Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions

[Huelague]

All media hails the deal and announced 2 big winners, AZ and TR and 2 little winners, ARM and US. And 2 big losers, Iran and Russia.

Now, look who is going to sabotage this coming deal.

 

[Rooxbar]

U.S. bad, whoever against them good (regardless of the region, interests, power projection, vicinity) mentality will be the end of us. Russia is the overwhelming power in the south Caucasus. Having measly American footprint there is a tiny step in the right direction of balancing powers. Azerbaijan however would be ill-advised to harm Russian interests and entangle themselves too much in Russia-NATO conflict. I think the recent rhetoric by them is uncharacteristically reckless in the face of a rabid bear. When you got a rabid bear at your door, you have every right to go out of your house and do whatever you want, but in that situation, rights are not the only factors determining behavior. You should create leverage by trying to balance their power with other powers but that's never a long-term powerful strategy as the only peer competitor is half a world away.

 

[Azeri441]

why would USA not only want to arm the PKK but endeavour to build them a state from 4 sovereign nations? Not least one of those nations being a NATO member and big purchaser of US weapons. Is Turkiye not a more beneficial partner to the USA then PKK rats? America also has investments in Turkiye while all of this takes place.



Yes but the difference between Armenia and Azerbaijan got wider in the military sphere. While the difference between Turkiye and Russia was shrinking. Turkish military capacity every couple of years takes a leap, Russia looks like their rotting away. The point im making is that today Turkiye and Azerbaijan can contend to a degree with Russia. 10 years from now once Turkish fighter jets are up in the air Russia wouldnt be an issue at all in the immediate region. The US is not something Turkiye can counter.



Once the US has their foot in the door, if they so decide they will do as they please. Remember Azerbajian was portrayed as the aggressor in the recent war by the collective west, not just the USA. Tomorrow if they need troops in the region they will get Armenia to instigate troubles, you will retaliate and they will claim you are the aggressor and say they need to send troops to protect Armenia.



Again Turkiye and Azerbaijan could navigate Russia in the region. If things with the USA turn sour and the americans have a big big history of betraying their allies, Turkiye and Azerbaijan will be able to do nothing about it.

The real issue for me is that you have zero recourse should things turn sour. Turkiye was a big ally for the USA, its not stopped them working to balkanise us.

so according to your logic its better to have large Russian military presence that has been funding and directly supplying Armenia, than an independent US company that will be responsible for infrastructure projects, because Turkey can hypothetically counter Russian influence, even though it hasn't really managed that in the past in the Caucasus because US might hypothetically supply Armenia even though there is no indication or reason for that?

idk man some grasping going on there.

 

[Azeri441]

U.S. bad, whoever against them good (regardless of the region, interests, power projection, vicinity) mentality will be the end of us. Russia is the overwhelming power in the south Caucasus. Having measly American footprint there is a tiny step in the right direction of balancing powers. Azerbaijan however would be ill-advised to harm Russian interests and entangle themselves too much in Russia-NATO conflict. I think the recent rhetoric by them is uncharacteristically reckless in the face of a rabid bear. When you got a rabid bear at your door, you have every right to go out of your house and do whatever you want, but in that situation, rights are not the only factors determining behavior. You should create leverage by trying to balance their power with other powers but that's never a long-term powerful strategy as the only peer competitor is half a world away.

Azerbaijan was managing both West and Russian relations, however Russia decided to shoot down our civilian aircraft and not even admit their mistake

at some point, you gotta answer back