Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions

Bozan

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I'm going to repeat again - I don't expect a military operation. I don't want a military operation. I want this just to be skillful use of saber rattling to make Armenia scared enough to finally come to the negotiating table after they refused us.

People here who seem to be almost salivating at the idea of an open war do not seem to be aware of Aliyev's own problems with his corruption and dirty laundry being aired and how badly actually launching an offensive INTO Armenia is going to fuck us on the world stage. We are going to lose all legitimacy in regards to Karabakh virtually overnight and retroactively prove Armenians right.

Cleverly applied might makes for a stronger right. Might without brains makes for a quick ruin.


Pretty much. EU media has non stop been talking about Aliyev corruption, how Aliyev needs the EU much more than EU nerds Aliyev's gas and Armenia has been very successful in international diplomacy.

It's also easy when Aliyev's government is so incompetent with messaging that they look like actual barbarians. One of the officials was threatening to shoot the EU delegation. So stupid.
 

Zapper

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West Invites Armenia To Join NATO


On September 6, Armenia announced its plans to host a joint military drill with the United States next week. The exercise, Eagle Partner 2023, is scheduled from September 11 to September 20 at Armenia’s Zar training center.

Following this development, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov conveyed to reporters that the news regarding Armenia’s intention to hold a joint military exercise with the United States is “alarming.”

He further said that Moscow will thoroughly analyze and monitor the situation.

“When it comes to the drills — of course, it causes concern, especially in the current situation. Therefore, we will deeply analyze this news and monitor the situation,” Peskov said.

Russia, Armenia to Create Joint Military Forces - Armenian National Committee of America
Contingent from the Armed Forces of Armenia on Red Square in 2015. Wikipedia
According to the Armenian defense ministry, the Eagle Partner 2023 exercises enhance cooperation and compatibility between Armenian and US military forces, particularly in international peacekeeping missions.

The Ministry pointed out that units preparing for international peacekeeping operations often engage in comparable joint exercises and training activities in partner nations as part of the preparations for peacekeeping missions.

A US military spokesperson said 85 American soldiers and 175 Armenian personnel are slated to participate in the upcoming military exercises.

The American contingent, which includes members from the Kansas National Guard, known for its two-decade-long training partnership with Armenia, would be equipped with rifles but would refrain from using heavy weaponry during the exercises.



Additionally, on September 4, Gunther Fehlinger, the European Committee for NATO Enlargement Chair, called on Armenia to consider becoming a part of the North Atlantic Alliance.

Subsequently, on the same day, Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan responded that Armenia had been actively collaborating with NATO across multiple formats and was ready to continue this process.

Nevertheless, the development poses a considerable concern for Russia, which is expected to raise eyebrows and potentially ignite significant irritation within the Russian government.

Escalating Friction Between Russia & Armenia

Russia and Armenia find themselves in a contentious situation regarding a 2,000-strong Russian peacekeeping contingent assigned to oversee the Lachin corridor.

This corridor serves as the vital link between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that witnessed a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, leading to a ceasefire brokered by Russia in 2020.

In recent months, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has become more critical of the Russian peacekeeping presence, particularly their alleged failure to ensure unrestricted access along a corridor connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh.

This criticism underscores the growing tensions between Armenia and Russia in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Recently, Pashinyan expressed dissatisfaction with Russia’s handling of the corridor, suggesting that Moscow might either lack the ability or the willingness to manage it effectively.

Serzh Sargsyan and Vladimir Putin visited the 102nd Russian military base dislocated in Gyumri - Press releases - Updates - The President of the Republic of Armenia
Vladimir Putin during his visit to the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia.
The Armenian government contends that Azerbaijan has blocked access to the corridor and imposed a blockade on Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in a humanitarian crisis in towns inhabited by Armenians.

Furthermore, in a significant shift in foreign policy, Pashinyan also said that Armenia’s longstanding reliance on Russia as its security guarantor had been a “strategic mistake.” This admission reflects a shift away from Armenia’s traditional alliance with Russia.

Adding to the complexities, Pashinyan’s wife visited Kyiv to participate in a meeting of first ladies and gentlemen and to provide humanitarian assistance.

Early this year, Armenia declined to host military exercises conducted by the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Russia maintains a permanent military base in Armenia, part of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.

On its part, the Kremlin has reiterated its commitment to fulfilling obligations towards Armenia, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasizing that Russia has no intentions of withdrawing its support.

“Russia is an integral part of this region,” he said. “Russia plays a consistent, vital role in stabilizing the situation in this region … and we will continue to play this role.”

The tensions between Baku and Yerevan have markedly intensified, with both sides leveling allegations of cross-border attacks against each other.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/after-ukraine-west-invites-armenia-to-join-nato-russia-concerned/
 

dBSPL

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There are many things I dislike and criticise about my country and its characteristics. There are things we do not do well, things we are not consistent. But there is only one thing that we are very consistent and that is what we do best. It would be in everybody's interest that nobody should test us on what we do best.

If Turkey attacked Iran first and Iran responded to that , can Turkey invoke Article 5 ?

Articles 2-3 of the Shusha Declaration and NATO Article 5 have the same spirit of alliance. In other words, if a country actually intervenes in Azerbaijan, Turkiye will consider this war declared against it. This agreement was ratified by the parliaments of each country.

Now, in a scenario where Iran attempts to intervene in Azerbaijan in favour of Armenia, the Turkish army will be legally involved in the war. The Turkish Armed Forces will be in Azerbaijan with all its elements. Look, I am not only talking about material logistics here, but there is a long-standing technical, doctrinal and organisational common infrastructure preparation between the two countries. The two armies are becoming integrated step by step and I hope everyone understands where this will lead.

The one who took the horse has (already) passed Üsküdar (a district of Istanbul). This is a Turkish proverb. So it's already too late. Everyone should read the new era accordingly. Neither Azerbaijan nor Turkiye is an enemy of Iran, we can do a lot on the basis of common interests. But regional dominance is a wet-dream, Iran does not have the capacity, and adventurous approaches and hamasic rhetoric will only worsen regional relations. The cost of a diplomatic rupture with Turkiye would make conditions in many extraterritorial regions, which are currently putting a deep strain on the Iranian budget, as difficult as possible.

But can Iran attack Turkiye directly? Let's leave aside for a moment the huge asymmetry in the conventional modern military inventory, and even if we look at it only from the geopolitical plane, it is not a wise move. Just in the honeymoon months of the Gulf-Turkish dialogue process. Just when the organisation of Turkic states is gradually preparing an EU-like structure roadmap. Just when Turkish common interests are becoming increasingly critical for Russia. What I mean here is that the wind in the region may become a situation that will fill the sails of the Turkish side again.

Also, just as NATO's weakness without Turkiye in the context of the Black Sea straits and the Eastern Mediterranean is being confirmed... If you are wondering whether NATO Article 5 will be activated, I think it is necessary to review the interests of the US-Israeli axis in this context. I'm not talking about whether these countries are reliable allies or neighbours, it's about interests...

Iran must be on our side. This issue, is about to be largely finalised with the liberation of Karabakh. Seeking adventure on the losing side could turn into a doomsday scenario that would awaken the nationalism that Iran fears like the devil. A state with Islam in its name must have different sensitivities, and it still has the opportunity to make amends for its foolish policies in the occupation of Karabakh and even more so in the recent war for the liberation of Karabakh. Life will certainly not get any easier when Iran makes new enemies on its whole borders except Armenia. This is our sincere advice to our Iranian brothers.
 
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Woland

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West Invites Armenia To Join NATO


On September 6, Armenia announced its plans to host a joint military drill with the United States next week. The exercise, Eagle Partner 2023, is scheduled from September 11 to September 20 at Armenia’s Zar training center.

Following this development, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov conveyed to reporters that the news regarding Armenia’s intention to hold a joint military exercise with the United States is “alarming.”

He further said that Moscow will thoroughly analyze and monitor the situation.

“When it comes to the drills — of course, it causes concern, especially in the current situation. Therefore, we will deeply analyze this news and monitor the situation,” Peskov said.

Russia, Armenia to Create Joint Military Forces - Armenian National Committee of America
Contingent from the Armed Forces of Armenia on Red Square in 2015. Wikipedia
According to the Armenian defense ministry, the Eagle Partner 2023 exercises enhance cooperation and compatibility between Armenian and US military forces, particularly in international peacekeeping missions.

The Ministry pointed out that units preparing for international peacekeeping operations often engage in comparable joint exercises and training activities in partner nations as part of the preparations for peacekeeping missions.

A US military spokesperson said 85 American soldiers and 175 Armenian personnel are slated to participate in the upcoming military exercises.

The American contingent, which includes members from the Kansas National Guard, known for its two-decade-long training partnership with Armenia, would be equipped with rifles but would refrain from using heavy weaponry during the exercises.



Additionally, on September 4, Gunther Fehlinger, the European Committee for NATO Enlargement Chair, called on Armenia to consider becoming a part of the North Atlantic Alliance.

Subsequently, on the same day, Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan responded that Armenia had been actively collaborating with NATO across multiple formats and was ready to continue this process.

Nevertheless, the development poses a considerable concern for Russia, which is expected to raise eyebrows and potentially ignite significant irritation within the Russian government.

Escalating Friction Between Russia & Armenia

Russia and Armenia find themselves in a contentious situation regarding a 2,000-strong Russian peacekeeping contingent assigned to oversee the Lachin corridor.

This corridor serves as the vital link between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that witnessed a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, leading to a ceasefire brokered by Russia in 2020.

In recent months, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has become more critical of the Russian peacekeeping presence, particularly their alleged failure to ensure unrestricted access along a corridor connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh.

This criticism underscores the growing tensions between Armenia and Russia in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Recently, Pashinyan expressed dissatisfaction with Russia’s handling of the corridor, suggesting that Moscow might either lack the ability or the willingness to manage it effectively.

Serzh Sargsyan and Vladimir Putin visited the 102nd Russian military base dislocated in Gyumri - Press releases - Updates - The President of the Republic of Armenia
Vladimir Putin during his visit to the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia.
The Armenian government contends that Azerbaijan has blocked access to the corridor and imposed a blockade on Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in a humanitarian crisis in towns inhabited by Armenians.

Furthermore, in a significant shift in foreign policy, Pashinyan also said that Armenia’s longstanding reliance on Russia as its security guarantor had been a “strategic mistake.” This admission reflects a shift away from Armenia’s traditional alliance with Russia.

Adding to the complexities, Pashinyan’s wife visited Kyiv to participate in a meeting of first ladies and gentlemen and to provide humanitarian assistance.

Early this year, Armenia declined to host military exercises conducted by the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Russia maintains a permanent military base in Armenia, part of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.

On its part, the Kremlin has reiterated its commitment to fulfilling obligations towards Armenia, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasizing that Russia has no intentions of withdrawing its support.

“Russia is an integral part of this region,” he said. “Russia plays a consistent, vital role in stabilizing the situation in this region … and we will continue to play this role.”

The tensions between Baku and Yerevan have markedly intensified, with both sides leveling allegations of cross-border attacks against each other.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/after-ukraine-west-invites-armenia-to-join-nato-russia-concerned/
This is an incredibly sensationalist and misleading title, selected to generate more views. Inviting a country to join NATO is a formal and extremely complicated act. Nobody has invited Armenia to join NATO.
 

Lool

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I'm going to repeat again - I don't expect a military operation. I don't want a military operation. I want this just to be skillful use of saber rattling to make Armenia scared enough to finally come to the negotiating table after they refused us.

People here who seem to be almost salivating at the idea of an open war do not seem to be aware of Aliyev's own problems with his corruption and dirty laundry being aired and how badly actually launching an offensive INTO Armenia is going to fuck us on the world stage. We are going to lose all legitimacy in regards to Karabakh virtually overnight and retroactively prove Armenians right.

Cleverly applied might makes for a stronger right. Might without brains makes for a quick ruin.
At this point, Aliyev's corruption is of minor importance within the grand scheme of things. Rn, Azerbaijan is facing a crisis over its own territorial integrity for nearly 30 years and rn is the best and maybe the only chance Azeris will get to restore their lands

Those who advocate "no war" under such conditions is exactly why Turks always get screwed over by the Western and Christian diaspora every single time.
Karabagh is officially an Azeri territory yet the West didnt take any action for nealy 30 years since the Armenians are Christians and thus they should be supported no matter how wrong they are

Sometimes, the only language some ppl understand is fqing FORCE.
Azerbaijan only got its territory back using force and per the peace agreement, Azerbaijan will somehow preserve the remaining Armenian majority lands within karabagh in return for a land corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakchivan.

Did that happen? No! Armenian keeps playing the same shitty christian/western political games to try and delay the land corridor while buying massive shipments of more advanced weaponry from Azerbaijan enemies like India and Iran and ofcourse not mentioning the massive international campaign to smear shit on Azerbaijan reputation. Certainly they didnt buy such weapons to display them in a bloody museum right?

if we went with your ingenious method, Armenia will retake Karabagh from Azerbaijan again 20 years into the future. Thus, the only way to preserve Azerbaijan territorial integrity is by eliminating Armenian lands from Karabagh and the forceful deporation of each Armenian either to Armenia or to the bottom of the sea.... period!

however, attacking actual Armenian lands is a big mistake that shouldnt be done. Azerbaijan should eliminate the Armenians in karabagh and that is it
 
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Ryder

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Until they drop delusions of Greater Armenia there will be peace in the region.

If not the Armenians will continue losing.

They can buy whatever they want from India, France, Iran, Russia and the USA. Still wont come close to completing their bullshit ancient destiny.

Armenia has land claims against Turkiye, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Now imagine if 3 of these gang up on Armenia LOL

Their pathetic delusions has made them enemy with 3 of their neighbours.

They blame everybody but they will never blame themselves for their situation.
 

dBSPL

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At this point, Aliyev's corruption is of minor importance within the grand scheme of things. Rn, Azerbaijan is facing a crisis over its own territorial integrity for nearly 30 years and rn is the best and maybe the only chance Azeris will get to restore their lands

Those who advocate "no war" under such conditions is exactly why Turks always get screwed over by the Western and Christian diaspora every single time.
Karabagh is officially an Azeri territory yet the West didnt take any action for nealy 30 years since the Armenians are Christians and thus they should be supported no matter how wrong they are

Sometimes, the only language some ppl understand is fqing FORCE.
Azerbaijan only got its territory back using force and per the peace agreement, Azerbaijan will somehow preserve the remaining Armenian majority lands within karabagh in return for a land corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakchivan.

Did that happen? No! Armenian keeps playing the same shitty christian/western political games to try and delay the land corridor while buying massive shipments of more advanced weaponry from Azerbaijan enemies like India and Armenia and ofcourse not mentioning the massive international campaign to smear shit on Azerbaijan reputation. Certainly they didnt buy such weapons to display them in a bloody museum right?

if we went with your ingenious method, Armenia will retake Karabagh from Azerbaijan again 20 years into the future. Thus, the only way to preserve Azerbaijan territorial integrity is by eliminating Armenian lands from Karabagh and the forceful deporation of each Armenian either to Armenia or to the bottom of the sea.... period!

however, attacking actual Armenian lands is a big mistake that shouldnt be done. Azerbaijan should eliminate the Armenians in karabagh and that is it
Your suggestion focused on the war may be debatable, but I absolutely agree with the general framework. Of course, our brothers and sisters in Azerbaijan know more than us, but we all know more or less about the issues related to the Aliyev family and the situation in the state administration. Yes, we deserve better leaders, there are things that bother us all in Azerbaijan and in our country, from stupid policy mistakes to wealth transfers, anyway, but this should not weaken our focus on the main issue. That focus should be on Azerbaijan's, the gateway to the Turkic world and Asia, the ancient Turkic state, that needs to regain its natural and legitimate borders, complete the strategic objectives that will carry this power and, as one of them, gain a physical trade corridor with Turkiye.

Azerbaijan is going through a very risky process. These events are not a joke, the slightest hesitation or stumbling can turn things upside down and cause us to throw back this historical opportunity. There is a saying in Turkish that one does not change horses while crossing a stream. Here the horse is Aliyev. Whether we like it or not. This is a twist of fate...
 

Agha Sher

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Two interesting events:

1. Erdogan will have a call with Pashinyan tomorrow. This is believe to be last chance for diplomacy.

2. some Armenian sources are reporting that MIT prevented a coup in Armenia. Pashinyan has fired many high ranking military people today.
 

Ecderha

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Two interesting events:

1. Erdogan will have a call with Pashinyan tomorrow. This is believe to be last chance for diplomacy.

2. some Armenian sources are reporting that MIT prevented a coup in Armenia. Pashinyan has fired many high ranking military people today.

Until 20 September is the day. If Armenia is not going back to agreement with Azerbaijan than WAR will start
 

Khagan1923

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If there is a war it is fully on Armenia and its fascists diaspora for pushing for it. Armenia signed three years ago a agreement which its has not uphold even 10% of. Azerbaijan has shown more patience than I expected from them. No one wants war but this will not be on Azerbaijan if it happens.

You don't get to be the aggressor, lose, sign an agreement and then not even hold up 10% of your end meanwhile your settlers are still occupying what is righfully and by law Azerbaijani land. Not only that they fake an "blockade" which in the end turns out to be nothing more then fascist Armenians declining supplies from the rightful owners of the land they are living on.

Pashinyan also seems to have a dual personality problem. One day he declares how his country will uphold the agreement it signed three years ago and the next he tries to prepare for a war. The miniscule purchases made by Armenia won't save it if it comes to war again. They already lost a huge chunk of their younger male population, the next war might annihilate any future Armenia had.

But then again how else will the "Armenians" in the US and France cry about a so-called "Genocide" and turn themselves to victims if there is no war, they themselves have started I might add. But then again Facts do not matter to the West as long as one side are the "pure innocent" Christians and the other side are the "evil straight from hell" Turks.

@Anastasius I don't think Aliyev right now has any appetite for war. But he will be forced to act if Armenia continues this act of violating the agreements it signed. Armenia for three years now has been pretty much showing Azerbaijan the middle finger in the hopes and delusions someone was gonna come around and save them. That isn't happenin even Russia is slowly getting fed up by their antics and as much as the West likes to act as if it supports Armenia when things get real their support will stay at words and nothing more just like last time.

IF it comes to another conflict I don't expect any moves over the border, such as invading. It will be more likely small scale and precise strikes to teach Armenia another lesson.
 
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