Breaking News China-US War?

[Iskander]

People knew 5,000 years ago that you can't miss the moment when a neighboring country is dangerously growing stronger and it is necessary to stop its uncontrolled development in time. There are many such examples in history. As for China, the United States has obviously already missed the opportune moment when they still had the opportunity to eliminate the "danger" without resorting to military action.
Now it's too late, China has become so strong that, if we exclude a nuclear war, it is unknown how everything will end on the battlefield.
The star of America and the West as a whole is inexorably moving towards the horizon. It is already obvious that the West's dominance in the world is coming to an end.
This is a historical process that cannot be stopped.

In recent years, all Western-controlled media have taken on the task of denigrating China by any means possible. They have begun the process of preparing public opinion throughout the world for the dehumanization of China and a new war. These "independent" media, completely controlled by Western governments, constantly create in the minds of people such an opinion about the Chinese as if several centuries ago it was not Great Britain that occupied Chinese lands, but on the contrary, China occupied England. These completely shameless media create in the public a completely false impression that it was not armed Portuguese who came to kill the Chinese, but on the contrary, allegedly these "countless yellow barbarians" occupied poor Portugal. The French have the impression that it was not the French who exterminated millions of people in Indochina, but on the contrary, the bloodthirsty Chinese who came to innocent Europe and occupied it. And the "innocent as babies" Dutch?! And the Americans?!
Did China occupy Iraq, killing hundreds of thousands of completely innocent people there? And Afghanistan?! Libya??? Syria?! Algeria?! And dozens of other countries?!
From the 90s of the last century to this day, "compassionate" Christians have killed 14 million people, mostly Muslims, in the Middle East alone.
But it turns out that China is guilty of all 7 sins China!

 

[Hannibal]

People knew 5,000 years ago that you can't miss the moment when a neighboring country is dangerously growing stronger and it is necessary to stop its uncontrolled development in time. There are many such examples in history. As for China, the United States has obviously already missed the opportune moment when they still had the opportunity to eliminate the "danger" without resorting to military action.
Now it's too late, China has become so strong that, if we exclude a nuclear war, it is unknown how everything will end on the battlefield.
The star of America and the West as a whole is inexorably moving towards the horizon. It is already obvious that the West's dominance in the world is coming to an end.
This is a historical process that cannot be stopped.

In recent years, all Western-controlled media have taken on the task of denigrating China by any means possible. They have begun the process of preparing public opinion throughout the world for the dehumanization of China and a new war. These "independent" media, completely controlled by Western governments, constantly create in the minds of people such an opinion about the Chinese as if several centuries ago it was not Great Britain that occupied Chinese lands, but on the contrary, China occupied England. These completely shameless media create in the public a completely false impression that it was not armed Portuguese who came to kill the Chinese, but on the contrary, allegedly these "countless yellow barbarians" occupied poor Portugal. The French have the impression that it was not the French who exterminated millions of people in Indochina, but on the contrary, the bloodthirsty Chinese who came to innocent Europe and occupied it. And the "innocent as babies" Dutch?! And the Americans?!
Did China occupy Iraq, killing hundreds of thousands of completely innocent people there? And Afghanistan?! Libya??? Syria?! Algeria?! And dozens of other countries?!
From the 90s of the last century to this day, "compassionate" Christians have killed 14 million people, mostly Muslims, in the Middle East alone.
But it turns out that China is guilty of all 7 sins China!

I bet good money it will happen before 2035. I also bet China will win.

The barges with extendable ramps will be a game-changer.
Before they could accurately prepare because all landing sites were well-known by Taiwan. Now China will keep them guessing.

A good indicator will be when China starts offloading US Debt (bonds) and starts buying gold in massive quantities (which they are doing now).

 

[Iskander]

I bet good money it will happen before 2035. I also bet China will win.

The barges with extendable ramps will be a game-changer.
Before they could accurately prepare because all landing sites were well-known by Taiwan. Now China will keep them guessing.

A good indicator will be when China starts offloading US Debt (bonds) and starts buying gold in massive quantities (which they are doing now).

View attachment 73822

A quarter of a century ago, they said that by 2020-2025, China would overtake America first in economic indicators, and then in military ones. At that time, it seemed completely unbelievable. After all, China was barely climbing out of poverty at that time.
The prediction turned out to be simply prophetic.
In my opinion, as has often happened in history, America will simply have to come to terms with reality. After all, 80 years ago, when the USSR did not yet have nuclear weapons, the US could have easily bombed it, and, in the words of Bush Jr., returned the Russians, and us at the same time, to the Stone Age. They even had a war plan. According to it, in addition to other cities, Baku was to be “awarded” with 3 nuclear bombs. But they did not do this. A different strategy of struggle was chosen. It seems to me that this is the path that will be chosen. And so your money will remain in your pocket

 

[Hannibal]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1900206044682637798

 

[Hannibal]

New visuals of what China’s barges could look like during an invasion of Taiwan.
Source: Chinese social media

 

[Nurhak40]

This way you could invade with 6 billion soldiers per secone

 

[Relic]

I know that China would be bringing vast amounts of resources and manpower to the equation, supported by significant long range fires, but man would an invasion of Taiwan be incredibly bloody. Taiwan's military equipment has aged quite a bit and the process of replacing it with adequate quantity of new age tech is a slow, arduous process. But their ability to call a million + soldiers to arms and concentrate them, would be difficult for any amphibious landing to overcome.

If coalition air and naval power helped out, holy crap would the Chinese be forced to endure a near apocalyptic number of casualties.

 

[contricusc]

China’s only way to succesfully invade Taiwan is if the Taiwanese surrender and refuse to fight (like Georgia surrendered when invaded by Russia).

If the Taiwanese decide to fight, there is no way China can occupy Taiwan. The geography combined with the precision of modern weapons make it impossible to do a successful landing and to sustain your beachhead on a fortress island like Taiwan. Logistics would be unsustainable and the few troops that would manage to land (most would just die at sea) would be quickly starved of ammunition and supplies and would have to surrender.

 

[Nilgiri]

I know that China would be bringing vast amounts of resources and manpower to the equation, supported by significant long range fires, but man would an invasion of Taiwan be incredibly bloody. Taiwan's military equipment has aged quite a bit and the process of replacing it with adequate quantity of new age tech is a slow, arduous process. But their ability to call a million + soldiers to arms and concentrate them, would be difficult for any amphibious landing to overcome.

If coalition air and naval power helped out, holy crap would the Chinese be forced to endure a near apocalyptic number of casualties.

Given drones and cruise missiles these days relative to such transport ship becoming high value in a crossing, China would have to arrange and concentrate an inordinate amount of AAD (onshore and on warships with the flotilla) as well.

There are next generation sea mines and UUVs as well that Taiwan and her allies can invest in optimally compared to the force levels China requires.

I find a blockade or partial blockade by the PLAN much more likelier than a full scale invasion.

 

[TR_123456]

Given drones and cruise missiles these days relative to such transport ship becoming high value in a crossing, China would have to arrange and concentrate an inordinate amount of AAD (onshore and on warships with the flotilla) as well.

There are next generation sea mines and UUVs as well that Taiwan and her allies can invest in optimally compared to the force levels China requires.

I find a blockade or partial blockade by the PLAN much more likelier than a full scale invasion.

China is not stupid,it sees what happens in Ukraine.
China would be declared a pariah state,its economy would be devastated.
China cant afford that.
I think China will seek to do it with politics,use its pawns in Taiwans political and military establishments to conquer it from the inside(Erdogan and to some extent Trump).
I dont see a war happening between the two.

 

[Nilgiri]

China is not stupid,it sees what happens in Ukraine.
China would be declared a pariah state,its economy would be devastated.
China cant afford that.
I think China will seek to do it with politics,use its pawns in Taiwans political and military establishments to conquer it from the inside(Erdogan and to some extent Trump).
I dont see a war happening between the two.

Yah I have good Taiwanese friend and he keeps me up to date on the political subterfuge....past what happens with direct military espionage/compromise and 5th columning in various aspects of Taiwanese society already. Taiwan was basically reliant on political ramp of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao continuing and Hong Kong serving as canary in coal mine in slower paced way. Instead things accelerated in different way with Xi...and HK folded and is done and dusted for most part. I can go on about this alone for many hours, its a long story.

He mentioned to me some time back that all kind of connections to PRC were found (to add to known issue in "old grandaddy" KMT for a while now) in the new 3rd political party in last years presidential election that DPP won more narrowly as a result.

i.e DPP is basically the only ideologically commited party to defacto sovereignty status quo. The others are sell outs and can be pressured more to bend to PRC and PRC has invested in this and it will continue.

This is all part of why we kind of agreed that a partial blockade or serious blockade would be the likeliest "test" PRC sets before 2030 (or in 2030-2035) if it elects to depending on how the coercion/subversion results with these two political parties go in next few years. If its not needed, they dont do it.....but if DPP is resilient enough they might go ahead at some point to see what others (namely US and Japan) resolve are on the matter, without having to commit to a full on war that kills the golden goose so to speak like you describe and opens large amounts of risk of escalation, right then or later.

This is all part of reason Taiwan is through TSMC making a 100 billion accelerated effort of investment into US (like way faster than what was done in CHIPS act). Basically protection money and you see Trump admin addressing the backlog of weapons flow that Biden admin stalled.

This year and next will be very interesting for sure to observe.

 

[Anastasius]

I'm going to dissent a bit from the consensus and argue that a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan would actually be easier than, say, Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Taiwan's status as a relatively small island that's very close to the Chinese coast makes them an incredibly vulnerable target regardless of how well-prepared they are.