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TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

Zafer

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The F-35 is to secure TR against Iran or Russia, or some low threat militias and non-state actors.

There isn't a significant conflict of interest between TR and USA, it is between AKP and USA.

From Erdogan supporting the Muslim brotherhood and painting the US and enemy from his early days is how we got to today. By acting like Iran and helping Iran avoid sanctions.
How about hydrocarbon rights in our EEZ? Amassing of terrorists at our southern borders and playing nation-making games. Promissed land and all.
 

Bogeyman 

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The issue that challenges us today is that we want to build a 5th generation turbofan engine. In the Kaan project, if there is an embargo tomorrow and we cannot buy an engine, even in the worst case scenario, we will give up making a 5th generation turbofan and make an engine at the level of the F-110 and use it.

But no one in this forum can even imagine that we can go beyond the limits drawn for us with the F-135 engine. The fact that we will produce parts for F-135s here has no importance for us other than financial issues. Because no one can think that the F-35 fighter jet can be nationalized. So what's the point of insisting on this so much?
The F-35 project means that the USA is taking the steering wheel and being a partner in our path to independence in the defense industry. I think it is quite obvious that the USA has not wanted us to stand on our own feet.


As for EF-2000 purchases;
Today, we have much healthier relations with the British-Spanish duopoly than with the USA. They do not impose on us like the USA.
It is possible that we will shake their alliance with the Germans for economic reasons. Even in the worst-case scenario, we would expect far-right extremists to become partners in power in Germany and that's how we buy the planes. I read that far-rightists are more moderate regarding defense purchases against Turkey.

If we exceed the 20+20 purchases, it is possible that they will share the source codes with us and allow localization.
Therefore, I hope that you will not compare the dependency that may arise in the F-35 project with the purchases we will make to ensure technological balance for the next 15 years.
 

Bozan

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How about hydrocarbon rights in our EEZ? Amassing of terrorists at our southern borders and playing nation-making games. Promissed land and all.

What does the US have to do with the EEZ?

The refugees Erdogan has entered into the country in millions is more of a threat than the whack-a-mole we play with the PKK and our drones. The US isn't doing any nation-building. If they were, the Barzanis would be independent by now. Their only goal is to keep resources out of the hands of the Iranians.
 

Sanchez

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Today, we have much healthier relations with the British-Spanish duopoly than with the USA. They do not impose on us like the USA.
I mostly agree with you on the post, except this part. They don't now, because they don't have a reason to, yet. A far right Germany will still be Germany.

And unlike F-35, which we were a part of and had some say in the project, on EF-2000, we will just be a customer, with no say whatsoever. UK, a tier 1 partner didn't utter a single word of support when US booted us from JSF. I'm all for sharing the risk in different ventures and a proponent on buying EF-2000s. We act like we are free from outside bounds, when we are most definitely are not. This is a damaging mindset, it has damaged our interests immensely in the last 15 years. We are heavily dependent on US and, UK and EU, politically, economics and militarily, until we aren't. Economically, we probably will never be. Acting like we are free from their whims when we aren't continue to hurt us.
 

Sanchez

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The US is the one that pushes Greece to claim excessive coastal rights that will damage Turkish rights in the region, again amassing American forces in Thrace.
Greece has been pressing for this for the last 50 years. Their biggest current supporters in the endeavor is not US, who is only interested in stability it can control. Their supporters are Germany, France and Italy. Because Greek and South Cypriot EEZ is European EEZ. US base in Thrace is a logistical hub to project power to Romania and Poland because we do not want to be a part of their logistical plans for Eastern Europe and they don't want to include us in the future any longer. US is trying to rebuild the southern bulwark in Bulgaria, Romania and even Greece against Russia, but they are not chiefly interested in any EEZ or territorial waters.

Yet there is still great danger from the US soldiers being in Greece in nearly every base we would hit. What do we do when 5 years later Greeks go at it and claim 12 miles? Hit Greek AFB's with Cenks while Americans inside them? Good luck! This is where we are right now. Situation with Greece cannot be left to militaries to duke it out, because we are isolated. Greeks won't sit still, they will push. They will push us to fire first, which will lead to us losing big.

"The statements of the Greek Defense Minister; declaration of the obvious, their stance is clear, there is no change in their thesis

- We do not discuss the sovereignty of the islands, we have not been informed about the gray zones
(Does not accept our view on islands/islets whose sovereignty has not been transferred to Greece by treaties)
- The inhabitants of the islands should feel safe, there has been no demand from Turkey to disarm the islands (ignoring or disregarding the issue that is constantly raised)
- We will look at the issue of Maritime Jurisdiction later (maintaining the status quo is in favor of the SCGA and Greece)

If you have weak economic and political power among the elements of national power, you cannot be effective in the international arena, no matter how strong your military power is. You do whatever they dictate to you.
Occasionally, you make moves for domestic politics that are not result-oriented, and then you step back. This makes you inconsistent and unstable in foreign policy."
 
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Zafer

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Greece has been pressing for this for the last 50 years. Their biggest current supporters in the endeavor is not US, who is only interested in stability it can control. Their supporters are Germany, France and Italy. Because Greek and South Cypriot EEZ is European EEZ. US base in Thrace is a logistical hub to project power to Romania and Poland because we do not want to be a part of their logistical plans for Eastern Europe and they don't want to include us in the future any longer. US is trying to rebuild the southern bulwark in Bulgaria, Romania and even Greece against Russia, but they are not chiefly interested in any EEZ or territorial waters.

Yet there is still great danger from the US soldiers being in Greece in nearly every base we would hit. What do we do when 5 years later Greeks go at it and claim 12 miles? Hit Greek AFB's with Cenks while Americans inside them? Good luck!
While Russia is the weakling it is now it is an excessive move by the Americans if they purely intend to go against Russia. Any force that stationes close to us is a force built against us. Make no mistake the US is behind every calamity that has beffalen on Türkiye.
 

Bogeyman 

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I mostly agree with you on the post, except this part. They don't now, because they don't have a reason to, yet. A far right Germany will still be Germany.

And unlike F-35, which we were a part of and had some say in the project, on EF-2000, we will just be a customer, with no say whatsoever. UK, a tier 1 partner didn't utter a single word of support when US booted us from JSF. I'm all for sharing the risk in different ventures and a proponent on buying EF-2000s. We act like we are free from outside bounds, when we are most definitely are not. This is a damaging mindset, it has damaged our interests immensely in the last 15 years. We are heavily dependent on US and, UK and EU, politically, economics and militarily, until we aren't. Economically, we probably will never be. Acting like we are free from their whims when we aren't continue to hurt us.
If the far right quickly comes to power in both the USA and the EU countries, the order as we know it will completely change.

- Europe will definitely arm itself very quickly.
- Far-rightists will do everything to end the European Union.

Therefore, if we consider these 2 facts;

- There is a possibility of improvement in military relations if there is no direct opposition to our interests.
- The possibility of dissolution of the EU would affect us greatly economically. However, this becomes an opportunity to increase diversity in market shares in our economy in the medium-long term.
 

Bogeyman 

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If the far right quickly comes to power in both the USA and the EU countries, the order as we know it will completely change.

- Europe will definitely arm itself very quickly.
- Far-rightists will do everything to end the European Union.

Therefore, if we consider these 2 facts;

- There is a possibility of improvement in military relations if there is no direct opposition to our interests.
- The possibility of dissolution of the EU would affect us greatly economically. However, this becomes an opportunity to increase diversity in market shares in our economy in the medium-long term.
By the way, I think that if the EU disintegrates economically, welfare will decline and this will cause social chaos in EU countries. This will initiate a reverse brain drain. And today we may be faced with a very different version of the refugee agreement. The return of all the Muslim population, especially the Turks, to us will begin either due to the pressure of those countries or because people do not want to live there anymore.

We experienced a small-scale version of this in France last year. People started to migrate to Turkey after the bans on Islam.

This may be my prediction for the EU in the next 7-8 years.
Of course, if we see a Taiwan war break out before then, we may encounter a very different picture.
 

Kitra

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I think that if the EU disintegrates economically, welfare will decline
There is no if they will decline. The demographic situation in all of Europe ensures that there will be a decline. Nothing can save EU when Germany goes into the demographic decline. Last time PIIGS got in problem, they were saved by Germans. Who is going to save PIIGS when Germans goes into a decline. The only solution is 1 million immigrants every year primerily from Africa and Middle East, that in its turn will feed the right wing extremists.
 

KhanOfEurasia

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If the far right quickly comes to power in both the USA and the EU countries, the order as we know it will completely change.

- Europe will definitely arm itself very quickly.
- Far-rightists will do everything to end the European Union.

Therefore, if we consider these 2 facts;

- There is a possibility of improvement in military relations if there is no direct opposition to our interests.
- The possibility of dissolution of the EU would affect us greatly economically. However, this becomes an opportunity to increase diversity in market shares in our economy in the medium-long term.

I expect nothing good from the far right for their foreign Policy towards the Muslim World. It will change nothing only if Muslims leave Europe. The Geostragic Importance of Turkey and Middle East will be the same They want also not to see Muslims will become Competitor.
 

Bogeyman 

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I expect nothing good from the far right for their foreign Policy towards the Muslim World. It will change nothing only if Muslims leave Europe. The Geostragic Importance of Turkey and Middle East will be the same They want also not to see Muslims will become Competitor.
If we take Trump's example, even though the extreme right-wingers are devoted to destroying Muslims to their core, they emphasize pragmatism in their own interests.

In this respect, Trump's defense procurement negotiations with the Arabs may be an obvious example of this.

If right-wing extremists in Germany are anything like Trump, we might see something similar.
 

what

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I agree with @Bogeyman, not that I hope its going to happen, but right wing usually does also imply letting the companies do whatever they want as long as it brings in currency.

Also, I think countries and even right wing populists very well know how to differentiate between a migration problem at home and foreign policy.
 

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We should be aware of increasing concentrated effort to attack and try to degilitimize Montreux Convention over the minehunter donation by UK. I don't know if it's related to SSIK decisions on increasing the budget for Navy expansion and modernization. I'm almost certain it will be used as a preface to push Greece's 12 mile agenda and create chaos in Aegean and Black Sea and to further hurt Turkey. If timed together with an attack from Syrian side as well the results will be devastating for us, they might even try to incite internal conflict to prevent our ability to effectively respond.
 

uçuyorum

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You might notice in media and twitter they try to misrepresent issue in many ways, including these ships are UK and UK is not belligerent( ships are already commissioned by Ukraine), calling them non warships (they are armed with 30mm cannons and other weapons and they are in navy inventory, how is that not warship?), claiming they are defensive not offensive (no such disctinction in Montreux), and other excuses. We should hit back with pointing Greece's and Southern Cyprus' ongoing facilitation of Russian ships trade and helping them bypass embargoes.
 

GoatsMilk

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right wing, left wing it won't make much difference when it comes to Turkey. The agenda is consistent, only small details change. The agenda against Turkey in syria for example didnt change when obama came in after bush and didnt change trump came in and hasnt changed with bidan. Right wing, then left wing, then right, then left wing didnt change anything for us.

Like Malcolm X said about the difference, both are the same just the democrats smile at you while their murdering you, the right wing just tell you they hate you before murdering you.

I remember when it looked like Turks were going to go into Syria, this photo was put out by the left wing, oh yeah it was titled phone call with the president of Turkey or something like that.

obama_2300408b.jpg


Then when erdogan finally was going to in on the east, the american military threatened that our military would become legitimate targets. Trump sent this letter.

962.jpg


"wrong side of history and going down in history as a devil" is basically a similar threat to doing to him what they did to saddam or ghaddafi. What for to protect marxist terrorists? Threaten to destroy your nation for these western proxy pigs?

I'm long past the tricks of the Hegelian dialectic, all i pay attention to when it comes to politians is what they do. Nothing else, not what say, not what side of the political spectrum they claim to be on. Just what they do and what they have been doing has been consistant against Turkey across the decades.

The more we fail the more aggressive they have become. For example they got their kurdistan in iraq and they got it in syria, now the narrative in all the western media has shifted in unison to claim that Turks are genociding Kurds. Because naturally they want to take a chunk of Turkey to and give it to the PKK. If you keep failing that will happen.

Wasted so many years doing nothing syria, they made the same mistake with the greeks, wasted decades and your enemies have entrenched themselves in those lands who will prostitute themselves to anyone as long as they are against the Turks.

On a side note, maybe one the few things erdogan did correctly was to take Trumps letter and wipe his arse with it and move in. Each time you moved into Syria you incrementally rolled back the agenda against our nation and the region. Logic dictates take control of northern syria and iraq and their agenda in that area is destroyed.
 
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Kartal1

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right wing, left wing it won't make much difference when it comes to Turkey. The agenda is consistent, only small details change. The agenda against Turkey in syria for example didnt change when obama came in after bush and didnt change trump came in and hasnt changed with bidan. Right wing, then left wing, then right, then left wing didnt change anything for us.

Like Malcolm X said about the difference, both are the same just the democrats smile at you while their murdering you, the right wing just tell you they hate you before murdering you.

I remember when it looked like Turks were going to go into Syria, this photo was put out by the left wing, oh yeah it was titled phone call with the president of Turkey or something like that.

obama_2300408b.jpg


Then when erdogan finally was going to in on the east, the american military threatened that our military would become legitimate targets. Trump sent this letter.

962.jpg


"wrong side of history and going down in history as a devil" is basically a similar threat to doing to him what they did to saddam or ghaddafi. What for to protect marxist terrorists? Threaten to destroy your nation for these western proxy pigs?

I'm long past the tricks of the Hegelian dialectic, all i pay attention to when it comes to politians is what they do. Nothing else, not what say, not what side of the political spectrum they claim to be on. Just what they do and what they have been doing has been consistant against Turkey across the decades.

The more we fail the more aggressive they have become. For example they got their kurdistan in iraq and they got it in syria, now the narrative in all the western media has shifted in unison to claim that Turks are genociding Kurds. Because naturally they want to take a chunk of Turkey to and give it to the PKK. If you keep failing that will happen.

Wasted so many years doing nothing syria, they made the same mistake with the greeks, wasted decades and your enemies have entrenched themselves in those lands who will prostitute themselves to anyone as long as they are against the Turks.

On a side note, maybe one the few things erdogan did correctly was to take Trumps letter and wipe his arse with it and move in. Each time you moved into Syria you incrementally rolled back the agenda against our nation and the region. Logic dictates take control of northern syria and iraq and their agenda in that area is destroyed.
As much as the US has their Kurdistan in Iraq, we have it as well. The KRG in Iraq and the autonomous area in Syria are very different. People see them as the same because there are Kurds involved and there is "Kurdistan" in the name while this is wrong. People think that Kurdistan can exist without the opinion of Turkiye while they can't realize that the artery that is feeding the KRG (the most stable and widely recognized Kurdish authority) is Turkiye. If Turkiye decides that there will be no more prosperity in KRG their game ends. Who will support them and how? From which logistic corridor? There is no other way to exist in this region than to cooperate with Turkiye. The ones that can't realize this will simply perish like the ones before them.

While KRG in Iraq is established as a respected and recognized autonomous area in Iraq by everybody except Iran, the situation is Syria is not like this. Also the ones in Syria don't have even a small part of the structural stability of the KRG regime in Iraq. Don't be fooled by the shiny weapons, multicam uniforms and US soldiers posing together with them. The SDF and the whole Kurdish authority over the north of Syria is so fragile that even a small destabilization of the region can lead to SDF particle in 100 of different groups. The only thing it is keeping them together is the trust to the US and money. We know the end of those who trust in the US with examples from all around the world.

When the time comes everybody will see what I am talking about. SDF simply has nothing to do with the authority in the north of Iraq or the Qandil branch. They will be annihilated like rats in the end and they have no place to hide.

Every time YPG is a theme for a talk a part from our Istiklal Marsi comes to my mind "The days God promised you will come... Who knows, maybe tomorrow... maybe even closer than tomorrow."
 

Kartal1

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While Germany has ceased its objections to the sale of Eurofighter Typhoon jets to Saudi Arabia, NATO-member Türkiye remains blocked by Germany from purchasing Eurofighter Typhoons & by the United States from buying F-16Vs. The rationale behind permitting the sale to Saudi Arabia, according to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, is that ''Saudi Arabia contributes to Israel's security by intercepting missiles fired at the country by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.''

 
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