TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Ryder]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1760225392994963877

This gives the right for Turkiye to stop people dumping nuclear waste on Somalias waters.

 

[Rodeo]

Big News

Turkiye has full authority over Somalia's territorial waters

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1760225392994963877

 

[_Mu_]

Turkey at the gateway to the Horn of Africa for 10 years​

The Somali government and the Somali Parliament approved the economic and military cooperation agreement with Türkiye

Farhan Jimali, the official spokesman for the Somali government, said: In an extraordinary session today, the Council of Ministers approved a historic agreement on defense and economic cooperation with Turkey. The deal aims to strengthen Somalia’s maritime security and enhance its defense capabilities.

Meanwhile, Somali Minister of Transport and Communications, Ferdoza Osman, said: Our country began a new era after Parliament and the government approved the defense agreement with Türkiye

The Daily Somali website, which is close to the government, said that the duration of the agreement extends for ten years, during which Turkey will fully manage the Somali territorial waters, as Turkey will secure Somalia maritime in exchange for 30% of Somali economic resources in the state’s territorial waters.

Türkiye is also rebuilding the Somali navy and combating illegal fishing According to the newspaper, the agreement will support Somalia in confronting the Ethiopian agreement with Somaliland

Somali Minister of Information, Dawoud Aweys, commented on the agreement and said: This agreement represents a force of stability for the Horn of Africa and a new era of hope for Somalia
edit: source
Aljazeera Mubasher Channel correspondent in Turkey tweet

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1760267496781672816

 

[Sanchez]

Big News

Turkiye has full authority over Somalia's territorial waters

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1760225392994963877

Very interesting development. Everyone is talking about the Ethiopian angle but Somali sources say that this was in the works long before. We don't have the details sure, but the deal looks to be pretty comprehensive on everything naval and EEZ. Somalia doesn't have a navy, or a coast guard. For years, they've been unable to police their own seas and their own EEZ. A deal where two countries work together on building a Somali maritime presence and also develop Somali underwater resources in which Turkey gets paid by some rights on Somali resources, sounds to good to be true. There are many ways to interpret this, some may even call it neo colonialism, which I disagree with. If Turkey manages to build Somalia a maritime future and gets paid in dividends this brings, everyone wins. And the ongoing cooperation between the two countries only grows from there. I wish for great success.

The implementation of this agreement is set to commence within 24 hours of its signing, entrusting Turkey with the responsibility of protecting and defending Somali waters. Should any infringement occur, Turkish forces are prepared to defend Somali waters as vigorously as they would their own.

Somalia and Turkey Sign Maritime Security Agreement: Details Unveiled

Somalia and Turkey Sign Maritime Security Agreement: Details Unveiled

www.garoweonline.com

 

[Bogeyman]

Very interesting development. Everyone is talking about the Ethiopian angle but Somali sources say that this was in the works long before. We don't have the details sure, but the deal looks to be pretty comprehensive on everything naval and EEZ. Somalia doesn't have a navy, or a coast guard. For years, they've been unable to police their own seas and their own EEZ. A deal where two countries work together on building a Somali maritime presence and also develop Somali underwater resources in which Turkey gets paid by some rights on Somali resources, sounds to good to be true. There are many ways to interpret this, some may even call it neo colonialism, which I disagree with. If Turkey manages to build Somalia a maritime future and gets paid in dividends this brings, everyone wins. And the ongoing cooperation between the two countries only grows from there. I wish for great success.

Somalia and Turkey Sign Maritime Security Agreement: Details Unveiled

Somalia and Turkey Sign Maritime Security Agreement: Details Unveiled

www.garoweonline.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1760352751437942998

We will get a 30% share from the resources we extract.

Meanwhile, according to the agreement, Somalia also gave Turkey the authority to establish a military base anywhere in Somalia without obtaining its approval.

 

[Afif]

The elephant in the room- does this deal extend to the territorial waters of so called Somali land? Becuase technically, Turkish navy can easily enforce it there.

 

[Sanchez]

The elephant in the room- does this deal extend to the territorial waters of so called Somali land? Becuase technically, Turkish navy can easily enforce it there.

Well we haven't seen the actual text, but I doubt it would give coordinates instead of just saying "Somali territorial waters". Both Somalia and Turkey recognizes "Somaliland" as part of Somalia. So, technically yes. We'll wait and see what it actually means and what are Turkey's plans about Somaliland.

-

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1760348311402258880

 

[what]

Interesting to say at least, came out of nowhere. Puts us on confrontation course with potentially UAE and Ethiopia because of Somaliland and their agreements.

 

[Bogeyman]

Interesting to say at least, came out of nowhere. Puts us on confrontation course with potentially UAE and Ethiopia because of Somaliland and their agreements.

I don't think we will be involved in this. There is no reason for Turkey to unnecessarily sour relations with the UAE.

 

[guest12]

Interesting to say at least, came out of nowhere. Puts us on confrontation course with potentially UAE and Ethiopia because of Somaliland and their agreements.

Accordoing to rumors we also started supplying TB-2 to Sudan goverment to fight againts UEA backed Rapid Force militas in throughout Egypt.Interesting days ahead.

 

[fushkee]

Welcome to imperial league!

 

[_Mu_]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1760352751437942998

We will get a 30% share from the resources we extract.

Meanwhile, according to the agreement, Somalia also gave Turkey the authority to establish a military base anywhere in Somalia without obtaining its approval.

To be able to Imagine the significance for both contries and the opportunities in this deal if to be succesfull

I used Bing AI to summarize some information :
Somalia has a long coastline and rich fish stocks in the Indian Ocean, thanks to the coastal upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters that support marine life. The country also has large, untapped reserves of minerals such as iron ore, uranium, copper, tin, bauxite, gypsum, salt, and natural gas, as well as a potential for oil exploration. However, these resources have not been fully exploited due to the lack of infrastructure, security, and governance.

Somalia’s EEZ covers 830,389 km2 and extends to 200 nautical miles from the baselines. The country has ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and passed laws to regulate its maritime sovereignty and rights. In 2014, Somalia asked the International Court of Justice to determine the maritime boundary with Kenya, which is disputed by both countries.

Some recent studies and reports about Somalia’s oil and gas potential in their EEZ. Here are some of the main findings:

• A US company, Coastline Exploration, acquired seven offshore blocks from Somalia’s federal government in 2022 and plans to start 3D seismic in November 2023 and drilling in mid-2025. The company’s CEO estimates that the blocks could contain multiple tens of billions of barrels of recoverable oil
• Somalia is considered one of the world’s last true oil and gas exploration frontiers, with a promising geology that shares similarities with neighboring countries where giant discoveries have been made. A 2D seismic survey conducted by TGS in 2014 suggested that the Somali basin could hold 30 billion barrels of crude offshore
• Somalia faces several challenges in developing its oil and gas resources, such as insecurity, land disputes, environmental issues, and illegal mining. The country also has a maritime boundary dispute with Kenya over an area of about 100,000 km2 that is believed to contain hydrocarbon deposits. The case is pending before the International Court of Justice, which is expected to deliver its verdict in 2022
• Somaliland, a self-declared independent state in northern Somalia, has also attracted interest from oil and gas companies, such as Genel Energy and RAK Gas, which have conducted exploration studies onshore. Somaliland’s oil find could reset the regional balance and create opportunities for economic development and political recognition

 

[Scott Summers]

Very good deal, a real gamechanger for both countries.

Step by step the Turkish Republic is gaining their old Ottoman influence back with this kind of agreements.

Great and exciting times.

But..our relation with Ethiopa will never be the same again.

Turkey joined the Egypt-Sudan-Somalia-Eritrea-train against Ethiopa-Somaliland-Kenya with this deal.

 

[Scott Summers]

The Somalia-Turkey Maritime Security and Economic Development Treaty is a landmark achievement with far-reaching implications. It stands not only as a testament to the power of diplomatic engagement but also as a hopeful precedent for regional cooperation in the face of adversity. As the Horn of Africa navigates its complex web of challenges, this treaty could very well be the lighthouse guiding it towards a more stable and prosperous horizon.

Anchoring Stability in the HoA: The Transformative Impact of Somalia-Turkey Maritime Security Pact

The ratification of the Maritime Security and Economic Development Treaty between Somalia and Turkey by the Somali Parliament marks a crucial moment

moderndiplomacy.eu

 

[Bozan]

Very good deal, a real gamechanger for both countries.

Step by step the Turkish Republic is gaining their old Ottoman influence back with this kind of agreements.

Great and exciting times.

But..our relation with Ethiopa will never be the same again.

Turkey joined the Egypt-Sudan-Somalia-Eritrea-train against Ethiopa-Somaliland-Kenya with this deal.

Potentially a really good deal with excellent pay off, but also a risky deal where Erdogan will have to pay for everything first and hope things remain stable for the next 3 - 10 years to get a return on investment. If the deal is only 10 years and it takes 10 years to achieve this, well, you've made the investment to get nothing.

Somalia is desperate because of Ethiopia pretty much recognizing and signing deals with the rich Somaliland which is where a lot of oil exploration took place. They've been inviting Erdogan for 3+ years:

Erdogan says Somalia invited Turkey to explore for oil offshore

Turkish leader says Ankara will take steps in its operations in Somalia in line with the invitation.

www.aljazeera.com

Oil/resources isn't guaranteed either, that 30% cut may amount to nothing. It's nothing until hydrocarbon production actually starts as Somalia has no production facilities.

Coastline Exploration leads new charge on Somalia oil and gas

US minnow took seven blocks in 2022 Potential for "multiple tens of billions of barrels": CEO ExxonMobil, Shell eyeing potential return after decades There has been renewed interest in exploration pla

www.spglobal.com

energy-pedia – upstream oil & gas news for EP professionals

energy-pedia news is a FREE news service written and edited by E&P professionals for Eamp;P professionals. We don't just report the news; we give you the technical background as well, with additional information derived from our unique energy-pedia opportunities service.

www.energy-pedia.com

The government of Somalia even recently condemned as illegal the exploration activities of Genel Energy (a Turkish company) which was exploring in Somaliland.

Some Challenges:

Somaliland signed a deal with Ethiopia. Erdogan needs to undermine this and unite separatists (not just Somaliland) into Somalia's government.

Somalia recently receives no money from IMF for development or support as they don't have the institutions to receive money. It is economically undeveloped and not politically stable. Erdogan will have to hold the country together and invest in the economy up front.


Edit - the piracy is a problem for international shipping so that is a bonus for everyone globally.

 

[Scott Summers]

Egypt, North Sudan and South Sudan have very big problems with the Great Ethiopian Renessaince Dam (GRED).

The recently Turkish-Egyptian cooperation on Libya and Palestine and this agreement with Somalia puts us directly against Ethiopia.

China is the main investor of the GRED because it is part of the Belt Road Project while the USA cutted of all aid to Ethiopia and stance with Egypt.

The GRED will be the biggest dam of the world and would finish Egypt and both Sudan's from controlling and fully using the Nile.

Hydropower Won’t Stop the Climate Crisis—It Might Make It Worse

The dispute over Ethiopia’s enormous dam should be a warning of what the future holds on a hotter, drier planet.

www.google.com

 

[_Mu_]

Egypt, North Sudan and South Sudan have very big problems with the Great Ethiopian Renessaince Dam (GRED).

The recently Turkish-Egyptian cooperation on Libya and Palestine and this agreement with Somalia puts us directly against Ethiopia.

China is the main investor of the GRED because it is part of the Belt Road Project while the USA cutted of all aid to Ethiopia and stance with Egypt.

The GRED will be the biggest dam of the world and would finish Egypt and both Sudan's from controlling and fully using the Nile.

Hydropower Won’t Stop the Climate Crisis—It Might Make It Worse

The dispute over Ethiopia’s enormous dam should be a warning of what the future holds on a hotter, drier planet.

www.google.com

It will be interesting to see how this will unfold

Turkey approved military agreement with Ethiopia amid escalation between Cairo and Addis Ababa - Nordic Monitor

Levent Kenez/Stockholm

nordicmonitor.com

aside from the source empty talk but it's with the text of the agreement

I think Turkey won’t trade one over another. They already have great leverage over Ethiopia, or in other words, very close relations.
Also, Turkey won’t go straight head to head with UAE now. Every day, New UAE investments in Turkey are on the news and arguably among the largest recently.

 

[Scott Summers]

Exactly, we are now building steady relations with everyone in Africa and Asia, its like the early Zero Enemies project of Davutoğlu.

We must be balanced and always like our geography.

The Ethiopian market (120 million people) is much bigger than the Somalian market. And Ethiopia doesnt have a coast, so a maritime agreement with Somalia should not bother them.

 

[Scott Summers]

Relations improved in the 1990s and early 2000s, and on 21 April 2006 Ethiopia re-opened its embassy in Ankara. The relations between the two countries have been described as excellent, both politically and economically.

On 18 August 2021, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara to sign military agreements, amid reports that Turkish drones being constructed in Addis Ababa. Reports emerged stating Ethiopia purchased the Bayraktar-TB2 and the ANKA-S drones from Turkey. In the meantime, Ethiopian government closed all schools run by the Gülen movement by 11 August.

Source: Wikipedia

 

[_Mu_]

Exactly, we are now building steady relations with everyone in Africa and Asia, its like the early Zero Enemies project of Davutoğlu.

That seems exactly the case currently.

Also yesterday I think, there was a defense agreement with Djibouti, but it didn't get much attention.

Turkey and Djibouti sign military pacts to boost bilateral ties

Turkey and Djibouti have signed three agreements to enhance their military cooperation, as part of their efforts to strengthen their

www.military.africa

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1760596396703400285

Sudan is still waiting for a major step too, as it's the most complicated case there due to the UAE's heavy involvement and the high possibility of needing hard power.