TR TF-X KAAN Fighter Jet

Rodeo said:

They also revised the delivery number of KAAN in 2028. They aim to deliver 10 Block-10 KAAN in 2028.

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Used to be 20. Suboptimal.

TheInsider said:

The first flight is tied to the election date. Expect it to fly something like 1 week before the election.

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It might also happen on the anniversary of the Gallipoli campaign.

It’s disappointing but hey, what can we do ? That was expected.

Heartbang said:

Used to be 20. Suboptimal.

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10 in 2028 prototypes or not ?? than total 20 would build in 2028 but 10 will be prototypes testing and most of them as i know dont became active aircraft for airforce another 10 active aircraft

Zafer said:

People should get used to missed deadlines, there is nothing wrong with setting dates. Missing dates by several months is not a problem at all. You can only tie up loose ends when there is time pressure. Otherwise Moore's law of project management applies "90% of the project takes 90% of the time and the remaining 10% takes another 90% of time". All good.

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One word. untrustworty.

Huelague said:

One word. untrustworty.

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That's only badmouthing.

TheInsider said:

The first flight is tied to the election date. Expect it to fly something like 1 week before the election.

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Who will vote the mayor of istanbul/ankara because of the maid flight of a jet fighter?

B_A said:

Who will vote the mayor of istanbul/ankara because of the maid flight of a jet fighter?

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You'd be suprised.

Holy Cow! People are acting like they have access to TUSAS management board and know everything.

Lockheed Martin just missed the previously declared delivery date of F-35 block 4 TR-3. It has been prosponded by several months.

These kind of delay in such a highly complex and complicated program is a frequent occurrence.

I agree, Kotil shouldn't have Gave a date, that TAI may or may not able to keep. It is always wise to play safe in these stuff. (That is why I think former SSB President insisted on 2024 date)

But if you have such a lack of trust in the higher authority of the most important institution (TAI) and think everything is highly politicized, how do you expect it to successfully deliver a porgram like KAAN? (Because it isn't about the talent, many countries has enough of it. It is much more about state's willingness, initiative and the competence of high-level management who puts everything together in the end)

Afif said:

Holy Cow! People are acting like they have access TUSAS management board and know everything.

Lockheed Martin just missed the previously declared delivery date of F-35 block 4 TR-3. It has been prosponded by several months.

These kind of delay in such a highly complex and complicated program is a frequent occurrence.

I agree, Kotil shouldn't have Gave a date, that TAI may or may not able to keep. It is always wise to play safe in these stuff. (That is why I think former SSB President insisted on 2024 date)

But if you have such a lack of trust in the higher authority of the most important institution (TAI) and think everything is highly politicized, how do you expect it to successfully deliver a porgram like KAAN? (Because it isn't about the talent, many countries has enough of it. It is much more about state's willingness, initiative and the competence of high-level management who puts everything together in the end)

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People insisted on trusting Temel Kotil over İsmail Demir, I really appreciated Demir's realistic attitude and level headed explanations. You can look up posts that go like "Do you know better than Temel Kotil" and turned into an argument. At the of the day it is better to be level headed and not trust everything said at face value. This is also a problem for our planners and military where unrealistic timelines can result in incorrect decision making. It's less important for us in the forums

uçuyorum said:

This is also a problem for our planners and military where unrealistic timelines can result in incorrect decision making.

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This is my problem with the way they handled Kaan's first flight, on top of other big and unnecessary statements. We need to plant our feet firmly on the ground and be realistic on our timelines and goals. If we surpass them, more power to us, but daydreaming about things that are borderline impossible gets us nothing, only wastes our limited resources. I don't want empty promises and false dreams, nor do we really need them, what we need is proper planning and clever use of our resources.

Afif said:

Holy Cow! People are acting like they have access to TUSAS management board and know everything.

Lockheed Martin just missed the previously declared delivery date of F-35 block 4 TR-3. It has been prosponded by several months.

These kind of delay in such a highly complex and complicated program is a frequent occurrence.

I agree, Kotil shouldn't have Gave a date, that TAI may or may not able to keep. It is always wise to play safe in these stuff. (That is why I think former SSB President insisted on 2024 date)

But if you have such a lack of trust in the higher authority of the most important institution (TAI) and think everything is highly politicized, how do you expect it to successfully deliver a porgram like KAAN? (Because it isn't about the talent, many countries has enough of it. It is much more about state's willingness, initiative and the competence of high-level management who puts everything together in the end)

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Temel Kotil placed Turkish Airlines among the top 10 in the world. He is truly a very successful person. But even he doesn't believe that Kaan will fly with a domestic engine in 2028.

Has the government turned the maiden flight date into a political event or are there engineering reasons for delaying? If timing of the maiden flight is geared to the upcoming election, does every day first flight is postponed delay completion of development by a day? I imagine that development work on systems in the aircraft that are not directly related to flight performance data will not be impacted.

The maiden flight schedules of the Hürjet and Anka-3 were also slightly delayed. There were other examples also, both on the unmanned and manned aviation side. My understanding is that the political will has always pressuring TAI, especially in terms of the timetable. The KAAN program is a pinnacle that goes far beyond other previous indigenous TAI projects, and if it had made its first flight on December 27, it would have been an extraordinary achievement for me. If this target is reached in Q1 or Q2 2024, I will still count it as an extraordinary achievement. Looking back, the fact that the program was brought from scratch to this point in such a tight schedule and budget is enough to give me great confidence in my country's aviation industry.

2033 said:

Temel Kotil placed Turkish Airlines among the top 10 in the world. He is truly a very successful person. But even he doesn't believe that Kaan will fly with a domestic engine in 2028.

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Does anybody seriously believe that Kaan will fly with a domestic engine before the 2030's? The 2028 target is based on what? Optimism of the most extreme order, I think. Or nothing at all - just a convenient, fictitious date.

Is there some need to convey the impression that if the US blocked F110 supplies due to political differences, it would not cripple the programme since Turkiye would only need it during the prototype development and testing phase?

Spitfire9 said:

Does anybody seriously believe that Kaan will fly with a domestic engine before the 2030's? The 2028 target is based on what? Optimism of the most extreme order, I think. Or nothing at all - just a convenient, fictitious date.

Is there some need to convey the impression that if the US blocked F110 supplies due to political differences, it would not cripple the programme since Turkiye would only need it during the prototype development and testing phase?

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The target of delivering first MMU KAANs to TAF in 2028 is based on statements by senior officials or agency officials responsible for the program. So it is not based on the assumptions of defense aviation enthusiasts. Whether this target can be realized or not is a matter of debate, but almost all of the dates we discuss in these pages have official references. Although the program is open to the public, it has become largely confidential with the detailed design and prototype manufacturing process. While it is open source information that shapes our ideas on the subject, I think the increasingly closed form of the program makes it difficult to predict the future.

Zafer said:

Kaan can probably fly with the domestic engine as early as the end of 2026 for testing purposes.

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What is the status today for domestic engine? is it in design phase? or prototype building phase? Thank you in advance.

Spitfire9 said:

Does anybody seriously believe that Kaan will fly with a domestic engine before the 2030's? The 2028 target is based on what? Optimism of the most extreme order, I think. Or nothing at all - just a convenient, fictitious date.

Is there some need to convey the impression that if the US blocked F110 supplies due to political differences, it would not cripple the programme since Turkiye would only need it during the prototype development and testing phase?

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I'm still of the opinion that a license built F110(T110), very much can be called a domestic engine.

This issue of delays is also, in my opinion, a very relative area of discussion. Depending on how we look at it, it can be defined as a major failure or within acceptable limits. Judging by the current procurement plans of the Air Force, we are preparing for many possibilities. Can a few months or a calendar year be considered a serious delay in these mega-scale multidisciplinary engineering programs, or is it within acceptable margins? To use a cliché, the difficulties faced by India, which started much earlier than us, are an obvious example. In general, I believe that TAI has succeeded in achieving a performance that has surprised most of the authorities in the world. And sooner or later they will reach the mass production target in this program. Because this program is no longer a technological demonstration or an experiment, it has become a necessity directly related to the survival of the country. The air force can create time with stop-gap solutions, but for the next big step, the Turkish air force now has no alternative.

Perhaps this 2028 'fly on Kaan' date means using a Kaan as a flying testbed (1 x F110 + 1 x T35kN)?