TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Rooxbar]

@Rooxbar you are gonna love this.

I've learnt quite a bit about supply lines and geographical factoids from his two books, but I cannot imagine how a well-read and smart person would do the kind of overarching generic speculations that he does (probably trying to appeal to a certain, simple-minded, audience).

It has been apparent that he doesn't know much about most of the countries that he speculates about. The point about demographics in Israel is obvious and oft-repeated (but the decline of Ashkenazis who brought the scientific culture of the fin de siecle Central Europe to Israel is a much more dire crisis for Israel as is apparent from the decline of the quality of their human capital, both in propaganda and intelligence fronts, notwithstanding whatever "innovation index" or "startup ecosystem ranking" some retard or retards in suits come up with), but the rest is just mumbo-jumbo honestly.

He talks about U.S. intentions similar to "mommy's special" conspiracy theorists: as if U.S. is just this one very consistent and determined guy who makes 100 year plans, doesn't change them ever, is immune to the flux of the torrents of history, and omnipotent in applying this plan.

A realist will argue that an increasingly domineering China in East Asia will force an Asian pivot from U.S. whether they like it or not, but this attitude (carrying the unwarranted misnomer of "realism") is akin to the incapacity of rational agent theory of economics. States also can be irrational, hesitant and indecisive; and states have shown these tendencies more than they have been rational throughout history (this is realism, not some general social law these "realists" are trying to come up with); this is why whole nations, ethnicities and long-standing empires can disappear and have done so. There are of course other exogenous covariates, most prominently environmental ones, but this doesn't rule out the effect or reality of wrong decisions. So there's no guarantee that U.S. will leave Middle-East to its own devices, and I think the assumption that it can is naive and casts aside the dynamics and realities of politicking in U.S. (casting aside realities on the ground when it comes to things other than supply lines and geographical factors is Zeihan's specialty it seems.)

imo, U.S. will support and back Israel until the costs of doing so overrule the influence of Jewish magnates in finance, politics, media and entertainment; the breaking point will come much later than it did for Apartheid South Africa due to the lobbying influence of wealthy and influential Jews, but it will come eventually as those influences are also on the downturn (but the trend is slow and the hardest thing for people to notice are the slow trends which they are living through). I think the costs overruling the Jewish influence in the west is inevitable also partially because of the dynamics of hatred spiral and catch-22 that the relation between Israelis and Muslims in middle-east has devolved into. Zeihan's problem is assuming the staticity of the current political order in middle-east. You cannot assume staticity in politics ever. And when the status-quo changes it tries to allign with public opinion more than the previous order, because that's why it's changing and it also seeks and needs legitimacy more.

 

[what]

Guys, this is more a football discussion than geopolitics and we have spend the last pages discussing football rules.

If you have anything to say about the geopolitic implications of that event (which there are none as far as anyone can tell), please feel free to share. Otherwise, please take it to the Off-topic posts.

ALL OFF TOPICS DELETED!!!

 

[BaburKhan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1742238594910081327

A Turkish Company bought the Harbour of Takoradi in Ghana, this Harbor give Access to Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to Atlantic Ocean

 

[what]

The company bought a controlling stake of 35%.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/yilport-takes-controlling-stake-ghanas-takoradi-port-operator-2023-11-02/

 

[Sanchez]

"Our exports may not have increased much on an annual and monthly basis, but our exports to some countries are experiencing large increases.

For example ISRAEL... What did Trade Minister Ömer Bolat say? "Since October 7, our bilateral trade with Israel has decreased by more than 50 percent compared to the same period last year." November 7, 2023

What did Ömer Bolat say in his next statement?: "Turkey-Israel foreign trade has decreased by 48 percent since October. Our goods landing at the country's ports are actually delivered to Palestine." December 17, 2023

Ömer Bolat says one thing, but the data released by his own Ministry says the opposite. Our exports to Israel increased from 319.5 million dollars in November to 430.6 million dollars in December. The rate of increase is 34.8 percent.

Yes, in December, our exports to Israel exploded. This figure is even higher than the July exports of 408.3 million dollars before the October 7 attacks. In other words, there is really a great success!"

İsrail’e ihracat yüzde 35 arttı - İbrahim Kahveci

Aralık 2023 ayı ihracat rakamlarını Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan açıkladı. Aralık 2022’de 22.9 milyar dolar olan ihracat Aralık 2023’de...

www.karar.com

Gotta hand it to Erdogan gov, noone on earth can spin this as good as they do. Turkey Israel trade is back to pre Oct 7 levels.

 

[Sanchez]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1743364052925972775

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1743367277255262278

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1743363831105986952

She will probably the last UN special envoy to Cyprus judging by the MFA communique.

 

[Zafer]

The F-35 is to secure TR against Iran or Russia, or some low threat militias and non-state actors.

There isn't a significant conflict of interest between TR and USA, it is between AKP and USA.

From Erdogan supporting the Muslim brotherhood and painting the US and enemy from his early days is how we got to today. By acting like Iran and helping Iran avoid sanctions.

How about hydrocarbon rights in our EEZ? Amassing of terrorists at our southern borders and playing nation-making games. Promissed land and all.

 

[Bogeyman]

The issue that challenges us today is that we want to build a 5th generation turbofan engine. In the Kaan project, if there is an embargo tomorrow and we cannot buy an engine, even in the worst case scenario, we will give up making a 5th generation turbofan and make an engine at the level of the F-110 and use it.

But no one in this forum can even imagine that we can go beyond the limits drawn for us with the F-135 engine. The fact that we will produce parts for F-135s here has no importance for us other than financial issues. Because no one can think that the F-35 fighter jet can be nationalized. So what's the point of insisting on this so much?
The F-35 project means that the USA is taking the steering wheel and being a partner in our path to independence in the defense industry. I think it is quite obvious that the USA has not wanted us to stand on our own feet.


As for EF-2000 purchases;
Today, we have much healthier relations with the British-Spanish duopoly than with the USA. They do not impose on us like the USA.
It is possible that we will shake their alliance with the Germans for economic reasons. Even in the worst-case scenario, we would expect far-right extremists to become partners in power in Germany and that's how we buy the planes. I read that far-rightists are more moderate regarding defense purchases against Turkey.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1733216219816247679

If we exceed the 20+20 purchases, it is possible that they will share the source codes with us and allow localization.
Therefore, I hope that you will not compare the dependency that may arise in the F-35 project with the purchases we will make to ensure technological balance for the next 15 years.

 

[Bozan]

How about hydrocarbon rights in our EEZ? Amassing of terrorists at our southern borders and playing nation-making games. Promissed land and all.

What does the US have to do with the EEZ?

The refugees Erdogan has entered into the country in millions is more of a threat than the whack-a-mole we play with the PKK and our drones. The US isn't doing any nation-building. If they were, the Barzanis would be independent by now. Their only goal is to keep resources out of the hands of the Iranians.

 

[Zafer]

What does the US have to do with the EEZ?

The US is the one that pushes Greece to claim excessive coastal rights that will damage Turkish rights in the region, again amassing American forces in Thrace.

 

[Sanchez]

Today, we have much healthier relations with the British-Spanish duopoly than with the USA. They do not impose on us like the USA.

I mostly agree with you on the post, except this part. They don't now, because they don't have a reason to, yet. A far right Germany will still be Germany.

And unlike F-35, which we were a part of and had some say in the project, on EF-2000, we will just be a customer, with no say whatsoever. UK, a tier 1 partner didn't utter a single word of support when US booted us from JSF. I'm all for sharing the risk in different ventures and a proponent on buying EF-2000s. We act like we are free from outside bounds, when we are most definitely are not. This is a damaging mindset, it has damaged our interests immensely in the last 15 years. We are heavily dependent on US and, UK and EU, politically, economics and militarily, until we aren't. Economically, we probably will never be. Acting like we are free from their whims when we aren't continue to hurt us.

 

[Sanchez]

The US is the one that pushes Greece to claim excessive coastal rights that will damage Turkish rights in the region, again amassing American forces in Thrace.

Greece has been pressing for this for the last 50 years. Their biggest current supporters in the endeavor is not US, who is only interested in stability it can control. Their supporters are Germany, France and Italy. Because Greek and South Cypriot EEZ is European EEZ. US base in Thrace is a logistical hub to project power to Romania and Poland because we do not want to be a part of their logistical plans for Eastern Europe and they don't want to include us in the future any longer. US is trying to rebuild the southern bulwark in Bulgaria, Romania and even Greece against Russia, but they are not chiefly interested in any EEZ or territorial waters.

Yet there is still great danger from the US soldiers being in Greece in nearly every base we would hit. What do we do when 5 years later Greeks go at it and claim 12 miles? Hit Greek AFB's with Cenks while Americans inside them? Good luck! This is where we are right now. Situation with Greece cannot be left to militaries to duke it out, because we are isolated. Greeks won't sit still, they will push. They will push us to fire first, which will lead to us losing big.

"The statements of the Greek Defense Minister; declaration of the obvious, their stance is clear, there is no change in their thesis

- We do not discuss the sovereignty of the islands, we have not been informed about the gray zones
(Does not accept our view on islands/islets whose sovereignty has not been transferred to Greece by treaties)
- The inhabitants of the islands should feel safe, there has been no demand from Turkey to disarm the islands (ignoring or disregarding the issue that is constantly raised)
- We will look at the issue of Maritime Jurisdiction later (maintaining the status quo is in favor of the SCGA and Greece)

If you have weak economic and political power among the elements of national power, you cannot be effective in the international arena, no matter how strong your military power is. You do whatever they dictate to you.
Occasionally, you make moves for domestic politics that are not result-oriented, and then you step back. This makes you inconsistent and unstable in foreign policy."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1743588094635287000

 

[Zafer]

Greece has been pressing for this for the last 50 years. Their biggest current supporters in the endeavor is not US, who is only interested in stability it can control. Their supporters are Germany, France and Italy. Because Greek and South Cypriot EEZ is European EEZ. US base in Thrace is a logistical hub to project power to Romania and Poland because we do not want to be a part of their logistical plans for Eastern Europe and they don't want to include us in the future any longer. US is trying to rebuild the southern bulwark in Bulgaria, Romania and even Greece against Russia, but they are not chiefly interested in any EEZ or territorial waters.

Yet there is still great danger from the US soldiers being in Greece in nearly every base we would hit. What do we do when 5 years later Greeks go at it and claim 12 miles? Hit Greek AFB's with Cenks while Americans inside them? Good luck!

While Russia is the weakling it is now it is an excessive move by the Americans if they purely intend to go against Russia. Any force that stationes close to us is a force built against us. Make no mistake the US is behind every calamity that has beffalen on Türkiye.

 

[Bogeyman]

I mostly agree with you on the post, except this part. They don't now, because they don't have a reason to, yet. A far right Germany will still be Germany.

And unlike F-35, which we were a part of and had some say in the project, on EF-2000, we will just be a customer, with no say whatsoever. UK, a tier 1 partner didn't utter a single word of support when US booted us from JSF. I'm all for sharing the risk in different ventures and a proponent on buying EF-2000s. We act like we are free from outside bounds, when we are most definitely are not. This is a damaging mindset, it has damaged our interests immensely in the last 15 years. We are heavily dependent on US and, UK and EU, politically, economics and militarily, until we aren't. Economically, we probably will never be. Acting like we are free from their whims when we aren't continue to hurt us.

If the far right quickly comes to power in both the USA and the EU countries, the order as we know it will completely change.

- Europe will definitely arm itself very quickly.
- Far-rightists will do everything to end the European Union.

Therefore, if we consider these 2 facts;

- There is a possibility of improvement in military relations if there is no direct opposition to our interests.
- The possibility of dissolution of the EU would affect us greatly economically. However, this becomes an opportunity to increase diversity in market shares in our economy in the medium-long term.

 

[Bogeyman]

If the far right quickly comes to power in both the USA and the EU countries, the order as we know it will completely change.

- Europe will definitely arm itself very quickly.
- Far-rightists will do everything to end the European Union.

Therefore, if we consider these 2 facts;

- There is a possibility of improvement in military relations if there is no direct opposition to our interests.
- The possibility of dissolution of the EU would affect us greatly economically. However, this becomes an opportunity to increase diversity in market shares in our economy in the medium-long term.

By the way, I think that if the EU disintegrates economically, welfare will decline and this will cause social chaos in EU countries. This will initiate a reverse brain drain. And today we may be faced with a very different version of the refugee agreement. The return of all the Muslim population, especially the Turks, to us will begin either due to the pressure of those countries or because people do not want to live there anymore.

We experienced a small-scale version of this in France last year. People started to migrate to Turkey after the bans on Islam.

This may be my prediction for the EU in the next 7-8 years.
Of course, if we see a Taiwan war break out before then, we may encounter a very different picture.

 

[Kitra]

I think that if the EU disintegrates economically, welfare will decline

There is no if they will decline. The demographic situation in all of Europe ensures that there will be a decline. Nothing can save EU when Germany goes into the demographic decline. Last time PIIGS got in problem, they were saved by Germans. Who is going to save PIIGS when Germans goes into a decline. The only solution is 1 million immigrants every year primerily from Africa and Middle East, that in its turn will feed the right wing extremists.

 

[BaburKhan]

If the far right quickly comes to power in both the USA and the EU countries, the order as we know it will completely change.

- Europe will definitely arm itself very quickly.
- Far-rightists will do everything to end the European Union.

Therefore, if we consider these 2 facts;

- There is a possibility of improvement in military relations if there is no direct opposition to our interests.
- The possibility of dissolution of the EU would affect us greatly economically. However, this becomes an opportunity to increase diversity in market shares in our economy in the medium-long term.

I expect nothing good from the far right for their foreign Policy towards the Muslim World. It will change nothing only if Muslims leave Europe. The Geostragic Importance of Turkey and Middle East will be the same They want also not to see Muslims will become Competitor.

 

[Bogeyman]

I expect nothing good from the far right for their foreign Policy towards the Muslim World. It will change nothing only if Muslims leave Europe. The Geostragic Importance of Turkey and Middle East will be the same They want also not to see Muslims will become Competitor.

If we take Trump's example, even though the extreme right-wingers are devoted to destroying Muslims to their core, they emphasize pragmatism in their own interests.

In this respect, Trump's defense procurement negotiations with the Arabs may be an obvious example of this.

If right-wing extremists in Germany are anything like Trump, we might see something similar.

 

[what]

I agree with @Bogeyman, not that I hope its going to happen, but right wing usually does also imply letting the companies do whatever they want as long as it brings in currency.

Also, I think countries and even right wing populists very well know how to differentiate between a migration problem at home and foreign policy.

 

[uçuyorum]

We should be aware of increasing concentrated effort to attack and try to degilitimize Montreux Convention over the minehunter donation by UK. I don't know if it's related to SSIK decisions on increasing the budget for Navy expansion and modernization. I'm almost certain it will be used as a preface to push Greece's 12 mile agenda and create chaos in Aegean and Black Sea and to further hurt Turkey. If timed together with an attack from Syrian side as well the results will be devastating for us, they might even try to incite internal conflict to prevent our ability to effectively respond.