TR Economy & Updates

[Anastasius]

The other thing is, i don't wanna live in the shadow of great countries like the US, France, Germany, the UK etc. Watching them doing cool things and watching them in envy. But when the TL gets strong it impedes our ability to develop those stuff. Because it turns the incentive structure upside down. If you have strong currency why would the companies take high risk of failure of developing the cutting-edge technology. They would just buy it and use it because of the strong TL. We would never get out of this middle income trap. If what you're buying from outside was KUKA robots for your body shop or ToT or some infrastructure investment I'd be cool with it. But that's not how it will play out. And our fetish of owning the brand new, latest model of everything as a nation won't help either. I don't want us to make this mistake second time. We shouldn't buy phones, laptops, cars with the borrowed money. That will hurt us bad in the long run.

I feel like this exchange is getting personal with very little chance of bearing fruit. If you have thoughts about eliminating the trade deficit and inducing high-value product development, i'm willing to engage. But if you don't, i don't think we should pollute the thread more than already it is. I yield.

Then the number one thing you should be advocating for is a stronger and more robust education thinking that teaches very important critical thinking and academic skills to people that will stay with them for life. The lira being stronger or weaker has very little to do with it, you can have a random dude working on scientific breakthroughs in his garage with zero government and corporate funding because he's got the skills down.

Or a counter-example, the Ottoman Empire was one of the most powerful states in the European and Middle-Eastern regions for a while, yet it has barely produced a single noteworthy invention, discovery, philosophy or a work of incredible literature or art that is praised across decades like Don Quixote, the Mona Lisa, David, the Book of Five Rings, Romance of the Three Kingdoms, etc. Hell, half the reason why Balkan nationalists hate Ottoman rule is because they believe that they missed the Renaissance and the Enlightenment because of it. There's, well, a reason for that.

And guess what? A weaker lira and economy will also work against that, because people will be too busy trying not to starve and flee overseas to countries which will at least provide a basic income to live more or less comfortably. Which is what is happening now. Almost all of the Turks making discoveries and innovations are doing so in other countries. Pretty much none of them are doing so while in Turkey. That's a problem.

I have said this before, I sympathize with wanting to chase greatness but people supporting initiatives to do so via shortcuts that will do more damage than bring benefit are counterproductive. Let go of this "Turkey is a superpower by 2050" dream because it's not really gonna happen in the way that you think it is and focus on just getting the basics down.

 

[the]

Retailers lose love for Asia: Snarled supply chains force manufacturing exodus to Balkans, LatAm (Nov. 9)

Major clothing and shoe companies are moving production to countries closer to their U.S. and European stores, smarting from a resurgence in cases of the Delta variant of the coronavirus in Vietnam and China that slowed or shut down production for several weeks earlier this year.

www.reuters.com

Shift in production from the Far East to lower-cost countries in Europe continues. Whilst its important for Turkey to attract as much investment as possible (especially given its recognised textile/clothing industry in this case) its a shame that instability within the country prevents the establishment of more technologically advanced firms that can add to high-valued exports and help transform the country to a more tech orientated economy such as Taiwan or South Korea.

After all, without the establishment of production hubs of large tech companies such as Apple and Samsung, China would not have the skilled/experienced labour or tech to form its own giants such as Huawei and Xiaomi.

 

[TheInsider]

The fair value of TL should be between 5 and 7. TL/Dollar ratio was around 1.5-2 for years. IMHO those were the lost years of Türkiye. That was madness. Let's face the fact that we are not Germany, Japan or South Korea. Everyone was buying iphones for like 500-600 liras.

 

[Ryder]

Then the number one thing you should be advocating for is a stronger and more robust education thinking that teaches very important critical thinking and academic skills to people that will stay with them for life. The lira being stronger or weaker has very little to do with it, you can have a random dude working on scientific breakthroughs in his garage with zero government and corporate funding because he's got the skills down.

Or a counter-example, the Ottoman Empire was one of the most powerful states in the European and Middle-Eastern regions for a while, yet it has barely produced a single noteworthy invention, discovery, philosophy or a work of incredible literature or art that is praised across decades like Don Quixote, the Mona Lisa, David, the Book of Five Rings, Romance of the Three Kingdoms, etc. Hell, half the reason why Balkan nationalists hate Ottoman rule is because they believe that they missed the Renaissance and the Enlightenment because of it. There's, well, a reason for that.

And guess what? A weaker lira and economy will also work against that, because people will be too busy trying not to starve and flee overseas to countries which will at least provide a basic income to live more or less comfortably. Which is what is happening now. Almost all of the Turks making discoveries and innovations are doing so in other countries. Pretty much none of them are doing so while in Turkey. That's a problem.

I have said this before, I sympathize with wanting to chase greatness but people supporting initiatives to do so via shortcuts that will do more damage than bring benefit are counterproductive. Let go of this "Turkey is a superpower by 2050" dream because it's not really gonna happen in the way that you think it is and focus on just getting the basics down.

Before the Ottoman Empire tookover what was the Balkans doing that was important of note?

Barely anything it explains why the Ottomans steamrolled them due to them taking their tech from Asia regardless if its Arab, Persian or Chinese.

Us Turks and Mongols have never been inventors or discoverers but we allow it to flourish under our rule.

We were made for ruling and fighting. I dont see anything wrong with that.

 

[Saithan]

Italy’s UniCredit to sell remaining stake in Turkey’s Yapı Kredi

UniCredit said on Monday it would sell its remaining 20% stake in Yapı Kredi Bank by March 2022, as the Italian bank reduces its exposure to Turkey's...

www.dailysabah.com

 

[Saithan]

Current account balance posts $1.65 bln surplus in Sept - Latest News

Turkey's current account balance posted a surplus of $1.65 billion in September, bringing the 12-month rolling deficit to $18.4 billion, the Turkish Central Bank revealed on Nov. 11.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

 

[HTurk]

Current account balance posts $1.65 bln surplus in Sept - Latest News

Turkey's current account balance posted a surplus of $1.65 billion in September, bringing the 12-month rolling deficit to $18.4 billion, the Turkish Central Bank revealed on Nov. 11.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

It works.

 

[HaZZan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1458833049672728577

 

[HaZZan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1458833533523406856

 

[HaZZan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1458388957302075393

 

[Kartal1]

@HaZZan Brother thank you for your contribution. I would like to see English summary in the future so all our members could understand the information. Thank you again

 

[Anastasius]

The fair value of TL should be between 5 and 7. TL/Dollar ratio was around 1.5-2 for years. IMHO those were the lost years of Türkiye. That was madness. Let's face the fact that we are not Germany, Japan or South Korea. Everyone was buying iphones for like 500-600 liras.

5-7 is insane. I could understand if you were arguing for like 2-3 but 5-7 was already causing major issues years back.

Let me bring another perspective here. Maybe the reason we have such a terrible education system stems from the lack of demand from the industry. Maybe, if our companies were working hard to obtain state of the art technologies they would press for the universities to deliver more high-quality, educated engineers? The demand would reshape the education. An example would be the TEI's dire need of single-crystal blades for its next generation engines. It's the fringe of material science. And this demand could make the institutions be more involved with the science, building labs, tackling it more seriously and deliver a more qualitative education in the end. Or this a chicken or the egg first problem?

I know i shouldn't look at education with such a narrow scope as if it only be composed of universities but it's not so easy to determine the chain of causality for me.

One thing to add, i feel like i wrote this ten times now, I didn't suggested a lira that's so weak that it forces people to move abroad because of the inflation. Maybe i should've rephrased it as keeping dollar under control and not letting it to sinking too much because of the dollar injection.

Industry rarely cares for domestic education. If anything, companies prefer to hire from overseas for cheap. You can get an electrical engineer from China or India for pennies compared to the amount you'd have to pay an American graduate from Boston. China's 5G tech is based heavily on research done by a Turkish scientist. Most of America's R&D breakthroughs come from government funding like DARPA. There is a myth that industry is the main driver of innovation but that's not really true. On the contrary, industry will sometimes try to stifle innovation if it cuts into their bottom line.

I can understand your logic, even if I don't completely agree with it and think your over-evaluate export numbers and are weirdly allergic to anything other than a mega-positive balance of trade, but you and TheInsider are both proposing numbers that are still in the red zone and won't substantially improve much.

 

[Huelague]

5-7 is insane. I could understand if you were arguing for like 2-3 but 5-7 was already causing major issues years back.

Industry rarely cares for domestic education. If anything, companies prefer to hire from overseas for cheap. You can get an electrical engineer from China or India for pennies compared to the amount you'd have to pay an American graduate from Boston. China's 5G tech is based heavily on research done by a Turkish scientist. Most of America's R&D breakthroughs come from government funding like DARPA. There is a myth that industry is the main driver of innovation but that's not really true. On the contrary, industry will sometimes try to stifle innovation if it cuts into their bottom line.

I can understand your logic, even if I don't completely agree with it and think your over-evaluate export numbers and are weirdly allergic to anything other than a mega-positive balance of trade, but you and TheInsider are both proposing numbers that are still in the red zone and won't substantially improve much.

exchange rate between 3-4 lira is perfect.

 

[HTurk]

exchange rate between 3-4 lira is perfect.

Not really. Anything under 6.5 TRY will lead to an unbearable deficit in our trade with the rest of the world. I would prefer a realistic rate like 1 EUR to 7.5 - 8.5 TRY.

The government is guilty and bears responsibility for our current situation but people shouldn't act as if the Turkish citizens are totally innocent in this scenario we're currently living.

Give our people money to buy fancy stuff and they will do it. Saving? Investing? Thinking about tomorrow? No, sir. Our people aim for the easy path and make fun of hard working people. This goes for all of them regardless of political affiliation.

 

[Tabmachine]

I'm alright with no-o

Hey man, I was reading some of your posts on this thread the other day and I thought you would be interested in this video I was listening to today.

Its a talk by Bill Janeway, the former vice-chairman of Warburg Pincus (a big-time VC firm), and a now economist.

Here's an 'elevator pitch' by him :

and the book if you're interested and into reading: https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B07CN49YMS/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i0

 

[Turko]

Are there anybody here who listened his Majesty? Ottoman fans should have kept advice of Ottoman Prince.

While you are choosing best rate, currently USD/TL happens almost 10 ...

 

[Lool]

View attachment 35471

Are there anybody here who listened his Majesty? Ottoman fans should have kept advice of Ottoman Prince.

While you are choosing best rate, currently USD/TL happens almost 10 ...

Yeah current sell off in the lira is due to
1- Increasing possibility of rate reduction on Nov 18 which is now even more likely according to a recent reuters poll
2- Massive inflation in the US which will increase the likelihood of rate hikes by the US Fed

 

[TheInsider]

The US inflation figures are really bad. I think FED might increase interest rates and the dollar might skyrocket in TR and around the world.

 

[Manomed]

View attachment 35471

Are there anybody here who listened his Majesty? Ottoman fans should have kept advice of Ottoman Prince.

While you are choosing best rate, currently USD/TL happens almost 10 ...

btw this guy is a fake ottoman prince the real ottomans denounced him and called him fake

 

[Manomed]

Here is your sustainible economy sir @Fighter_35