Over the 2010s, Turkey has become a much more independent geopolitical player, but at the same time less predictable and does not correspond to the ideas of the United States in general about what kind of Turkey the US would like to see as a “model” for the Muslim countries of the Middle East. As the instability in the region increased, Turkey also no longer an “island of stability” for the US, but a source of new, often unexpected impulses on a regional scale.
It is evident that the Turks do not want to be sidelined by the US or the West when it comes to their own national security concerns. Neither do they want to be hamstrung by easily severed logistics. Clearly, they want to be, and have been thinking about becoming, important players in regional politics, and their public national security policy says as much. They have become involved at every opportunity in multi-national military interventions. They have shown a willingness to defy the US. They have industrial and procurement plans aimed at strategic autonomy.
[32]
From strategic partnership to adversary
Further information:
Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act
The situation is set to deteriorate significantly after the passage of the
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019, with an amendment added by Senator
John McCain requiring the Trump administration to submit a detailed report to Congress on the status of US–Turkey relations. The Department of Defense (DOD) submitted a mostly classified report to Congress in November 2018 followed by H.R. 648 which required the DOD report on the issue in 2019.
[33] On 14 December 2020, the US listed Turkey as America's "
Adversary" and consequently imposed restrictions against the
Turkish Defence Industry Agency.
[34] Before Turkey listed in
CAATSA and barred from approaching new NATO technological development, Turkey was excluded from the joint
F-35 project in Jul 17, 2019.
[35] NBC reported that U.S. ejects Turkey from F-35 fighter jet program in the sign of worsening ties between Pentagon following Syria, Iraq wars.
[36]
In 2018, the
Council on Foreign Relations recommended “US needs to develop alternatives to Incirlik Air Base. The use of the base to advance U.S. interests is no longer assured.”
[9] In 2019, US and Greece signed "Revised Defense Cooperation Agreement". The agreement was described as critical to responding to new security challenges in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. In 2021, a new agreement the "Greek-American Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement" permitted the US military to use Georgula Barracks in Greece's central province of Volos, Litochoro Training Ground, and army barracks in the northeastern port city of Alexandroupoli apart from the naval base in Souda Bay in Crete which the US has been operating since 1969.
[37] In short couple years, Turkey saw shifting NATO powers to its western neighbor.
Anadolu Agency reported growing US military presence in Greece can lead to undesired scenarios in the Aegean ‘Deploying more US troops to Greece would disrupt NATO’s powers,’
[38] In 2021,
Biden's recognition of the Armenian genocide reflects the dispensability of Turkey-US relations, on the other hand, Biden also emphasized the relations with Armenia.
[39] After Azerbaijani blocking
Zangezur corridor in 2023,
American Enterprise Institute scholar
Michael Rubin called Biden to act,
[40] and talks with Armenia to establish a military base in the Zangezur corridor.
[41] While Sep 11, 2023, a small contingent of US special forces trained Armenian soldiers during the "
Eagle Partner" exercise in Armenia.
[42]
On October 12, 2023, President Biden declared "particularly the actions by the Government of Turkey to conduct a military offensive into northeast Syria, undermines the campaign to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, endangers civilians, and further threatens to undermine the peace, security, and stability in the region". Following this declaration President Biden reestablished Executive Order 13894 which stated Turkey is an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States constituted by the situation in and in relation to Syria.
[43] Following the
2023 Ankara bombing, Turkish intelligence officials established that the assailants arrived from Syria by paraglider,
[44] where they had been trained. Six days before the declaration, Turkey began bombing their facilities in Syria,
October 2023 Northern Syria clashes.
[45] CJTF–OIR downed a Turkish drone, while doing airstrikes on PKK militants around Hassakeh which came within 500 m of American troops.
[46] A day before the executive order made public, Turkey declared to intensify strikes on PKK in Iraq and Syria.
[47]
According to
Council on Foreign Relations, the United States needs to adjust its expectations, ask for less, and develop other options because Turkey only remains formally a NATO ally but not a partner of the United States.
[9] Since the deterioration of the relationship, there has been growing Turkish-Russian security cooperation.
[24]
ecurity backbone. The sooner people realize this, the better.
