TR Turkiye's F-35 Project and Discussions

No F35s will be delivered to us. Even if delivered they will be export version and come much later. By that time what we will learn from them will be limited. Buying F35B maybe more sensible but Güler is saying 40F35A. Overall, F35 is a bygone train for us. And we are late as usual in preparing our air force. This is disrespectful against our supremely talended brave pilots. Since more than 20 years nothing has been done for our air force. What a stupid mistake. This should actually be punished big time. Still no news from Özgür project. The next three to four years is the most dangerous time period for us. This is the only time window for Israel to attack us together with Greece. They may try it initially without US support, but then mobilize the media and their lobbies in Congress to get help. We need to prepare more intensively and faster.

AlperTunga said:

No F35s will be delivered to us. Even if delivered they will be export version and come much later.

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There is no export version for F-35. Only difference is the radar and the restrictions for APG-85 is not only for us. It is effective for any air force other than USAF/USN. All we can expect for it to be exported to UK or Israel.

Current talks are for the 6 F-35's that were already finished. These are not any type of export versions. They're the same F-35's as others get. And those should not require congressional approval once CAATSA is removed. Because they're already ours. 6 F-35's seems highly probable. The problem starts when you ask to buy more. If we do, they will not be "export versions" either.

AlperTunga said:

The next three to four years is the most dangerous time period for us. This is the only time window for Israel to attack us together with Greece. They may try it initially without US support, but then mobilize the media and their lobbies in Congress to get help. We need to prepare more intensively and faster.

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They will not dare. We are not Iran using missiles with 100+ meter CEP. They know they will be doomed if our defence industry goes war-mode. Even current US production speeds wouldn't be sufficient for israel air defence to resist Tayfun's production speed. No need to mention greek air defences. Just talking about our ballistic capability bothers them enough. Then KE/Anka-3 enters the discussion, bypassing test processes and going lrip immediately. We may not be able to effectively use our F-16's against Israel but KE's patrolling over syria would deter them. And don't tell me we can't produce enough KE's by the time. S5 is already out. If a war occures, 5 will be 50 in no time. You are the one disrespecting our engineers and pilots by saying they could dare.

I get your point. But you're too pessimistic.

AlperTunga said:

No F35s will be delivered to us. Even if delivered they will be export version and come much later.

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Bro, do you have a source about these predictions? Or is it your own opinion?

AlperTunga said:

Still no news from Özgür project.

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As of March 2025 it was stated that a firing test of a Gokdogan missile was carried out with an F16 Ozgur plane carrying Murad Aesa radar.


A year before that in March 2024, the first F16 with Murad radar had flown.


According to below article the Ozgur serial modernisation of f16s in TurAF inventory will have been completed by end of 2026. (This, most probably, is the structural and avionic modernisation of 35 Block 30 aircraft)


As per below link, however it is claimed that these planes will have the Murad Aesa radar too.


This is in line with unconfirmed news about multiple f16s flying and testing the new Murad Aesa radar currently.

Turkic said:

There is no export version for F-35. Only difference is the radar and the restrictions for APG-85 is not only for us. It is effective for any air force other than USAF/USN. All we can expect for it to be exported to UK or Israel.

Current talks are for the 6 F-35's that were already finished. These are not any type of export versions. They're the same F-35's as others get. And those should not require congressional approval once CAATSA is removed. Because they're already ours. 6 F-35's seems highly probable. The problem starts when you ask to buy more. If we do, they will not be "export versions" either.



They will not dare. We are not Iran using missiles with 100+ meter CEP. They know they will be doomed if our defence industry goes war-mode. Even current US production speeds wouldn't be sufficient for israel air defence to resist Tayfun's production speed. No need to mention greek air defences. Just talking about our ballistic capability bothers them enough. Then KE/Anka-3 enters the discussion, bypassing test processes and going lrip immediately. We may not be able to effectively use our F-16's against Israel but KE's patrolling over syria would deter them. And don't tell me we can't produce enough KE's by the time. S5 is already out. If a war occures, 5 will be 50 in no time. You are the one disrespecting our engineers and pilots by saying they could dare.

I get your point. But you're too pessimistic.

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A state has to consider „pessimistic“ scenarios as well. But if Greece and Israel together attacks with 300 jets, and 50 of them being F35 Adir the whole thing will be concluded in one day. If majority of our air force is gone, which KE to be produced after one month will help us?? They will inflict the damage to our key assets and then US and Europe will push for ceasefire. Also currently we are producing Tayfun but meaningful numbers will only be achieved in couple of years. So please someone explain me how we can stop 300 fighter jets with 50 F35 Adir attacking us???

The U.S. Has Already Built Six F-35 Fighters For the Turkish Air Force: Deliveries Expected Before 2027.​

Military watch

The situation isn’t quite that bad: the ‘Özgür II’ Upgrade, including the SLEP Upgrade for all Block 30 aircraft, will be completed this year. After that, it will be the turn of the oldest Block 40 aircraft in 2027–28, followed by the Block 50 aircraft in 2029–30.
In parallel with this, from 2027–28 onwards, 24 or more Eurofighter aircraft equipped with MK0 AESA radar and the latest incremental hardware and software updates from BAE Systems will be delivered for the aircraft from Qatar and Oman. Together, they will represent a genuine qualitative upgrade for the Turkish fleet by 2030.
The F-35 is said to be the best aircraft in the world in terms of stealth and sensor fusion (the US has never had an equal opponent such as the J-20 with which to make a comparison), but in kinetic terms the aircraft is a failure; the F-35 platform serves primarily to effectively destroy fourth-generation aircraft according to the ‘First Look First Shoot’ principle.
However, when networked 4.5+ generation fighter aircraft such as the F-16 Özgür II and the Eurofighter, as well as drones such as the Kizilelma and Super Simsek, come into play, the situation looks more balanced again.

Forget the idea that we’ll become a superpower and can increase our annual budget without limit – it amounts to no more than 45–55 billion US dollars, and that’s a lot, because with every dollar, every lira, that we put into our defence industry, it feels as though 1 Dollar is worth 2–3; it then feels like a budget of 80–90 billion US dollars, because we pay the actual price + personnel and development costs, rather than the exorbitant profit margins charged by the US and Europe. That is why we can do more than European countries with a budget of 60–70 billion US dollars, but this does not make our budget infinitely larger – it remains the same and is increased only minimally year on year.

The F-16 Ozgur ll is a fully Turkish origin project or it has material from other than Turkish sources?

Yasar_TR said:

Bro, do you have a source about these predictions? Or is it your own opinion?




As of March 2025 it was stated that a firing test of a Gokdogan missile was carried out with an F16 Ozgur plane carrying Murad Aesa radar.

F-16 ÖZGÜR'den test atışları

2025 yılında F-16 ÖZGÜR Uçağından ilk defa AESA Burun Radarı veri bağı güdümü ile hava hedefine GÖKDOĞAN atışı gerçekleştirildiği açıklandı.

www.defenceturk.net

A year before that in March 2024, the first F16 with Murad radar had flown.

Milli AESA Burun Radarı ilk kez F-16 ÖZGÜR ile uçtu | SavunmaSanayiST

ASELSAN Milli AESA Burun Radarı, F-16 ÖZGÜR savaş uçağıyla ilk uçuşunu gerçekleştirdi. Milli AESA Burun Radarı'nın ilk uçuşu başarıyla tamamlandı.

www.savunmasanayist.com

According to below article the Ozgur serial modernisation of f16s in TurAF inventory will have been completed by end of 2026. (This, most probably, is the structural and avionic modernisation of 35 Block 30 aircraft)

F-16 ÖZGÜR Modernisation to be Completed by 2026’s End | TURDEF

The Turkish MoD activity report included that the serial modernisation of F-16 fighters in the Turkish Air Force inventory will be done by the end of 2026.

turdef.com

As per below link, however it is claimed that these planes will have the Murad Aesa radar too.

Zona Militar

ÖZGÜR Program: The Turkish Air Force will receive the latest F-16 Block 30 modernized with ASELSAN’s new MURAD radar by the end of the year Over the past decades, Türkiye has devoted significant...

www.facebook.com

This is in line with unconfirmed news about multiple f16s flying and testing the new Murad Aesa radar currently.

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I am aware of these. Greece currently have more than 50 f16V standard modernized jets as well as 24 Rafales. We are nowhere near. Our problem is that we are extrapolating our development five years into future and assuming we are currently that strong. This is a fallacy and gives a false sense of security. We cannot feel secure with only couple of hundreds Bora and Tayfun 1 missiles in stock. Simply too few.

IC3M@N FX said:

The situation isn’t quite that bad: the ‘Özgür II’ Upgrade, including the SLEP Upgrade for all Block 30 aircraft, will be completed this year. After that, it will be the turn of the oldest Block 40 aircraft in 2027–28, followed by the Block 50 aircraft in 2029–30.
In parallel with this, from 2027–28 onwards, 24 or more Eurofighter aircraft equipped with MK0 AESA radar and the latest incremental hardware and software updates from BAE Systems will be delivered for the aircraft from Qatar and Oman. Together, they will represent a genuine qualitative upgrade for the Turkish fleet by 2030.
The F-35 is said to be the best aircraft in the world in terms of stealth and sensor fusion (the US has never had an equal opponent such as the J-20 with which to make a comparison), but in kinetic terms the aircraft is a failure; the F-35 platform serves primarily to effectively destroy fourth-generation aircraft according to the ‘First Look First Shoot’ principle.
However, when networked 4.5+ generation fighter aircraft such as the F-16 Özgür II and the Eurofighter, as well as drones such as the Kizilelma and Super Simsek, come into play, the situation looks more balanced again.

Forget the idea that we’ll become a superpower and can increase our annual budget without limit – it amounts to no more than 45–55 billion US dollars, and that’s a lot, because with every dollar, every lira, that we put into our defence industry, it feels as though 1 Dollar is worth 2–3; it then feels like a budget of 80–90 billion US dollars, because we pay the actual price + personnel and development costs, rather than the exorbitant profit margins charged by the US and Europe. That is why we can do more than European countries with a budget of 60–70 billion US dollars, but this does not make our budget infinitely larger – it remains the same and is increased only minimally year on year.

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Again we are talking about 2029 2030. How are we sure they will give us this time? They know this all. They are just weighing now the pros and cons. What is very bad for them is the fact that Trump does not want any such war in the middle east. What bothers me is that we have put our destiny into the decisions of others and currently we dont have control of it.

And how likely do you think it is that the situation in Greece will escalate, and that people there will feel the window of opportunity is closing and that pressure must now be brought to bear by 2028/29 or 2030? I’d say 0.0% – and why?

The F-35, F-16 Block 70s and the Rafales will remain grounded once stocks of missiles and bombs run low, no matter how capable the platform may be in the event of a conflict. A country is only capable of waging war or engaging in conflict if it has control over and a full supply of its ammunition, and others hold that control over Greece – they decide how far Greece is allowed to go and how far it is not. Next, let us assume that Greece is supplied – that is, the US, Israel and Europe supply Greece, whatever the cost. At that moment, NATO is dead, and the Third World War breaks out. China, Russia and Iran would intervene and go ‘all-in’ in Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel. As the US and Europe cannot finance a multi-front war, the supplies to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel were to be cut off they would collapse – this is known as the ‘window of opportunity’ for China, Russia and Iran– global supply chains would break down, and chaos would break out on the markets in Europe and the US.

Have you ever looked at the ammunition stocks of the US and Europe? They are turning to Turkey to replenish their stocks quickly and cheaply – in preparation for Russia and China. They can no longer keep up themselves because it is too expensive and too slow.

They cannot attack Turkey because doing so would set off a chain of events.

AlperTunga said:

A state has to consider „pessimistic“ scenarios as well. But if Greece and Israel together attacks with 300 jets, and 50 of them being F35 Adir the whole thing will be concluded in one day. If majority of our air force is gone, which KE to be produced after one month will help us?? They will inflict the damage to our key assets and then US and Europe will push for ceasefire. Also currently we are producing Tayfun but meaningful numbers will only be achieved in couple of years. So please someone explain me how we can stop 300 fighter jets with 50 F35 Adir attacking us???

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You talk like we are vulnerable against 250 jets and there's also 50 impossible targets. First, we can match all of their 4th gen jets. We may not have enough Özgür F16's but we have E-7T's. We can easily match over Aegean. The only problem is the F-35's. We do not have any fighter jets to answer them. Nor we can send E-7T's close enough to detect them. But there are things we can do. For example, we can deploy more than a hundred uav's to search the sky with tv/iir cameras to not take them down but to deter them. If they get detected entering the airspace, they will know once the F-16's arrive to the point, they will not have any upper hand in dogfight. They will be risking their most valuable assets. We know Baykar can produce more than 1 TB-2's everyday. Add TB-3's and Akıncı's. This is watching the sky, literally. You can not keep this for months or stop all of them but until Israel gets to understand what you're doing, you have already gained days. What you can not do with this plan is stopping the first strike. We will lose some key assets but we have much more key assets than they can hit at once.

In those days, Aselsan will start to deliver Murad aesa radars in more numbers to Baykar, adding the tv/iir layer a more effective capability. This time you're not setting a wall of eyes to the sky. Now those F-35's will be shot down in a wrong move against KE's.

About our ballistic inventory, our only assets are not Bora and Tayfun Block-1. We have TRG series missiles covering the northeast Greece, Kara-Atmaca missiles covering as far as Athens or Tel-Aviv, cruise missiles and again, TRG series missiles to be launched from air & more.

There are levels of pessimism. You're real high.

AlperTunga said:

I am aware of these.

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If so, what is the point?

Yes, due to incompetent management of F35 programme and S400 debacle plus the greed of top management over Kaan ‘s engine development, we have made grave errors and fallen behind during the last decade. But now we are in the process of making amends. We just need to be a bit patient. After 2030, no one will dare attack Turkiye.

The Tranche 3 Typhoons we are to receive shortly, are real air superiority fighters. No matter for all the hype about Rafales, the Typhoon is a thoroughbred air interceptor and superiority plane. It was built for air combat. It‘s MK-0 radar has nearly double T/R modules and is much more potent than that small RB2 radar on the Rafale.
We will have 24 of those and then 12 upgraded to Tranche 4 status Typhoons after 2028, and then 20 top standard typhoons by 2032, with another 20 on option. (That is potentially 76 top notch Typhoons)

Before this program is in place, by 2030 to 2031, we should have our 40 Kaan fighters too.

Before 40 Kaan jets are fully operational in planned quantity, our f16 fleet will have been furnished with Ozgur 2 modernisation.

Everyone is talking about KE and Anka-3. But until we can produce the TF6000 and TF10000 engines in bulk and supply Baykar and Tusas so that they can manufacture these planes in meaningful numbers with matured onboard technologies, they will not have much effect.

According to TEI, the engines for the KE and Anka-3 will be available by 2028.

Only recently, a large quantity of Tayfun block 2 missiles were delivered to TSK. (Current according to informed sources, the quantity is estimated to be more than 300 pieces already) Together with Bora and land based Atmaca missiles, Greek navy is not going to create any problems.

In 2-3 years time we will have 6 Reis Class subs, 8 I-Class frigates and 4 Barbaros Class frigates with MLU applied to give us the modern naval power in the Eastern Mediterranean. (Not counting 4 Ada Class corvettes and a portion of the 10 Hisar Class OPVs, TCG Anadolu.) after 2030, first ship of Tepe Class, TCG Kocatepe will also be ready.

Are you expecting an imminent attack from Israel and Greece?
An attack to a NATO country?
When NATO and Europe is in need of that country?

AlperTunga said:

A state has to consider „pessimistic“ scenarios as well. But if Greece and Israel together attacks with 300 jets, and 50 of them being F35 Adir the whole thing will be concluded in one day. If majority of our air force is gone, which KE to be produced after one month will help us?? They will inflict the damage to our key assets and then US and Europe will push for ceasefire. Also currently we are producing Tayfun but meaningful numbers will only be achieved in couple of years. So please someone explain me how we can stop 300 fighter jets with 50 F35 Adir attacking us???

Click to expand...

There is a big difference between pessimistic scenario and impossible scenario:

1. Israel has 48 F-35's total, a jet infamous for very low combat readiness, even at 40% combat readiness this means 22 air worthy frames at given time.

2. Likewise Greece has 150 F-16's and 24 Rafales. We know that the 50 that was modernized had to go through very comprehensive and expensive repair program before modernization could be applied. This would indicate low combat readiness for frames awaiting modernisation and 2 crashes in 2 years shows problems with new ones too. We don't know the combat readiness of Rafale's but we do know that Greece did not buy spare parts and they are flying less than 1/4 of the recommended NATO flight time. So to reach that number Greece would need to get all of its air worthy frames in the air

3. Even if Greece somehow managed to get all its fleet in the air. From the deal that was announced they have nowhere near the required smart munitions to equip them.

4. Let alone an actual operation Greece never had an exercise that had this many jets in the air at the same time. Almost none of their pilots have fired an actual live ammunition even in exercises.

5. This scenario also assumes all this jets are attacking an unaware enemy when in reality Greece lacks the strategic depth to stage any attack on Turkey without notice. This kind of attack would need a logistic build up measured in months. Even if that goes unnoticed Greek airbases are close enough to Turkey to be watched by any advanced EOTS plus the satellite imagery.

6. For Israel again it would require to avoid detection by Turkish assets in North Cyprus, Syria, Turkish Navy and Arab states that would definitely not benefit from destabilized Turkey like Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

7. Operation of this size would most definitely need refuel tankers which would be impossible to hide

8. Turkey currently has 65+ long range radar installations(300+ km range), one of the worlds Most capable AWACs, 200+ UAVs that can monitor both Greek and some important Israeli Airbases, very capable Navy all would make this attack much harder

9. It has been months since all of Iran's army has been "obliterated" but for some reason both US and Israel still mostly uses stand off munitons fired outside of Iranian Air space. Iran F-14's even manage to do bombing runs US bases in Bahrain and fired on Israeli F-16's. And Iran's airforce was already non-existent before the war

10 - Israel still hasn't managed to subdue Iran. It would be extremely dangerous to get into a war with Turkey before that finishes

11. What will Israel gain if operation is successful? Another 20 years of war. What they risk if they are unsuccessful? Losing their most prized assets, getting into a war with very large and trained Nato member and losing all their gains made in last years. But more importantly what will happen if they just wait which answer is that probably nothing. Turkey is not a direct threat to Israel and won't be as long as America exists. It is just struggle for influence between 2 regional rivals just like Iran and Turkey


If every government have to consider pessimistic scenarios, you should apply the same logic to Greece and Israel as well. Why would they take this catastrophic risk when they can just keep the status quo. And this is not even getting into the implications for NATO and Europe

Yasar_TR said:

This is in line with unconfirmed news about multiple f16s flying and testing the new Murad Aesa radar currently.

Click to expand...

and

AlperTunga said:

A state has to consider „pessimistic“ scenarios as well. But if Greece and Israel together attacks with 300 jets, and 50 of them being F35 Adir the whole thing will be concluded in one day. If majority of our air force is gone, which KE to be produced after one month will help us?? They will inflict the damage to our key assets and then US and Europe will push for ceasefire. Also currently we are producing Tayfun but meaningful numbers will only be achieved in couple of years. So please someone explain me how we can stop 300 fighter jets with 50 F35 Adir attacking us???

Click to expand...

Combat readiness is a real thing, but let's say your numbers are true. They can inflict a lot of damage to us but "concluded in one day"? What are you talking about?

War is not a apples vs. apples. In fact it is a more of an equation with thousands of unknowns. But those who has intention to start a conflict, are trying to answer that basic question: How we can inflict damage to them, also how they can inflict damage to us?

The day after their attack, we will begin to arm every hostile neighbor and factions of Israel with advanced weaponry. Both of their navies will be a lot of trouble and with that their sea trades will be cut off. We will pour missiles, kamikaze uavs on them like they have never seen. We will sure crack the iron dome with our production capacity, and with any sense of weakness we all know what will happen to Israel. Greece islands will be gone, especially close ones, forever.

It will never be concluded in one day. Noone attack us and can get away with that, even ceasefire efforts you mentioned. A little while after an attack, they will see what a real "existential threat" looks like. Even if they endure, they will face a hostile nation for years to come.

We will always feel threatened in some ways. That is in our codes, in our genes; we cant help it and there are reasons for it which i will not go in there. But you should realize, the days of we feel low against west is now over...

The doomsayers always end the scenarios with us being hit hard. Then we are defeated and game concludes. But geopolitics never end if you are not genocided. Let's continue the brainstorm; Turkish republic is hit hard with 12 days war style air campaign. Economy collapses. Chaos in the streets.

What do you think the people with guns (the army) would do? Martial law. Rationing. War economy. Violent suppression of unrest. Even in the nightmare scenario where the southeast is occupied by PKK, it's not really possible that the rest of the country fracture.

This would be really, really painful for the civilian population. Definitely a humanitarian crisis that would eclipse the Ukrainian War. But now the second and third order effects:

• At the very least 3-4 million people under arms.
• A minimum of 25 million displaced persons.
• Whatever industrial capactiy left in Turkey goes towards disruptive weapons. Shaheds, kamikaze USVs, ballistic missiles
• Eastern Med. becomes USV hotspot. Shipping goes out the window.
• Bosphorus shipping route is gone for the foreseeable future. (remember grain deal crisis?)
• The new administration might actually go for biological/chemical agents
• EU has millions of nationalist Turks predisposed to terror acts.
• Georgia is out. Armenia is out. Azerbaijan definitely out. They become Russian/Iranian aligned.

And that's just what I can think of. Even the zealots in Israel are not that mad.

AlperTunga said:

A state has to consider „pessimistic“ scenarios as well. But if Greece and Israel together attacks with 300 jets, and 50 of them being F35 Adir the whole thing will be concluded in one day. If majority of our air force is gone, which KE to be produced after one month will help us?? They will inflict the damage to our key assets and then US and Europe will push for ceasefire. Also currently we are producing Tayfun but meaningful numbers will only be achieved in couple of years. So please someone explain me how we can stop 300 fighter jets with 50 F35 Adir attacking us???

Click to expand...

They can attack us in suprise attack and inflict heavy demage but now we are alot bigger than greece + israel combined and we can endure war for years with our own means like 10+ years . They are small and soon will be no where to hide their economy totally desteoyed , its like Japan suprise attack on pearl harbon

Ahlatshah said:

Combat readiness is a real thing, but let's say your numbers are true. They can inflict a lot of damage to us but "concluded in one day"? What are you talking about?

War is not a apples vs. apples. In fact it is a more of an equation with thousands of unknowns. But those who has intention to start a conflict, are trying to answer that basic question: How we can inflict damage to them, also how they can inflict damage to us?

The day after their attack, we will begin to arm every hostile neighbor and factions of Israel with advanced weaponry. Both of their navies will be a lot of trouble and with that their sea trades will be cut off. We will pour missiles, kamikaze uavs on them like they have never seen. We will sure crack the iron dome with our production capacity, and with any sense of weakness we all know what will happen to Israel. Greece islands will be gone, especially close ones, forever.

It will never be concluded in one day. Noone attack us and can get away with that, even ceasefire efforts you mentioned. A little while after an attack, they will see what a real "existential threat" looks like. Even if they endure, they will face a hostile nation for years to come.

We will always feel threatened in some ways. That is in our codes, in our genes; we cant help it and there are reasons for it which i will not go in there. But you should realize, the days of we feel low against west is now over...

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Look at Ukraine Russia war. Like minded people envisaged that the war would end in two weeks.

Going into a war with Turkiye would be signing its own death sentence for Greece.

They are not that stupid.

Very good and balanced video

What I understand from Fuat Oktay's statements:
- Technically, there is full agreement with WH regarding the solution. It is expected that the congress will be notified after the necessary arrangements are made. At this point, the work seems to have been largely completed because the highest authorities now have a statement that this issue is imminent.
- The Turkish side sees industry participation as essential to fill the order-request for 40 F35s made to relevant institutions.
- The Turkish side is careful not to appear too eager for the F-35 order (an additional 34 airframes that can made Lot 20-21 at the earliest), and aims to break the psychological red line of anti-TR lobbying activities with the solution of the CAATSA problem in the first place and the rapid transfer of 6 TR-2 F-35s. Therefore, the main goal is to remove the main obstacle mentioned in CAATSA and JSF industrial participation is seen as a strategic goal in the future.
- Political will is see that the purchase of F-35s is not essential factor as they two decades ago, but that a limited purchase will be beneficial for the current KAAN and its affiliated ecosystem to reach operational maturity.