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Iskander

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“US dominance in the world has effectively come to an end. Americans stopped trying to control everything that happens on the planet, and began to more carefully take responsibility for global processes.”
This opinion was expressed in an interview with the Indian agency PTI by Indian Foreign Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar.

As a result, many problems in the regions of the planet can no longer be solved by the United States or any other superpower. Now they are often more or less successfully resolved by the states of the region themselves without outside interference.

This opinion is already becoming generally accepted among experts. Moreover, the Americans themselves have already begun to guess (and admit!) that they are no longer hegemons.
It is also generally accepted that there is a global shift in the center of power from the West to the East.
Brzezinski 20 years ago in his acclaimed book “The Global Chessboard” announced these processes. And he connected this with «the Great Political Awakening of the East.”
Such a global process does not occur every century. It is believed that the global center of power began to establish itself in Western Europe 500 years ago, and as a result of the First and Second World Wars it moved to North America.
Today this comes to an end. The transition process itself may take several decades.
So we live in very interesting times.
In connection with all this, as a long-time observer of interstate relations, I am interested in this: what place will we - the Turkic countries in the vast space from the Balkans to the Altai Mountains - occupy in the new world?
Of course, we, lovers of all kinds of weapons, are a little sad at the thought that all these missiles, ships, fighters and all other weapons are actually just means to achieve a goal :)

What is our goal? What place will we take in the new world?
Will we be able to create a separate center of power?
Or together with neighboring countries?
This, in my opinion, is the main question for us.
 
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Afif

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Among others one thing that matters, is numbers. See PRC, India and Indonesia, and the economic and industrial trajectory they are riding. If you are taking about post western-hegemony, (looking at....let's say, one and half decade ahead from now) then the next center of economic, technological and military prower will be South/East Asia region. It's already the place where great power competition is taking place. ME or Central Asia will have their own share if they can play it right, but they are too small to compete head on either with the West or South/East Asia.

Of course, I don't mean West will disappear. It's a delusion. I am talking more about 'increasing parity.'
 

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The Yerevan police, during revenge actions, detained a member of the ASALA terrorist group, Ambik Sassounyan, who spent 40 years in a US prison for the murder of the Turkish ambassador.

1715672002852.png

 
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Sanchez

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It goes both ways. We are able to play that game that way too.
We probably are, but do we? I don’t see it in Syria or in Iraq.
What's your solution then? Crying and letting them do whatever they want or what!?
Tears have nothing to do with it. Iran is already enforcing its will over the region in Syria, Iraq, gulf and even Caucasus. Over the last 15 years, we’ve sat back and watched as the Shia Crescent was formed near our borders. More than half of Iraq is firmly under Iranian control, Iranian militants are on our borders as west as Tal Rıfat and Idlib. Our Syrian policy for the last 5 years is about waiting a greenlight from Russia or US and our Iraqi development road project exists as long as Iran allows it. Turkey sits back and takes it as it is while Iran plays the long game, due to multiple reasons. One of which is Iran is an hornet’s nest. By how two countries are situated and Iranian interests, we can never align our interests because Iran won’t allow it and we can’t actively destabilize them because a destabilized Iran is hell for every country in the region. We can’t position ourselves against Iran with US and Israel so we go for Gulf Arab countries. But unlike Saudi or UAE which have great relations with China, we don’t.

I don’t think this question has a definitive answer and i’m not as geopolitically savvy to have an answer.
 

Mis_TR_Like

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We probably are, but do we? I don’t see it in Syria or in Iraq.

Tears have nothing to do with it. Iran is already enforcing its will over the region in Syria, Iraq, gulf and even Caucasus. Over the last 15 years, we’ve sat back and watched as the Shia Crescent was formed near our borders. More than half of Iraq is firmly under Iranian control, Iranian militants are on our borders as west as Tal Rıfat and Idlib. Our Syrian policy for the last 5 years is about waiting a greenlight from Russia or US and our Iraqi development road project exists as long as Iran allows it. Turkey sits back and takes it as it is while Iran plays the long game, due to multiple reasons. One of which is Iran is an hornet’s nest. By how two countries are situated and Iranian interests, we can never align our interests because Iran won’t allow it and we can’t actively destabilize them because a destabilized Iran is hell for every country in the region. We can’t position ourselves against Iran with US and Israel so we go for Gulf Arab countries. But unlike Saudi or UAE which have great relations with China, we don’t.

I don’t think this question has a definitive answer and i’m not as geopolitically savvy to have an answer.

Turkey has so many benefits that Iran, or any other regional adversary wishes they had. But our government is useless.

Even without the benefit of being in the OTS and NATO, we're a powerhouse on our own.

We're a secular, militaristic ethno-state with the best military in the region, sitting on the most strategic land in the world. Most Arabs and Iranians despise us because of this, the same way that Armenians, Greeks and Kurds do. They hate the idea of a more secular government coming into power, especially one which would fix the refugee problem. Why? Because their biggest fear is an ethically homogenous Türkiye that is also modern and respected by the wider world. In other words, our regional enemies want us to become another middle eastern sh*thole.

We were stupid enough to back a bunch of uncoordinated Islamists in Syria. Take in millions of Syrians, many of whom were terrorists. Meanwhile the entire west supported PKK, made them look like angels whilst making us look like we supported ISIS.

How stupid could we have been to fall for this? Were we really stupid, or were we just full of traitors? And are we still full of traitors?

We need to ask ourselves why we always lose at the table despite all the advantages we have.
 

Afif

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Turkey has so many benefits that Iran, or any other regional adversary wishes they had. But our government is useless.

Even without the benefit of being in the OTS and NATO, we're a powerhouse on our own.

We're a secular, militaristic ethno-state with the best military in the region, sitting on the most strategic land in the world. Most Arabs and Iranians despise us because of this, the same way that Armenians, Greeks and Kurds do. They hate the idea of a more secular government coming into power, especially one which would fix the refugee problem. Why? Because their biggest fear is an ethically homogenous Türkiye that is also modern and respected by the wider world. In other words, our regional enemies want us to become another middle eastern sh*thole.

We were stupid enough to back a bunch of uncoordinated Islamists in Syria. Take in millions of Syrians, many of whom were terrorists. Meanwhile the entire west supported PKK, made them look like angels whilst making us look like we supported ISIS.

How stupid could we have been to fall for this? Were we really stupid, or were we just full of traitors? And are we still full of traitors?

We need to ask ourselves why we always lose at the table despite all the advantages we have.

Türkiye is already ethnically non-homogeneous, it is not? (Without counting recent influx of refugees and illegal immigrants.) 18% of population is Kurdish.
 

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Türkiye is already ethnically non-homogeneous, it is not? (Without counting recent influx of refugees and illegal immigrants.) 18% of population is Kurdish.
There was a time when it almost was. They were simply referred to as mountain Turks. Now they have their own parties and have are actively used by other countries to undermine our security. A warning for those who think that they can assimilate 10+ million refugees.
 

YeşilVatan

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Türkiye is already ethnically non-homogeneous, it is not? (Without counting recent influx of refugees and illegal immigrants.) 18% of population is Kurdish.
We are still far away from the point of no return on the issue of demographics. US will be majority non-white in a decade or so, and white Americans under 30 are the minority. Germans still are the majority but their birthrates are way worse. Basically, US and France will be transformed into something else; Germany, South Korea and Japan will experience a demographic winter. Fate of Britain and China are yet to be clear.

If some huge global crisis happens that will enable us to take measures on that front, we can still save our country. Last time we did something similar it was WW1.
 
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Afif

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We are still far away from the point of no return on the issue of demographics. US will be majority non-white in a decade or so, and white Americans under 30 are the minority. Germans still are the majority but their birthrates are way worse. Basically, US and France will be transformed into something else; Germany, South Korea and Japan will experience a demographic winter. Fate of Britain and China are yet to be clear.

If some huge global crisis happens that will enable us to take measures on that front, we can still save our country. Last time we did something similar it was WW1.

US being non white majority isn't a problem for them. Whether it's Asian Americans, Indian Americans or Latino Americans or, by and large everyone integrates well compared to Europe. Not to mention US tech companies and Ivy league universities still attract the most talent pool around the world.
 
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Iskander

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European Commission representative Adrian Kiraly called in Yerevan to open a “corridor” between the EU and Central Asia.
The normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan is very important, since it would contribute to the opening of regional transport communications between Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and Armenia...According to her assessment, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict led to the destruction of pre-existing trade relations, as well as to the undermining of the global peace and stability.
She believes that this created the need for the rapid development of trade routes between Europe and Asia, bypassing Russia.
Let us note that although the EU representative does not call this “corridor” in any way, it is quite obvious that we are talking about the Turkish-Azerbaijani project “Zangezur Corridor,” the Armenian publication News.am sadly writes☹️ :)

 
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GoatsMilk

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Turkey has so many benefits that Iran, or any other regional adversary wishes they had. But our government is useless.

Even without the benefit of being in the OTS and NATO, we're a powerhouse on our own.

We're a secular, militaristic ethno-state with the best military in the region, sitting on the most strategic land in the world. Most Arabs and Iranians despise us because of this, the same way that Armenians, Greeks and Kurds do. They hate the idea of a more secular government coming into power, especially one which would fix the refugee problem. Why? Because their biggest fear is an ethically homogenous Türkiye that is also modern and respected by the wider world. In other words, our regional enemies want us to become another middle eastern sh*thole.

We were stupid enough to back a bunch of uncoordinated Islamists in Syria. Take in millions of Syrians, many of whom were terrorists. Meanwhile the entire west supported PKK, made them look like angels whilst making us look like we supported ISIS.

How stupid could we have been to fall for this? Were we really stupid, or were we just full of traitors? And are we still full of traitors?

We need to ask ourselves why we always lose at the table despite all the advantages we have.

In general i know lots of people from the MENA region, from Morocco to Iraq, Iran. I always got this underlying impression that these people were kind of envious that we were not at the same level as them. You would get negative quips about being "secular" or they would talk negatively of Ataturk.

I pushed my fair share of "islamism" on this forum, as a Muslim i see a wider Muslim civilisation and truth be told i see the Turks are the core component of it. But with next to no doubts i came to realise a long time ago that "political islamism" is just "cultural marxism" for Muslims. They believe that if they can destroy your national resolve, or ethnic character they will effectively destroy Islamic civilisation from ever challenging them(west, russia, isreal) in any meaningful manner. We see a similar game happening to Turks in Greece, they ban them from identifying as Turks, but push that they are "greek Muslims instead. The enemy understands and how Islam can be used to deceive and subdue the Turk.

I saw this come up in my feed and cut to the points where it talks about Turkiye, nationalism etc? Its a good example of the "islamist" failed mindset.


From what i understand this guy worked in Turkiye teaching Ottoman history. He hates the fact that Turks are nationalistic, everything bad about our history is associated to being a "Turk" everything good is "Islam". Even the host makes the point how Turks can look western European to Mongolian, so what have they got to be proud/nationalistic about. Playing his western style identity politics of skin colour being the basis for national character, history or culture. Also indirectly insulting the "Turk" identity.

He mentions how the influx of refugees has had an effect on the rise of nationalism in Turkiye, basically saying its bad that your reacting negatively to it. A similar thing happens here in england with pakistani/bangladeshi islamist types. Where they hate the english for getting annoyed about uncontrolled migrations into their country. Then they go round screaming "allahu akbar in their shalvar type clothes playing into their hands". Anyway he turns the narrative back round that the Ottomans were great because they accepted endless hordes of refugees. Implying that Turks are bad because the entire MENA east has rights to country.

Muslims on the one hand want to bask in our historical glory, the great empires, the conquests the wars. But at the same time they want to shit on our Turkish identity. Despite being Muslim, im actually sick of Islamists to a point where i think the grand majority of them are absolute shitheads, fools or worse yet western agents.

I advise all Muslims to beware that this political islamist agenda for the most part is really just socialism/communism against Islamic civilisation. Its a western trojan horse.

From a foreign policy perspective this constant attack on Turkish identity undercuts Turkiyes ability to help the region. It works to delegitimise us in a world where Muslims have no issues supporting the Russians, the Chinese, two hardcore nationalistic states that both have devastated their Muslim minorities.
 
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YeşilVatan

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US being non white majority isn't a problem for them. Whether it's Asian Americans, Indian Americans or Latino Americans or, by and large everyone integrates well compared to Europe. Not to mention US tech companies and Ivy league universities still attract the most talent pool around the world.
Best universities and talent don't mean anything if your decision makers are hellbent on destroying your nation. In fact, it helps them become more efficient. America is on the latest stage of its transformation from a nation with a shared past, values and goals to a soulless economic zone -a corporation.

Demographics is just one aspect of this transformation but probably the most important one. Soon they will understand what keeps a country going: civic virtue and personal sacrifices sustained by a sense of nationhood. Westerners will find out that duty and willpower triumphs profits and tricks, when material conditions are the same.

Bringing the topic back to Turkish foreign policy; Ukraine and Gaza feel like the small wars just before WWI; 1905 Russo Japanese, 1911 Italo-Turkish, 1912-1913 Balkan. My guess is whatever happens, we must protect our neutrality at any cost.
 

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We probably are, but do we? I don’t see it in Syria or in Iraq.

Tears have nothing to do with it. Iran is already enforcing its will over the region in Syria, Iraq, gulf and even Caucasus. Over the last 15 years, we’ve sat back and watched as the Shia Crescent was formed near our borders. More than half of Iraq is firmly under Iranian control, Iranian militants are on our borders as west as Tal Rıfat and Idlib. Our Syrian policy for the last 5 years is about waiting a greenlight from Russia or US and our Iraqi development road project exists as long as Iran allows it. Turkey sits back and takes it as it is while Iran plays the long game, due to multiple reasons. One of which is Iran is an hornet’s nest. By how two countries are situated and Iranian interests, we can never align our interests because Iran won’t allow it and we can’t actively destabilize them because a destabilized Iran is hell for every country in the region. We can’t position ourselves against Iran with US and Israel so we go for Gulf Arab countries. But unlike Saudi or UAE which have great relations with China, we don’t.

I don’t think this question has a definitive answer and i’m not as geopolitically savvy to have an answer.

Issue for Turkiye is it is a secular foundation (w.r.t Ataturk and its republic) and ideology deep enough in its national fibre now (this always applies pressure on its own state politics for the longer term...and restricts what the state can do to veer from the inertia set in on it).

Quite the opposite to what has happened with Iran post the 79 revolution regarding its state at least. So Iran's govt (state) meshes in the mid and long term with the large ideological clay in the region available to it.

This brings high long term costs and risks to Iran too btw....that Turkiye will not have to deal with if it steers the course well while waiting things out.

Turks have to know how to be a rock and trust in Ataturk's vision (and strengthen it always within own country at all junctures).

Of course apply and deploy great strength and deterrence to protect one's borders and security......and work with what you got past own borders with this in mind......but understand the ready raw state of region is default an anti-Ataturk one. This is how the west itself has also involved itself in ways antithetical to Turkish nation and state in the region....what is easily on offer to fund to hold much larger Turkish power to contain/resist it.

In the longest term, Turks have to be thinking for a post fossil fuel energy world....that is where Turkiyes industrial might will come into play in much larger way regarding what pays the bills for security in the end (if it invests well up to say 2050) versus the oil slush fund driven region. This alone will sap a lot from the Iranian regime then (assuming it is still there and the region's sociological state has not shifted much).

The Turks will also have to watch and judge the West and NATO, West's allies etc (regd tech tree flow and market access pertaining to these for itself).... vis a vis how China and Russia develop things with Iran (i.e its much limited model Iran has to enable here).
 

Bozan

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Turkey has so many benefits that Iran, or any other regional adversary wishes they had. But our government is useless.

Even without the benefit of being in the OTS and NATO, we're a powerhouse on our own.

We're a secular, militaristic ethno-state with the best military in the region, sitting on the most strategic land in the world. Most Arabs and Iranians despise us because of this, the same way that Armenians, Greeks and Kurds do. They hate the idea of a more secular government coming into power, especially one which would fix the refugee problem. Why? Because their biggest fear is an ethically homogenous Türkiye that is also modern and respected by the wider world. In other words, our regional enemies want us to become another middle eastern sh*thole.

We were stupid enough to back a bunch of uncoordinated Islamists in Syria. Take in millions of Syrians, many of whom were terrorists. Meanwhile the entire west supported PKK, made them look like angels whilst making us look like we supported ISIS.

How stupid could we have been to fall for this? Were we really stupid, or were we just full of traitors? And are we still full of traitors?

We need to ask ourselves why we always lose at the table despite all the advantages we have.

The AKP period has been the most stable in terms of military coups and some of that extreme militarism in the past contributed to the rise of the PKK - I don't think the west is responsible for it, pretending Kurds didn't work well at all

Foreign policy has always been handicapped by domestic concerns anyway, this was also exacerbated by Erdogan's Islamist goals. He wants to be a beacon in the islamic world, like his former ally Gülen
 
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Nilgiri

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In general i know lots of people from the MENA region, from Morocco to Iraq, Iran. I always got this underlying impression that these people were kind of envious that we were not at the same level as them. You would get negative quips about being "secular" or they would talk negatively of Ataturk.

I pushed my fair share of "islamism" on this forum, as a Muslim i see a wider Muslim civilisation and truth be told i see the Turks are the core component of it. But with next to no doubts i came to realise a long time ago that "political islamism" is just "cultural marxism" for Muslims. They believe that if they can destroy your national resolve, or ethnic character they will effectively destroy Islamic civilisation from ever challenging them(west, russia, isreal) in any meaningful manner. We see a similar game happening to Turks in Greece, they ban them from identifying as Turks, but push that they are "greek Muslims instead. The enemy understands and how Islam can be used to deceive and subdue the Turk.

I saw this come up in my feed and cut to the points where it talks about Turkiye, nationalism etc? Its a good example of the "islamist" failed mindset.


From what i understand this guy worked in Turkiye teaching Ottoman history. He hates the fact that Turks are nationalistic, everything bad about our history is associated to being a "Turk" everything good is "Islam". Even the host makes the point how Turks can look western European to Mongolian, so what have they got to be proud/nationalistic about. Playing his western style identity politics of skin colour being the basis for national character, history or culture. Also indirectly insulting the "Turk" identity.

He mentions how the influx of refugees has had an effect on the rise of nationalism in Turkiye, basically saying its bad that your reacting negatively to it. A similar thing happens here in england with pakistani/bangladeshi islamist types. Where they hate the english for getting annoyed about uncontrolled migrations into their country. Then they go round screaming "allahu akbar in their shalvar type clothes playing into their hands". Anyway he turns the narrative back round that the Ottomans were great because they accepted endless hordes of refugees. Implying that Turks are bad because the entire MENA east has rights to country.

Muslims on the one hand want to bask in our historical glory, the great empires, the conquests the wars. But at the same time they want to shit on our Turkish identity. Despite being Muslim, im actually sick of Islamists to a point where i think the grand majority of them are absolute shitheads, fools or worse yet western agents.

I advise all Muslims to beware that this political islamist agenda for the most part is really just socialism/communism against Islamic civilisation. Its a western trojan horse.

From a foreign policy perspective this constant attack on Turkish identity undercuts Turkiyes ability to help the region. It works to delegitimise us in a world where Muslims have no issues supporting the Russians, the Chinese, two hardcore nationalistic states that both have devastated their Muslim minorities.

The nation, state and nationstate.

The importance of the proper social contract that best arranges authority and public trust from insight and experience of history at both collective and individual realm cannot be overlooked. The success of any country/society for the longest duration rests upon this and realising in enough intensity (especially by those best in positions of power/responsiblity)...the positive and negative variables all along the route involved.

If as many Turks as possible always read in depth from beginning to end the story of Ataturk, the answers of what realities moulded him through his military career.... that he harnessed to make a republic....the Turkish nation is secure as that period of time and Ataturk really dramatically captures this for the Turkish national context more than anything else.

As I explained to a friend of mine, Ataturk could sense the what (Turks wanted and required) and the who (the Turks even were) in the broadest picture required for it.... to filter out the noise and distraction and conflation of other things that had ultimately harmed and costed the Turks in the Ottoman era....that should not be repeated among the nation of Turks again. Things like why a state should be secular for it to be optimally aligned with the unique nation it serves.

So when any nation inverts itself or ignores and mentally victimises/doubts itself in sufficient capacity for whatever reason, one will find the short-circuiting (to the state and its statist levers) of all kind of counter-ideologies finding room and permeation where previously they were little or in check. The very word "nationalism" is turned into a bad word in certain parts of over-wrought society by this short-circuiting (bypassing the nation itself)....be it by (statist/theocratic oriented) religion or by marxism....anything that does not exist as default, but exists in the recesses (given the world's reality and turbulence) looking to become the default (by undermining what occupies the default). Ideological tension, coercion and then conflict and war (overt or subvert depending on the circumstances easiest for it). This is exactly why you find similarity in political islam and marxism....its a statist short circuit grab to then slave the nation till its ideologically supportive itself to those designs.

If the national scaffolding is built poorly (again w.r.t optimal social contract), it is undermined easily or great damage is done within it even while it may be big enough to exist outwardly.

If its built well like in Ataturk's republic, it will take much longer to do and there will be warning signs. In the end the ideology of the good republic (and what is good and what is a republic) has to prevail in enough minds of the people to recognise things deeply enough....that which has provided well and they should be grateful for and further nurture...roots to flower. Cutting flowers away from the roots is cut flowers and it has become in vogue in certain corners of the world (though the reasons/contexts vary a bit) in over-wrought and undermining processes.

What is your current take on how much the Turkish nation adequately grasps what I mean with Ataturk?
 

Afif

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So when any nation inverts itself or ignores and mentally victimises/doubts itself in sufficient capacity for whatever reason, one will find the short-circuiting (to the state and its statist levers) of all kind of counter-ideologies finding room and permeation where previously they were little or in check. The very word "nationalism" is turned into a bad word in certain parts of over-wrought society by this short-circuiting (bypassing the nation itself)....be it by (statist/theocratic oriented) religion or by marxism....anything that does not exist as default, but exists in the recesses (given the world's reality and turbulence) looking to become the default (by undermining what occupies the default). Ideological tension, coercion and then conflict and war (overt or subvert depending on the circumstances easiest for it). This is exactly why you find similarity in political islam and marxism....its a statist short circuit grab to then slave the nation till its ideologically supportive itself to those designs.

I would say this is insufficient to explain the full picture. It doesn't have be manufactured victimisation/self victimisation. One nation could actually be a victim of real world oppression and destruction. That would also consequently trigger a series of 'shortcircuits' as a sort of defence mechanism. Which did happened in various cases.

Also, in many societies islamism is default. And what actually led to many of the problems we are witnessing, is trying to curb it in bad faith or in ways that took away people's fundamental rights. Perfect example is, some of ME previous secular dictators.
 
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Iskander

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In New Caledonia (the so-called “Overseas Territory of France”), an uprising against French colonialism began with the support of the Baku Initiative Group (BIG).


For several years now, Baku has been demanding that France not interfere in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan under the pretext of “solving the Karabakh problem.” Paris did not accept our demand.
Well, we solved our problem.
But this game can be played by two ;)
Now Paris is complaining that Azerbaijan, together with the People's Republic of China, is raising up local peoples in the colonies against France.
Right.
This is a noble cause.
There is an uprising in New Caledonia. The rebellious people demand that Paris respect its right to national identity!
The rebels raised the Azerbaijani flag next to the New Caledonian flag.
After that, it's Corsica's turn:)

 
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I don't want to get conspiratorial, but I think the USA tried to drive a wedge between Turkey and Japan for years with PKK. But the Japanese are too smart and aware, they've realized what was happening. Now that plan has backfired and the Japanese people are openly declaring support for Turkey.
 

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In New Caledonia (the so-called “Overseas Territory of France”), an uprising against French colonialism began with the support of the Baku Initiative Group (BIG).


For several years now, Baku has been demanding that France not interfere in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan under the pretext of “solving the Karabakh problem.” Paris did not accept our demand.
Well, we solved our problem.
But this game can be played by two ;)
Now Paris is complaining that Azerbaijan, together with the People's Republic of China, is raising up local peoples in the colonies against France.
Right.
This is a noble cause.
There is an uprising in New Caledonia. The rebellious people demand that Paris respect its right to national identity!
The rebels raised the Azerbaijani flag next to the New Caledonian flag.
After that, it's Corsica's turn:)

Ilhan is Kaagan for me , I adore that man
 
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