Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions

[RMZN]

Whats happening rn is Azerbaijan's mistake, no doubt
Now that the Armenians have restocked on ammunitions and restored their vigour, it will be more difficult than before to win the war especially that they became more prudent and careful especially with Iran joining the fray
Truly, Azerbaijan have nothing else other than blaming itself rn


Now they are announcing their will to fight.....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1700467312329982312

Except this time Armenia cant just easily send supplies and equipment into Karabakh to reinforce their separatist proxy forces there like they did in 2020. The only option for them would be to forcefully open the Lachin corridor, which would mean Armenia going out of their way to officially attack Azerbaijan in an attempt to aid terrorist forces occupying Azerbaijans territory. No more crying "Azerbaijan is the aggressor, we wanted peace" then.

 

[Agha Sher]

Pashinyan is desperatly calling everybody for help.

Today he called Macron, Scholz, Blinken and Raisi. He cried to every single one that the situation is tense

Intense air shipments continue between Ganja and Nakhchivan

 

[Agha Sher]

Reports that armenian army opened fire on Azerbaijani positions!

Weather in Karabakh seems to be too bad for an operation. Very rainy and foggy.

 

[Agha Sher]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1700493283862982950

Armenia accumulates troops in Goris, opposite to the Lachin road. They may attempt to break through Lachin and connect with armenian terrorists in Karabakh.

 

[Anmdt]

What is saddening the most, i don't see any voices from high-ups, or any declaration by state on the matter and towards Iran's attitude.

 

[Gary]

Is there a reliable estimate on the size of the Armenian army after their defeat 2 years ago ?

 

[GoatsMilk]

What is saddening the most, i don't see any voices from high-ups, or any declaration by state on the matter and towards Iran's attitude.

A barking dog doesn't bite.

 

[Afif]

Is there a reliable estimate on the size of the Armenian army after their defeat 2 years ago ?

Nope, at least I couldn't make an accurate guess based on open sources.

 

[AWP]

If Turkey attacked Iran first and Iran responded to that , can Turkey invoke Article 5 ?

 

[uçuyorum]

If Turkey attacked Iran first and Iran responded to that , can Turkey invoke Article 5 ?

Pretty sure you need to be the victim and not the aggressor but even if you could, they probably wouldn't feel compelled to help the aggressor

 

[GoatsMilk]

People need to understand that NATO will never help Turkiye unless it helps their wider ambitions. Every time we looked to do anything americans always threatened us that NATO wont be with us.

In 1964 letter President Lyndon Johnson wrote to Ecevit basically threatening him not to intervene against he greeks in cyprus he said that should the soviet union attack us becuase of our intervention in cyprus that NATO wouldn't necessarily protect Turkiye from it. Basically saying your own your own.

Ecevit in his response basically pointed out that if the nato mechanism is so simple and weak that you pick and choose who and when to defend even when directly invaded by the soviets, then article 5 and the alliance holds no value to Turkiye. And others should be warry of placing their trust and faith in NATO.

NATO will not defend Turkiye. When Russians in recent memory were flying their jets into our airspace to threaten us, the Turks shot one down most NATO nations took their air defences out of Turkiye and blamed Turkiye for everything. The Russians were portrayed as honest brokers who wouldn't tell a lie and would never ever provoke or instigate trouble. Can you imagine the non stop troubler makers and liars were portrayed as the good guys by many NATO members.

And come on brown skinned Muslims, do you honestly believe that the white americans would fight a war to protect their most hated Muslim foe the Turks? wake up.

NATO is basically a carrot and stick tool used against Turkiye. Do anything in your interest and NATO is against you, do what we want and we will let you think NATO is with you.

Just look at the recent Azeri/Armo war americans and europeans were rushing to speak against azerbaijan and protect a soviet proxy in armenia. A country that supports Russians invasion of Ukraine and Georgia.

 

[Ecderha]

New AZ military convoys seen today with the marking “F”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1700429611409047744

This scared dog wasted 3 years. Now all of a sudden he is ready to have urgent talks with Aliyev to reduce tensions. AZ should put him in the grave.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1700426466675036186

How many times this TALK happened?
Answer many times.
Result is the SAME. armenians use all ceasefire to regroup get more supplies and they START it again.

TALK at moment do not HAVE ANY Value.
Action is NEED IT NOW Right NOW

 

[Ecderha]

What is saddening the most, i don't see any voices from high-ups, or any declaration by state on the matter and towards Iran's attitude.

You will when things happened.
At moment it is only Talks and military build up.

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

People need to understand that NATO will never help Turkiye unless it helps their wider ambitions. Every time we looked to do anything americans always threatened us that NATO wont be with us.

In 1964 letter President Lyndon Johnson wrote to Ecevit basically threatening him not to intervene against he greeks in cyprus he said that should the soviet union attack us becuase of our intervention in cyprus that NATO wouldn't necessarily protect Turkiye from it. Basically saying your own your own.

Ecevit in his response basically pointed out that if the nato mechanism is so simple and weak that you pick and choose who and when to defend even when directly invaded by the soviets, then article 5 and the alliance holds no value to Turkiye. And others should be warry of placing their trust and faith in NATO.

NATO will not defend Turkiye. When Russians in recent memory were flying their jets into our airspace to threaten us, the Turks shot one down most NATO nations took their air defences out of Turkiye and blamed Turkiye for everything. The Russians were portrayed as honest brokers who wouldn't tell a lie and would never ever provoke or instigate trouble. Can you imagine the non stop troubler makers and liars were portrayed as the good guys by many NATO members.

And come on brown skinned Muslims, do you honestly believe that the white americans would fight a war to protect their most hated Muslim foe the Turks? wake up.

NATO is basically a carrot and stick tool used against Turkiye. Do anything in your interest and NATO is against you, do what we want and we will let you think NATO is with you.

Just look at the recent Azeri/Armo war americans and europeans were rushing to speak against azerbaijan and protect a soviet proxy in armenia. A country that supports Russians invasion of Ukraine and Georgia.

After all those examples that nato wouldn't help Türkiye we still have no Nukes, tell me how retarded the turkish leaders from today and back then have to be. While Countries with just 1 enemy have god knows how many, while we have more enemies than every fucking Country on this Planet.

 

[Ecderha]

If Turkey attacked Iran first and Iran responded to that , can Turkey invoke Article 5 ?

Forget about Article 5 when come to Turkiye.
usa and europe all ready said and DID it that they will not support Turkiye.
Example: Syria

 

[TheInsider]

Iran probably won't attack Turkiye or Azerbaijan directly. Attacking directly Turkiye will turn this into a NATO problem and Israel will do everything in its power to turn this war into a NATO war. Iran will probably use proxy forces. Iran will station them inside the Armenian territory.
Armenia is really in a tough spot. Cooperating with Iran will bring the wrath of Jews. Sure Armenians in the US barks loudly but it is Jews who run the show in the US. The US can't intervene it has no military reach. Russia is in no shape to intervene besides Pashinyan is anti-Russian to the bone. EU is a joke. Iran is the only choice that can save Armenia. Make no mistake AZ is far stronger than 2 years ago when it comes to hardware and technology. AZ is also in a better strategic position compared to the last round. AZ now controls critical heights around Khankendi and is in a good position to extend operations further into Armenian territory.

I expect an offensive to link Minkend to Biçenek to trap Armenian forces amassed around Goris and Syunik. Syunik is further south. Yellow road links north to south and it is the soft underbelly of Armenia. Take the little town that controls the road and the whole southern defences will collapse.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Iran probably won't attack Turkiye or Azerbaijan directly. Attacking directly Turkiye will turn this into a NATO problem and Israel will do everything in its power to turn this war into a NATO war. Iran will probably use proxy forces. Iran will station them inside the Armenian territory.
Armenia is really in a tough spot. Cooperating with Iran will bring the wrath of Jews. Sure Armenians in the US barks loudly but it is Jews who run the show in the US. The US can't intervene it has no military reach. Russia is in no shape to intervene besides Pashinyan is anti-Russian to the bone. EU is a joke. Iran is the only choice that can save Armenia. Make no mistake AZ is far stronger than 2 years ago when it comes to hardware and technology. AZ is also in a better strategic position compared to the last round. AZ now controls critical heights around Khankendi and is in a good position to extend operations further into Armenian territory.

I expect an offensive to link Minkend to Biçenek to trap Armenian forces amassed around Goris and Syunik. Syunik is further south. Yellow road links north to south and it is the soft underbelly of Armenia. Take the little town that controls the road and the whole southern defences will collapse.

View attachment 60940

We should ignore NATO or we should anticipate it sides with Iran. When Isis came about they showed Turkiye as its backer and Iran and Assad as good guys.

What's important for me is that the Turkish military has a plan/contingency should we need to deal with the persians. We should fully be ready to annex parts of Iran if required.

 

[AWP]

Pretty sure you need to be the victim and not the aggressor but even if you could, they probably wouldn't feel compelled to help the aggressor

Forget about Article 5 when come to Turkiye.
usa and europe all ready said and DID it that they will not support Turkiye.
Example: Syria

My question is in general regardless the Nato-Turkey relationship

how Article 5 really works ?

 

[Anastasius]

I'm going to repeat again - I don't expect a military operation. I don't want a military operation. I want this just to be skillful use of saber rattling to make Armenia scared enough to finally come to the negotiating table after they refused us.

People here who seem to be almost salivating at the idea of an open war do not seem to be aware of Aliyev's own problems with his corruption and dirty laundry being aired and how badly actually launching an offensive INTO Armenia is going to fuck us on the world stage. We are going to lose all legitimacy in regards to Karabakh virtually overnight and retroactively prove Armenians right.

Cleverly applied might makes for a stronger right. Might without brains makes for a quick ruin.

 

[Rooxbar]

I'm going to repeat again - I don't expect a military operation. I don't want a military operation. I want this just to be skillful use of saber rattling to make Armenia scared enough to finally come to the negotiating table after they refused us.

People here who seem to be almost salivating at the idea of an open war do not seem to be aware of Aliyev's own problems with his corruption and dirty laundry being aired and how badly actually launching an offensive INTO Armenia is going to fuck us on the world stage. We are going to lose all legitimacy in regards to Karabakh virtually overnight and retroactively prove Armenians right.

Cleverly applied might makes for a stronger right. Might without brains makes for a quick ruin.

Some sense after all. We don't need any part of Armenia. At least not now, god knows what later centuries will bring. The problem was that when the agreement was signed, the language about the Lachin corridor and the peacekeepers there was explicit and the implementation foreseen by the agreement immediate. If the same had been true for the Zangazur Corridor and immediately a combined force or something was stationed in Zangazur to ensure the implementation of the corridor, we would not have had this problem right now. I think it's saber rattling to scare Armenia into concessions about the corridor, but the problem in international relations is that if a show of force is not credible it will have no effect. And then a credible show of force, elicits a similar response, leading to heightened tensions and escalation and a ripe atmosphere for conflict brews.