TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Rooxbar]

Don't follow him but I can say he's not the only one saying that.

sounds quite far-fetched anyway. I've been delving into the other point they bring up about this whole Ocalan thing, i.e. this all being about a war in Iran. The more I read realist voices from inside Iran and Israel and also since perusing a couple of books on the negotiations between westerners and Iran, it's becoming ever clearer that U.S. has only used the spectre of war for intimidation without any serious intent, at least since 2007 when the NIE leak was interpreted by Bush admin war hawks as a coup against plans to invade Iran. I think the pentagon assessment is that an invasion of Iran is not feasible and hitting their nuclear facilities by Israel (excluding Natanz which they can't destroy with their own bunker busters and need U.S. bombers and GBU-57) will only delay their nukes and make them more belligerent so that's not feasible either. Only remaining military option is U.S. bombers with the help of Israel hitting their nuclear facilities but that still translates to an all-out war down the line, so that's out of the picture as well. They seem to be helpless in the face of a nuclear Iran, as the sanctions only led to the acceleration of their program and their defiance. Their only hope remains unrest and civil war via "maximum pressure" which means crippling sanctions and this is the route they will resort to I think this time as well, as they have done before in 2009, 2019, 2022.

What I was trying to say is that the "analysis" that U.S. is trying to invade Iran which many of our own "analysts" have also been parroting seems to me now to be infantile and oblivious to the myriad of public information available in the books by Bill Burns, Jay Solomon, Ronen Bergman, Yousef Azizi, Ali Alizadeh, etc. which shows that none of the U.S. threats with regards to a military option on Iran have been credible since Iran passed the thresholds which they did in their nuclear program since about 2005-2007.

For me to make that mistake is one thing, but those whose job is to be political analyzers to make this mistake goes to show the horrendous level of analysis by our political commentators and politicians. I wasted almost the whole of past three days, reading up on this stuff. Hours which could have been saved if we had literate people in this country.

 

[Sanchez]

sounds quite far-fetched anyway. I've been delving into the other point they bring up about this whole Ocalan thing, i.e. this all being about a war in Iran. The more I read realist voices from inside Iran and Israel and also since perusing a couple of books on the negotiations between westerners and Iran, it's becoming ever clearer that U.S. has only used the spectre of war for intimidation without any serious intent, at least since 2007 when the NIE leak was interpreted by Bush admin war hawks as a coup against plans to invade Iran. I think the pentagon assessment is that an invasion of Iran is not feasible and hitting their nuclear facilities by Israel (excluding Natanz which they can't destroy with their own bunker busters and need U.S. bombers and GBU-57) will only delay their nukes and make them more belligerent so that's not feasible either. Only remaining military option is U.S. bombers with the help of Israel hitting their nuclear facilities but that still translates to an all-out war down the line, so that's out of the picture as well. They seem to be helpless in the face of a nuclear Iran, as the sanctions only led to the acceleration of their program and their defiance. Their only hope remains unrest and civil war via "maximum pressure" which means crippling sanctions and this is the route they will resort to I think this time as well, as they have done before in 2009, 2019, 2022.

What I was trying to say is that the "analysis" that U.S. is trying to invade Iran which many of our own "analysts" have also been parroting seems to me now to be infantile and oblivious to the myriad of public information available in the books by Bill Burns, Jay Solomon, Ronen Bergman, Yousef Azizi, Ali Alizadeh, etc. which shows that none of the U.S. threats with regards to a military option on Iran have been credible since Iran passed the thresholds which they did in their nuclear program since about 2005-2007.

For me to make that mistake is one thing, but those whose job is to be political analyzers to make this mistake goes to show the horrendous level of analysis by our political commentators and politicians. I wasted almost the whole of past three days, reading up on this stuff. Hours which could have been saved if we had literate people in this country.

Largely agree but, just like in US, in Turkey too foreign politics cannot be read separately from internal politics. There's a thread there we're not seeing yet. It'll become clearer in the coming months as it unfolds. For now it's anyone's guess. I just know that I don't like the possible ramifications from what's been presented so far. Pretty sure that we'll all be flabbergasted regardless.

 

[Rooxbar]

Largely agree but, just like in US, in Turkey too foreign politics cannot be read separately from internal politics. There's a thread there we're not seeing yet. It'll become clearer in the coming months as it unfolds. For now it's anyone's guess. I just know that I don't like the possible ramifications from what's been presented so far. Pretty sure that we'll all be flabbergasted regardless.

I think it's mostly this:

Alliance of the periphery - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

With the Kurdish part of that being linked with the plan for weakening the Islamic republic through civil strife, to maybe in the end bring the Iranian Kurdistan under the Barzanis (they had the Iranian part locked down before the 1979 revolution and have been trying to get it back ever since, but they don't seem to see it possible in the short run.)

I had ordered this book: https://www.amazon.nl/-/en/Shlomo-Nakdimon/dp/0671638718 which is the definitive source on this at least from the Israeli pov but it fucking got lost in the mail.

Bernard-Henri Levy: For a stable Middle East, we need an independent Kurdistan

Rudaw is a broadcast and digital news network based in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, publishing in English, Kurdish, Arabic, and Turkish.

www.rudaw.net

Israel's prime minister backs Kurdish independence

Binyamin Netanyahu claims creation of Kurdish state would aid in formation of alliance of moderate powers in Middle East

www.theguardian.com

https://www.reuters.com/article/world/israel-endorses-independent-kurdish-state-idUSKCN1BO0QW/

Btw, I would've assassinated Michael Rubin long ago if I was at the head of MIT. You gotta eliminate some key people, certain people have outsized influence.

 

[Rooxbar]

Also just learnt about this book by Adnan Oktar (Referring to this book, an Arab commentator said Harun Yahya is a Jewish Turkish writer ):

https://www.nadirkitap.com/israil-in-kurt-karti-israil-in-ortadogu-strateji-ve-kurt-devleti-senaryolari-harun-yayha-kitap39338116.html

 

[Kartal1]

Nechirvan Barzani:

"We are proud that Duhok and Erbil are shown as part of Turkey."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1855650723192504412

This is fake news. He didn't say anything like that. The initial post is made by a pro-PKK account.

Was it Özdil who was saying that the plan might be to try and propagandize the populace that they will claim Turkey will expand or sth (into Iraq and Syria) to then give autonomy to the southeast?

Cihat Yayci made a video on this.

 

[Ryder]

What do the Turks who simp for Israel think of the foreign ministers words?

I told you guys about this so many times.

This is the Middle East.

 

[Iskander]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Baku on November 11 to attend the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-29).

The heads of 80 states and governments arrived in Azerbaijan yesterday. It seems like the conference has started. But what kind of conference would it be without the Sultan?

Sayın Cumhurbaşkanım arrived last night.
Now we can say that the conference took place

 

[Lool]

It seems that the US support for the PKK/YPG remains strong within the new US administration
Trump, as I said before, wont be able to change shit

Translation:

He says the YPG/PKK are "our best allies in the Middle East after Israel."
He is strongly against the US withdrawal from Syria. “We must stand with our Kurdish allies,” he said.
He regards the idea of withdrawing from Syria as a "strategic mistake."
When Turkey launched an operation against the YPG/PKK in 2019, he submitted a bill to impose sanctions on Turkey, President Erdoğan, ministers and defense industry sales.
He called Turkey's presence in Syria an "occupation." -He said, "We fought shoulder to shoulder" for the YPG/PKK.
He called for special US visas for YPG/PKK terrorists.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1856182931900834006

A video I saw long ago about Putin when he said that whenever the US president changes, people with black suits like me enter the white house and instruct the new US president to follow the narrative the jewish/zionist deep state set for the US

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1855877686658290071

 

[Ryder]

So many problems in the Middle East are either blamed on Arabs or the Iranians.

But lets not forget how Israel with its lobbying baited for the USA to invade Iraq in 2003.

All the problems is to make Israel feel secure while the rest are in chaos.

The Kurds are seen as allies by both the USA and Israel as they are a good tool to use to destabilise the region even more.

 

[TheInsider]

Marco Rubio will be appointed as Secretary of the State big trouble for Turkiye. He is pro-Gulenist and supports PKK/YPG.

 

[YeşilVatan]

Marco Rubio will be appointed as Secretary of the State big trouble for Turkiye. He is pro-Gulenist and supports PKK/YPG.

I agree it's bad, but Pompeo was secretary of state when Trump gave the order for Syria withdrawal. It's not end all be all.

 

[Asena_great]

Marco Rubio will be appointed as Secretary of the State big trouble for Turkiye. He is pro-Gulenist and supports PKK/YPG.

fuck

 

[TheInsider]

I agree it's bad, but Pompeo was secretary of state when Trump gave the order for Syria withdrawal. It's not end all be all.

And it resulted in bad blood between Trump and Pompeo and Pentagon didn't execute Trumps order.

 

[Mis_TR_Like]

this isn't aimed at anyone in particular, but I would suggest that we don't start blaming "outside forces" once again.

the country is full of 10+ million foreigners - pkkistan project is marching forward - new peace process is coming up

who's responsible for all of this? "oh bu-bu-but its America and I-I-sreal" shut the f up, tell me again who's been ruling the country for 20 years?

If you treat foreign policy as a tool for gaining voters and holding your grip on power this is the result. We're becoming a second Iran, and that isn't a good thing.

Elections need to hurry up.

 

[Rooxbar]

sounds quite far-fetched anyway. I've been delving into the other point they bring up about this whole Ocalan thing, i.e. this all being about a war in Iran. The more I read realist voices from inside Iran and Israel and also since perusing a couple of books on the negotiations between westerners and Iran, it's becoming ever clearer that U.S. has only used the spectre of war for intimidation without any serious intent, at least since 2007 when the NIE leak was interpreted by Bush admin war hawks as a coup against plans to invade Iran. I think the pentagon assessment is that an invasion of Iran is not feasible and hitting their nuclear facilities by Israel (excluding Natanz which they can't destroy with their own bunker busters and need U.S. bombers and GBU-57) will only delay their nukes and make them more belligerent so that's not feasible either. Only remaining military option is U.S. bombers with the help of Israel hitting their nuclear facilities but that still translates to an all-out war down the line, so that's out of the picture as well. They seem to be helpless in the face of a nuclear Iran, as the sanctions only led to the acceleration of their program and their defiance. Their only hope remains unrest and civil war via "maximum pressure" which means crippling sanctions and this is the route they will resort to I think this time as well, as they have done before in 2009, 2019, 2022.

What I was trying to say is that the "analysis" that U.S. is trying to invade Iran which many of our own "analysts" have also been parroting seems to me now to be infantile and oblivious to the myriad of public information available in the books by Bill Burns, Jay Solomon, Ronen Bergman, Yousef Azizi, Ali Alizadeh, etc. which shows that none of the U.S. threats with regards to a military option on Iran have been credible since Iran passed the thresholds which they did in their nuclear program since about 2005-2007.

For me to make that mistake is one thing, but those whose job is to be political analyzers to make this mistake goes to show the horrendous level of analysis by our political commentators and politicians. I wasted almost the whole of past three days, reading up on this stuff. Hours which could have been saved if we had literate people in this country.

Whatever I said here is with an assumption of semi-rational actors; people Trump is appointing right now are mostly people blind with Zionist rage (or at least pretending to be for monetary reasons). So all those apprehensions and calculations might be null and void if only thing you want is to do the bidding of the craziest factions in Israel.

 

[Rooxbar]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/new-top-diplomat-saar-calls-for-boosting-kurdish-ties-admits-failures-in-amsterdam-response/

 

[Ryder]

The autonomous Kurdistan Region in Iraq is strategically situated along Iran’s and Turkey’s borders, which makes it a strategically potent potential ally for Israel. In the 1960s and 70s, the IDF and Mossad supported Kurdish rebels against the Iraqi government, in cooperation with Iran.

Sa’ar also points out the Druze minorities in Syria and Lebanon as possible partners.

“Understand that in a region where we will always be a minority – natural alliances will be with other minorities,” he says.

 

[Ryder]

After that the Assyrians will start demanding a homeland.

Then the refugees in Turkiye will be asking for their own homeland.

It will keep on going and going.

 

[Ryder]

this isn't aimed at anyone in particular, but I would suggest that we don't start blaming "outside forces" once again.

the country is full of 10+ million foreigners - pkkistan project is marching forward - new peace process is coming up

who's responsible for all of this? "oh bu-bu-but its America and I-I-sreal" shut the f up, tell me again who's been ruling the country for 20 years?

If you treat foreign policy as a tool for gaining voters and holding your grip on power this is the result. We're becoming a second Iran, and that isn't a good thing.

Elections need to hurry up.

Outside forces only take advantage of what is going inside of the country.

If the internal structure is not strong somebody will take advantage of it.

Unfortunately man most of the politicians in Turkiye regardless if its Erdogan or not are under somebodies pay roll.

 

[selim]

Pompeo was anti-Turkish to the core.

The other guys mentioned for a potential role in Trump government are still politicians.
Once they are part of the government they get full / better access to intelligence, more time with Trump personally.
Then they might change their tune.
No official in Trump government will do anything against Trump's wishes, or they'll get fired.

Most important is still Trump, and than Vance.
Trump-Erdogan chemistry will decide everything.