TR Economy & Updates

Grand Charles

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For info more turkish people receive grants for research, (333.9 million euros) in Turkey.
The European Union finances research and innovation programs of Israeli, Turkish, American, Swiss and Norwegian groups. Groups which in return are increasingly formidable on the community market and on major exports.
Europe finances research programs (scientific excellence, industrial primacy and societal challenges) for the benefit of foreign groups, which have the most legal access in the world as associate members in the same way as European groups.
Hundreds of Turkish companies are benefiting from it.
 

Tornadoss

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The Czech Republic does not use the euro as its official currency, but the Treaty of Athens forces it to eventually join the economic and monetary union and to adopt the euro. Czechia has been a member of the European Union since May 2004.

Don't compare this country village and an area of 78,871 km, that is barely half of Istanbul,
Even though this "village" exported $198 Billion 2019 before the covid and has a trade surplus. They are doing well despite being an ex-communist country.
 

Rodeo

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on the industrial and military level, the government is doing good job, but on the civilian industry side, the Turks are not playing the game, they prefer to invest in foreign currencies than to set up businesses.
They complain that there is not enough agriculture and food production when they do not want to create or work in these sectors.
They leave the countryside to come take a taxi or sell imported products in Istanbul.
What do you want the government to do?
It is not China to oblige the population
People are not playing the game? What is the purpose of a government? We should just abolish the damn thing be done with it then. The ruling party has failed miserably on every account. Let's face it.
1. We have a terrible education system that creates mediocre, unskillful graduates.
2. We have a terrible, untrustable and downright treacherous judicial system.
3. We have/had a terrible foreign policy.
4. We have/had a terrible, contradictive economic policy.

We have a president who shouted at the faces of British businessmen in England and lecturing them on low interest rate. We have a president who called Germans Nazis. We have a president who, on every occasion, didn't hold back his spiteful language on every country's prime minister to play the crowd. How many times he said the CB is independent and then end up removing the head of CB. How many minister of economy we had in the last five years? I ask you, how many? We'd be here all day long if we started to count the sins of the current head of the state.

Coming to your claim about defense industry, these companies weren't founded by Erdogan. They were already deep in development on many facets of the game. But one thing I can give you is that the catastrophic collapse of Erdogan's foreign policy and resulting alienation of Turkey from the rest of the World and some sanctions made us put extra emphasis on the defense sector and that accelerated the development of some of the products.

However, defense industry is very minimal in respect to the country's GDP. For instance, this year we will have $3billion exports from the defense sector. If we compare this to the total exports, 3 / 220 makes 1.3%. This record breaking defense exports makes only 1.3 percent of the total. I'm writing this so you could gain some perspective of the scale.

Edit: Our defense companies had considerable ToT from western countries when we had good relationships. For instance, go ask Indians if they have the critical blisk technology for their turbine engines despite their more than 30 years efforts when we(TEI) acquired the technology from GE in 2009.
 
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Grand Charles

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Even though this "village" exported $198 Billion 2019 before the covid and has a trade surplus. They are doing well despite being an ex-communist country.
Whatever this country does, you have nothing to do with it, you have nothing to do with the economy of the country, you are just an import.
Let people who are not happy leave, they are not needed in Turkey.
Turkey moves forward without you, it will keep moving forward without you
When did Turkey count on you? Never.
Before this government, this country could not even produce socks, today we produce drones, planes, weaponry.
 

Rodeo

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Oh boy.. You truly have no sense of scale at all ,do you? You're setting the bar so low that I cannot engage in any meaningful discussion now. Thanks for showing your depth and saving me from wasting more of my time. You have a good night.
 

Grand Charles

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Oh boy.. You truly have no sense of scale at all ,do you? You're setting the bar so low that I cannot engage in any meaningful discussion now. Thanks for showing your depth and saving me from wasting more of my time. You have a good night.
tamam, good evening for u
 

Tornadoss

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Whatever this country does, you have nothing to do with it, you have nothing to do with the economy of the country, you are just an import.
Let people who are not happy leave, they are not needed in Turkey.
Turkey moves forward without you, it will keep moving forward without you
When did Turkey count on you? Never.
Before this government, this country could not even produce socks, today we produce drones, planes, weaponry.
Yes, this is confirmed you are Dr. Boss here with another account. Same rhetoric as him same belittling same arrogance.

Dude, you are not even living in Turkey and I doubt you ever lived. I am a software engineer working in a big sw company, contributing company to gain money, paying my taxes contributing to the country. Turkey counted on me when I was teaching in University publishing research papers, educating new generations on engineering, counted on me when I was paying my taxes. 70 years before your beloved leader lived this country was producing aircraft.

Anyway, I won't waste my time on you.
 

Nilgiri

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I am kindly inviting the ones who believes economy is good in Turkey, to come Turkey particularly Istanbul.

I will provide you minimum wage and ask you to live 'happily' with 2850 lira for 30 days. This includes transportation, bills, housing.

If you can't you you will be thrown in front of minimum wage earner Fathers of 2 kid families with a single income to be beaten, if you can meet the end of the month by living a proper humanly life i will give you $5k.

Any taker?

Let me warn you;
Average broken and old 1+1 house is 1500 lira in rent, no furnitures you gotta spare 50-100 for the furnitures as installment.
Gas (250 very optimistic), electricity(100), internet(100 cheapest) and water(50), phone (40 cheapest) bills are roughly 500 lira. Also the house equipments another 100 lira installment for washing machine, ovenz stove.
Transportation, (public 9 lira per day single transportation) 250-300 lira. If you want to use a car gasoline equilavent of 40km per day.

What do you plan to eat with remaining 300 lira? simit is something like 4 lira, or maybe already 5. 3 simit, one for each course, in a day meets 450 lira. Can you really sustain a humanly life with that money assuming you will also need clothing and shoes?

Who on earth devaluated TRY on purpose? Those minimum wage workers? Are you high on Erdogan or what, give us your recipe the Nation need your recipe to relax a little nowadays?

Tbh, there is all kind of conflation and spamming in this thread now about debt in predictable apples-apples way that I already explained is faulty.

There is even not an understanding by some the difference between total govt debt (govt can borrow from domestic private sources) and external debt (debt held externally, which can also be privately held).

It is a venn diagram with an intersection....they are not congruent.

That intersection (of govt and external debt) is non-ideal for non-US countries in general and extra-bad for developing countries like Turkey as it is payable in foreign currency.

Only the US (and to some degree EU and maybe Japan depending on the recipient brokering on it) can finance its own external debt by simply printing money (and dipping into what is known as larger seigneuriage, i.e the 50 - 100+ year long bedrock of institutionality, credibility and wealth it has established).

Dipping into that brings costs to US (some of what you see just now with the inflation going on currently) but it is much larger flywheel in international system than anyone else, with all the inertia that involves.

If the flywheel of that magnitude is truly in trouble, it means other large flywheels (EU, Japan, China) should start noticeable provable measures against it (eg. Chinese buying+retention of US bonds in amount that they do).....which they have not.

That is all a VERY different subject to a developing country (esp one under 100 million people) and what its pattern should be in getting from tier D ---> C--->B---A etc....and how to say learn from Chinese experience involving this from 80s - present day to scale to a sub-100 million population with its unique context.

It seems all this thread-spam is to deflect and distort from the core realities on the ground....typical internet gaslighting of getting last word in..... that wont work with those with sound rational mind....and those that live on the ground (being talked about in some removed virtual arena) especially so.

If someone here is indeed multi-accounting (for the spam generation and repeated volumetrically inclined circular cringe argument)....that just defeats his own credibility in the end even further and shows a real desperation.
 
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Nilgiri

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When it comes to actual attempt at qualitative analysis, the earlier running theory here was the depreciation of TL should get to 15 and then 20 so that exports can provide the miracle.

The proponents of that, still have not explained why TCB is intervening (especially with money they do not have) against it reaching 15 - 20 etc if that is indeed the govt strategy.

So we are at an impasse even on that (should be simple recognition that the govt doesnt know what its doing and has no strategy to get out of even this short term deep rut)....and this has indulged the circular repeat spam.

i.e (please excuse me using this analogy again, but its quite instructive I feel).... Why is the govt siphoning fuel (from other cars) to keep car going (that too in wrong direction away from nearest gas station).....and that too climbs in and then pushes on pedal and brake at same time like a clown....and repeat process till next car comes along to siphon from again....and then do more clowning around again.

That creates noise and pollution (inflation, structural erosions and dependencies and worse), but gets you nowhere.....you are stuck in rut wasting others time and resources they will have to front for a very long time even after you are gone.

Then you blame other drivers (responsible for their cars ...not yours) and your passengers (hostages with no choice) because you have some selective ignorance/hypocrisy and/or extreme buddy-buddy affinity for the driver for whatever reason.

Get a grip and grow some brain/spine now on consistent logic....or don't, stay a hypocrite/ignorant, and see what time does for yourself in resolving this all. It always does....truth and rationality have a way of winning long term.
 

Saithan

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@Nilgiri I am afraid that you need to spell it out more simple and use shorter sentences. Your answers requires certain amount of IQ that unfortunately seems to surpass those who side with AKP.

At the end of the day. They cannot even explain why AKP and RTE make contracts in USD for all their big development projects when they can make use of graduates in Turkey and pay salary in TL.
 

mulj

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Aye he is the voice of corruption and nepotism

He only cares to make his relatives and friends to be rich
None of his arguments and observation were disputed beside big words salads, i recomend you and others to read those kind of posts with proper attention and open mind.
 

Nilgiri

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Key takeaway here:

Observing steps of use of forex reserves and capital controls in slowing lira losses

We are already observing the government pursuing a “de-globalisation” strategy in using forex reserves to intervene in exchange-rate markets – after having previously committed not to do so – and adopting specific forms of capital controls to discourage depositing in foreign currency and selling of lira, to allow for lower rates while slowing currency losses. The catch is that defending lira via such a strategy is unsustainable long run.

The policy is expensive, and only buys time. Turkey racked up foreign-exchange reserve losses of over USD 100bn over 2018-20. Net reserves ex-swaps, standing at negative USD 42.3bn as of October, represent a lasting testament to consequences of this policy framework, which would be risky to attempt again with the domestic sector losing confidence in value of lira, precipitating further capital outflows.


==============

Basically Erdogan admin either will:

A) reverse course in 2022 (and lose face politically)...i.e bump up interest rates again to soak up liquidity and try reduce inflation (and prompt more savings)....and signal some rationality so TL can stabilise and try appreciate of own accord again.

B) double down and implement more extreme capital controls (damaging long term economy even more). Essentially make it harder or as hard as possible to transact into forex for TR citizens. This enforced autarky....will forcibly increase demand for TL and also depress demand for foreign currency (within Turkey)....in effort to stop TL sliding to say 20/USD. Trade and investment (in all directions) will take a direct hammering (i.e you force the country to rely much more only on what it can produce within itself as far as possible).

What do members think is more likely?
 

Deliorman

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The AKPeon paradox:

We should be happy that the Lira is losing value because it “boosts exports and production”- the economy is doing great! Erdo said this and we should be patient and believe him!

At the same time- Westerners are attacking the economy on purpose and this is why the Lira/economy goes down. Erdogan said it and we should believe him.

Our friends here move their asses/opinions from one side to another faster than a belly dancer only to prove how their Prophet Erdo is right no matter how bad the situation really is. I just don’t understand how someone can be this blind and hypocritical...
 

Rodeo

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The AKPeon paradox:

We should be happy that the Lira is losing value because it “boosts exports and production”- the economy is doing great! Erdo said this and we should be patient and believe him!

At the same time- Westerners are attacking the economy on purpose and this is why the Lira/economy goes down. Erdogan said it and we should believe him.

Our friends here move their asses/opinions from one side to another faster than a belly dancer only to prove how their Prophet Erdo is right no matter how bad the situation really is. I just don’t understand how someone can be this blind and hypocritical...
You hit the nail right on the head.
 

Fighter_35

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You hit the nail right on the head.
The still don't understand or they still try to save face. What they do is not to think but find excuses and believe whatever akp says.
Otherwise , before that good post by Deliorman , there are multiple issues to speak about so they would be against akp.howwver still they defend akp. That post by Deliorman will not change their mindset. But majority of akp supporters lose faith and look for alternatives. The ones here are the elite ones of akp or the ones who work abroad and paid by akp.
 

Nilgiri

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The AKPeon paradox:

We should be happy that the Lira is losing value because it “boosts exports and production”- the economy is doing great! Erdo said this and we should be patient and believe him!

At the same time- Westerners are attacking the economy on purpose and this is why the Lira/economy goes down. Erdogan said it and we should believe him.

Our friends here move their asses/opinions from one side to another faster than a belly dancer only to prove how their Prophet Erdo is right no matter how bad the situation really is. I just don’t understand how someone can be this blind and hypocritical...

Central bank intervening (at heavy cost that will come starting next year).... to try hold turkish lira at its current position is also confusing them (wasn't the whole idea to get it to 20? and give exports a boost and reduce imports etc etc).

They wont answer if driver can tell difference between gas and brake pedal....the pedals they themselves defined just some pages back.

It needs an answer though (i.e what is actually the fundamental "go" vs "stop" steps concerning some asserted plan/decision)....

....well before discussion of if the car is pointed in right direction....

But they have the prepared answers at the ready anyway for that too (of course, driver smaht, driver stronk!).

I've noticed they gone quiet and "wait and see" w.r.t UAE too now. Before UAE was clearly bad.....it can soon be clearly good....just needs dear leader to say so if and when the cash-for-politics deal happens:

 

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