TR Economy & Updates

[Ravenman]

Tourism is good when you attract the tourists to the mainland where they can spend their money in the local economy and local vendors.

Problem with Turkey is same as Egypt and Greece. Always all-inclusive resorts - only two parties are benefiting; the charterfirms and hotel-sectors. The tourists are not leaving their hotel.

 

[Lool]

With the current trend, Turkey is going into default.... no doubt

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535172837182517250

The lira needs to improve; if previous rumors on this site is true, then a russian energy payment in either rubles or lira will save Turkey since (excluding energy) Turkey is already recording around 2 billion dollars trade surplus (according to the economist robin brooks). Though as I said, why on earth would Putin accept such a deal since he himself, just like the West, wanna see Turkey fall and will obtain cash to cover his war expenses at the same time

 

[UkroTurk]

The total resource allocated for agricultural supports in the 2022 budget is 25.8 billion liras.


Hotels, touristic restaurants sucks Turkish agricultural products and meat.

İf you supply tourism sector with domestic food while giving subsidiaries your Farmers, you just basically waste taxes in order to feed foreigners instead of feeding own nation.

İf Turkish tourism sector is supplied with Turkish agricultural products, The government should not support farmers with budget money.
Or full import of agricultural products and meat from abroad should be allowed !

Why do countries support agricultural sector? Because the citizens should reach cheap foods!


Currently Turkish citizens neither can buy foods nor meat.

EDIT: recall that Turkish farmers also feed 8 million Syrian and Afghan refugees plus Some Syrian cities which are under control of Turkish Army.

Also public transport fees should be doubled for foreigners.

 

[Ravenman]

With the current trend, Turkey is going into default.... no doubt

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535172837182517250

The lira needs to improve; if previous rumors on this site is true, then a russian energy payment in either rubles or lira will save Turkey since (excluding energy) Turkey is already recording around 2 billion dollars trade surplus (according to the economist robin brooks). Though as I said, why on earth would Putin accept such a deal since he himself, just like the West, wanna see Turkey fall and will obtain cash to cover his war expenses at the same time

Politics: Putin cant do shit with dollars or euros. He cant use them. And his economy is also in trouble.

So for now, Putin needs the ruble at the world theater. He needs buyers for the ruble like Turkey needs buyers for the lira.

A lira-ruble swap-deal could refresh both economies because Russia and Turkey have a trade volume of more than 25 billion per year if i am not wrong.

 

[Lool]

Politics: Putin cant do shit with dollars or euros. He cant use them. And his economy is also in trouble.

So for now, Putin needs the ruble at the world theater. He needs buyers for the ruble like Turkey needs buyers for the lira.

A lira-ruble swap-deal could refresh both economies because Russia and Turkey have a trade volume of more than 25 billion per year if i am not wrong.

If this is the case then why havent they officially announced such measure?

 

[Ravenman]

The total resource allocated for agricultural supports in the 2022 budget is 25.8 billion liras.


Hotels, touristic restaurants sucks Turkish agricultural products and meat.

View attachment 44704

View attachment 44705
View attachment 44706
View attachment 44707

İf you supply tourism sector with domestic food while giving subsidiaries your Farmers, you just basically waste taxes in order to feed foreigners instead of feeding own nation.

İf Turkish tourism sector is supplied with Turkish agricultural products, The government should not support farmers with budget money.
Or full import of agricultural products and meat from abroad should be allowed !

Why do countries support agricultural sector? Because the citizens should reach cheap foods!


Currently Turkish citizens neither can buy foods nor meat.

EDIT: recall that Turkish farmers also feed 8 million Syrian and Afghan refugees plus Some Syrian cities which are under control of Turkish Army.

Also public transport fees should be doubled for foreigners.

We have no farmers. Nobody likes farming - especially the new androgyne generation Z - they dont like farming.

Everyone who grows up in the east, meets Tiktok and goes to the big cities to work in the plants or clothing industry.

Less farmers -> less agricultural production -> more import -> higher prices

We need to stop the Chimerea vaccins for all new born babies, because they give boys women-chromosomes and they give girls men-chromosomes and create a androgyne society so that the LGBT-crowd grows bigger. End of Turkish society.

 

[Ravenman]

If this is the case then why havent they officially announced such measure?

I dont know. I hope its true. Because we have big trade volumes with Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran.

I dont understand why we stick to the dollar and dont trade in local valuta.

 

[Nilgiri]

Agreed, but it is still ironic considering how they criticised the fact that turkey didnt raise the interest rates when faced with chronic inflation while they themselves are suffering from the same fate....... AFAIK, Erdo doesnt want recession to occur even if it is at the expense of the wellbeing of the citizens..... a truly ridiculous and bullshit reason tbh...... anyone who believes that this is all about religion is a mad man; Erdo just doesnt want to admit that he doesnt want to see a recession

In fact, I expect the interest rates to top 9 or 10% if no interest hikes are made in the euro zone by the next month

The maneuvering room is entirely different between the two (the nature of the fever, how long its been there and the body bulk).

Besides when TR had <10% inflation range (however many years ago).... was there planned/announced policy rate increase to come a couple months or so after the inflation report release (like what ECB doing here)?

So that the debate can then actually credible enter one of the responsiveness/adequacy of the policy.....rather than whether you even believe its evidence, much less use it.

This TR admin clearly fundamentally doesn't believe in this policy (years have passed since the issue first took new proportions and consequences imposed on the TR population).

i.e It is fundamentally different issue to ECB doing a delayed rate hike 2 months after an inflation report in the <10% region still.

 

[Xenon54]

Agreed, but it is still ironic considering how they criticised the fact that turkey didnt raise the interest rates when faced with chronic inflation while they themselves are suffering from the same fate....... AFAIK, Erdo doesnt want recession to occur even if it is at the expense of the wellbeing of the citizens..... a truly ridiculous and bullshit reason tbh...... anyone who believes that this is all about religion is a mad man; Erdo just doesnt want to admit that he doesnt want to see a recession

In fact, I expect the interest rates to top 9 or 10% if no interest hikes are made in the euro zone by the next month

You sound as if there is no recession in Turkey yet.

1. Hypeinflation - check
2. GDP contraction - check
3. Currency devaluation at a fast pace - check
4. Highly volatile market - check
5. Big parts of the society struggling to even meet basic demans- check
6. Uncontrollable rise of debt in private sector - check

I might have missed it but what else is missing for a recession that Turkey doesnt have yet?

 

[TheInsider]

Turkiye is not in a recession if we take TL into account. The problem is a foreign currency problem that could have been fixed with an interest rate increase. When things become more favorable we could have decreased the interest rates slowly. If somehow today the US/TL recovers magically Turkish GDP will skyrocket. The problem is simple we are spending more USD than we earn and nobody wants to lend us the extra amount we need even though our debts are nowhere near Greece's level. USD lenders that we find ask for insane insurance rates to lend the USD. There are 3 solutions to this. Earn more USD, spend less USD or take debt to cover the need for extra USD. We are in deep shit because Erdo knows nothing about how the economy works. In the end, this will lead to the total collapse of the economy which will lead to an insane recession in both TL and USD, and I fear we don't have much time left.

 

[Glass🚬]

Dats cuz Turkey is much better than Europe and Ameriga and they are jealous...

i would assume its still better then that of some countries like bulgaria and romania judging by how these folks are enslaving themselves here in germany.

 

[Xenon54]

i would assume its still better then that of some countries like bulgaria and romania judging by how these folks are enslaving themselves here in germany.

Then assume again...

 

[Glass🚬]

Then assume again...

View attachment 44747

View attachment 44745

View attachment 44746

Dump all of ur jobless population to germany, make them work below minimum wage, send remittances, get good gdp

I dont need to assume again. U and I know exactly how these people are getting enslaved and some numbers arent going to change that if one also takes into account that their countries will be barely have any population in the coming decades.

Dunno if that can be defined in doing better then Türkiye ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[UkroTurk]

Turkish 5-yr CDS jump, bond prices under pressure​

Turkey 5-year credit default swaps added 36 basis points (bps) from Monday's close to 773 bps, levels last seen during the global financial crisis in 2008

 

[Xenon54]

Dump all of ur jobless population to germany, make them work below minimum wage, send remittances, get good gdp

I dont need to assume again. U and I know exactly how these people are getting enslaved and some numbers arent going to change that if one also takes into account that their countries will be barely have any population in the coming decades.

Dunno if that can be defined in doing better then Türkiye ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

How many first and second generation Turks still work in harsh jobs that pay barely above minimum?
Booth countries economies do obviously better than Turkey, no need to cope about it.

 

[Glass🚬]

How many first and second generation Turks still work in harsh jobs that pay barely above minimum?
Booth countries economies do obviously better than Turkey, no need to cope about it.

Not as many any more, there is a reason why these eastern euros are migrating in masses now, isnt that right?
And Just looking at gdp nominal stats is just not the way to go when comparing countries living standards lel especially when both countries have the combined population of istanbul.

 

[Xenon54]

Not as many any more, there is a reason why these eastern euros are migrating in masses now, isnt that right?
And Just looking at gdp nominal stats is just not the way to go when comparing countries living standards lel especially when both countries have the combined population of istanbul.

Give Turkish citizen a EU Passport with shengen visa and watch how many millions flock to EU.
I came back just a month ago from Turkey, at least 5 people uncluding the guy at the bar in airport half jokingly said i should take them with me, they would even go in the luggage.

I rented a car in Istanbul and the highway was full with Bulgarian number plates who were coming for a nice weekend shopping trip to Istanbul, you knows those Bulgarians whom you claim they have worse economy than Turkey but whose leva is still 10 times more worth than the lira.

It seems its been a while since you have been to Turkey, go now and see it with your own eyes, even the most staunch government supporters will admit economy is doing bad, the bills at the end of the month compared to income dont lie after all.

 

[Glass🚬]

Give Turkish citizen a EU Passport with shengen visa and watch how many millions flock to EU.
I came back just a month ago from Turkey, at least 5 people uncluding the guy at the bar in airport half jokingly said i should take them with me, they would even go in the luggage.

I rented a car in Istanbul and the highway was full with Bulgarian number plates who were coming for a nice weekend shopping trip to Istanbul, you knows those Bulgarians whom you claim they have worse economy than Turkey but whose leva is still 10 times more worth than the lira.

It seems its been a while since you have been to Turkey, go now and see it with your own eyes, even the most staunch government supporters will admit economy is doing bad, the bills at the end of the month compared to income dont lie after all.


View attachment 44765

Thats exactly why they will never receive such passports lel

u can tell me ur fairy tales but idc, the fact that these bulgarian are making an extra way just shows that in their top economy they wouldnt be able to have the purchasing power and we both know thats the reason for it lel

I have posted already a good video explaining what the issue with the turkish economy is and thats just not the interest rates. Now erdo is doing some right things and here its important that opposition continues following these policies after 2023 as well.

Why Türkiye's Lira is Broken (It’s Not Interest Rates) (ft. @IntoEurope)

Invest in blue-chip art for the very first time by signing up for Masterworks: https://masterworks.art/moneymacro Purchase shares in great masterpieces from ...

www.youtube.com

FDI in Turkey hits $14B in 2021 as global flows rebound

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Turkey soared 79% year-over-year in 2021, a report by United Nations’ trade and development agency UNCTAD showed...

www.dailysabah.com

No, at least since 2016 I observe that Turks have collectively a problem with the lira and basically shit talk it, creating negative market sentiment against the lira, as a result it also continues to loose on value, in crypto we call it fud " FUD is an acronym for Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt and is commonly used in the cryptocurrency community as a short way to describe negative information about a blockchain based currency or asset."

here are some examples:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/comments/5ncoad https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/comments/7cvtm0 https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/comments/b3r1sq https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/comments/95u8lx https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/comments/giajc9

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

and if Turks bet against the lira then u can have the most progressive financial policies but as long as Turks collectively believe that they have to exchange the lira for other currencies because they believe the turkish lira is trash regardless of its exchange rate then there is no easy cure.

 

[Xenon54]

Thats exactly why they will never receive such passports lel

u can tell me ur fairy tales but idc, the fact that these bulgarian are making an extra way just shows that in their top economy they wouldnt be able to have the purchasing power and we both know thats the reason for it lel

I have posted already a good video explaining what the issue with the turkish economy is and thats just not the interest rates. Now erdo is doing some right things and here its important that opposition continues following these policies after 2023 as well.

Why Türkiye's Lira is Broken (It’s Not Interest Rates) (ft. @IntoEurope)

Invest in blue-chip art for the very first time by signing up for Masterworks: https://masterworks.art/moneymacro Purchase shares in great masterpieces from ...

www.youtube.com

FDI in Turkey hits $14B in 2021 as global flows rebound

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Turkey soared 79% year-over-year in 2021, a report by United Nations’ trade and development agency UNCTAD showed...

www.dailysabah.com

Im not saying Bulgaria is on par with wester europe, just saying they are performing better than Turkey now.

The only one telling fairy tales here is you, go to Turkey and try to explain them that Turkish economy "isnt doing that bad" while spending your German euros, lets see what the locals reaction will be.

 

[Glass🚬]

Im not saying Bulgaria is on par with wester europe, just saying they are performing better than Turkey now.

The only one telling fairy tales here is you, go to Turkey and try to explain them that Turkish economy "isnt doing that bad" while spending your German euros, lets see what the locals reaction will be.

And im telling u

Dump all of ur jobless population to germany, make them work below minimum wage, send remittances, get good gdp

I dont need to assume again. U and I know exactly how these people are getting enslaved and some numbers arent going to change that if one also takes into account that their countries will be barely have any population in the coming decades.

Dunno if that can be defined in doing better then Türkiye ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

--

idc what the locals opinion of me will be, stop shorting the lira on every occasion collectively, thats what i would tell them in mega almanci style.