TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[dBSPL]

Rather than focusing on establishing a joint military posture, we need to demonstrate how this can foster a consensus on economic and regional interests. Will Egypt and Turkiye sign a joint EEZ agreement in the Eastern Mediterranean? Will Saudi Arabia and Turkiye sign a framework agreement on the New Hijaz Railway and energy corridor? It’s not just from our perspective. There are certain steps that need to be taken to build trust even between Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

True deterrence emerges when countries align their interests and mutual dependence deepens. A military alliance framework is a natural extension of this, not the starting point. Most things that begin with grand rhetoric in this region are nothing more than empty talk with a lifespan as short as a few tea parties.

 

[AlperTunga]

An opinion piece on Türkiye in the Israeli media:

The website is blocked in Türkiye so I'm sharing the article here.

Shay Gal - Israelhayom

Iran was the rehearsal. The Turkish file is open.

The Turkish file is already operational. It is architecture: Akkuyu, missiles, launch infrastructure, the Turkish occupied northern Cyprus, Somalia, Hamas sanctuary and funding, a defence industry, a leadership normalising escalation, a state aligning institutions and strategy. Components, not compartments. Integration is the risk.

Ankara's Foreign Ministry labelled Benjamin Netanyahu "the Hitler of our time" and vowed prosecution. Istanbul prosecutors indicted Netanyahu and 34 Israelis over the 2025 Global Sumud flotilla. Rhetoric and prosecution align. Not statements. Signals.

Erdogan's shift is operational. Denunciations gave way to Libya and Karabakh, followed by explicit intent: Turkey could "enter Israel" as it did there. Media normalised invasion, punishment and siege. His language is input.

Israeli planning follows execution logic. The same disciplines applied to nuclear infrastructure and terror command networks in the Iranian file have already been executed, including actions against Hamas operatives in Qatar in autumn 2025 and operations across multiple theatres. They are now applied to the Turkish one.

In Israeli planning, Erdogan's phrasing, precedents and timing are variables. The question is when he acts on them.

At Akkuyu, rhetoric meets vulnerability. Turkey's first nuclear plant, built, owned and operated by Russia's Rosatom on the Mediterranean coast, comes online late. Four VVER 1200 units, built for decades, supplying a tenth of Turkey's grid, lock Ankara into dependence on Russian technology, fuel and decommissioning. Erdogan's insistence on sovereign enrichment marks a shift from externally controlled infrastructure to national option space.

Israel demonstrated the model: programmes can be delayed, distorted and turned into liabilities long before a strike. Akkuyu fits that model. A reactor is defeated without being struck. It is delayed, driven into paralysis, constrained by export controls, burdened by sanctions and stranded politically until it becomes a prestige shell.

Three pressure layers. Regulatory pressure forces pauses, retrofits and oversight. Structural constraints, supply chains, services and financing remain exposed to sanctions or export controls. Alliance pressure raises cost directly. No veto. Only increasing difficulty sustaining expansion under scrutiny.

A nuclear plant is not a casual target. International humanitarian law sets a high bar where civilian harm risks escalation absent direct military use, but militarisation voids that insulation. The law defines cumulative triggers: shielding operational military assets, direct participation in attacks causing damage, and failure of non-kinetic measures. Once crossed, neutralisation begins with disablement of function, flow and integration.

Stuxnet, followed by Flame and Duqu, showed that nuclear infrastructure can be degraded at system level without airstrikes, through covert cyber operations and systemic disruption already applied in the Iranian file. The same tools. The same maps.

As Ankara approaches fuel cycle autonomy and extends military use along its coastline, the margin narrows. Akkuyu is mapped as a system no less precisely than by Ankara and Rosatom.

Akkuyu does not fall within the logic of Article 5. It is not a collective defence asset. It is a structural vulnerability embedded within alliance space. If its function shifts from civilian generation to operational enablement, action against it is assessed not as aggression but as response. Article 5 requires consensus. Where a facility contributes to threat architecture rather than alliance defence, that consensus does not form. From exposure to reach.

Erdogan has already defined the vector. After

To be widely dismissed by the West after unofficially labeling it a Sunni axis.
To be joyfully embraced by Israel as a threat towards the existence of it after officially labeling it as an evil axis of anti-Semite and anti-Israel.
Also this looks like High card at poker. No pairs. No set of three. Üç benzemez.
My two cents.

Rather than focusing on establishing a joint military posture, we need to demonstrate how this can foster a consensus on economic and regional interests. Will Egypt and Turkiye sign a joint EEZ agreement in the Eastern Mediterranean? Will Saudi Arabia and Turkiye sign a framework agreement on the New Hijaz Railway and energy corridor? It’s not just from our ;24. There are certain steps that need to be taken to build trust even between Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

True deterrence emerges when countries align their interests and mutual dependence deepens. A military alliance framework is a natural extension of this, not the starting point. Most things that begin with grand rhetoric in this region are nothing more than empty talk with a lifespan as short as a few tea parties.

Excellent comment, agree fully. Just military posturing without fundamental alignment would even backfire. But if Saudis show a portion of their generosity towards US, then it can help both Türkiye and them. So the ball here is rather with them and not with us.

Edit: ignore the first two extracts above, couldnt delete them.

 

[TurkWolf]

Pakistan, Saudi, Egypt to hold talks on new regional security framework in Turkey next week - What's happening

Rather than focusing on establishing a joint military posture, we need to demonstrate how this can foster a consensus on economic and regional interests. Will Egypt and Turkiye sign a joint EEZ agreement in the Eastern Mediterranean? Will Saudi Arabia and Turkiye sign a framework agreement on the New Hijaz Railway and energy corridor? It’s not just from our perspective. There are certain steps that need to be taken to build trust even between Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

True deterrence emerges when countries align their interests and mutual dependence deepens. A military alliance framework is a natural extension of this, not the starting point. Most things that begin with grand rhetoric in this region are nothing more than empty talk with a lifespan as short as a few tea parties.

NATO worked because for decades there was one superpower that was stronger than the whole world combine to keep the alliance in order. Now this experiment is failing at the first sign of trouble. Naturally humans lookout for themselves first.
Or scenario like WW2 where all have a common enemy.

Tell me who is going to come help us when Greeks want to kill Cypriot Turks again? I have a feeling they'll be pointing fingers at us and blaming us for it.

But that's just me.

 

[AlperTunga]

NATO worked because for decades there was one superpower that was stronger than the whole world combine to keep the alliance in order. Now this experiment is failing at the first sign of trouble. Naturally humans lookout for themselves first.
Or scenario like WW2 where all have a common enemy.

Tell me who is going to come help us when Greeks want to kill Cypriot Turks again? I have a feeling they'll be pointing fingers at us and blaming us for it.

But that's just me.

We dont need anyone to come to our help. We just need money to produce weapons. SA has it. They can invest in our projects. We can establish there a base and send there, say 30 pilots. In case of war these pilots would come to our help with SA jets. But they can also help SA if air fight needed there. One can arrange stuff like that.

 

[TurkWolf]

We dont need anyone to come to our help. We just need money to produce weapons. SA has it. They can invest in our projects. We can establish there a base and send there, say 30 pilots. In case of war these pilots would come to our help with SA jets. But they can also help SA if air fight needed there. One can arrange stuff like that.

Just clarify, I didn't mean we needed anyone's help we just need allies that're on our side for once.

And do we really need their investments? Not sure I agree there.

 

[AlperTunga]

A further exanple: we sell SA 1000 Altays and hundreds of Gürz, Hisar, Siper etc. They are produced in Egypt, Pakistan, SA as well. 500 Altays and other systems to attack but also protect against Israeli jets move both from SA base and Egypt base in Sinai. Easiest places to attack Israel from land. We can also attack additionally from Suriye. Pakistan produces more A-bombs and distributes them to the „axis“. Such an attack cannot be fend off even with US help. Israel realizing this will have to agree to some sort of peace rather than going through military route.

 

[jane.moth88]

I am following this post, thank you.

 

[Corvus]

Rather than focusing on establishing a joint military posture, we need to demonstrate how this can foster a consensus on economic and regional interests. Will Egypt and Turkiye sign a joint EEZ agreement in the Eastern Mediterranean? Will Saudi Arabia and Turkiye sign a framework agreement on the New Hijaz Railway and energy corridor? It’s not just from our perspective. There are certain steps that need to be taken to build trust even between Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

True deterrence emerges when countries align their interests and mutual dependence deepens. A military alliance framework is a natural extension of this, not the starting point. Most things that begin with grand rhetoric in this region are nothing more than empty talk with a lifespan as short as a few tea parties.

Agreed.

The thing gives me hope is that circumstances are driving these countries to stand together now more than ever. There are common threats and mutual interests. Cooperation works for all the sides as everyone brings something to add on the table. We need them, they need us.

We just need to build trust and increase cooperation in an instutionalized manner. That's what Hakan Fidan was saying in his latest interview actually.

 

[Corvus]

To be widely dismissed by the West after unofficially labeling it a Sunni axis.
To be joyfully embraced by Israel as a threat towards the existence of it after officially labeling it as an evil axis of anti-Semite and anti-Israel.
Also this looks like High card at poker. No pairs. No set of three. Üç benzemez.
My two cents.

Do we seriously need to care what the West or Israel labeling us at this point?

 

[dBSPL]

Ankara is planning to build Oil refinery by 2027 in Mogadishu

As Türkiye’s CagriBey drill ship started his activities in Somalia waters, Ankara is planning to build an oil refinery which has capacity of more than 50,000 to 200,000 BPD.

Once the size and quality of the oil is determined via direct sampling and lab tests, which determine the type of the refinery needed, a financing model will then be discussed with Somali, Turkish and international stakeholders, often involving government bodies, major #energy companies, international regulatory agencies and local lawmakers.

On average, a medium refinery with 50,000–200,000 bpd capacity costs around $4-6 billion depending on complexity and takes up to 5 years before it’s fully operational, complete with storage areas and a tanker terminal. It would create direct employment for ~1000 Somalis 70% blue collar plus open 5000 additional jobs in the vicinity as “side industry” covering transportation, security, plastics, petrochemicals, recycling, housing, social services, construction, etc. Much of the oil would be exported around the world via sea routes, but new pipelines and or trucking lines would also take finished products gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc to the rest of Somalia and inland into East African markets.

At 90% average utilization 180,000bpd, such an enterprise could generate Mogadishu $7-8.5 billion of additional gross revenue per year based on moderate pre-Iran War oil prices, funding all kinds of development across the country.

We expect to hear the first official announcement for such a refinery in early 2027, and if all goes well on the financing and regulatory side, its construction to begin by late 2028

Ankara is planning to build Oil refinery by 2027 in Mogadishu | Inside Somalia

insidesomalia.net

Frankly, it’s best to take this news with a pinch of salt at this stage. On the other hand, Somalia seas has some preliminary findings that could potentially make it one of Africa’s largest oil producers. TPAO also conducted extensive hydrocarbon studies prior to the drilling operations. These were not shared with the press; we’ve only seen a few enthusiastic statements from Somalia. When we piece these reports together, the conclusion is either that something big is on the horizon, or that Somalia’s hopes now rest entirely on these drilling activities—and in fact, both outcomes could be partially accurate.

 

[Iskander]

What will she do when she sees this photo?
Will she go crazy?
But she's already crazy enough.

Netenyahu acknowledged the incident and ordered an investigation.

Армия Израиля подтвердила: ее военный разбил статую Христа

haqqin.az

 

[Fuzuli NL]

Türkiye, UK sign 'strategic partnership' framework to deepen ties


The document was signed during a meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Secretary Yvette Cooper.

Turkish FM Hakan Fidan meets with Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs Yvette Cooper in London, UK on April 23, 2026. / Anadolu Agency

2 hours ago
Türkiye and the United Kingdom have signed a “Strategic Partnership Framework Document”, establishing a renewed route to further advance bilateral relations and expand co-operation through closer dialogue.
According to a statement on Thursday shared by the Turkish Foreign Ministry on X, the document was signed during a meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Secretary Yvette Cooper in London.
A joint statement shared by the Turkish foreign ministry's official website stated that the Framework Document covers a wide range of areas, from security to climate change, and from humanitarian development to science and technology.
It aims to further strengthen the existing strategic partnership between the two NATO allies and to expand the scope of co-operation enhanced through close dialogue at both bilateral and multilateral levels.


Focus on NATO and global security
The statement added that the framework "creates a strong basis to strengthen dialogue and co-operation between our two countries as NATO Allies and strategic partners who share an historic friendship, excellent bilateral relations and common perspectives on a wide range of international issues and global challenges, including a strong desire for security and stability in the Middle East."
The statement further highlighted that the accelerating shift towards a fragmented, multipolar international order is heightening risks for both Türkiye and the UK, while underscoring the continued importance of deterrence and defence within NATO’s Strategic Concept in ensuring Euro-Atlantic security.
“NATO, the bedrock of our security and collective defence, has increased its political and military relevance,” it said, adding that “strong transatlantic relations are indispensable to peace and stability in Europe.”
Cooperation across security, economy and global challenges
The framework aims to deepen UK–Türkiye cooperation across a wide range of areas, including global security, NATO coordination, defence and industry collaboration, counterterrorism, and humanitarian efforts. It also expands joint work on climate change, energy security, and partnerships in science, technology, and innovation.
The joint statement highlights that the Framework “reaffirms our intention to increase bilateral trade and investment”, including through talks on a "modernised Free Trade Agreement" aimed at supporting shared economic growth.
"The talks in London today underline that relations between the UK and Türkiye are rooted in strong economic and growth ties, a shared commitment to the defence of Euro-Atlantic security and enduring people-to-people links which continue to enhance mutual understanding and goodwill," the statement noted.

TRT World - Türkiye, UK sign 'strategic partnership' framework to deepen ties

The document was signed during a meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Secretary Yvette Cooper.

www.trtworld.com

UK–Türkiye Strategic Partnership Framework: joint statement, April 2026

Joint statement by the foreign ministers of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Türkiye on the Strategic Partnership Framework signed in London.

www.gov.uk