TR Economy & Updates

[B_A]

Well, there are few prodcuts that we can compete well one of which is drones. And the defence industry is likely to grow a lot bigger. We are doing our own thing there. If you can focus on science and technology you don't need debt. Another 5 years and we can possibly have taken a big leap; from chips and displays to space rockets and all.

Yes our defence industry is surplus now .

The problem is our civil industry ,we import too many things from China.

 

[Rodeo]

Everyone had low debt to GDP when they are growing.

See the S.Korean and every other rich countries

Japan debt to gdp only grow up suddernly after their economy fail in 1990s

That does not negate my point. Sure, having low debt to GDP is good for future growth(potential wise) but lower debt to GDP does not mean you have good economy. Afghanistan, for instance, have 7% debt to GDP. Is Afghanistan a prosperous country?

Here are the 12 countries with the lowest debt to GDP ratio;

Are we aspiring to become one of them?

Yes our defence industry is surplus now .

The problem is our civil industry ,we import too many things from China.

The defense industry does not even make up 1.5% percent of the economy. It contributed $12.2 billion to $905 billion GDP last year.

 

[Xenon54]

I prepared a table of Turkiye's GDP in 5 years intervals with the ranking and the population of the country. We reached the peak in 2013 with 16th place and it continued for two more years. Thereafter, it's downhill. And that is while continually growing in population.

(1970 and 1975 is from UN, the rest is from IMF data)

YEAR	GDP(Nominal $ bn)	World Ranking	Population(millions)
1970	24.4	20	34.7
1975	62.7	18( ↑2 )	39.1(+4.4mil)
1980	96.6	21( ↓3 )	43.9(+4.8mil)
1985	92.8	22( ↓1 )	49.2(+5.3mil)
1990	207.5	19( ↑3 )	54(+4.8mil)
1995	233.6	24( ↓5 )	58.5(+4.5mil)
2000	274.3	21( ↑3 )	63.2(+4.7mil)
2005	506	17( ↑4 )	67.7(+4.5mil)
2010	776.6	17	72.1(+4.4mil)
2015	864	16( ↑1 )	77.7(+5.6mil)
2020	720	20( ↓4 )	83.6(+5.9mil)
2022	905.5	19( ↑1 )	85.3(+1.7mil)

Saw the ranking above earlier but didnt even bother replying, some people are so far into delusion its just not worth the waste of time.

 

[Bozan]

What does 60,000 lira get you in Turkey and what does 60,000 euro get you in Europe

 

[Xenon54]

Everyone had low debt to GDP when they are growing.

See the S.Korean and every other rich countries

Japan debt to gdp only grow up suddernly after their economy fail in 1990s

View attachment 60419

Oh god not this again, just for the record, developed nations can go that far into debt simply because they can afford it way better than underdeveloped nations, look at wold stats and there is a consistency on this, most developed nations seem more indebted than third world, does that mean people live there better?
Its not nominal debt alone thats important but also your estates, posessions and reserves, most developed nations have a good record in paying debt back making their credit rating good which is granting cheap loans, Turkey does not have such high debts because it simply can not afford it.

Not a single developed nation is at risk of defaulting as of 2022, and if you look at the list of top risky countries the higher ranks are filled with those that have higher interest rates.

 

[B_A]

That does not negate my point. Sure, having low debt to GDP is good for future growth(potential wise) but lower debt to GDP does not mean you have good economy. Afghanistan, for instance, have 7% debt to GDP. Is Afghanistan a prosperous country?

Here are the 12 countries with the lowest debt to GDP ratio;

View attachment 60426

Are we aspiring to become one of them?



The defense industry does not even make up 1.5% percent of the economy. It contributed $12.2 billion to $905 billion GDP last year.

1.0-20%is too low.We had about 40% debt to GDP that is health. about 30-60% is the best range. The G7(except Germany) is a bit too high now


2.So I said the problem is civil industry.We need to do as good as Koreans

 

[dBSPL]

It is very important that if a challenge is to be made, it can be in any area of life, you first have to know yourself and your dynamics very well, and you need people around you who will keep you away from the psychology that will put you in a world of mind that will turn your investments/actions into gambling. When the human mind creates a comfort zone that it does not need to get out of, it has the potential to cause more damage to the individual than anyone else can. Man is also his own enemy, instincts mostly tends to block your progress. If we broaden the scale and think about it at the level of the corporate entity, the same tendencies apply, but the consequences have the capacity to impact much more beyond the individual. Let alone state level...

The curve of monetary policies and the strategies that this brain trust is trying to move forward on are debatable, but CBRT President Hafize Gaye Erkan (the youngest finance professor in the USA), CBRT Deputy Governor Fatih Karahan (Amazon / Former Chief Economist), CBRT Deputy Governor Osman Cevdet Akçay (Yapı Kredi / Former Chief Economist) are probably the most liberal and high merit profile that can be created with the current government structure. When you consider the total human resources of our nation in absolute terms, they may not represent the peak point, but what I want to explain here is that one of the teams that may have the most opposite stance within the current dominant ideological tendencies and the dynamics of the government structure is currently directing the monetary policies of the country. You must be seeing the psychology they create around you and on social media.

Now the question is, why did we try to swim against the current for 5 years if the playbook was going to be returned to eventually? Worse, we incurred this trillion dollar cost and abandoned it with all its losses without getting any tangible results. Even a simple investor executes his strategy based on risk-reward ratios and end strategy with cuts losses if it doesn't work. The country's economy was gambled with, and when the hand reached the point where it could no longer be sustained, there was no more will. If there is something else, then someone explain why we got into this mess.

You can be sure that if one day tomorrow this team will be put at the door, that is, if a return will be attempted again before getting the full results, all these costs will multiply logarithmically. I am not saying that we should embark on an endless journey with Mehmet Simsek and his UK creditors, but merit-based and competitive braintrust on monetery policies, maximally independent of governments, should be sustained without creating a sheltered fortress for any tendency and without turning monetery policies into a gamble. In this way, continuity can be ensured, and it will not be necessary to cut losses in 5-10 year periods without reaping the fruits of the suffering.

Economics is essentially a small part technical and a large part psychological. So if I go back to the beginning, we have to know ourselves and our weaknesses.

 

[B_A]

Since 2013 riot we had a 10years full of troubles,some because of the policy and others because of outside.We almost wasted this 10 years in economy.I wish 2023 be an end of these.

 

[Rooxbar]

I fear that this change of course and the big hike in the policy interest rate may be allowed by Erdogan as a short-term or even a one-time disincentivizing tool against KKM. We will wait and see.

Also on a side note, comparing countries' debts and debt to gdp ratios on its own (esp. at times of monetary laxness that ensued the dot com bubble until 2009 and comparing that to the 80s and 90s, where free-floating money was much tighter in comparison), without any regard for structural differences, geopolitical loci, what percentage of debt is owed to whom and in what sectors, and a myriad of other factors, is a futile venture and has very little explanatory power.

 

[UkroTurk]

Central Bank Interest rates increased, USD dropped 7%


Madem en sonunda faiz çıkarıcaktın , bu milleti son beş senedir rezerv açığına dolarizasyona, enflasyona niye mahkum ettin. Hani faiz sebebti, hani enflasyon sonuçtu. Yahu nasıl bir ülkeyiz.

Merkez Bankası faiz kararını açıkladı - Dünya Gazetesi

Merkez Bankası Para Politikası Kurulu, politika faizini 7,5 puan artırarak yüzde 25'e yükseltti. Faiz artışı piyasa beklentilerinin üç katı oldu.

www.dunya.com

Yabancılardan TCMB'nin para politikası kararına övgü - Dünya Gazetesi

Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB), enflasyonla mücadele kapsamında bugün tarihinin en güçlü adımlarından birini atarken, yabancı ekonomistler, söz konusu adımla birlikte TCMB'nin enflasyonu düşürme konusundaki ciddiyetinin net olarak anlaşıldığını ifade etti.

www.dunya.com

Foreigners praise the CB's monetary policy decision

While the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is taking one of the strongest steps in its history in the fight against inflation, foreign economists stated that with the said step, the seriousness of the CBRT in reducing inflation is clearly understood.

 

[Deliorman]

Only God knows how many billions some people made from depreciating the currency, from buying different assets for peanuts, from all the ups and downs and speculations on the financial markets in the last years.

Simsek and the new economics team are doing the right things now for sure... but again why was this whole madness of the last 4 years needed? Aren't all Government officials and their prostitutes ashamed that they defended this madness and the impoverishing of the Country and it's people.

 

[Nilgiri]

A step in the right direction

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1694666627252408810

Should have been done 5 years ago, a return to conventional economics to get ahead of the problem.

Turkiye could have been at 1 trillion nominal GDP at least by now. 250 billion in production was essentially squandered away for no reason and this will compound in the opportunity cost.

Unfortunately for many (developing) countries, GDP is also a very "1st world" oriented reference frame as it helps focus and capture lot of final consumption basis (and all surveying related to this)

Gross Output (GO) is arguably lot better measure for developing countries as it looks into and values supply side provision and elasticity lot more (i.e surveys lot more things upstream and in macro-format)....and developing countries should really be focused there as much as possible as the imperative before consumption (which really only matters once you have achieved large downstream wealth and wealth spread of note).

Capturing gross output in GDP (essentially double counting) is likely some part of reason China's GDP is inflated past what it actually is (compared to how developed countries measure GDP strictly)....and they compounded this problem further by their real estate investment on top....and then suppressing even their top level attempted reformers regarding this like Wen Jiabao and Li Keqiang (and their factions in the CCP apparatus and bureaucracy) more recently.

i.e There is balance to be had here (i.e developing sound measurement of both GDP and Gross Output side by side to compare) by much more institutional transparency and credibility from all countries, but unfortunately consumption-based GDP is be all end all promoted by western institutions as hold over from 20th century. Its not calibrating so well in 21st century even for themselves as their demographics age and debt burdens increase drastically.

The real estate focus in Turkiye (which drove lot of the unconventional economics of the Erdogan admin w.r.t promotion of low interest cheap credit no matter the inflation downstream).... rather than investing in supply side (which needs proper conventional basis w.r.t price signalling feedback into the central bank w.r.t the main investment sources in the world) combined with the overall GDP-centric basis the developing world has at large has really costed Turkiye a bunch in last 5 - 10 years.

The interest rate increase is welcome return to more solid footing, but lot more needs to be done in steady follow up to re-calibrate Turkish economy ship to the winds and currents out there....otherwise it simply patching one hole in the sail and working around the edges rather than taking the issues at hand squarely and concretely....and squandering of potential (i.e where you could have been) will continue and compound.

 

[UkroTurk]

List of countries by total private wealth - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I am more interested in National net wealth, also known as national net worth, is the total sum of the value of a country's assets minus its liabilities.

Despite the name, figures in this article only cover household wealth and exclude government wealth, which may be substantial, as in China, or negative, as in the UK or US, and so does not show total wealth.


We should create a national wealth.

Total household wealth by country

List of countries by financial assets - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

47 Turkey2,400

 

[B_A]

I think Turkey and India's bit higher because of the gold under the bed.

And some countries like UK And Japan must be lower because their wealth are most house prices

Turkish house was not expensive until recently

 

[B_A]

Finally the interest rate need to lower again but Erdoğan always too hurry up to do that,just like force a parent to run 10km.

İf no the virus his plan maybe work but too many troubles.He always want to do many things at same time.

 

[Afif]

List of countries by total private wealth - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I am more interested in National net wealth, also known as national net worth, is the total sum of the value of a country's assets minus its liabilities.

Despite the name, figures in this article only cover household wealth and exclude government wealth, which may be substantial, as in China, or negative, as in the UK or US, and so does not show total wealth.


We should create a national wealth.

Total household wealth by country
View attachment 60464

List of countries by financial assets - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

View attachment 60466
View attachment 60467
47 Turkey2,400

So you are telling me BD is richer than Türkiye?

 

[UkroTurk]

So you are telling me BD is richer than Türkiye?

Short answer: No!

Long answer:
Household wealth refers to the total net worth of individuals living together in a household. It is used as a measure in economics to compare the wealth of different countries or regions. However, it is important to note that household wealth alone does not determine the overall economic prosperity or richness of a country.

While it is true that the total household wealth of Bangladesh may be higher than that of Türkiye, it does not necessarily mean that Bangladesh is richer than Türkiye. Household wealth is just one aspect of a country's economic situation and should be considered alongside other factors such as GDP, per capita income, and overall economic development.

Household wealth reflects the accumulated assets (both financial and non-financial) owned by households, minus their outstanding liabilities. It includes assets such as real estate, vehicles, investments, savings, and retirement accounts. However, it does not take into account factors like income distribution, poverty rates, or the overall standard of living.

To get a comprehensive understanding of a country's economic situation, it is important to consider multiple indicators and factors beyond just household wealth.

 

[Kitra]

What does 60,000 lira get you in Turkey and what does 60,000 euro get you in Europe

And how many turkish citizens have 60000 tl and how many European citizens have 60000€ in the bank.

This was a very strange question.

 

[Xenon54]

List of countries by total private wealth - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I am more interested in National net wealth, also known as national net worth, is the total sum of the value of a country's assets minus its liabilities.

Despite the name, figures in this article only cover household wealth and exclude government wealth, which may be substantial, as in China, or negative, as in the UK or US, and so does not show total wealth.


We should create a national wealth.

Total household wealth by country
View attachment 60464

List of countries by financial assets - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

View attachment 60466
View attachment 60467
47 Turkey2,400

Show us the number in PPPPPPP.

 

[UkroTurk]

Increase interest and sell 1 billion dollars through the back door

I don't know why they like manipulating.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1695044041040068891