Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions

[Huelague]

All media hails the deal and announced 2 big winners, AZ and TR and 2 little winners, ARM and US. And 2 big losers, Iran and Russia.

Now, look who is going to sabotage this coming deal.

 

[Rooxbar]

U.S. bad, whoever against them good (regardless of the region, interests, power projection, vicinity) mentality will be the end of us. Russia is the overwhelming power in the south Caucasus. Having measly American footprint there is a tiny step in the right direction of balancing powers. Azerbaijan however would be ill-advised to harm Russian interests and entangle themselves too much in Russia-NATO conflict. I think the recent rhetoric by them is uncharacteristically reckless in the face of a rabid bear. When you got a rabid bear at your door, you have every right to go out of your house and do whatever you want, but in that situation, rights are not the only factors determining behavior. You should create leverage by trying to balance their power with other powers but that's never a long-term powerful strategy as the only peer competitor is half a world away.

 

[Azeri441]

why would USA not only want to arm the PKK but endeavour to build them a state from 4 sovereign nations? Not least one of those nations being a NATO member and big purchaser of US weapons. Is Turkiye not a more beneficial partner to the USA then PKK rats? America also has investments in Turkiye while all of this takes place.



Yes but the difference between Armenia and Azerbaijan got wider in the military sphere. While the difference between Turkiye and Russia was shrinking. Turkish military capacity every couple of years takes a leap, Russia looks like their rotting away. The point im making is that today Turkiye and Azerbaijan can contend to a degree with Russia. 10 years from now once Turkish fighter jets are up in the air Russia wouldnt be an issue at all in the immediate region. The US is not something Turkiye can counter.



Once the US has their foot in the door, if they so decide they will do as they please. Remember Azerbajian was portrayed as the aggressor in the recent war by the collective west, not just the USA. Tomorrow if they need troops in the region they will get Armenia to instigate troubles, you will retaliate and they will claim you are the aggressor and say they need to send troops to protect Armenia.



Again Turkiye and Azerbaijan could navigate Russia in the region. If things with the USA turn sour and the americans have a big big history of betraying their allies, Turkiye and Azerbaijan will be able to do nothing about it.

The real issue for me is that you have zero recourse should things turn sour. Turkiye was a big ally for the USA, its not stopped them working to balkanise us.

so according to your logic its better to have large Russian military presence that has been funding and directly supplying Armenia, than an independent US company that will be responsible for infrastructure projects, because Turkey can hypothetically counter Russian influence, even though it hasn't really managed that in the past in the Caucasus because US might hypothetically supply Armenia even though there is no indication or reason for that?

idk man some grasping going on there.

 

[Azeri441]

U.S. bad, whoever against them good (regardless of the region, interests, power projection, vicinity) mentality will be the end of us. Russia is the overwhelming power in the south Caucasus. Having measly American footprint there is a tiny step in the right direction of balancing powers. Azerbaijan however would be ill-advised to harm Russian interests and entangle themselves too much in Russia-NATO conflict. I think the recent rhetoric by them is uncharacteristically reckless in the face of a rabid bear. When you got a rabid bear at your door, you have every right to go out of your house and do whatever you want, but in that situation, rights are not the only factors determining behavior. You should create leverage by trying to balance their power with other powers but that's never a long-term powerful strategy as the only peer competitor is half a world away.

Azerbaijan was managing both West and Russian relations, however Russia decided to shoot down our civilian aircraft and not even admit their mistake

at some point, you gotta answer back

 

[Saithan]

so according to your logic its better to have large Russian military presence that has been funding and directly supplying Armenia, than an independent US company that will be responsible for infrastructure projects, because Turkey can hypothetically counter Russian influence, even though it hasn't really managed that in the past in the Caucasus because US might hypothetically supply Armenia even though there is no indication or reason for that?

idk man some grasping going on there.

Can you provide evidence of this company that will run the Zengesurbcorridor ?

Or some solid information on howbit's going to be run ?

 

[Barry]

so according to your logic its better to have large Russian military presence that has been funding and directly supplying Armenia, than an independent US company that will be responsible for infrastructure projects, because Turkey can hypothetically counter Russian influence, even though it hasn't really managed that in the past in the Caucasus because US might hypothetically supply Armenia even though there is no indication or reason for that?

idk man some grasping going on there.

I mean Armenia had all of that and still got their back door smashed in. You're putting too much faith in this idea of a private American company running the corridor being just that.

 

[GoatsMilk]

I mean Armenia had all of that and still got their back door smashed in. You're putting too much faith in this idea of a private American company running the corridor being just that.

Its worth paying attention how they come together in Syria, Both the US and Russia worked together against Turkiye. The same thing will happen Armenia. If Russia couldn't keep the USA out of the region thanks really to Turkish support of Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan military ability, all that will happen moving forward is that both will find mutual interest in minimising "Turkic" influence.

Russia and the USA may compete in the region against each other, but when it comes to Turkiye they will work together against us.

In syria when we moved on al bab, both the US and Russia military moved in unison against Turkiye. When Turkiye finally moved on eastern syria, the USA made sure to hand over their positions to Russia.

Of the two nations in sryia protecting the PKK, Russia was the only one Turkiye was really able to apply leverage or pressure on. US is entrenched with the PKK in both Syria and Iraq, soon they may even dismantle Iran, now their in Armenia not to mention the extra military bases they put in greece. So in essence your being surrounded by the most powerful nation on earth whose openly trying to balkanise your nation. USA GOOD.

As for Syria their was "no apply leverage" or "balancing" powers in the context of the USA and Russia. Neither one of them got in the way of each other in respect to Turkiye, instead they worked together. Even joining in unison to push that Turkiye was behind Isis to stop us from intervening in Syria. In fact their propaganda was the same, genocide of kurds and supporting islamic terrorism in the region.

no one is saying Turkiye shouldnt be in NATO, or shouldn't have many relations with the USA. But when their openly trying to balkanise you, you should be doing everything to keep them away from your immediate region, not inviting them in. Especially into a nation that hates you to your core.

 

[Azeri441]

I mean Armenia had all of that and still got their back door smashed in. You're putting too much faith in this idea of a private American company running the corridor being just that.

and what do you think US is gonna start providing to Armenia that will somehow change the balance of power? you think US gonna ship 100 F-35s to Armenia ?

 

[GoatsMilk]

and what do you think US is gonna start providing to Armenia that will somehow change the balance of power? you think US gonna ship 100 F-35s to Armenia ?

YPG doesn't have any fighter jets, yet a thousand US troops in the YPG occupied regions is enough to keep Turkiye out. Its not about armenia its about the USA.

the point im making is that russia was diminishing and Turkish military power was growing, this meant that the trajectory of the region was moving to the advantage of Turkiye and Azerbaijan. If the USA ends up playing the same games in Armenia that they played against Turkiye in syria and iraq, then its bad bad news.

Your all hoping for good things, when in reality as Turks we've only seen bad things regionally from the USA in the last few decades.

anyway its done now, next 5 to 10 years will tell us all the reality. And if it turns out to be nightmare just like it turned into a nightmare when Turkiye ended up supporting the US war against Assad, i just hope we learn from it and then don't continue to make the same mistakes moving forward.

I would hate to think 10 years from now this turns into another disaster and then a new situation arises and were living groundhog day.

Just to remind everyone, many people were saying not to join the american war against Assad because it would be used to create their kurdistan and his downfall will be used to help isreal. Well well well.

 

[Barry]

and what do you think US is gonna start providing to Armenia that will somehow change the balance of power? you think US gonna ship 100 F-35s to Armenia ?

K

 

[Huelague]

First respond from Russia?

Romania reportedly suspects Russian sabotage in crude oil contamination bound for OMV Petrom refinery

Romanian authorities are reportedly investigating a potential case of Russian sabotage involving the deliberate contamination of Azerbaijani crude oil intended for OMV Petrom’s Petrobrazi refinery, G4media.ro reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. The oil shipment, transported via...

www.romania-insider.com

 

[Century]

You are “good informed” for a South Korean, who live in Canada.

You got it backwards, I'm Canadian living in South Korea at-present. It says country of origin vs country of residence Easy to follow.

I can understand your pessimism and skepticism, but best example is German holocaust and relation to Jews. And there are many examples sideways through the history of mankind, where former “enemies”, were partners.

Looking always to the past will not help you to form the future. “Stack on the past or live for the future”. I think that current Armenian habitant wants to have a future for themselves and the coming children. The new corridor can help to realize these future.

Of course, there are some people who will always live in the past, and you can not help these people. But in my opinion, most Armenian people will accept that fact, that their “enemies” are the only logical choice, for a bright future. Don’t trust to much in surveys, you don’t know who made with which intention.

I’m not ‘living in the past,’ I’m pointing out that politics doesn’t work like a motivational poster. Comparing 1915 as well as Karabakh to post-WWII Germany is a stretch the size of the Caucasus itself. This is because Germany had a regime change, massive reparations they paid as a result, international oversight, and decades of rebuilding before relations normalized. They teach what they did in the 30's and 40s in their schools. I'm not aware of Turkey teaching what It did in 1915 as part of its curriculum, but maybe you can correct me on that. My point, Turkey hasn’t exactly gone through that arc as Germany.

Also, I’m not just pulling this from Wikipedia. I’ve been to Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Armenia myself, and sure while that doesn’t make me an expert, it does mean I’ve seen firsthand that the wounds aren’t some abstract talking point. You don’t just pave a ‘future corridor’ over that level of resentment and expect smooth traffic. People want a better future however ignoring public anger, political climate, and recent polls because they don’t fit the narrative is wishful thinking. The fact you’re telling me not to 'trust surveys' while giving me armchair sociology is bold, and I say that with respect.

 

[Turan]

Aliyev appears to have made a political choice to maintain his regime against the backdrop of deteriorating relations with Russia. We'll see what consequences this will have for Azerbaijan and Turkey (I am not saying this is going to be bad or good). Ideally, the Zangezur corridor would have been provided by Turkey or Azerbaijan. However, since Zangezur is Armenian territory, we know this is impossible. If there were a Zangezur corridor, it would have been controlled by either Russia or the United States. Therefore, I'm not entirely positive about this "Zangezur corridor" thing from beginning . In fact, it would have been even better for us if Armenia had controlled it by himself other than giving third party.