TR Economy & Updates

[Agha Sher]

It is not about Competition.
It is not about Benefits for TOGG.

I am sorry but you missing the problem here.

World Automotive giants SAW that Turkiye released TOGG product. They understand that This automotive corporations TOGG WILL HAVE THE POWER to change "PIE" of what % of money is going to which Automotive company.

BMW already reacted that they will try to HIT Turkiye market which will make TOGG product hard to sell.
Now Tesla is also make his own move to do the Same Attack.

Strategy is to confine TOGG in boarder of Turkiye. If this fail and TOGG able to establish in other countries abroad then -> Automotive giants monopoly will have BIG losses in revenue and real big PROBLEMS.

Everything is not a conspiracy. Especially not with Elon Musk

 

[Ryder]

People should know that Toyota is experimenting with other technology not just electric there will be alternatives mark my words.

 

[Knowledgeseeker]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1605861143838396416

 

[Lool]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1605861143838396416

Prepare for a new wave of inflation

 

[Baryshx]

Prepare for a new wave of inflation

Are we ready for new raises friends? Does anyone have an estimate, will the minimum wage increase be compensated by inflation after 1-2 months?

 

[Huelague]

Competition is good for innovation.

Not in this stage for us. Lets grow a little bit, enter EU market. Than we can go in to a direct competition. Right now, its a fight between a lion and a sheep.

 

[dBSPL]

For unskilled workers, this increase of 100% on an annual basis will provide significant relief. 455 dollars net salary, which I think is the highest minimum wage in foreign currency in the history of the republic. Adjusted for inflation, it should be equivalent to around 350-360 dollars 20 years ago.

I think the problem here is not the minimum wage level. The reason why there are so many registered minimum wage earners in the country is that employers operate off the books to avoid insurance high premiums.

If the minimum wage goes up that much, it will bring the average wage balance much, much closer to the minimum wage. That is the real problem. We are protecting the purchasing power of low incomes, but what about the middle income group? A senior engineer with an average of 10-15 years of work experience should get at least 4 times the minimum wage, but what percentage gets it? It is the same for the experienced foreman. The experienced workforce with 10-25 years of work experience is the backbone of the country's labor force. I am not belittling minimum wage earners, but minimum wage earners are not the only problem of the country. And, not everyone is a public employee.

The other issue is pensions. Pensions are currently below the hunger limit. If a husband and wife have two pensions, and if you are paying rent, you are unlikely to live in a metropolitan area. I dont get in to separate discussions about a person has a certain amount of savings by that age. Will pensions come close to the minimum wage? At least 1 million more pensioners have come out of the lottery, I mean the elections, add them on top of that.

In short, unless steps are taken to regulate pensions at a rate above the minimum wage increase and to prevent the private sector from exploiting its employees, or another words, this decision will only work if it really regulates this market as it should be. Otherwise, the fact that the increasing prosperity mentioned by the minister will be reflected in every class will unfortunately not be a realistic statement.

TL;DR It is possible to suppress inflation and maintain the purchasing power of low-income earners until May-June. There will be another interim regulation at the end of the 6th month btw. But the real problem of the country is not the minimum wage earners. The middle income group is melting.

edit:

My interpretation about inflation: I think, net 55% increase has already been priced in by the market. For the last two months, the producer side has pushed prices according to the 8500tl expectation. Due to the seasonal effect of February-March, I do not expect inflation to make a high jump, but after June will be an important test.

Finance seems to organized all its resources according to the electoral strategy. The Ministry of Finance has reached the end of its preparations for a very low-interest housing loan. There are at least 1 million people waiting for retirement within the scope of EYT (those who are stuck in the age limit in retirement). The election is expected to take place in mid/end-May.

In June, the legal limit on rent increases expires. And most imprtantly, the May-June period, like the September-October period, is also a seasonally driven inflation spike. May not in food inflation, but in durable goods and textiles as usual.

 

[Xenon54]

455 dollars net salary, which I think is the highest minimum wage in foreign currency in the history of the republic.

Nope, 2007 was way better in every aspect.

Min Wage:

Dollar TL Exchange rate:

And the huge Inflation will eat away this raise too, the government is still doing band aid policies instead of the structural reforms because these are unpopular and nobody needs unpopular measures before the elections. I.E. economy is being sacrificed so some people can keep their seats.

 

[what]

Turkish workforce deserves every raise they can get, but the inflation wheel is already turning and without any interest rate hikes and demand destruction we wont get out of it.

Also there are so many people that do not get minimum wage in first place because of informal / illegal employements.

 

[Baryshx]

For unskilled workers, this increase of 100% on an annual basis will provide significant relief. 455 dollars net salary, which I think is the highest minimum wage in foreign currency in the history of the republic. Adjusted for inflation, it should be equivalent to around 350-360 dollars 20 years ago.

I think the problem here is not the minimum wage level. The reason why there are so many registered minimum wage earners in the country is that employers operate off the books to avoid insurance high premiums.

If the minimum wage goes up that much, it will bring the average wage balance much, much closer to the minimum wage. That is the real problem. We are protecting the purchasing power of low incomes, but what about the middle income group? A senior engineer with an average of 10-15 years of work experience should get at least 4 times the minimum wage, but what percentage gets it? It is the same for the experienced foreman. The experienced workforce with 10-25 years of work experience is the backbone of the country's labor force. I am not belittling minimum wage earners, but minimum wage earners are not the only problem of the country. And, not everyone is a public employee.

The other issue is pensions. Pensions are currently below the hunger limit. If a husband and wife have two pensions, and if you are paying rent, you are unlikely to live in a metropolitan area. I dont get in to separate discussions about a person has a certain amount of savings by that age. Will pensions come close to the minimum wage? At least 1 million more pensioners have come out of the lottery, I mean the elections, add them on top of that.

In short, unless steps are taken to regulate pensions at a rate above the minimum wage increase and to prevent the private sector from exploiting its employees, or another words, this decision will only work if it really regulates this market as it should be. Otherwise, the fact that the increasing prosperity mentioned by the minister will be reflected in every class will unfortunately not be a realistic statement.

TL;DR It is possible to suppress inflation and maintain the purchasing power of low-income earners until May-June. There will be another interim regulation at the end of the 6th month btw. But the real problem of the country is not the minimum wage earners. The middle income group is melting.

edit:

My interpretation about inflation: I think, net 55% increase has already been priced in by the market. For the last two months, the producer side has pushed prices according to the 8500tl expectation. Due to the seasonal effect of February-March, I do not expect inflation to make a high jump, but after June will be an important test.

Finance seems to organized all its resources according to the electoral strategy. The Ministry of Finance has reached the end of its preparations for a very low-interest housing loan. There are at least 1 million people waiting for retirement within the scope of EYT (those who are stuck in the age limit in retirement). The election is expected to take place in mid/end-May.

In June, the legal limit on rent increases expires. And most imprtantly, the May-June period, like the September-October period, is also a seasonally driven inflation spike. May not in food inflation, but in durable goods and textiles as usual.

Well written. Civil servants, teachers, nurses' salaries are in the ground. The minimum wage has caught up with their salaries. As you said, the middle pillar is on the verge of extinction, everyone will one day be on minimum wage, it is heading towards dystopia.

 

[Nilgiri]

Almost like a summary of the debate thats been going on in this thread for a while:

 

[Zafer]

Outlook for select countries, from IMF 2022 numbers. Blue is PPP GDP per capita, orange is Nominal GDP per capita.
I would say Turkiye's nominal GDP is actually at $15.890 looking at Romania's numbers.

 

[TheInsider]

The Turkish economy is getting better. CDS has fallen down to ~500(still high) and Macro parameters are more or less stabilized. The real problem is inflation. It will be another strong year for Turkish exports. We should aim for at least 270 billion (%8 increase, 4-5 billion of the extra 20 billion will probably come from the defense industry) while keeping the imports the same or slightly reducing them. The account deficit will depend on energy prices but it will be way better than the 2022 account deficit. It will probably land somewhere between 60-80 billion depending on energy prices.

Turkiye pays ~60 billion $ for natural gas per year assuming the price of 1000 cubic meters of gas is 1k $.
Turkiye pays ~25 billion for oil assuming 1 barrel costs 100 $.

 

[YeşilVatan]

The Turkish economy is getting better. CDS has fallen down to ~500(still high) and Macro parameters are more or less stabilized. The real problem is inflation. It will be another strong year for Turkish exports. We should aim for at least 270 billion (%8 increase, 4-5 billion of the extra 20 billion will probably come from the defense industry) while keeping the imports the same or slightly reducing them. The account deficit will depend on energy prices but it will be way better than the 2022 account deficit. It will probably land somewhere between 60-80 billion depending on energy prices.

Turkiye pays ~60 billion $ for natural gas per year assuming the price of 1000 cubic meters of gas is 1k $.
Turkiye pays ~25 billion for oil assuming 1 barrel costs 100 $.

If we somehow make the transition to nuclear, we can cut that 85 billion cost by half, essentially. Plus secondary benefits like lower energy prices leading to more productivity etc. This is THE issue that would fix our economy. That and some sociological issues like tarikats, hemşehri networks, corruption. If we solve these two issues even sky isn't the limit.

 

[Baryshx]

The Turkish economy is getting better. CDS has fallen down to ~500(still high) and Macro parameters are more or less stabilized. The real problem is inflation. It will be another strong year for Turkish exports. We should aim for at least 270 billion (%8 increase, 4-5 billion of the extra 20 billion will probably come from the defense industry) while keeping the imports the same or slightly reducing them. The account deficit will depend on energy prices but it will be way better than the 2022 account deficit. It will probably land somewhere between 60-80 billion depending on energy prices.

Turkiye pays ~60 billion $ for natural gas per year assuming the price of 1000 cubic meters of gas is 1k $.
Turkiye pays ~25 billion for oil assuming 1 barrel costs 100 $.

There is no confidence in the Turkish lira. Everyone invests their money in gold or foreign currency, this economy does not work like that. That's what he does, including me and everyone else around me. In my opinion, there is no trust in the Turkish lira, including those who voted for the AKP and the AKP executives. First of all, an environment of trust must be created, incompetence, nepotism, fights, insults and unlawfulness must end.

Of course, none of this will happen, I don't see our end well. Everything is not the defense industry, peoples do not look at these when they are starving.

 

[TheInsider]

Everyone invests their money in gold or foreign currency,

This is not true. Nobody invests in foreign currency anymore. People invest in gold and the stock exchange. The dollar is stabilized and not gaining any value against TL and will stay like that for the foreseeable future unless the government decides to relax it a little. People will slowly quit KKM but won't buy dollars. They will buy gold and some people will invest in the stock exchange.

Read from 17.

https://www.garantibbvayatirim.com.tr/medium/ResearchReports-Constant-11822.vsf

 

[Zafer]

Buy gold, stocks, land, materials, TL but not foreign currency, dollar is bleeding. What if Türkiye sells gas with TL next year

 

[Baryshx]

This is not true. Nobody invests in foreign currency anymore. People invest in gold and the stock exchange. The dollar is stabilized and not gaining any value against TL and will stay like that for the foreseeable future unless the government decides to relax it a little. People will slowly quit KKM but won't buy dollars. They will buy gold and some people will invest in the stock exchange.

Read from 17.

https://www.garantibbvayatirim.com.tr/medium/ResearchReports-Constant-11822.vsf

People who evaluate in the stock market are generally people with a high level of education. The majority of the people work as I said, these people generally vote for hdp, mhp and akp.

 

[Xenon54]

Outlook for select countries, from IMF 2022 numbers. Blue is PPP GDP per capita, orange is Nominal GDP per capita.
I would say Turkiye's nominal GDP is actually at $15.890 looking at Romania's numbers.

View attachment 51790

GDP is something that can be mesured and calculated, we dont need your estimations, it just is a fact that Turkey has been developing backwards since a decade now.

 

[Zafer]

GDP is something that can be mesured and calculated, we dont need your estimations, it just is a fact that Turkiye has been developing backwards since a decade now.

You don't need IMF estimations, OK then what is your numbers, tell us so we have some numbers to look at. You better start making some sense now.

I can see that you can't bear with anything good about Turkiye, so pathetic.