TR Economy & Updates

Saithan

Experienced member
Denmark Correspondent
Messages
8,591
Reactions
35 19,659
Nation of residence
Denmark
Nation of origin
Turkey

This is huge. I wonder if we have any Turkish firm that does something similar, because there is insane amount of money in this.
 

Zafer

Experienced member
Messages
4,683
Reactions
7 7,389
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey

Pay off a little debt. Borrow huge amount money.
2021 Program

According to the plan, the Treasury will repay 449 billion Turkish liras ($53.6 billion) domestic and 98.2 billion ($11.7 billion) Turkish liras external debt in the year, with 121.9 billion ($14.56 billion) and 40.3 billion Turkish liras ($4.8 billion) interest payments, respectively.

It also expected to borrow 541 billion Turkish liras ($64.6 billion) from domestic and 77.6 billion Turkish liras ($9.27 billion) from external markets next year.

What part of that report shows huge borrowing please explain.
 

Saithan

Experienced member
Denmark Correspondent
Messages
8,591
Reactions
35 19,659
Nation of residence
Denmark
Nation of origin
Turkey
2021 Program

According to the plan, the Treasury will repay 449 billion Turkish liras ($53.6 billion) domestic and 98.2 billion ($11.7 billion) Turkish liras external debt in the year, with 121.9 billion ($14.56 billion) and 40.3 billion Turkish liras ($4.8 billion) interest payments, respectively.

It also expected to borrow 541 billion Turkish liras ($64.6 billion) from domestic and 77.6 billion Turkish liras ($9.27 billion) from external markets next year.

What part of that report shows huge borrowing please explain.

Well, you project to pay 65 and 19 of it is interest. So in reality to pay off on 46.

Then you plan on borrowing 74. The difference is 28 more in extra debt.
 

Zafer

Experienced member
Messages
4,683
Reactions
7 7,389
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
Well, you project to pay 65 and 19 of it is interest. So in reality to pay off on 46.

Then you plan on borrowing 74. The difference is 28 more in extra debt.
The interest is accumulated over the years and not of the recent transactions. The debt ratio of Turkey is among the lowest in the developed world (meaning a country that can make its necessities to a high degree of 70+). The debt total is also decreasing other than the ratio. Government knows borrowing is not a recipe for long term success and the lenders will not lend more as the interest paid is not as good as it was before and there is unmeasurable risk. Turkey will be better off going forward considering the level of fine tuning in the government policies.
 

Nilgiri

Experienced member
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Messages
9,738
Reactions
118 19,732
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
The interest is accumulated over the years and not of the recent transactions. The debt ratio of Turkey is among the lowest in the developed world (meaning a country that can make its necessities to a high degree of 70+). The debt total is also decreasing other than the ratio. Government knows borrowing is not a recipe for long term success and the lenders will not lend more as the interest paid is not as good as it was before and there is unmeasurable risk. Turkey will be better off going forward considering the level of fine tuning in the government policies.

You are correct debt is being held at relatively the same level (thus ratio drop given GDP growth):


Barring the spike at 2016/17 which saw increase from 400 billion level of the period 2013-2016 to about 450 billion which is the level 2017 - date roughly.

However the main reason for this curtailing is driven more by basic reality of the credit rating...than any govt foresight on the issue (given the earlier ramping when the credit rating was better):


All the ratings of the major agencies currently have Turkey in speculative region, below investment grade that it had some years back (mid 2016 is when the big drop happened or started to happen).

This directly influences the (level and cost) of loan buffet on offer to Turkey now compared to before.

With this worse credit rating, the yield curve is also inverted:


This is a very concerning situation with this sub-optimal credit rating especially, it means Turkey is willing to give more return to shorter term loan than longer term one....

The sheer level (15% return) is also very high (even much poorer developing countries have this as 5%-10% lot of the time) suggesting a big foreign liquidity crunch Turkey govt has....that it is really trying to shore up this way.

These two factors really need deep reform, not kicking the can more.

@Sinan @Deliorman
 

Saithan

Experienced member
Denmark Correspondent
Messages
8,591
Reactions
35 19,659
Nation of residence
Denmark
Nation of origin
Turkey
You are correct debt is being held at relatively the same level (thus ratio drop given GDP growth):


Barring the spike at 2016/17 which saw increase from 400 billion level of the period 2013-2016 to about 450 billion which is the level 2017 - date roughly.

However the main reason for this curtailing is driven more by basic reality of the credit rating...than any govt foresight on the issue (given the earlier ramping when the credit rating was better):


All the ratings of the major agencies currently have Turkey in speculative region, below investment grade that it had some years back (mid 2016 is when the big drop happened or started to happen).

This directly influences the (level and cost) of loan buffet on offer to Turkey now compared to before.

With this worse credit rating, the yield curve is also inverted:


This is a very concerning situation with this sub-optimal credit rating especially, it means Turkey is willing to give more return to shorter term loan than longer term one....

The sheer level (15% return) is also very high (even much poorer developing countries have this as 5%-10% lot of the time) suggesting a big foreign liquidity crunch Turkey govt has....that it is really trying to shore up this way.

These two factors really need deep reform, not kicking the can more.

@Sinan @Deliorman
Government has spent up the cash in the savings deposit, and started printing money without shoring up necessary capital to back it up. resulting in further deteriorizing the turkish lira. So the government started prioritizing short term loans, but the maturity of these loans are very short less than 12 months.

As you pointed out the interest rate is high and this isn't sustainable. But no one but the people can hold the government accountable and that is in 2023, by election.
 

Nilgiri

Experienced member
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Messages
9,738
Reactions
118 19,732
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
Government has spent up the cash in the savings deposit, and started printing money without shoring up necessary capital to back it up. resulting in further deteriorizing the turkish lira. So the government started prioritizing short term loans, but the maturity of these loans are very short less than 12 months.

As you pointed out the interest rate is high and this isn't sustainable. But no one but the people can hold the government accountable and that is in 2023, by election.

Essentially the private sector and private consumers are being squeezed w.r.t their borrowing and credit needs....to try finance the commitments for the borrowing Turkey govt made.

Private sector and private consumers run their affairs far more efficiently and optimally given there are so many of them.....whereas just one govt (essentially a mighty oligarch with no competition in whichever economic sectors it chooses to enter or intervene in).

Excessive big govt debt is never good strategy in mid and long term.

It must always be kept to bare minimum (i.e crucial public infra + welfare programs with good transparency/accountability) when it goes past things like national defence and provision of admin + courts + rule of law (i.e the very basics).

That is where reforms must be oriented towards. I find it quite strange that AKP is considered right-wing with this kind of loan-based spending. It is short term populist maybe....and traditionally more a left-wing thing to do.

If there is another administration that takes over in 2023 (which seems really long time away if you ask me if no reforms are taken by this admin)....they will have their work cut out for them for sure. They will need to reform hard and deep, and not worry about staying in power 2nd term.... for the good of the country.
 

Saithan

Experienced member
Denmark Correspondent
Messages
8,591
Reactions
35 19,659
Nation of residence
Denmark
Nation of origin
Turkey
Essentially the private sector and private consumers are being squeezed w.r.t their borrowing and credit needs....to try finance the commitments for the borrowing Turkey govt made.

Private sector and private consumers run their affairs far more efficiently and optimally given there are so many of them.....whereas just one govt (essentially a mighty oligarch with no competition in whichever economic sectors it chooses to enter or intervene in).

Excessive big govt debt is never good strategy in mid and long term.

It must always be kept to bare minimum (i.e crucial public infra + welfare programs with good transparency/accountability) when it goes past things like national defence and provision of admin + courts + rule of law (i.e the very basics).

That is where reforms must be oriented towards. I find it quite strange that AKP is considered right-wing with this kind of loan-based spending. It is short term populist maybe....and traditionally more a left-wing thing to do.

If there is another administration that takes over in 2023 (which seems really long time away if you ask me if no reforms are taken by this admin)....they will have their work cut out for them for sure. They will need to reform hard and deep, and not worry about staying in power 2nd term.... for the good of the country.
That is exactly what Ali Babacan said. The center pillar has been destroyed. This meaning any government that comes afterwards will need to implement harsh budget and restrictions on national level..

IMO they should raise the tax on AKP majority provinces exponentially and tell them that since AKP was their favorite they shouldn't mind paying extra to save the country. (I'm just kidding).

But I would make sure all AKP officials and such had all their properties seized and what not, and indebted with at least 10 b USD to the state. This should ensure that they're drowning in debt to never be able to set foot in government.

Meh if I'm wrong AKP ppl can trashtalk me all they want, since the alternate is much worse.
 

Zafer

Experienced member
Messages
4,683
Reactions
7 7,389
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
That is exactly what Ali Babacan said. The center pillar has been destroyed. This meaning any government that comes afterwards will need to implement harsh budget and restrictions on national level..

IMO they should raise the tax on AKP majority provinces exponentially and tell them that since AKP was their favorite they shouldn't mind paying extra to save the country. (I'm just kidding).

But I would make sure all AKP officials and such had all their properties seized and what not, and indebted with at least 10 b USD to the state. This should ensure that they're drowning in debt to never be able to set foot in government.

Meh if I'm wrong AKP ppl can trashtalk me all they want, since the alternate is much worse.
We were supposed to have defaulted long time ago if you believe in the opposition. :LOL:
 
Last edited:

Zafer

Experienced member
Messages
4,683
Reactions
7 7,389
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
Government debt by countries. Keep scrolling down to find Turkey. :LOL:

 

Ryder

Experienced member
Messages
10,836
Reactions
6 18,665
Nation of residence
Australia
Nation of origin
Turkey
How old are you. Did you experience those times since you’re saying all that ? What do you know of the economic difficulties Turkey went through ?

I have not, but neo liberalism has been a disaster especially selling and allowing other countries especially corporations to exploit Turkey.
 

Nilgiri

Experienced member
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Messages
9,738
Reactions
118 19,732
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
Regd. "tradingeconomics" numbers:

Total external debt for Turkey = 440 billion USD

Nominal GDP = 742 billion USD

440/742 = 59%

Very different to 33%, last time it was 33% for Turkey was around 2010.

Also using 59%, if you think "hey look at countries at 100%+ or 200%"...please understand what their credit ratings are, what their market caps look like and what their total equity/wealth (and valued productive capacity) they have to leverage on is like.

EDIT: trading economics talking about govt debt, but I am talking about total external debt....which is of the higher importance w.r.t Lira movement and is being propelled by govt policy of loans.
 
Last edited:

Bogeyman 

Experienced member
Professional
Messages
9,192
Reactions
67 31,253
Website
twitter.com
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
you can not cover the Turk Telekom mess with acquisition of Turkcell's shares.
The primary internet and communication company was privatized carelessly, the new owners has looted the financial stocks, left company in debt and sold its goods, didn't improve infrastructure as promise
This must be a huge joke. Is not it? :LOL:
What do you mean they didn't invest?
Well, does Türk Telekom know about your writings?


1.png

2.png

3.png
4.png


5.png



6.png
7.png

8.png

9.png

10.png


You can find what I shared and much more in Türk Telekom 2019 annual report.
 

Anmdt

Experienced member
Naval Specialist
Professional
Messages
5,458
Solutions
2
Reactions
114 24,635
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
This must be a huge joke. Is not it? :LOL:
What do you mean they didn't invest?
Well, does Türk Telekom know about your writings?


View attachment 5368
View attachment 5369
View attachment 5370 View attachment 5371

View attachment 5372


View attachment 5373 View attachment 5374
View attachment 5375
View attachment 5376
View attachment 5377

You can find what I shared and much more in Türk Telekom 2019 annual report.
Strange, my house is in middle of istanbul, in a decent neighbourhood, the highest speed they provie is 60 Mpbs and there is no fiber -even with fiber they don't provide high speeds at affordable prices-, the stability of connection is bad and i can't establish proper remote connection, the ping delay is high despite of remote computer connection is P2P and it is within 10 km.
The fiber connection they claim is available until the central box of neighborhood and distributed via copper cables. And my house is far to that box, which is not placed frequently as supposed to be,and speeds naturally get slow.
I don't even mention how bad the connection quality ,speed, and ping values when i connect at computer located abroad. I didn't experience this when i was connected over greater distances ,ie. from Japan to Spain/Germany. The ping between Turkey -EU is worse than Japan -EU. I was using cloud storage in such cases and even GBs of files was transferred in less than a second between computers over cloud services, in case of Turkey it took up to half hour.

The backbone of connection wasn't strengthened as supposed to be.

In rare conditions at some rich places and sites they offer fiber connection up to entrance of a block or building, or a site. So you can get a real fiber connection. Again, i have tried at another residence and the connection was bad at internation connections.

So, don't talk if you don't know, don't live or don't experience it.

For speedtests they do tricks, like suggesting nearby server for test, or temporarily pumping up speed-prioritize the testing line, at offered rates to provide desirable results in speeds and pings.


Our internet is really amazing,
Mobile ranking : 54th
Broadband ranking : 101st

Turk telekom really performs well in Turkey , lol. Consistency score, %18 , speed score 13 Mpbs.


 
Last edited:

Bogeyman 

Experienced member
Professional
Messages
9,192
Reactions
67 31,253
Website
twitter.com
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
Strange, my house is in middle of istanbul, in a decent neighbourhood, the highest speed they provie is 60 Mpbs and there is no fiber -even with fiber they don't provide high speeds at affordable prices-, the stability of connection is bad and i can't establish proper remote connection, the ping delay is high despite of remote computer connection is P2P and it is within 10 km.
The fiber connection they claim is available until the central box of neighborhood and distributed via copper cables. And my house is far to that box, which is not placed frequently as supposed to be,and speeds naturally get slow.
I don't even mention how bad the connection quality ,speed, and ping values when i connect at computer located abroad. I didn't experience this when i was connected over greater distances ,ie. from Japan to Spain/Germany. The ping between Turkey -EU is worse than Japan -EU. I was using cloud storage in such cases and even GBs of files was transferred in less than a second between computers over cloud services, in case of Turkey it took up to half hour.

The backbone of connection wasn't strengthened as supposed to be.

In rare conditions at some rich places and sites they offer fiber connection up to entrance of a block or building, or a site. So you can get a real fiber connection. Again, i have tried at another residence and the connection was bad at internation connections.

So, don't talk if you don't know, don't live or don't experience it.

For speedtests they do tricks, like suggesting nearby server for test, or temporarily pumping up speed-prioritize the testing line, at offered rates to provide desirable results in speeds and pings.


Our internet is really amazing,
Mobile ranking : 54th
Broadband ranking : 101st

Turk telekom really performs well in Turkey , lol. Consistency score, %18 , speed score 13 Mpbs.


Once you want a very high internet speed, you will first pay for it. And you will have fiber cable laid up to your street. Then you have to run the fiber cable up to the last connection socket of your modem. There should be no copper cable on the line where the modem is connected. If the man brought it to your neighborhood, he doesn't have to bring it to your door. If someone else has a fiber line in the same site or building, then you will be comfortable.
Türk Telekom has laid fiber cables on the streets for 10 years. I remember when I went to high school in Bursa. They had wrecked the neighborhood. So you have to shell out for the luxury internet speed. You can call 444 0 375 and ask for a fiber line to your home. No, if it does not seem possible to happen despite this, sorry, my friend, then you will have to move to one of the closest houses in your neighborhood where the connection network is distributed. You can't solve this matter otherwise
 

Anmdt

Experienced member
Naval Specialist
Professional
Messages
5,458
Solutions
2
Reactions
114 24,635
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
Once you want a very high internet speed, you will first pay for it. And you will have fiber cable laid up to your street. Then you have to run the fiber cable up to the last connection socket of your modem. There should be no copper cable on the line where the modem is connected. If the man brought it to your neighborhood, he doesn't have to bring it to your door. If someone else has a fiber line in the same site or building, then you will be comfortable.
Türk Telekom has laid fiber cables on the streets for 10 years. I remember when I went to high school in Bursa. They had wrecked the neighborhood. So you have to shell out for the luxury internet speed. You can call 444 0 375 and ask for a fiber line to your home. No, if it does not seem possible to happen despite this, sorry, my friend, then you will have to move to one of the closest houses in your neighborhood where the connection network is distributed. You can't solve this matter otherwise
Turkey: up to 100 Mpbs fiber 330 lira - 34 Euro, fiber to home availability is low, mostly fiber to neighborhood and then via ADSL2- VDSL which again gives up to 100 Mpbs.

France: 1Gpbs fiber 42 Euro - fiber to home availability is high ,VDSL -ADSL2 availability up to 100 Mpbs is wide and cheaper.
Japan: 1 Gpbs fiber 48 Euro, fiber to home is available, or 200 Mpbs at 24 Euro if there is no direct fiber.
South Korea : 1 Gpbs 25-30 Euro fiber to home even in outskirts of cities

These prices are without commitment plans-pure montly prices.

The infrastructure should have been a lot better, we are at 101st place, in the world.
I wish you will never have to deal with Turk Telekom customer services, or technical services. Their first excuse, we offer speeds " up to an amount" and we do not guarantee a "low ping".
 

Bogeyman 

Experienced member
Professional
Messages
9,192
Reactions
67 31,253
Website
twitter.com
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
Turkey: up to 100 Mpbs fiber 330 lira - 34 Euro, fiber to home availability is low, mostly fiber to neighborhood and then via ADSL2- VDSL which again gives up to 100 Mpbs.

France: 1Gpbs fiber 42 Euro - fiber to home availability is high ,VDSL -ADSL2 availability up to 100 Mpbs is wide and cheaper.
Japan: 1 Gpbs fiber 48 Euro, fiber to home is available, or 200 Mpbs at 24 Euro if there is no direct fiber.
South Korea : 1 Gpbs 25-30 Euro fiber to home even in outskirts of cities

These prices are without commitment plans-pure montly prices.

The infrastructure should have been a lot better, we are at 101st place, in the world.
I wish you will never have to deal with Turk Telekom customer services, or technical services. Their first excuse, we offer speeds " up to an amount" and we do not guarantee a "low ping".
Turkey must invest more than 10 billion dollars for a capacity of precisely the kind of job you want. Since we are not that rich, there is not much we can do. Türk Telekom's value is not that much anyway.

Meanwhile, they say that due to the epidemic, Erdogan declared mobilization for Türk Telekom. The internet, which I used to transfer from Trabzon to Bursa in 3 weeks, now they come to an appointment the day after the application. (This used to take 1.5 weeks)
Internet was connected in 4 days.
 

Saithan

Experienced member
Denmark Correspondent
Messages
8,591
Reactions
35 19,659
Nation of residence
Denmark
Nation of origin
Turkey
Turkey must invest more than 10 billion dollars for a capacity of precisely the kind of job you want. Since we are not that rich, there is not much we can do. Türk Telekom's value is not that much anyway.

Meanwhile, they say that due to the epidemic, Erdogan declared mobilization for Türk Telekom. The internet, which I used to transfer from Trabzon to Bursa in 3 weeks, now they come to an appointment the day after the application. (This used to take 1.5 weeks)
Internet was connected in 4 days.
Sounds good. But everything depends on ressources and capacity. Once you go fiber low speed should be unacceptable
 

Anmdt

Experienced member
Naval Specialist
Professional
Messages
5,458
Solutions
2
Reactions
114 24,635
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
Turkey must invest more than 10 billion dollars for a capacity of precisely the kind of job you want. Since we are not that rich, there is not much we can do. Türk Telekom's value is not that much anyway.

Meanwhile, they say that due to the epidemic, Erdogan declared mobilization for Türk Telekom. The internet, which I used to transfer from Trabzon to Bursa in 3 weeks, now they come to an appointment the day after the application. (This used to take 1.5 weeks)
Internet was connected in 4 days.
I just wanted to point out, even in direct comparison the internet is cheaper in countries with higher minimum wage, and higher currency value. The material costs might make up about 20-30 percent, the remaining is personnel cost.
And yes you have just told it, the TT is reviving after TMSF - State has gained power on it due to bankruptcy caused by earlier owner.
So you now accept that, the privatization has messed up Turk Telekom company and once state has gained power and financial power on it, they are getting better at their work and again, they started to work on infrastructure and customer services.

I was actually satisfied with setting up speed because my internet in several cases connected within 2 days after application. Even in case of transfer they came at the day they were appointed at. The problem is ,sometimes in large cities there isn't any available socket in the switch-boxes and you may wait up to months for connection, and still billed for those unused months.

Lets honestly accept, privatization has failed Turk Telekom badly, and it is reviving in last months upon being free from private hands.
 

Follow us on social media

Latest posts

Top Bottom