India India - China Relations

[Maximilian Veers]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303250398031933440

It's just a matter of when now. Conflict is certain at this point.

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303250398031933440

It's just a matter of when now. Conflict is certain at this point.

If the chinese are allowed to position themselves. They will make a move. The question is if India will suffice with making a stand or capitalize on their position and make a move.

The best time to catch an enemy off guard is while they're in bed.

 

[Maximilian Veers]

If the chinese are allowed to position themselves. They will make a move. The question is if India will suffice with making a stand or capitalize on their position and make a move.

The best time to catch an enemy off guard is while they're in bed.

OSINT is giving a lot of confusing information. So not entirely sure what's going on. Judging from the govt. press releases on both sides. India is trying to force PLA into firing the first shot while the Chinese seem to be trying to create the narrative to justify itself for firing the first shot.

 

[Joe Shearer]

OSINT is giving a lot of confusing information. So not entirely sure what's going on. Judging from the govt. press releases on both sides. India is trying to force PLA into firing the first shot while the Chinese seem to be trying to create the narrative to justify itself for firing the first shot.

The first shots have already been fired. A shot in the air is still a shot. Now both sides are busy putting their spin on it.

My take is that the PLA is not yet entirely confident about getting the upper hand. First, in 1968, then at Dokhlam, now, as it develops, with a lag, they are uncertain about what they're facing.

If there is an outbreak of hostilities, we will lose, not for any other reason than for logistics. They are far better organised to supply their troops than we are.

 

[Joe Shearer]

View attachment 1030

Quite assertive.

Thank Heavens for this.

Written by a fauji, it is worth noticing. Also interesting to see the dating. So, one good, one bad thing to emerge from this.

 

[Joe Shearer]

To hell with the Global Times blaming us for changing long standing agreements at the LAC. It was them who broke peace at the border by using rods nd clubs on June 15 resulting in casualties for the first time in 40+ years. Rules of engagement just cannot be allowed to change at the whim nd fancies of PLA.

Will you tell them, or shall I?

 

[Joe Shearer]

I like how it's going though. India has managed to get the highest points. I think the next move is strenghtening and maintaining the positions. Which is probably what China also expects.

I'd make a preemptive move and drive a wedge in at some point that would make PLA stumble backwards in all haste to strengthen their positions. Alleviate the pressure from the three tops/Black Top.

That is actually best done at a point a few hundred kilometres further south, on the Himachal/Uttarakhand borders with Tibet.

Unfortunately, those are undisputed boundaries, so the PLA will claim that this is naked aggression; we - India - are expanding a dispute over boundary lines in Ladakh, already in dispute, into a dispute over settled fixed lines, so they can then claim that they therefore have the right to expand the dispute anywhere they choose.

At the spot itself, because of our own tangled supply lines and complex logistics, it is difficult for us to do too much. The PLA has been strengthening their roads and their railhead depots in preparation for this for nearly a year, perhaps more than that; we are playing catch-up.

For instance get behind the armored regiment in a position of strength, PLA clearly tries to keep India away from the lake, but having enemy units behind your line in a wedge wouldn't sit well.

Only question is whether that position is sustainable and how much effort it would require.

Whatever the Indian Army does, it should not over-extend. It should not get into a position where any detachment can be cut off by the PLA simply putting in a road-block. Then to go past that road-block would need force. Ultimately, shooting.

 

[Paro]

Diplomats must not give away Army's gains again - The Statesman

On the other hand, the Indian army perception is that only projecting a strong resolve and countering Chinese offensive actions would compel them to the negotiating table

www.thestatesman.com

 

[Paro]

Smart Policy by PM Modi will frustrate PLA designs on border - The Sunday Guardian Live

The PRC needs a neutral India and this it hopes to achieve by showcasing that the costs of abandoning neutrality, which by definition includes continued

www.sundayguardianlive.com

 

[Maximilian Veers]

The first shots have already been fired. A shot in the air is still a shot. Now both sides are busy putting their spin on it.

My take is that the PLA is not yet entirely confident about getting the upper hand. First, in 1968, then at Dokhlam, now, as it develops, with a lag, they are uncertain about what they're facing.

If there is an outbreak of hostilities, we will lose, not for any other reason than for logistics. They are far better organised to supply their troops than we are.

I am talking about a full-scale military conflict, at this point any shot's fired is largely irrelevant as worse things have happened in the past. Once a war starts, it's futile to predict how any conflict will go. Way too many factors involved to even consider predicting who will win or lose. Chinese does not want a full-blown war in their western front right now, they want a face-saving military conflict where they can show some small gains and casualties. The effect of logistics and supplies only increases as the scale of the conflict increases.

TBH, I am still not that sure about their "supplies and logistics", for example in the Pangong Tso region their entire supply line is through S301 road and they have deployed a division worth of troops in a region with only two exit points. One is to the Jaws of the IA, the other is through S301.

 

[Paro]

India sits on Black Top with Helmet under its boots. A 1962 tactic by China is now likely

For India, it would be naive to celebrate a small operation because China will not respond the way we did for the last four months.

theprint.in

 

[Joe Shearer]

I am talking about a full-scale military conflict, at this point any shot's fired is largely irrelevant as worse things have happened in the past.

Without criticising your thorough and detailed narration, might I ask - no sarcasm involved - what is a full-scale military conflict? Were these military conflicts:

• Cho La
• Dokhlam
• Galwan Valley

What would a full-scale military conflict look like? Platoon-strength? Company strength? Battalion/regiment strength (the PLA uses regiments)? Brigade? Division? With full-scale artillery support? Without artillery support? Armour involved? Air support involved? Local Multi-Barrel Rocket Launchers involved?

The point was made some five hundred years ago, and it might help to look at that soldierly analysis:

TOUCHSTONE

O sir, we quarrel in print, by the book, as you have books for good manners. I will name you the degrees: the first, “the retort courteous”; the second, “the quip modest”; the third, “the reply churlish”; the fourth, “the reproof valiant”; the fifth, “the countercheque quarrelsome”; the sixth, “the lie with circumstance”; the seventh, “the lie direct.” All these you may avoid but the lie direct, and you may avoid that, too, with an “if.” I knew when seven justices could not take up a quarrel, but when the parties were met themselves, one of them thought but of an “if,” as: “If you said so, then I said so.” And they shook hands and swore brothers. Your “if” is the only peacemaker: much virtue in “if.”

The raggedy-arse PhD and a bit who is our Minister for External Affairs refers to "if" as "deep conversations".

Once a war starts, it's futile to predict how any conflict will go. Way too many factors involved to even consider predicting who will win or lose. Chinese does not want a full-blown war in their western front right now, they want a face-saving military conflict where they can show some small gains and casualties. The effect of logistics and supplies only increases as the scale of the conflict increases.

And we survive the winter in dug-in quarters on both sides without any regard to the effects of logistics and supplies?

Interesting. One lives and learns.

TBH, I am still not that sure about their "supplies and logistics", for example in the Pangong Tso region their entire supply line is through S301 road and they have deployed a division worth of troops in a region with only two exit points. One is to the Jaws of the IA, the other is through S301.

It might be relevant to glance sideways at the percentage of the entire world's civil engineering equipment currently sitting idle in China because the construction boom has slowed down, thanks to bats being on their diet. Of course, the Chinese have their BRO as well, and will take a Five Year Plan to build optional approaches, once they have decided to hang tight (they have already decided what to do, it is just that we do not know the decision yet).

 

[Joe Shearer]

I am talking about a full-scale military conflict, at this point any shot's fired is largely irrelevant as worse things have happened in the past. Once a war starts, it's futile to predict how any conflict will go. Way too many factors involved to even consider predicting who will win or lose. Chinese does not want a full-blown war in their western front right now, they want a face-saving military conflict where they can show some small gains and casualties. The effect of logistics and supplies only increases as the scale of the conflict increases.

TBH, I am still not that sure about their "supplies and logistics", for example in the Pangong Tso region their entire supply line is through S301 road and they have deployed a division worth of troops in a region with only two exit points. One is to the Jaws of the IA, the other is through S301.

Jingoism, hyper-patriotism, and an unshakable belief in what is fed to us by Festung Modi, is an extremely dangerous state of mind with which to face a war-like situation. I couldn't care less; my daughter, son-in-law and grandson are safely esconced in the US of A, and are beyond the reach of possible nuclear strikes.

But good luck with your scenario-building.

 

[Nilgiri]

Pretty detailed write up on SFF:

From Establishment 22 To Special Frontier Force: The Phantom Warriors

Who would lead such a force? What was needed was a senior Indian military officer who could win the confidence of the Tibetans, embracing th...

trishul-trident.blogspot.com

 

[Maximilian Veers]

Without criticising your thorough and detailed narration, might I ask - no sarcasm involved - what is a full-scale military conflict? Were these military conflicts:

• Cho La
• Dokhlam
• Galwan Valley

What would a full-scale military conflict look like? Platoon-strength? Company strength? Battalion/regiment strength (the PLA uses regiments)? Brigade? Division? With full-scale artillery support? Without artillery support? Armour involved? Air support involved? Local Multi-Barrel Rocket Launchers involved?

Not sure why you are asking me this question when you know what precisely what I am talking about. The rest of the folks who read my post knows as well. So I am not going to waste my time talking over rather irrelevant points.

And we survive the winter in dug-in quarters on both sides without any regard to the effects of logistics and supplies?
Interesting. One lives and learns.

I don't have the slightest clue how you came to that conclusion after reading my post. Please read my post again if you have "misunderstood" it.

 

[Maximilian Veers]

Jingoism, hyper-patriotism, and an unshakable belief in what is fed to us by Festung Modi, is an extremely dangerous state of mind with which to face a war-like situation. I couldn't care less; my daughter, son-in-law and grandson are safely esconced in the US of A, and are beyond the reach of possible nuclear strikes.

But good luck with your scenario-building.

Jingoism, tainted perspective due to hatred, and the unshakable ability to rail against someone who is your ideological rival is an extremely dangerous state of mind to face a war-like situation. Thankfully, for them, those people have already moved their families away from this country.

 

[Nilgiri]

Tempers and tensions are high so somethings will be near inevitable when we discuss and get heated...

.....but please lets focus on messages not the messengers as much as we can.

We have been over this too many times already in too many places... let us try something better discussion-wise for this forum.

Our great country is immensely diverse in thought, opinion, experience and perspective let us not forget

 

[Nilgiri]

I would say that China isn't a real communist country. But somewhere between Capitalism and Communism. Pragmatism.

It is just authoritarianism. It is pragmatic maybe for those in positions of power, but not very many others.

In a way I think China might transition into something like scandinavian model. Without democracy and free speech.

Really doubt that. Scandinavian model is inherently based on democratic ideals, every socialist idea in play there in policy is by democratic socialism.

You need people to be able to voice fundamentally how its going to the power-holders to be able to get a Scandinavian model....otherwise the govt simply dictates the "data" about it and that is that.

Even though Russia for example quickly changed to an oligarchy structure after 1991 breakup of USSR....you can still see just how much socioeconomic data was being propped up by USSR by "we said so, thus it is"....by the vast chasm of difference in them between 80s and 90s.

@Joe Shearer

 

[Mis_TR_Like]

 

[Joe Shearer]

Not sure why you are asking me this question when you know what precisely what I am talking about.

I thought the lack of precision in the characterisation is, ah, precisely, what is in question.

The rest of the folks who read my post knows as well. So I am not going to waste my time talking over rather irrelevant points.

Does this go by majority vote? So answers to mysteries will be provided only to those questions supported by a majority of those reading these posts?

This is getting fascinating.