TR Economy & Updates

[B_A]

If I were Taiwan, Japan or Korea, I would not invest in Türkiye. Türkiye must first learn and digest democracy and the rule of law. These countries are also withdrawing their existing investments in our country, it has not escaped the eyes of those who follow them.

Our hope is Malaysia. It is also a country at a certain level

These three were just the colonies of USA

No matter any democracy and the rule of law.

They even invest in Communist China before.

 

[Ecderha]

This is nepotism. Anyone doing that regardless of their position should be put on trial and jailed. People who tolerate such practice should be ashamed of themselves.

"Anyone doing that regardless of their position should be put on trial and jailed." I agree, but we can see that if you are that person and you have power (money, people which are in system in power position), then there is no jail. It is just twisted and stretch in time.

" People who tolerate such practice should be ashamed of themselves." Again agree, but "ashamed" this word do not have weight on people which already changed. We live in world where "Greed" is the goal. We live in world where "Keep Saying Lies" is trigger interest of mass of the people, they like this.


What I am trying to say is that West is doing so many restless and brutal things, but west people try to play blind, deaf and shut-ed mouth. At same time the same people without any knowledge keep talking lies and blame other countries people that, this is not right, this savage, this is corruption etc...............

 

[B_A]

"Anyone doing that regardless of their position should be put on trial and jailed." I agree, but we can see that if you are that person and you have power (money, people which are in system in power position), then there is no jail. It is just twisted and stretch in time.

" People who tolerate such practice should be ashamed of themselves." Again agree, but "ashamed" this word do not have weight on people which already changed. We live in world where "Greed" is the goal. We live in world where "Keep Saying Lies" is trigger interest of mass of the people, they like this.


What I am trying to say is that West is doing so many restless and brutal things, but west people try to play blind, deaf and shut-ed mouth. At same time the same people without any knowledge keep talking lies and blame other countries people that, this is not right, this savage, this is corruption etc...............

If Westerner care about democracy and the rule of law they would never invest Communist China.

Westerner are just hate Turks.

They view Turks and Russian same Eusasian invaders

 

[what]

The foundation of Europe's largest Lithium Ion battery factory for electric vehicles is being laid today in Gemlik in partnership with Farasis. By 2031, Siro, which production capacity will reach over 20 GWh per year, will own the intellectual property of all products and solutions it develops. This also serves as an exemplary model in the opportunities for Turkish-Chinese industrial co-operation. Siro will provide stationary energy storage services for industrial applications, marine vessels, renewable energy to the European region as well as Turkiye.

On a broader scale, with other big facilities like ASPİLSAN Enerji Lithium Ion Battery Production Facility, there are aims to become the biggest production centre of the region within 10 years in the very large product range area of new generation batteries, from drones to vehicles.

Good news and good momentum in the battery industry.
TOGGs factory will grow to 20 GWh per year and Ford Otosan with LG envisions 45 GWh p.a.

 

[Ecderha]

If Westerner care about democracy and the rule of law they would never invest Communist China.

Westerner are just hate Turks.

They view Turks and Russian same Eusasian invaders

If Westerner care about democracy and the rule of law they would never invest Communist China.
This is not going to be changed. Why ?
West became to greedy, especially usa. They are involved in so many schemas to make money -> greedy as fuck that they use China production capability to buy cheap and sell it everywhere.
So those circles live in democracy but do not care about agenda related to China. They will keep investing in China to become more rich

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"Westerner are just hate Turks." - it is more correct that they hate Turks because of 2 main things.
1. Turks are not christians
2. Turks are having Istanbul. It is again about christian religion
============================================================================================

"They view Turks and Russian same Eusasian invaders".
Partially you correct -> It only True for those christains living from West side of europe to usa.

On the East of europe there are many christains countries which are part of the same sect -> "Orthodox" .They think that russians are good and their a family . This changing on new generation

===========================================================================================================

 

[B_A]

If Westerner care about democracy and the rule of law they would never invest Communist China.
This is not going to be changed. Why ?
West became to greedy, especially usa. They are involved in so many schemas to make money -> greedy as fuck that they use China production capability to buy cheap and sell it everywhere.
So those circles live in democracy but do not care about agenda related to China. They will keep investing in China to become more rich

============================================================================================

"Westerner are just hate Turks." - it is more correct that they hate Turks because of 2 main things.
1. Turks are not christians
2. Turks are having Istanbul. It is again about christian religion
============================================================================================

"They view Turks and Russian same Eusasian invaders".
Partially you correct -> It only True for those christains living from West side of europe to usa.

On the East of europe there are many christains countries which are part of the same sect -> "Orthodox" .They think that russians are good and their a family . This changing on new generation

===========================================================================================================

1."Westerner" normally only meant West europe and usa.

Not including eastern europe countries which was part of Warsaw pact.Normally Poland Bulgaria etc are easterner to the G7 "Westerner".

Westerner always discriminate against eastern european　

Britishs even used eastern european as an excuse to support Britexit

2.East of europe

May be Serbia Hungary Bulgaria etc be friend with Rusisan(and aslo Turkiye)

But Poland Estonia Lithuania etc hate Russia very much

 

[Baryshx]

These three were just the colonies of USA

No matter any democracy and the rule of law.

They even invest in Communist China before.

That's different, I have already written about it many times here. These countries will eventually be unleashed on China, they need to produce separate policies from the US as soon as possible. Korea is a little better in this regard

 

[Heartbang]

These countries will eventually be unleashed on China, they need to produce separate policies from the US as soon as possible.

They're not aware of the danger. and some of them are, to be honest, willing to be unleashed on.

 

[B_A]

That's different, I have already written about it many times here. These countries will eventually be unleashed on China, they need to produce separate policies from the US as soon as possible. Korea is a little better in this regard

By now still US s colonies

Maybe different in the future.

I just talk about the situation in in 1980-2023

 

[Chocopie]

US and its western suppliers arent the only player in semiconductors. We can sway places like Korea and Japan to move their less cutting-edge fabs to Turkish soil. That would be a good point to start buliding expertise and develop the link between Turkish academia and the semiconductor industry in general, which will inevitably lead to domestic breakthroughs.

And if all else fails, there's still China. They might not be in the cutting edge, but they're pretty damn close.

The global semiconductor supply and value chain is an interconnected and interdependent one, dominated by US, Europe, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in their specialized fields. Advanced and mid-tier chip manufacturing is one of the most complicated, R&D and investment heavy industry on this planet. With enormous consumption of water and energy. A secure, uninterrupted, fine-tuned supply of materials and chemicals are required - it's more time-consuming and difficult to shut down and boot up a chip production line than a nuclear reactor.

• Advanced processor design dominated by US and UK (Apple, Intel, ARM)
• Memory chip design dominated by Korea and US (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron)
• EUV and DUV lithography dominated by Netherlands and Japan (ASML, Nikon)
• Manufacturing machinery dominated by US, Japan, Europe (Lam, Applied Materials etc.)
• Photoresist, speciality gases, chemicals dominated by Japan and Europe
• Advanced chip production 3nm exclusively by Taiwan and Korea (TSMC, Samsung)
• Silicon wafer production, testing and packaging dominantly in Singapore, Malaysia etc.

Source: https://www.semiconductors.org/stre...miconductor-supply-chain-in-an-uncertain-era/

Source: https://www.gmfus.org/news/transatlantic-cooperation-semiconductors


Setting up a 3-5 nm manufacturing fab costs around $22-23 billion.
Even a lower-tech 28 nm plant costs around $7-8 billion.

Chip manufacturing clusters in Korea (Samsung, investing $230 billion in next 20 years):

Inside a 10 nm chip fab in Arizona, USA (Intel, costs appox. $9-10 billion):

A highly specialized workforce, vertical chip industry ecosystem, clusters of R&D institutions, just-in-time supply chain and logistics and most importantly: rare engineers/technicians with decades-long expertise in chip manufacturing process are needed to set up a meaningful fab with high yield-rate and low defect-rate for future profitability.

What are the economic incentives, that Türkiye can offer to attract foreign chip companies to build up fabs? These investors would have to take high risks in leaving the established semicon manufacturing supply and value chain by investing in a country with a small domestic chip market and without a finished electronics production of global scale. The Turkish state would need to pay foreign companies subsidies in the billions-range of $, provide almost free land, water and energy.

India recently tried to set up an advanced domestic chip manufacturing cluster and failed to allure partners with even upper mid-tier technology. Few companies like Foxconn with >100nm production capabilities showed interest. Afaik mainland Chinese chip makers doesn't set up fabs abroad.

 

[Sanchez]

All this BS talk about onion vs national security. You can't have national security without the onions.
TSK is probably at its worst funded time of the last 100 years. Billions worth of R&D budget doesn't account for the hole in the army's pocket.

 

[Nilgiri]

India recently tried to set up an advanced domestic chip manufacturing cluster and failed to allure partners with even upper mid-tier technology. Few companies like Foxconn with >100nm production capabilities showed interest. Afaik mainland Chinese chip makers doesn't set up fabs abroad.

One consortium is moving ahead (can be discussed further in that thread):

Indian Economy + Infra Archive

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indigo-orders-500-aircrafts-allies-with-turkish-airlines-to-expand-in-europe-101676692832585.html The deal to acquire 500 aircrafts was made with Airbus and Boeing which will allows the airline to fly to around 27 destinations in the continent. In...

defencehub.live

Semiconductor veteran David Reed, who recently joined as the CEO of Vedanta-Foxconn Semiconductors Limited, said, “We do have now access to a manufacturable grade, high volume technology. We have access to all the documentation and design IP, and it can support industrial and especially automotive. We can't go into details - who it is. But we've already started the transfer process.”

Recently, Reed was in Taiwan for two weeks to review the details personally. “It's bonafide high volume, 40-nanometer production-grade technology," he told BT.

It will be interesting to see what a ~ 10 billion dollar incentive will bring in and grow in today's relatively ensconced setting that you described.

This is why there is a larger problem w.r.t Turkiye given its current lack of financial health in forex, venture capital and fiscal room in the scales needed.....due to economic mismanagement that has been discussed for many pages prior in this thread.

 

[Chocopie]

One consortium is moving ahead (can be discussed further in that thread):

Indian Economy + Infra Archive

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indigo-orders-500-aircrafts-allies-with-turkish-airlines-to-expand-in-europe-101676692832585.html The deal to acquire 500 aircrafts was made with Airbus and Boeing which will allows the airline to fly to around 27 destinations in the continent. In...

defencehub.live

It will be interesting to see what a ~ 10 billion dollar incentive will bring in and grow in today's relatively ensconced setting that you described.

This is why there is a larger problem w.r.t Turkiye given its current lack of financial health in forex, venture capital and fiscal room in the scales needed.....due to economic mismanagement that has been discussed for many pages prior in this thread.

The JV doesn‘t look promising. Vedanta is a mining & metal company, Foxconn an electronics contract manufacturer: both without chip fab expertise. They tried to get European STMicro with licensed 40 nm tech on board … sceptical if this might be a scheme to grab Indian gov subsidies.

And Terry Gou, the batshit crazy Foxconn CEO is a rabid Korea- and Samsung-hater, hahaha. Once he bought ailing Japanese Sharp to beat Samsung in the display market. National Chinese right-wing extremist in bed with mainland CCP.

David Reed might be an experienced semicon veteran, but he can‘t do the heavy lifting alone. Got to hire hundreds of high profile, top earning chip facility process experts. Any country trying to jump on the semicon bullet train needs billions of $$$.

 

[Nilgiri]

I'll continue (India specific) discussion on it in the other thread.

My point is the larger difficulty for Turkiye here given they have their inflation rate, forex, fiscal room where they are currently by mismanagement here over a protracted period that will make things very difficult compared to say India in this sector and a number of other sectors.

Turkiye will have to work on addressing all of that. It is long conversation of itself in this thread.

Folks can search my replies and ppl like anmdt et al within this thread.

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1650920550787588110

"Almost all of the $50 million > qualified investments I have been trying to attract to Turkey for about a year have been postponed due to negative electoral scenarios. The situation is no different in the country, even public financial institutions are waiting for the election to approve many projects"

 

[Sanchez]

All this BS talk about onion vs national security. You can't have national security without the onions.
TSK is probably at its worst funded time of the last 100 years. Billions worth of R&D budget doesn't account for the hole in the army's pocket.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1651161633689939968

"....When we look at Turkey's defense expenditures, there is an increase in Turkish Lira, according to open source and government data.

However, its ratio to GDP has been decreasing for some time. When we look at the dollar basis, we can see the same decrease:

Why is there such a decline? I guess the answer is obvious. So how does this affect the defense industry?

Assuming that the money spent on procurement falls and this trend continues, we can say that the defense market has contracted.

In this case, either fewer companies will be supported, or fewer tools will be purchased from all of them to support all existing companies. The latter situation may increase the unit price. Moreover, the unit price will increase in systems with foreign inputs. In this case, less system can be taken. Or, payments to companies may be delayed, and they may be asked to use their own resources for a certain period of time.

I'm not saying this will happen, I'm saying it could happen. In this case, companies will have to rely more on exports to maintain their assets.
If the first case is to happen, then we may see a restructuring in the defense industry. In times when defense expenditures contract, we see that the number of companies generally decreases.

We are very focused on systems at the moment, but the decrease in spending is an important situation. It can lead to changes in the industry. I guess we'll see what happens next."

 

[what]

Kemal Derviş, economist, 1949-2023

He was the architect of IMF-backed progress subsequently reversed by Erdoğan

www.ft.com

Kemal Derviş (pronounced Dervish), the Istanbul-born economist who launched the ambitious restructuring of the Turkish economy after a devastating devaluation in 2001, has died aged 74. Derviş, who suffered from Parkinson’s disease, rose to international prominence as the architect in his native Turkey of one of the world’s most successful IMF stabilisation programmes following a 22-year career at the World Bank in Washington. So powerful were the vested interests he challenged with the establishment of apolitical market regulators that the newly-minted minister of state for the economy took to wearing a bulletproof vest, recalls Ajay Chhibber, the World Bank representative in Ankara who worked closely with him during his 17 months in office. Turkish newspapers at the time of his appointment by then prime minister Bülent Ecevit described the cosmopolitan polyglot as everything from “bionic” to “the last Turk the world has any confidence in”. A political novice, Derviş explained painful reforms with a clarity and sincerity that resonated with ordinary Turks after decades of economic mismanagement under a succession of shaky coalition governments.

 

[what]

The election spending, wage rises, pensions, the deferred gas payments, the current account deficit, inflation - it's going to get interesting to say at least.

 

[TheInsider]

After the elections, there will be a big bill to pay. The economy is going from bad to worse. There is and incoming price increase and devaluation.

 

[Nilgiri]

Turkey will probably default on its debt in 6-8 months, tourism in the summer may help, but winter things are going to be crazy.
View attachment 57458
The central bank has run out of foreign reserves and has recently started selling the gold reserves to make sure the dollar doesn't rise during the elections - so that Erdogan doesn't look bad.

The government will go into a balance of payments crisis, which is already happening, but this time, it will be systematic.
View attachment 57459
Here in this picture the government is running a -382 billion Lira budget deficit which they have to go the the central bank to finance - or use international creditors for things like Eurobonds which want 10%-20% interest payments (very expensive).

View attachment 57460
And since April 1st the Turkish central bank has sold $17,7 billion USD to stop the lira from devaluation.

Erdogan doesn't have the credibility or the team to change this economy anymore, raising interest rates will not fix this situation.
Under these circumstances (Erdogan will most likely win), I expect Turkey to default on its debt payments and run out of FX reserves in 6-8 months - things will get pretty bad (look at Lebanon and Sri Lanka).

I don't think a default is going to happen, though Turkiye will come under further economic strain for sure.

The largest foreign policy activity concerning this will likely be Turkish administration approaching more gulf countries for capital account funding by either SAFE (State administration of Foreign Exchange) deposits and/or currency swaps.

It is unlikely this will occur with any others (West, China, East Asia) given current geopolitical and economic climate (a long topic to get into)

Gulf countries on the other hand have ample reason to improve relations with Turkiye and/or extract more concessions and political capital (from say Erdogan admin) by doing so.

Their 5 largest sovereign wealth funds :

ADIA (UAE) ~ 700 billion USD
KIA (Kuwait) ~ 700 billion USD
PIF (KSA) ~ 580 billion USD
QIA (Qatar) ~ 450 billion USD
ICD (UAE) ~ 300 billion USD

Its unclear what state of leveraging these are all at with their own domestic and other commitments though....but just to give an idea of what I feel Turkiye will approach (given its now poor international credit rating) in greater capacity now past what it has dabbled so far with sukuk bonds and some currency swaps mostly with these same countries.

The drop in Turkish forex is starting to look very concerning (given its trade, investment and GDP denominators):

Turkey Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves

Foreign Exchange Reserves in Turkey increased to 87030 USD Million in October 3 from 86700 USD Million in the previous week. This page provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term...

tradingeconomics.com

Looking at bare minimum ratios that other developing countries under financial stress have had recently or in the past..... TR will want to stabilise at least above 50 billion given its imports are ~300 billion a year and more importantly with the CAD trend where it is:

Turkey Current Account Balance, 1992 – 2025 | CEIC Data

Turkey Current Account recorded a deficit of 3.8 USD bn in Jan 2025, compared with a deficit of 4.6 USD bn in the previous month.

www.ceicdata.com

i.e it will need about 50 - 100 billion injection (depending on current account performance this year compared to 2022) on capital side this year to handle both this and the capital account debt repayments given what its burning through on both current account side and domestic fiscal side.

This is a malady that has been allowed to get to this stage...by reasons long discussed in this thread.