TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

TheInsider

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Here we go


US Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Chris Van Hollen: (F-16 sale to Turkey)

I haven't changed my mind yet.

Ankara should at least commit not to use these weapons against NATO members or America's Kurdish allies.

We will have to consider all this going forward.

But I want to say that it is a big step forward that Turkey has finally accepted Sweden as part of NATO.

When you bend over this is what happens.
 

Heartbang

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commit not to use these weapons against NATO members or America's Kurdish allies.
Its impossible to enforce such commitments with platforms like F-16s. If they hadn't kicked us off JSF program, those statements would have more oomph.
I don't think the Turkish Armed Forces lose sleep over these statements. And you shouldn't as well.
 

TheInsider

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Its impossible to enforce such commitments with platforms like F-16s. If they hadn't kicked us off JSF program, those statements would have more oomph.
I don't think the Turkish Armed Forces lose sleep over these statements. And you shouldn't as well.
Yeah sure mate. When the US stops spare parts delivery or sanctions us when TAF flies sorties on the Sea of Islands or Northern Syria, it would be best if you remind us not to lose sleep.
 

AWP

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Yeah sure mate. When the US stops spare parts delivery or sanctions us when TAF flies sorties on the Sea of Islands or Northern Syria, it would be best if you remind us not to lose sleep.


What are you saying is a truth , but If one day the US stopped supplying some parts , Turkey can nationalize it by reserve engineer that part . it's very hard but not impossible . Turkey soon will have the manufacturing ability to produce all Kaan Fighter parts and if you can produce a 5th gen fighter part then sure you can produce some gay 4th gen fighter parts .

It just need a strong leader to take that decision
 
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Heartbang

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What are you saying is a truth , but If one day the US stopped supplying some parts , Turkey can nationalize it by reserve engineer that part . it's very hard but not impossible . Turkey soon will have the manufacturing ability to produce all Kaan Fighter jet and if you can produce a 5th gen fighter part then sure you can produce some gay 4th gen fighter parts .

It just need a strong leader to take that decision
@TheInsider this, but also Turkish AF has been prepared for that reality since 1974. They won't be just OK, sure. But they'll manage. As they did before.
 

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The full article from POLITICO (I highlighted some sections);

F-16s for Turkey aren’t a done deal until these lawmakers say it’s OK. And they’re not sold yet.​


White House officials say they plan to move forward with the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey after Ankara gave the green light for Sweden to join NATO. But congressional gatekeepers are saying it’s not yet a done deal.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s desire to buy new F-16s and upgrade his existing fleet was seen as a leverage point as President Joe Biden pressed the foreign leader to drop his objection to letting Sweden into NATO — which Erdoğan has agreed to do.

But Biden can’t sell the planes without buy-in from the top Republicans and Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs committees. While those members have been reluctant to approve the sale, senators showed signs of a thaw Tuesday, but they said the administration and Erdogan have to do more before they get to “yes.”

One remaining concern for some lawmakers is how Turkey might use any U.S.-provided fighters. Greece accused Turkey of violating its airspace more than 10,000 times last year, and Turkey has threatened areas in Syria held by Kurds the U.S. considers allies.

Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who had previously blocked the fighter transfer to Turkey, said he is in talks with the Biden administration about his hold and that he could make a decision “in the next week,” suggesting he could lift it. He said his longstanding objection over Turkey’s aggression toward Greece and Cyprus still needs to be addressed.

“We’re having conversations with the administration. I still have concerns. I’ve told them about those concerns. If they can find a way to ensure that Turkey’s aggression against its neighbors ceases — which has been great, but that has to be a permanent reality,” he said.

Menendez wants assurances “if there is to be any sales to Turkey, that they will not use them to act in the belligerent way they have against other NATO allies, not just Greece,” he said.
Those guarantees would have to be backstopped by hard power. If the administration beefs up Greece’s military such that it gains a “qualitative military edge” over Turkey, Menendez said “there may be a pathway” to approving the jets.

One element would be to agree to Greece’s request to buy advanced F-35 warplanes, he said, adding that the administration supports that sale but has not formally notified Congress of an approval.

A spokesperson for the State Department declined to comment on any sales before Congress is formally notified.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Jim Risch (R-Idaho) said that, like Menendez, he’s still in talks with the administration about ending Turkey’s belligerence against its neighbors. Monday’s breakthrough on Sweden, to Risch, means talks on the F-16s can begin.

“That issue is resolved now. It’s time to talk about the F-16s, and there’s a path forward there,” Risch said. “I think there’s a lot of moving parts here. Having said that, I don’t think there’s anything that’s not resolvable.”

House Foreign Affairs Chair Mike McCaul (R-Texas), and ranking member Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), who also have the power to block U.S. arms sales abroad, said they have concerns that must be met before they would approve the F-16 sales.

McCaul has said he could be in favor of upgrades for Turkey’s existing F-16s if Greece receives the F-35 and if Washington ensures Greece has a military advantage over Turkey. On Tuesday, he said in an interview that Ankara also needs to start talks with Athens, press Russia to extend a Black Sea grain deal and take other steps.

“I’m optimistic,” McCaul said of Turkey getting approvals to buy F-16s. “The first step was letting Sweden into NATO, and they’ve done that now. The rest are sort of sideline issues.”

Meeks said Tuesday on CNN that his hold remains in effect. While the Sweden breakthrough was a “giant step forward,” Turkey can’t resume its violations of Greek airspace.

“But so far so good. I’m seeing signs over the last several months that Turkey has kept its word as far as intrusions and flyovers of its neighbors,” Meeks said. “I need to have further dialogue and conversation but I think that things are moving along quite quickly and quite well.”


While the four committee leads have the power to block the sale, Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) has been an influential opponent of F-16s for Turkey regardless of whether it relents on Sweden.

On Tuesday, he said he hadn’t changed his mind yet and that Ankara would at least have to pledge not to use them against NATO members or America’s Kurdish allies.

“We’re gonna have to look at all this as part of the mix going forward, but I do want to say it’s a big step forward, obviously, that Turkey finally agreed that Sweden could be part of NATO,” he said.




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These impertinent stipulations cannot be forced upon a sovereign nation. Just make a deal for the engines and be done with it. $20 billion would go a long way towards maturing our indigenous programs. Besides, we would keep the valuable dollars and not exacerbate our current FX crunch.
 

Baryshx

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No matter what Reis does- it is always a master move and a huge win... Damn, I love Turkish medias. :D

ps Today Erdo says one thing and he is absolutely right. Tomorrow he makes an 180 degrees turn and he is right once again. Love it. :D
Only the brain-impaired believe this. The EU membership nonsense is a bait to deflect the target. It is an attempt to soften and prepare Turkish public opinion for Swedish approval. But it looks like Devlet Bahçeli will teach AKP a lesson.

Has Türkiye just remembered that it is the biggest trading partner of the EU and the US? You are dependent on these countries, you cannot do anything. You must first gain economic and political independence.

We are facing the worst government ever, past, present and future.
 
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GoatsMilk

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Only the brain-impaired believe this. The EU membership nonsense is a bait to deflect the target. It is an attempt to soften and prepare Turkish public opinion for Swedish approval. But it looks like Devlet Bahçeli will teach AKP a lesson.

Has Türkiye just remembered that it is the biggest trading partner of the EU and the US? You are dependent on these countries, you cannot do anything. You must first gain economic and political independence.

We are facing the worst government ever, past, present and future.

How can we win when everyone thinks losing is winning?

We have seen constant diplomatic and political failures from this government. There was a time when they used to hide all this failure behind the economy, but the economy is shit and every month it gets worse and worse.

We are constantly losing, but the people think they are winning? To me a nation that thinks that way eventually ends herself.

So we took all the hits, all the negative media and in the end he capitulated like a coward again. Mashallah brothers and sisters this Islamic ummah business yet again is defeated by those who left the medieval mindset behind a long time ago.

One day people will look back at these years and wonder what madness came over the nation that such frauds and charlatans were able to maintain themselves as overlords of the nation for so long.
 

dBSPL

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Some Akp MPs and even some former ministers (Varank for example) have announced that they will vote no for Sweden. At first, I likened it to the failed March 1 decree process, but it is more like a collusion. The impression is that the presidency is not putting up much resistance to the US face-saving in Vilnus, but is following a strategy similar to that of the US' WH-to-Congress by throwing the ball to the parliament. Kind of good- cop bad cop policy. My understanding is that the US and Turkiye are countries that absolutely do not trust each other anymore. "- You have to give first, -no you." TR has good reasons for this, even need using much sharper language. But on many issues our tail is in the hands of the US. This makes this kind of political gamesmanship inevitable. In the end, I think the decision will be taken in October, maybe at the end of October. Within these 3 months we should see progress on some key issues and the formal process should start, especially with regard to the needs of the air force.
 
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Baryshx

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Türkiye should postpone the Swedish membership talks and wait for the US election results in November. The situation/thinking of the US will not change, but if the government changes in the US, something can be done about F35-F16 and embargoes.
 

GoatsMilk

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Some Akp MPs and even some former ministers (Varank for example) have announced that they will vote no for Sweden. At first, I likened it to the failed March 1 decree process, but it is more like a collusion. The impression is that the presidency is not putting up much resistance to the US face-saving in Vilnus, but is following a strategy similar to that of the US' WH-to-Congress by throwing the ball to the parliament. Kind of good- cop bad cop policy. My understanding is that the US and Turkiye are countries that absolutely do not trust each other anymore. "- You have to give first, -no you." TR has good reasons for this, even need using much sharper language. But on many issues our tail is in the hands of the US. This makes this kind of political gamesmanship inevitable. In the end, I think the decision will be taken in October, maybe at the end of October. Within these 3 months we should see progress on some key issues and the formal process should start, especially with regard to the needs of the air force.

When the process is complete sweden will get it all and Turkiye will have been dragged through the mud. Expect erdogan to mention a few billion dollars for refugees as another demand that he doesnt really demand. Like EU membership he will throw it out there for the international media to pick up on and further use it as a propaganda tool to smash over Turkish Islamist heads. But then again all of these political islamists come from minority groups who have a complex against the Turk and despise the Turks, so to me they do this on purpose. Destroy the Turkish image internationally and as you destroy it invariably raises the profile of the minorities who are against Turks like PKK Kurds.
 

TheInsider

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@TheInsider this, but also Turkish AF has been prepared for that reality since 1974. They won't be just OK, sure. But they'll manage. As they did before.
If we are prepared we don't need to approve Sweden.

We should hold a referendum for Sweden, this is the best answer for everyone. When those pink-ass EU leaders see %80-90 nay, they will realize one thing or 2
 

Heartbang

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We should hold a referendum for Sweden, this is the best answer for everyone. When those pink-ass EU leaders see %80-90 nay, they will realize one thing or 2
I like the way you think, but referendums can be open to external manipulation. The current way of doing things is fine.
 

Zafer

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We are not getting into a deal where we are not getting anything.
We can't do a take-it-or-leave-it deal.
We are doing an auction-style deal where we maximize our gains.
 

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U.S. wouldn't care even if Turkey didn't let Sweden in (as they have said they will form a bilateral security pack with Sweden). They just want to rub it in that they will get their way no matter what, since they have been saying since day 1 that they know Sweden will join NATO, effectively communicating that Turkey will cave in and their opposition doesn't matter (and another way they have rubbed this in recently was the US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller reiterating yesterday that SDF is a "strategic" partner and they will continue to be a partner in the future). Even the fact that Turkey has to beg for F-16s and this option is dangled in front of Turkey as a treat for accepting their demands while Greece, other NATO countries and Israel are getting F-35s left and right, has been a humiliating reminder of Turkey's status inside NATO and on the international stage. None of these games, i.e. the tit-for-tat of F-16s for Swedish accession, should have been played this publicly in front of the international gaze as they look on Turkey beg for F-16s while others get F-35s, damaging our country's image worldwide yet again, just to be able to use it for domestic propaganda purposes. If you were going to beg and cave like this, why buy useless S-400s, which will be even more useless from now on with sanctions against Russia. Did you actually believe your own delusions about West's decline?
 

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Did you actually believe your own delusions about West's decline?

Those aren't delusions.
It is just that, West's decline is not what people think in their mind when hear about the term or how fast it would be.
 

Ryder

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EU membership will always be religious and racial to be honest.

I mean Bosnians, Albanians and Kosovars are white and European even more than Italy, Greece and Spain.

But still wont accept them due to Islam and their associations with Turks.

They are not accepted as Europeans but more like accepted as Turks due to their religion.

Turkiye needs to forge an independant destiny and stop begging for EU membership.

Our ancestors would be spitting at us. Europeans have been our enemies for centuries just like the Russians.
 

Rooxbar

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Those aren't delusions.
It is just that, West's decline is not what people think in their mind when hear about the term or how fast it would be.
The West is like that runner who false starts 2 days before the starter pistol shot. It can start running back and you will still be miles behind.
 

Heartbang

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EU membership will always be religious and racial to be honest.

I mean Bosnians, Albanians and Kosovars are white and European even more than Italy, Greece and Spain.

But still wont accept them due to Islam and their associations with Turks.

They are not accepted as Europeans but more like accepted as Turks due to their religion.

Turkiye needs to forge an independant destiny and stop begging for EU membership.

Our ancestors would be spitting at us. Europeans have been our enemies for centuries just like the Russians.
Gotta diversify the export relationships as well. Having EU and US as your #1 and #2 biggest trade partners respectively is turning into a liability.
 

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