TR Turkiye's F-35 Project and Discussions

[Fatman17]

The U.S. Has Already Built Six F-35 Fighters For the Turkish Air Force: Deliveries Expected Before 2027.​

Military watch

 

[IC3M@N FX]

The situation isn’t quite that bad: the ‘Özgür II’ Upgrade, including the SLEP Upgrade for all Block 30 aircraft, will be completed this year. After that, it will be the turn of the oldest Block 40 aircraft in 2027–28, followed by the Block 50 aircraft in 2029–30.
In parallel with this, from 2027–28 onwards, 24 or more Eurofighter aircraft equipped with MK0 AESA radar and the latest incremental hardware and software updates from BAE Systems will be delivered for the aircraft from Qatar and Oman. Together, they will represent a genuine qualitative upgrade for the Turkish fleet by 2030.
The F-35 is said to be the best aircraft in the world in terms of stealth and sensor fusion (the US has never had an equal opponent such as the J-20 with which to make a comparison), but in kinetic terms the aircraft is a failure; the F-35 platform serves primarily to effectively destroy fourth-generation aircraft according to the ‘First Look First Shoot’ principle.
However, when networked 4.5+ generation fighter aircraft such as the F-16 Özgür II and the Eurofighter, as well as drones such as the Kizilelma and Super Simsek, come into play, the situation looks more balanced again.

Forget the idea that we’ll become a superpower and can increase our annual budget without limit – it amounts to no more than 45–55 billion US dollars, and that’s a lot, because with every dollar, every lira, that we put into our defence industry, it feels as though 1 Dollar is worth 2–3; it then feels like a budget of 80–90 billion US dollars, because we pay the actual price + personnel and development costs, rather than the exorbitant profit margins charged by the US and Europe. That is why we can do more than European countries with a budget of 60–70 billion US dollars, but this does not make our budget infinitely larger – it remains the same and is increased only minimally year on year.

 

[Fatman17]

The F-16 Ozgur ll is a fully Turkish origin project or it has material from other than Turkish sources?

 

[AlperTunga]

Bro, do you have a source about these predictions? Or is it your own opinion?




As of March 2025 it was stated that a firing test of a Gokdogan missile was carried out with an F16 Ozgur plane carrying Murad Aesa radar.

F-16 ÖZGÜR'den test atışları

2025 yılında F-16 ÖZGÜR Uçağından ilk defa AESA Burun Radarı veri bağı güdümü ile hava hedefine GÖKDOĞAN atışı gerçekleştirildiği açıklandı.

www.defenceturk.net

A year before that in March 2024, the first F16 with Murad radar had flown.

Milli AESA Burun Radarı ilk kez F-16 ÖZGÜR ile uçtu | SavunmaSanayiST

ASELSAN Milli AESA Burun Radarı, F-16 ÖZGÜR savaş uçağıyla ilk uçuşunu gerçekleştirdi. Milli AESA Burun Radarı'nın ilk uçuşu başarıyla tamamlandı.

www.savunmasanayist.com

According to below article the Ozgur serial modernisation of f16s in TurAF inventory will have been completed by end of 2026. (This, most probably, is the structural and avionic modernisation of 35 Block 30 aircraft)

F-16 ÖZGÜR Modernisation to be Completed by 2026’s End | TURDEF

The Turkish MoD activity report included that the serial modernisation of F-16 fighters in the Turkish Air Force inventory will be done by the end of 2026.

turdef.com

As per below link, however it is claimed that these planes will have the Murad Aesa radar too.

Zona Militar

ÖZGÜR Program: The Turkish Air Force will receive the latest F-16 Block 30 modernized with ASELSAN’s new MURAD radar by the end of the year Over the past decades, Türkiye has devoted significant...

www.facebook.com

This is in line with unconfirmed news about multiple f16s flying and testing the new Murad Aesa radar currently.

I am aware of these. Greece currently have more than 50 f16V standard modernized jets as well as 24 Rafales. We are nowhere near. Our problem is that we are extrapolating our development five years into future and assuming we are currently that strong. This is a fallacy and gives a false sense of security. We cannot feel secure with only couple of hundreds Bora and Tayfun 1 missiles in stock. Simply too few.

 

[AlperTunga]

The situation isn’t quite that bad: the ‘Özgür II’ Upgrade, including the SLEP Upgrade for all Block 30 aircraft, will be completed this year. After that, it will be the turn of the oldest Block 40 aircraft in 2027–28, followed by the Block 50 aircraft in 2029–30.
In parallel with this, from 2027–28 onwards, 24 or more Eurofighter aircraft equipped with MK0 AESA radar and the latest incremental hardware and software updates from BAE Systems will be delivered for the aircraft from Qatar and Oman. Together, they will represent a genuine qualitative upgrade for the Turkish fleet by 2030.
The F-35 is said to be the best aircraft in the world in terms of stealth and sensor fusion (the US has never had an equal opponent such as the J-20 with which to make a comparison), but in kinetic terms the aircraft is a failure; the F-35 platform serves primarily to effectively destroy fourth-generation aircraft according to the ‘First Look First Shoot’ principle.
However, when networked 4.5+ generation fighter aircraft such as the F-16 Özgür II and the Eurofighter, as well as drones such as the Kizilelma and Super Simsek, come into play, the situation looks more balanced again.

Forget the idea that we’ll become a superpower and can increase our annual budget without limit – it amounts to no more than 45–55 billion US dollars, and that’s a lot, because with every dollar, every lira, that we put into our defence industry, it feels as though 1 Dollar is worth 2–3; it then feels like a budget of 80–90 billion US dollars, because we pay the actual price + personnel and development costs, rather than the exorbitant profit margins charged by the US and Europe. That is why we can do more than European countries with a budget of 60–70 billion US dollars, but this does not make our budget infinitely larger – it remains the same and is increased only minimally year on year.

Again we are talking about 2029 2030. How are we sure they will give us this time? They know this all. They are just weighing now the pros and cons. What is very bad for them is the fact that Trump does not want any such war in the middle east. What bothers me is that we have put our destiny into the decisions of others and currently we dont have control of it.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

And how likely do you think it is that the situation in Greece will escalate, and that people there will feel the window of opportunity is closing and that pressure must now be brought to bear by 2028/29 or 2030? I’d say 0.0% – and why?

The F-35, F-16 Block 70s and the Rafales will remain grounded once stocks of missiles and bombs run low, no matter how capable the platform may be in the event of a conflict. A country is only capable of waging war or engaging in conflict if it has control over and a full supply of its ammunition, and others hold that control over Greece – they decide how far Greece is allowed to go and how far it is not. Next, let us assume that Greece is supplied – that is, the US, Israel and Europe supply Greece, whatever the cost. At that moment, NATO is dead, and the Third World War breaks out. China, Russia and Iran would intervene and go ‘all-in’ in Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel. As the US and Europe cannot finance a multi-front war, the supplies to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel were to be cut off they would collapse – this is known as the ‘window of opportunity’ for China, Russia and Iran– global supply chains would break down, and chaos would break out on the markets in Europe and the US.

Have you ever looked at the ammunition stocks of the US and Europe? They are turning to Turkey to replenish their stocks quickly and cheaply – in preparation for Russia and China. They can no longer keep up themselves because it is too expensive and too slow.

They cannot attack Turkey because doing so would set off a chain of events.

 

[Turkic]

A state has to consider „pessimistic“ scenarios as well. But if Greece and Israel together attacks with 300 jets, and 50 of them being F35 Adir the whole thing will be concluded in one day. If majority of our air force is gone, which KE to be produced after one month will help us?? They will inflict the damage to our key assets and then US and Europe will push for ceasefire. Also currently we are producing Tayfun but meaningful numbers will only be achieved in couple of years. So please someone explain me how we can stop 300 fighter jets with 50 F35 Adir attacking us???

You talk like we are vulnerable against 250 jets and there's also 50 impossible targets. First, we can match all of their 4th gen jets. We may not have enough Özgür F16's but we have E-7T's. We can easily match over Aegean. The only problem is the F-35's. We do not have any fighter jets to answer them. Nor we can send E-7T's close enough to detect them. But there are things we can do. For example, we can deploy more than a hundred uav's to search the sky with tv/iir cameras to not take them down but to deter them. If they get detected entering the airspace, they will know once the F-16's arrive to the point, they will not have any upper hand in dogfight. They will be risking their most valuable assets. We know Baykar can produce more than 1 TB-2's everyday. Add TB-3's and Akıncı's. This is watching the sky, literally. You can not keep this for months or stop all of them but until Israel gets to understand what you're doing, you have already gained days. What you can not do with this plan is stopping the first strike. We will lose some key assets but we have much more key assets than they can hit at once.

In those days, Aselsan will start to deliver Murad aesa radars in more numbers to Baykar, adding the tv/iir layer a more effective capability. This time you're not setting a wall of eyes to the sky. Now those F-35's will be shot down in a wrong move against KE's.

About our ballistic inventory, our only assets are not Bora and Tayfun Block-1. We have TRG series missiles covering the northeast Greece, Kara-Atmaca missiles covering as far as Athens or Tel-Aviv, cruise missiles and again, TRG series missiles to be launched from air & more.

There are levels of pessimism. You're real high.

 

[Yasar_TR]

I am aware of these.

If so, what is the point?

Yes, due to incompetent management of F35 programme and S400 debacle plus the greed of top management over Kaan ‘s engine development, we have made grave errors and fallen behind during the last decade. But now we are in the process of making amends. We just need to be a bit patient. After 2030, no one will dare attack Turkiye.

The Tranche 3 Typhoons we are to receive shortly, are real air superiority fighters. No matter for all the hype about Rafales, the Typhoon is a thoroughbred air interceptor and superiority plane. It was built for air combat. It‘s MK-0 radar has nearly double T/R modules and is much more potent than that small RB2 radar on the Rafale.
We will have 24 of those and then 12 upgraded to Tranche 4 status Typhoons after 2028, and then 20 top standard typhoons by 2032, with another 20 on option. (That is potentially 76 top notch Typhoons)

Before this program is in place, by 2030 to 2031, we should have our 40 Kaan fighters too.

Before 40 Kaan jets are fully operational in planned quantity, our f16 fleet will have been furnished with Ozgur 2 modernisation.

Everyone is talking about KE and Anka-3. But until we can produce the TF6000 and TF10000 engines in bulk and supply Baykar and Tusas so that they can manufacture these planes in meaningful numbers with matured onboard technologies, they will not have much effect.

According to TEI, the engines for the KE and Anka-3 will be available by 2028.

Only recently, a large quantity of Tayfun block 2 missiles were delivered to TSK. (Current according to informed sources, the quantity is estimated to be more than 300 pieces already) Together with Bora and land based Atmaca missiles, Greek navy is not going to create any problems.

In 2-3 years time we will have 6 Reis Class subs, 8 I-Class frigates and 4 Barbaros Class frigates with MLU applied to give us the modern naval power in the Eastern Mediterranean. (Not counting 4 Ada Class corvettes and a portion of the 10 Hisar Class OPVs, TCG Anadolu.) after 2030, first ship of Tepe Class, TCG Kocatepe will also be ready.

Are you expecting an imminent attack from Israel and Greece?
An attack to a NATO country?
When NATO and Europe is in need of that country?

 

[MonteCarlo]

A state has to consider „pessimistic“ scenarios as well. But if Greece and Israel together attacks with 300 jets, and 50 of them being F35 Adir the whole thing will be concluded in one day. If majority of our air force is gone, which KE to be produced after one month will help us?? They will inflict the damage to our key assets and then US and Europe will push for ceasefire. Also currently we are producing Tayfun but meaningful numbers will only be achieved in couple of years. So please someone explain me how we can stop 300 fighter jets with 50 F35 Adir attacking us???

There is a big difference between pessimistic scenario and impossible scenario:

1. Israel has 48 F-35's total, a jet infamous for very low combat readiness, even at 40% combat readiness this means 22 air worthy frames at given time.

2. Likewise Greece has 150 F-16's and 24 Rafales. We know that the 50 that was modernized had to go through very comprehensive and expensive repair program before modernization could be applied. This would indicate low combat readiness for frames awaiting modernisation and 2 crashes in 2 years shows problems with new ones too. We don't know the combat readiness of Rafale's but we do know that Greece did not buy spare parts and they are flying less than 1/4 of the recommended NATO flight time. So to reach that number Greece would need to get all of its air worthy frames in the air

3. Even if Greece somehow managed to get all its fleet in the air. From the deal that was announced they have nowhere near the required smart munitions to equip them.

4. Let alone an actual operation Greece never had an exercise that had this many jets in the air at the same time. Almost none of their pilots have fired an actual live ammunition even in exercises.

5. This scenario also assumes all this jets are attacking an unaware enemy when in reality Greece lacks the strategic depth to stage any attack on Turkey without notice. This kind of attack would need a logistic build up measured in months. Even if that goes unnoticed Greek airbases are close enough to Turkey to be watched by any advanced EOTS plus the satellite imagery.

6. For Israel again it would require to avoid detection by Turkish assets in North Cyprus, Syria, Turkish Navy and Arab states that would definitely not benefit from destabilized Turkey like Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

7. Operation of this size would most definitely need refuel tankers which would be impossible to hide

8. Turkey currently has 65+ long range radar installations(300+ km range), one of the worlds Most capable AWACs, 200+ UAVs that can monitor both Greek and some important Israeli Airbases, very capable Navy all would make this attack much harder

9. It has been months since all of Iran's army has been "obliterated" but for some reason both US and Israel still mostly uses stand off munitons fired outside of Iranian Air space. Iran F-14's even manage to do bombing runs US bases in Bahrain and fired on Israeli F-16's. And Iran's airforce was already non-existent before the war

10 - Israel still hasn't managed to subdue Iran. It would be extremely dangerous to get into a war with Turkey before that finishes

11. What will Israel gain if operation is successful? Another 20 years of war. What they risk if they are unsuccessful? Losing their most prized assets, getting into a war with very large and trained Nato member and losing all their gains made in last years. But more importantly what will happen if they just wait which answer is that probably nothing. Turkey is not a direct threat to Israel and won't be as long as America exists. It is just struggle for influence between 2 regional rivals just like Iran and Turkey


If every government have to consider pessimistic scenarios, you should apply the same logic to Greece and Israel as well. Why would they take this catastrophic risk when they can just keep the status quo. And this is not even getting into the implications for NATO and Europe

 

[mTT]

This is in line with unconfirmed news about multiple f16s flying and testing the new Murad Aesa radar currently.

and

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2076233333848027386