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Turko

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Economist Gürses wrote the background of the 'value gain' in TL: The return of foreign exchange sales from the 'back door'




The Central Bank's analytical balance sheet provides us these data and clues.

The bank's data shows that the Central Bank sold $3.5 billion on Monday and $3.4 billion on Tuesday.

The summary is as follows: While 7 billion dollars were sold in order to reduce it from 18 TL to 12-13 TL, it was explained that "citizens sold" alone, without ever mentioning public foreign exchange sales in propaganda channels.

It is known that on 20 and 21 December, the Central Bank did not directly intervene in foreign exchange sales. Thus, it is obvious that a total of 7 billion dollars in these two days was sold through public banks "through the back door". These were the strongest sales in the last month.

My sources tell us that some private banks have been "convinced" to engage in "backdoor" operations, as have public banks.

In the last 3 months, the Central Bank has accelerated the escape from the TL by pulling the interest rate below the inflation rate. In December, starting with foreign exchange sales interventions, it sold 17 billion dollars in 21 days. Gross foreign exchange reserves, on the other hand, decreased to 113 billion dollars as of the end of December 21.





 
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Ecderha

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UAE to the rescue?
for source is reuters!
biased media when come to Turkiye.
reuters is equal or worst as russian media RT,Novosti, sputnik ..... when it is related to Turkiye
90%+ Creating articals for money to focus on Turkiye showing only bad things
 

what

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for source is reuters!
biased media when come to Turkiye.
reuters is equal or worst as russian media RT,Novosti, sputnik ..... when it is related to Turkiye
90%+ Creating articals for money to focus on Turkiye showing only bad things


Thats not true. Bloomberg, FT, Reuters have always been reliable and cannot be compared to those propaganda outlets.

Reuters knew about the gas discoveries in Turkey long before the Turkish media did. Those three have the closest networks to the governments.
 

Nilgiri

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I'm thinking the government probably needs FX currency for all their projects, if there are issues with lending money from abroad. Which could explain the model, and why people start going back to TL. People are guarenteed their value no matter how bad or well TL performs.

It'd be real interesting to see if future government projects are still done in foreign currency.

Although Erdoğan again n changed economic model which based on export and cheap labour force, I'm happy with the drop but they could have done it when exchange rates were 7-8-9.


If they had increased interest rates in TL enough to deter foreign exchange, instead of interest rate cuts, these games would not have been necessary; Banks would pay the interest.



now they are dumping the interest- that the banks have to pay -on the treasury of the whole society. The interest burden of the banks is on the whole society.
great injustice, even immorality


Someone who entered this system rushing yesterday opened an account of 12,348 lira for 1,000 dollars.
If this person wants to close his account today, the bank pays 11,640 liras for his 1,000 dollars.
Because the rate announced by the CB for the KKM account is 12,3480 yesterday and 11,6399 today.
Is the risk comprehensible ?


January, February-March: In these 3 months, the CPI increase will be at least 20 percentage points. How will you protect your savings against inflation in these 3 months?
If the dollar becomes 14.4 TL at the end of March, the dollar will protect you.
"New product" Is this possible with implicit interest?
Hard!
Is there any bank that gives 20% interest for 3 months?
Exchange? Gold?, Real estate?


"Even if inflation rises to 25 percent, if the exchange rate stays at these levels, which I guess will. They are trying to make it more stable. What will happen then?

People will start to lose in real terms.
January 3 will cause people to take the hat and put it in front of them and calculate. People'll say wow. I get 15% interest. They will not buy anything from the dollar rate under these conditions. Even if the person does, he will get small numbers. What if the dollar is 13? Because there is serious inflation in the middle. That's where the breaking point could be January 3.
On January 3, this account will confuse people."


Even Russia is using Turkey as a horror example. Everyone who rejoices that the TL is gaining strength should remember that it's in exchange for a big snowball ahead of us. The cost of the governments policy is going to hit like a sledgehammer in the future. like @TheInsider pointed out this isn't a policy that should be continued more than one year or so, but without reforms and anything only after elections and new government will proper reforms be made.

Yes sledgehammer like I said earlier.

All because of the interest rate thing.

It is like having pen on table and you moved it one way and its not a good position.

Instead of moving the pen back to where it was simply, you start tilting the table.

Then to tilt the table you tilt the floor underneath.

Then tilt the house after that and so on.

So that you dont have to look like you are moving the pen back.

Instead of simply moving the pen back on the desk....you change the whole darn exercise into some rube goldberg contraption instead.

Costs of rube goldberg process vs occams razor process is of course much higher.
 

Anastasius

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Look on the bright side Turkbros, the sheer magnitude of this economic ineptitude will likely go down in history.

You guys are going in the record books, maybe they'll even archive some of our posts for the future. 😁
 

Khagan1923

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gladly explaining how they are fucking over the average citizen to prop up their yandas firms.

The economy is fucked and it will take decades to undo the damage.

The akp is trying to steal as much as it can and meanwhile displaying the drop to 12 liras with shady methods as some kind of victory.

a year ago they were making fun of people who said the lira was going to lose even more value.

When your being made fun of by several credible economists maybe you should realize that your wrong. But then again that would mean that you are doing the wrong thing because you don’t know better and are incompetent. Which isn’t the case for Erdogan and his goons. Well they are incompetent but they are willingly doing the wrong things to enrich themselves more and leave the country in tatters after they are voted out.
 
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mulj

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If the lira stabilize at ( USD= 11 - 8 Lira ) , would the 4250 TL minimum wage will be enough or that depends on the inflation ?
it will go to 9,5 which is realistic value commented by various experts.
 

Agha Sher

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Lira goes up, these people are saying that AKP is stealing. lira goes down, these people are saying AKP is stealing. Lira goes nowhere, these people are saying AKP is stealing. Sorry guys, but you just ruined the last drop of credibility you had when critiquing AKP. It seems like your critique is not based on anything factual but just your hate towards the party.
 

Ryder

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Lira goes up, these people are saying that AKP is stealing. lira goes down, these people are saying AKP is stealing. Lira goes nowhere, these people are saying AKP is stealing. Sorry guys, but you just ruined the last drop of credibility you had when critiquing AKP. It seems like your critique is not based on anything factual but just your hate towards the party.

Havent you guys heard that before akp came Turkey lived in a golden age 🤣

LOL
 
M

Manomed

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Havent you guys heard that before akp came Turkey lived in a golden age 🤣

LOL
At least other goverments didn't bend their knees to pkk

At least we didn't lost a city during other goverments

People still forgot about cizre sur
Turks have short memory for some reason
 

Tornadoss

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Havent you guys heard that before akp came Turkey lived in a golden age 🤣

LOL
Well, my father is retired army officer my mother is retired teacher they were able to buy a house at age of 28. By saving money oné year, they bought a new Opel Vectra. You can not do that now with that job in these ages right now.
 

TheInsider

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What the government has been doing for a few days is called exchange rate speculation(pouring dollars-precious central bank reserves- into the markets after 6 pm and threatening the markets). Make no mistake you will see the dollar will be shooting back in Q1 and Q2 2021. Those who evaluate the trend with daily events will be surprised.
 

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