16's?
Btw,by the time we have 300 KAAN's the F-16's will be obsolete.

Try being realistic,

 

[AlperTunga]

I should have written "If we had...". But once we begin production of Kaan in 2030s we should not produce 24 of them in a year as Temel Kotil said. Once we know how to produce them, why is it that difficult to double the production rate? With that rate we will produce 240 of them in 5 years. We have to understand that we are now in a new global regime in which countries tend to use more hard power than diplomacy, so we have to invest more. We have to finish 6 MILDENs, 10 STM mini submarines by 2035, as well as 200 KAANs by that time. Steal dome should be operational with all its elements including effective ballistic missile interception capability. If we are pressured soon by Greece backed by US/France we should not escalate too much but also show restrained opposition as well as try to gain time by negotiations etc. At the background we should improve our defences and striking capability like there is no tomorrow.

"Try being realistic": All of what I state above is doable and realistic, we just need to set priorities, collect taxes more efficiently, and crush corruption in the country (including seizure of all Audi A8s and similar luxury cars from gov officials). Also no canal Istanbul project.

 

[BalkanTurk90]

If you have 300 KAAN's why would you need 200 F-16's?
Btw,by the time we have 300 KAAN's the F-16's will be obsolete.

Try being realistic,

We should have always some -100 airplanes for cheap duties , If we need to bomb terrorist base at iraq / syria of course we will use cheaper f16 fighter and not 5gen to bomb those terrorist rats

 

[TR_123456]

We should have always some -100 airplanes for cheap duties , If we need to bomb terrorist base at iraq / syria of course we will use cheaper f16 fighter and not 5gen to bomb those terrorist rats

And what do we do with the hunderds of UCAV's?

 

[BalkanTurk90]

And what do we do with the hunderds of UCAV's?

Terrorists are not stupid , they mostly nowdays in syria and iraq are using tunnels and bunkers where 10-100kg bombs are useless and there needs 1+ ton bombs that only fighter aircraft can carry for now . Not to mention Akinci that can carry it but with resctricted speed ,range etc etc

 

[Yasar_TR]

Terrorists are not stupid , they mostly nowdays in syria and iraq are using tunnels and bunkers where 10-100kg bombs are useless and there needs 1+ ton bombs that only fighter aircraft can carry for now . Not to mention Akinci that can carry it but with resctricted speed ,range etc etc

Just check those 1000kg NEB bunker buster bombs and the SOM-J that can penetrate concrete bunkers Akinci can carry.

Akinci can easily carry 3 x 500kg bunker buster bombs under its belly.
Below with a NEB that weighs total of 1360kg , when powered by 2 x 750HP PT6 engines.

There was a 850HP PT6 engine used in Akinci C variant. That will allow the drone to perform even better.

 

[Mis_TR_Like]

View attachment 73115
Just check those 1000kg NEB bunker buster bombs and the SOM-J that can penetrate concrete bunkers Akinci can carry.
View attachment 73116 Akinci can easily carry 3 x 500kg bunker buster bombs under its belly.
Below with a NEB that weighs total of 1360kg , when powered by 2 x 750HP PT6 engines.
View attachment 73117

There was a 850HP PT6 engine used in Akinci C variant. That will allow the drone to perform even better.

Biggest issue right now is that the Iranians have given these bastards 358 missiles, we've lost a number of drones to these. Eventually we're going to need to cut the flow, but I'm afraid we would need to destroy the factories themselves to achieve that.

 

[Scott Summers]

I hate this jew. Every week he writes a column about us.

How Turkey’s "Neo-Ottomanism" and Pakistan’s "Neo-Mughalism" Are Clear and Present Danger

It is hard to believe it has just been 20 years since “neo-Ottomanism” hit the stage in Turkey. At that time, a Western official described Turkey as a bridge between East and West and as...

www.aei.org

 

[dBSPL]

I hate this jew. Every week he writes a column about us.

How Turkey’s "Neo-Ottomanism" and Pakistan’s "Neo-Mughalism" Are Clear and Present Danger

It is hard to believe it has just been 20 years since “neo-Ottomanism” hit the stage in Turkey. At that time, a Western official described Turkey as a bridge between East and West and as...

www.aei.org

New achievement unlocked: neo-mughalism

So this leaves only Greater Azerbaijan for the return of the 3 gunpowder empires era. It makes me laugh every time these orientalist idiots, especially the turkophobic ones, make up elements out of their ass. The irony is that the author's foster family probably has a much higher percentage of genetic affinity to pre-Turkic-Mongolic tribes than an ordinary Pakistani living in Pakistan today. Jokes aside, anyone with any seriousness about international politics knows that people like Rubin are just puppets with wind-up arms and talk when you insert a coin, just social media charlatans.