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Sanchez

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They suggest that YPG areas being used for Ukrainian attacks on Russian positions would lead to a clash between Russians and YPG and possibly SAA. Russians hitting YPG while we just sat back and watch would certainly be worthwhile.
 

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Can‘t understand these Erdogan fanboys from 3rd world countries mumbling about Islam here and Muslims there. Mostly from states with 55% literacy rate and 55 years life expectancy.

The foundation of Türkiye‘s modernization was Mustafa Kemal‘s vision of a new Turkish state: the adoption of Western science, education and technology, abolition of the Arab script for a higher literacy rate and introduction of strict laicism. And the most important part: national identity and pride. A good Turkish leader has to be a Turk first, a Turk second and a Turk third. Personal belief is a private matter.

The Muslim world is plagued with self-inflicted backwardness, corruption, nepotism, illiteracy, intolerance, violence, unlawfulness and laziness. All these paranoid narratives of Western-Zionist conspiracy are lame excuses for own failures of a fallen Islamic civilization.

Only educated, hard-working people can create a strong country. Stop praying, start studying.
I agree mostly, but let me be a devil's advocate for a bit here.

You know how when a state is accused of violating human rights, both western liberal people and their states start talking about boycotts, right? What this results in is isolation, and a public square dominated by domestic voices. Those domestic voices are almost always majority traditionalist conservative voices. The isolation resulting from boycotts then leads to lack of relations with foreigners, a more limited experience of other cultures and lower influence of rational dialogue.

I bring this example up to illustrate how two Muslim majority countries' society has developed in the past 40 years, something I've witnessed first hand: Turkey and Iran. Both these countries had a majority conservative population 40 years ago with a minority western influenced and educated elite. In Iran this elite was mostly congregated around the royal family in the capital city; in Turkey due to Atatürk's reforms this elite was more organic and decentralized and also bigger in numbers. This elite class dominated politics, media and entertainment industry in both countries; which is a natural outcome of that class' background: educated, more wealthy and with access to a network of influential people in the centers of the most populated cities with higher social mobility. What this domination of media, entertainment industry and politics creates is polarization, esp. when the elite class fails to spread the opportunities and the social dynamism to a higher number of people from the working class.

The image the country projects both to abroad and to its own people is dominated by media and entertainment industry. A conservative looking at this, seeing the t.v. programs, movies, etc. always presented and participated by people who do not look like him and don't share his values starts to amass a certain amount of resentment towards the system and people who represent it, who are rich, dress differently, look different, talk different and have very different and alien ideas. In reaction to this, and as a result of the failure of this elite class to spread their ideas and worldview institutionally through higher education and more equal opportunities in access to employment in critical sectors (which in turn are again dependent on the educational opportunities, again itself dependent upon quality primary and secondary education), these ideas and worldview which we can call modernism stays limited to that elite class, and the traditional communities throughout the country become alienated from them and this contrast of worldviews (one of which lords over them) hurls them towards more reactionary and rigid defense of their pre-held traditional worldview and values.

This increasing polarization leads to lesser social dynamism, lesser participation in civil society and lower presence of esp. women in the workforce and education sector. These results are in turn amplified through the negative feedback loop of growing polarization leading to less and less social dynamism. All of this pent up resentment towards the wealthy western-looking alien elites with their scandalous lifestyle leads to, in case of Iran a theocratic revolution; and in Turkey for the conservative rural and working class to push constantly for electing one of their own and someone who shares their ideas to public office to bring about their ideology and "drain the swamp". (this reaction was also clandestinely influenced in another more inconspicuous way; the way those rural conservative communities interpreted their own worldview (Sunni Islam in Turkey's case) was pushed towards more extremist interpretations due to Gladio and American project of supporting Wahhabism to counter communist ideologies taking hold in these societies, giving billions of dollars to Saudis to open religious schools all around the world, making Wahabbism the dominant interpretation of Islam for the first time in history due to the influence of thousands of Imams educated in these schools or ones influenced by them (Mujahideen, Taliban, Al-Qaeda, Al-Shabab all results of this wahhabi revolution); incidentally Gulen was the continuation of this trend for Central Asia and also inside Turkey).

Now we come full circle to what I pointed out at first; the issue of boycott and how isolation doesn't help change culture in traditional societies. You should now see what I'm going to argue for. The conservative rural class taking power over from the elite western-looking class leads to subsidence of the resentment from them as they see themselves more and more represented in government, albeit still much less in media and entertainment sector (this is different in Iran compared to Turkey as all entertainment and media is government owned so the rural conservative class came to dominate the media and entertainment sector there, leading to what I call a class-less society which has its own complications). This subsidence of resentment leads to higher presence and participation of the rural conservative class in civil society, higher education, critical sectors, and most important of all conservative women in education and workforce (this is the achilles heel of many Muslim-majority countries right now, imagine half the country not participating in the workforce); in itself leading to migration to cities due to heightened sense of social entitlement which in turn itself takes members of that class from their conservative setting, helping them change lifestyles, and even worldviews. This process is not as complete or as pervasive as one would like, but it does lead to urbanization and the values which come with it. It's a slow process but since it happened 40 years ago in Iran, it had transformed that society from a society that was much more conservative than Turkey, to a society with at least 40% atheist population and a meager 20 to 30% conservative population. This is a cultural shift there, which will reverse if the regime in Iran changes, because the urbanization, industrialization and percolation of ideas in civil society and public square is almost non-existent; so there, this change doesn't have the material substrate to make it sustainable and that society is extremely diseased, but this situation is due to the theocratic regime having constant power for 4 decades, going for its 5th decade now. So while the conservative women in workforce and education has been solved, it has created many other problems; but one cannot imagine if the gains for conservative women would have been made if the modernist elites were still in power, alienating conservatives, helping them stick even more fiercely to their traditional identity as a reaction.

In Turkey, our only chance now is to learn from the mistakes of the modernist elites of the yesteryear in isolating and shunning the conservative working class. It's on the educated urban class to provide the means in education for children of the conservative second generation urban dwelling conservatives to get out of their schools with a modernist, science-based tolerant but inquisitive view of the world, because the past that many fantasize about wasn't as rosy they picture it, because if it was, it wouldn't lead to the backlash that you saw in the past 30, 40 years.
 
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Heartbang

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They suggest that YPG areas being used for Ukrainian attacks on Russian positions would lead to a clash between Russians and YPG and possibly SAA. Russians hitting YPG while we just sat back and watch would certainly be worthwhile.
Sounds great, not sure it would be successful though.
 

Ryder

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No its real but is mixed with their clan cultural rules like here in balkan we aslo have our own cultural differencies with other muslims . They just poor and can easy go to extreme religion that Quran itself speek about it .
Why west dont show Islam like in Dubai , istanbul , Doha , Astana , sarajevo , Kuala Lampur ? while their religion always show the best lifestyle of italy france like christian coutries while most christian live in poor South america with big mafia and gangs killing each other while in extreme Africa christian live with lions and hyenas with spears in hands but when someone mention christianity they always think about europe and never about africa ,S america while always the opposite for Muslim Countries ?!

It will never to come their minds.

Their only minds is either Afghanistan or Saudi Arabia.

I kid you not we live in a age where everybody thinks Afghans are Arabs.

Not realising Afghan is nationality while the country itself has numerous ethnic groups.

There are Afghan Arabs but they came with the Muslim Arab conquest of the region.

Arabs in Afghanistan dont form a sizable population compared to Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Hazaras and Turkmens.
 

Ryder

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Can‘t understand these Erdogan fanboys from 3rd world countries mumbling about Islam here and Muslims there. Mostly from states with 55% literacy rate and 55 years life expectancy.

The foundation of Türkiye‘s modernization was Mustafa Kemal‘s vision of a new Turkish state: the adoption of Western science, education and technology, abolition of the Arab script for a higher literacy rate and introduction of strict laicism. And the most important part: national identity and pride. A good Turkish leader has to be a Turk first, a Turk second and a Turk third. Personal belief is a private matter.

The Muslim world is plagued with self-inflicted backwardness, corruption, nepotism, illiteracy, intolerance, violence, unlawfulness and laziness. All these paranoid narratives of Western-Zionist conspiracy are lame excuses for own failures of a fallen Islamic civilization.

Only educated, hard-working people can create a strong country. Stop praying, start studying.

Muslim World believes a single leader will solve their problems.

Hence why many are still visiting Saladins grave.

Still this belief in a hero who will come and save us is just stupid lazy cope.
 

Ryder

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Muslims look towards the Far East Asia see how Japan, Korea and China does it rather than complaining about how the world is against us.

This includes me too by the way.

Korea was the poorest country in the world now you see the results. Have a vision and a plan and work to it.
 

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I agree mostly, but let me be a devil's advocate for a bit here.

You know how when a state is accused of violating human rights, both western liberal people and their states start talking about boycotts, right? What this results in is isolation, and a public square dominated by domestic voices. Those domestic voices are almost always majority traditionalist conservative voices. The isolation resulting from boycotts then leads to lack of relations with foreigners, a more limited experience of other cultures and lower influence of rational dialogue.

I bring this example up to illustrate how two Muslim majority countries' society has developed in the past 40 years, something I've witnessed first hand: Turkey and Iran. Both these countries had a majority conservative population 40 years ago with a minority western influenced and educated elite. In Iran this elite was mostly congregated around the royal family in the capital city; in Turkey due to Atatürk's reforms this elite was more organic and decentralized and also bigger in numbers. This elite class dominated politics, media and entertainment industry in both countries; which is a natural outcome of that class' background: educated, more wealthy and with access to a network of influential people in the centers of the most populated cities with higher social mobility. What this domination of media, entertainment industry and politics creates is polarization, esp. when the elite class fails to spread the opportunities and the social dynamism to a higher number of people from the working class.

The image the country projects both to abroad and to its own people is dominated by media and entertainment industry. A conservative looking at this, seeing the t.v. programs, movies, etc. always presented and participated by people who do not look like him and don't share his values starts to amass a certain amount of resentment towards the system and people who represent it, who are rich, dress differently, look different, talk different and have very different and alien ideas. In reaction to this, and as a result of the failure of this elite class to spread their ideas and worldview institutionally through higher education and more equal opportunities in access to employment in critical sectors (which in turn are again dependent on the educational opportunities, again itself dependent upon quality primary and secondary education), these ideas and worldview which we can call modernism stays limited to that elite class, and the traditional communities throughout the country become alienated from them and this contrast of worldviews (one of which lords over them) hurls them towards more reactionary and rigid defense of their pre-held traditional worldview and values.

This increasing polarization leads to lesser social dynamism, lesser participation in civil society and lower presence of esp. women in the workforce and education sector. These results are in turn amplified through the negative feedback loop of growing polarization leading to less and less social dynamism. All of this pent up resentment towards the wealthy western-looking alien elites with their scandalous lifestyle leads to, in case of Iran a theocratic revolution; and in Turkey for the conservative rural and working class to push constantly for electing one of their own and someone who shares their ideas to public office to bring about their ideology and "drain the swamp". (this reaction was also clandestinely influenced in another more inconspicuous way; the way those rural conservative communities interpreted their own worldview (Sunni Islam in Turkey's case) was pushed towards more extremist interpretations due to Gladio and American project of supporting Wahhabism to counter communist ideologies taking hold in these societies, giving billions of dollars to Saudis to open religious schools all around the world, making Wahabbism the dominant interpretation of Islam for the first time in history due to the influence of thousands of Imams educated in these schools or ones influenced by them (Mujahideen, Taliban, Al-Qaeda, Al-Shabab all results of this wahhabi revolution); incidentally Gulen was the continuation of this trend for Central Asia and also inside Turkey).

Now we come full circle to what I pointed out at first; the issue of boycott and how isolation doesn't help change culture in traditional societies. You should now see what I'm going to argue for. The conservative rural class taking power over from the elite western-looking class leads to subsidence of the resentment from them as they see themselves more and more represented in government, albeit still much less in media and entertainment sector (this is different in Iran compared to Turkey as all entertainment and media is government owned so the rural conservative class came to dominate the media and entertainment sector there, leading to what I call a class-less society which has its own complications). This subsidence of resentment leads to higher presence and participation of the rural conservative class in civil society, higher education, critical sectors, and most important of all conservative women in education and workforce (this is the achilles heel of many Muslim-majority countries right now, imagine half the country not participating in the workforce); in itself leading to migration to cities due to heightened sense of social entitlement which in turn itself takes members of that class from their conservative setting, helping them change lifestyles, and even worldviews. This process is not as complete or as pervasive as one would like, but it does lead to urbanization and the values which come with it. It's a slow process but since it happened 40 years ago in Iran, it had transformed that society from a society that was much more conservative than Turkey, to a society with at least 40% atheist population and a meager 20 to 30% conservative population. This is a cultural shift there, which will reverse if the regime in Iran changes, because the urbanization, industrialization and percolation of ideas in civil society and public square is almost non-existent; so there, this change doesn't have the material substrate to make it sustainable and that society is extremely diseased, but this situation is due to the theocratic regime having constant power for 4 decades, going for its 5th decade now. So while the conservative women in workforce and education has been solved, it has created many other problems; but one cannot imagine if the gains for conservative women would have been made if the modernist elites were still in power, alienating conservatives, helping them stick even more fiercely to their traditional identity as a reaction.

In Turkey, our only chance now is to learn from the mistakes of the modernist elites of the yesteryear in isolating and shunning the conservative working class. It's on the educated urban class to provide the means in education for children of the conservative second generation urban dwelling conservatives to get out of their schools with a modernist, science-based tolerant but inquisitive view of the world, because the past that many fantasize about wasn't as rosy they picture it, because if it was, it wouldn't lead to the backlash that you saw in the past 30, 40 years.
A very fine and elaborate analysis, thanks for that! Interesting food for thought.

I believe that Atatürk‘s political, legal, social, educational and economic reforms were more radical than anything the Shah regime has attempted in Iran. Mustafa Kemal eliminated the influence of the Muslim clergy (e.g. any religion) and changed a society upside down.

Pahlavi‘s Iran suffered from the typical ills of a resource-rich oil monarchy: half-hearted reforms, rampant corruption, inefficient bureaucracy, unfair distribution of wealth, brutal suppression of opposition. The unbroken influence of the Shia clergy and the antagonized and impoverished underclass (rural and urban) led to his downfall.

The Mullah regime has no future whatsoever, with or without the sanctions of the West, because it‘s built on theocratic principles that denies freedom of thought.
 

Ryder

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A very fine and elaborate analysis, thanks for that! Interesting food for thought.

I believe that Atatürk‘s political, legal, social, educational and economic reforms were more radical than anything the Shah regime has attempted in Iran. Mustafa Kemal eliminated the influence of the Muslim clergy (e.g. any religion) and changed a society upside down.

Pahlavi‘s Iran suffered from the typical ills of a resource-rich oil monarchy: half-hearted reforms, rampant corruption, inefficient bureaucracy, unfair distribution of wealth, brutal suppression of opposition. The unbroken influence of the Shia clergy and the antagonized and impoverished underclass (rural and urban) led to his downfall.

The Mullah regime has no future whatsoever, with or without the sanctions of the West, because it‘s built on theocratic principles that denies freedom of thought.

Compare the Ottomans and the Qajars the Qajars were much more feudal and traditional.

Ataturk had something to work while the Pahlavi dynasty continued the Qajars where they left off with their corrupt feudalism.

Shias tend to be much more conservative. Shia clergy actually hold much more power compared to Sunni. Sunni clergy even if they hold power still do not hold full power in a state.

Shia clergy hold much more power which is a pretty interesting case. Due to the Ayatollahs believing how they are not infallible.
 
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Ryder

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I doubt the authenticity of the leak for now, but this is pretty funny. Ukraine was going to arm and provide anti drone air defence systems and training to the SDF in return for the SDF performing clandestine operations against Russia.

Turkey was aware of it and had asked Ukraine to use the SDF and not the SNA in the first place, hoping for Russian blowback against the SDF.



This is weird as fck.

But damn Ukraine helping Pkk/Ypg.

Not really surprised then again its better the Ypg rats are uaed as cannon fodder against the Russians.
 

Chocopie

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In Turkey, our only chance now is to learn from the mistakes of the modernist elites of the yesteryear in isolating and shunning the conservative working class. It's on the educated urban class to provide the means in education for children of the conservative second generation urban dwelling conservatives to get out of their schools with a modernist, science-based tolerant but inquisitive view of the world, because the past that many fantasize about wasn't as rosy they picture it, because if it was, it wouldn't lead to the backlash that you saw in the past 30, 40 years.
Agreed, science-based education and an open-minded exchange of ideas is key to success.

Atatürk laid the republic’s foundation and the development path of Türkiye was indeed rocky and not always rosy. Now I think the Turkish society stands at a critical crossroad to decide for their future roadmap.
 

Rooxbar

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A very fine and elaborate analysis, thanks for that! Interesting food for thought.

I believe that Atatürk‘s political, legal, social, educational and economic reforms were more radical than anything the Shah regime has attempted in Iran. Mustafa Kemal eliminated the influence of the Muslim clergy (e.g. any religion) and changed a society upside down.

Pahlavi‘s Iran suffered from the typical ills of a resource-rich oil monarchy: half-hearted reforms, rampant corruption, inefficient bureaucracy, unfair distribution of wealth, brutal suppression of opposition. The unbroken influence of the Shia clergy and the antagonized and impoverished underclass (rural and urban) led to his downfall.

The Mullah regime has no future whatsoever, with or without the sanctions of the West, because it‘s built on theocratic principles that denies freedom of thought.
Yes, the nuances and differences are plenty so I didn't really have time or space to go into them; the comparisons and similarities are rough and superficial but they are there to a certain extent. Conservatism as a phenomena has so many variations specially in the context of Shia mujtahids and how powerful and influential they are compared to Sunni clergy and Sunni tradition in Turkey which itself has a very different evolution from other Arab Sunni traditions due its roots in Maturidi theological school which Ottomans inherited from Seljuks. They are fascinating subjects indeed.

Iran's regime will fall, esp. as oil prices are going to go down due to lower demand as climate change rears its more visible face to apoint where extraction is not that profitable, but I'm not hopeful for a post-Islamic Republic Iran as a culture and a society. There's a superficial evolution in terms of breaking from Shia Islam in that society, but it is superficial. The break itself is not superficial, don't get me wrong; people whose grandparents were staunch Muslims in Iran now curse Shia Imams, their hatred is so much of the religion; but thought patterns are still very much stuck in the Messianic-Mahdist way so Iranian populations solution to their problems (as it is with all societies which go through hell) a very kind of get-rich-quick easy solution of going back to Shah; his son literally is the most prominent opposition figure and the guy has done nothing but eat and sleep through his 50 years of life with the money they stole to buy penthouses right next to Central Park. But the society hasn't matured (it hasn't had any opportunity to due to a lack of public square, every avenue of discussion being blocked by the regime) politically so the only solution they have is based on a very oversimplified analysis of their situation leading to the delusion of now=bad, before=good. So they literally see everything from this lens and would rather just ignore shortcomings of the pahlavi regime, and just engage in myth-making based on couple of reels shared on social media of how women didn't wear the veil and their Shah wore suits and shit. It's just how a baby would think, and they literally don't have even one public intellectual being critical of their own society or pointing out weaknesses in analysis, because no-one would tolerate any opposing view and would get lynched for even suggesting that Iran had problems before the Islamic Republic.

The common "analysis" that exists in Iranian opposition media is that Islamic Republic officials are not Persians and they are Arabs and Turks. All of these things (mythologizing the past based off of short reels from state media where it looked aesthetically as they would like it and extrapolating a "good time" to every aspect of life based on it, and that leaders are not native) should sound familiar to people in Turkey. Although we have our own versions of these kind of people, fortunately we have a level of discourse that far transcends these idiotic form of analysis and we have public intellectuals shitting on society left and right, and a good portion of society takes that in stride which is a good sign of mature public discourse.
 

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Compare the Ottomans and the Qajars the Qajars were much more feudal and traditional.

Ataturk had something to work while the Pahlavi dynasty continued the Qajars where they left off with their corrupt feudalism.

Shias tend to be much more conservative. Shia clergy actually hold much more power compared to Sunni. Sunni clergy even if they hold power still do not hold full power in a state.

Shia clergy hold much more power which is a pretty interesting case. Due to the Ayatollahs believing how they are not infallible.
All very true; and look at that all-powerful Shia clergy now; after the inevitable fall of the Islamic Republic in the coming decades, they will all go poof. They have already gone poof in the minds and hearts of people, but they will do so physically (probably on top of long rods of wood) when it falls.
 

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Compare the Ottomans and the Qajars the Qajars were much more feudal and traditional.

Ataturk had something to work while the Pahlavi dynasty continued the Qajars where they left off with their corrupt feudalism.

Shias tend to be much more conservative. Shia clergy actually hold much more power compared to Sunni. Sunni clergy even if they hold power still do not hold full power in a state.

Shia clergy hold much more power which is a pretty interesting case. Due to the Ayatollahs believing how they are not infallible.
Yes you are right.In the Ottoman Empire, religion and state were intertwined and reverends were like government employee.On the other hand Shia clergy, were more autonomous and separated from the state.And they had more influence on the folk separately from the state.

Now when you look at it like this, everything seems so ironic.The fact that the state could not take religion under its jurisdiction in the past in Iran caused the Ayetullahs to be strong enough to take over the state years later :).
 

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They suggest that YPG areas being used for Ukrainian attacks on Russian positions would lead to a clash between Russians and YPG and possibly SAA. Russians hitting YPG while we just sat back and watch would certainly be worthwhile.

Yes, though it seems to also say that Russia has nothing to fear from the SNA and Erdogan, no matter how badly the war in Ukraine goes they will not challenge Russia in Syria. SNA is a paid border guard

Idlib is the logical area for Ukrainian covert operations against Khmeimim Airbase, but that being rejected means there is no utility with the SNA
 

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@dBSPL posted this.

Turkiye warned Haftar and the UAE not to do any funny business in Sudan.

Once a snake always a snake. UAE will never change.
This guy is a complete thug. There's nothing crazy he won't do for whoever pays him. Ottoman 16th/17th century Mediterranean policy was based on the recruitment of these bandits and, if that was not possible, on hanging them on the gallows. Jack Ward aka Yusuf Reis was an extreme example of this. When there was nowhere left to plunder in the Mediterranean, he sailed his ships to Iceland, lol.
 

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Massive news regarding the US leak scandal

Ukraine planned to attack the Russians in Syria , In cooperation with Kurdish SDF !

I don't need to write all the news , but the most important part that Ukraine offered to train SDF on Anti Air Warfare . The Turkish officials warned Ukraine and proposed to help the Syrian Resistance instead of SDF .

Look at this leaked paper , look really carefully for it's interesting information


KBE6HBX7EIOB2NOQGCS6MVJYBE.JPG


news link :

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/20/russia-ukraine-war-syria-attacks/
 

Ryder

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This guy is a complete thug. There's nothing crazy he won't do for whoever pays him. Ottoman 16th/17th century Mediterranean policy was based on the recruitment of these bandits and, if that was not possible, on hanging them on the gallows. Jack Ward aka Yusuf Reis was an extreme example of this. When there was nowhere left to plunder in the Mediterranean, he sailed his ships to Iceland, lol.

Hafter is a thug also an opportunist lets not forget he led Libya to its worse defeat in Chad.

He became a CIA asset then hijacked the Libyan revolution just so could become the next dictator.

His problem with Turks because Turks of Libya from Tripoli and Mistrata reject him.

Benghazi does not like Tripoli and Mistrata.
 

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