India India - China Relations

[Anmdt]

This strategy will fail once arctic route is available and a political consenses is reached regarding to the legality of the straits/ routes. For the people who says 'naah not possible in near future' number of scientific papers related to ice-hull interactions and polar class commercial ship design has greatly increased and yet more people are attracted into it, majority of the experimental studies conducted about ice.
Soon there will be a transition in sea routes, like it has happened with suez canal and cape horn.

Arctic shipping routes - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Thus there should be alternative strategies, cooperation of militaries, given the facts about diversity of military equipments and doctrines in SEA and SE countries a well studied integration of militaries is a must.

 

[Saithan]

India doesnt have to actually do a blockade to begin with. Indian navy boarding vessels heading to chinese ports to perform regular checks on cargo and paperwork is enough to delay the timelines driving up the insurance costs many folds making air cargo more viable option.

In coming years we will see bureaucratic harassment of vessels heading to china which i think is the natural talent of indian red tape bureaucracy.

This kind of harassment is what we turks know the greeks will do if nm in aegean increases from 6 to 12. I think it would be better to decrease it back to 3 nm as stated in Lausanne.

Once you start this kind of harassment you open up for other kind of harassment.

Pirates with antiship missiles or torpedos and such would definitely not be a good thing.

China's strategy is encroachment, naturally growing taking over places locations. Let's face it India and China could take over most european countries just by exporting nationalistic population.

EU and the west have kept Turkey busy and contained for so long due to internal problems and terrorists. including problems in our neighborhood.

I see India having similar problems. Cooperation is good, but you need to avoid the western "cooperation" plan because that's just a zero sum game. Invite more countries to cooperate. Support countries that are exposed to China.

 

[Saithan]

Authoritative systems are only temporarily powerful, they never survive in the long run. Democracy, by far is the best system available in the long run for a country to survive. China is more or less succeeded in the past few decades, but communism will fail the very second the country goes into a real crisis.

I would say that China isn't a real communist country. But somewhere between Capitalism and Communism. Pragmatism.

In a way I am not against restricted capitalism as we can see how it goes in the US. In a way I think China might transition into something like scandinavian model. Without democracy and free speech.

 

[Saithan]

the stakes are very high not just for India but the whole Indo-Pacific Countries, if India were to kowtow to Chinese coercion it'll send a clear signal to China's other smaller less capable nations, in particular the SouthEast Asian states to submit to China's version of might makes right. not only that it'll also serves as a deterrent of a potential military alliance such as the Quad and what comes after it.

the logic is simple, if India can't, so do you

But (at least for now) India appears not to back down and in return China now faces a stiff willing opponents on it's other side of the border. this could either be a gross miscalculations or a brilliant geopolitical maneuver by Beijing, depends on how India would deal with it.

ps: Appeasement never works with a revisionist power, the thing is while people who understand history tends to realize the threats, the people in power don't

Don't expect India to back off. But this border tension seems to affect Nepal too. I was curious and looked a bit into it.

It is a rather small area that is causing the dispute with Nepal, wouldn't it be in India's interest to reach an agreement on that area. I assume of course that you don't have any other territorial disputes with Nepal.

Sorry for sidetracking the thread a bit. But I read that Nepal is potentially being used as a proxy by China. And thought a solution to the small disputed area might alleviate some of the tension, so ressources can be asserted in regions that requires attention.

 

[Nilgiri]

Don't expect India to back off. But this border tension seems to affect Nepal too. I was curious and looked a bit into it.

It is a rather small area that is causing the dispute with Nepal, wouldn't it be in India's interest to reach an agreement on that area. I assume of course that you don't have any other territorial disputes with Nepal.

Sorry for sidetracking the thread a bit. But I read that Nepal is potentially being used as a proxy by China. And thought a solution to the small disputed area might alleviate some of the tension, so ressources can be asserted in regions that requires attention.

Nepal just has political elite that play a cpl games with India. This is bit of long story reflecting also India's internal politics being a each other throats too (given Nepal population is small fraction of the surrounding Indian states)....esp given their political elite all studied and study in India pretty much.

They are a bedrock brother country for us...a huge number of them work in India for example (it is open border for both citizens to live and work in other country...a special relationship that definitely China can never match)

Their people know very well what China has done to Tibet.

 

[Gautam]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303035475674804226

 

[kaykay]

Fire exchanged between Indian and Chinese troops. Both side says 'situation under control now'.

 

[kaykay]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303057245773524992

 

[JanjaWeed]

wow... rules of engagement has changed for good now. Slowly inching towards unstable border on eastern front as well.. Both LOC & LAC are prone to bullets now...

 

[kaykay]

wow... rules of engagement has changed for good now. Slowly inching towards unstable border on eastern front as well.. Both LOC & LAC are prone to bullets now...

This has to happen. For too long we tolerated their 'salami slicing strategy' but this time they crossed the limit.

 

[Nilgiri]

"About to negotiate" lmao .... we had enough of your "negotiation" style

 

[Paro]

According to sops it should have been a warning shot and an alert to everyone in the visinity if some unit feels overwhelmed. Maybe the Chinese tried to take back a post. Hellfire did mention there was activity of Chinese airborne in the area last night. It's just a hunch it's not what it's being portrayed.

 

[JanjaWeed]

Shenapao is the Black Top mountain which Indian gained control few days. PLA patrols were coming towards with primitive weapons wanting to do a Galwan & when normal warnings didnt suffice warning fire was used to send the PLA patrol back. This is the gist of the incident today.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303072282022084608

 

[suryakiran]

Quite assertive.

 

[Grevion]

To hell with the Global Times blaming us for changing long standing agreements at the LAC. It was them who broke peace at the border by using rods nd clubs on June 15 resulting in casualties for the first time in 40+ years. Rules of engagement just cannot be allowed to change at the whim nd fancies of PLA.

 

[Gautam]

Apaches :

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303185670719049728

 

[Paro]

The delusion of India trying to throttle China’s maritime trade

Rowdy debates about going for China’s “jugular” in the Malacca Strait should not obscure the practical difficulties.

www.lowyinstitute.org

 

[Saithan]

To hell with the Global Times blaming us for changing long standing agreements at the LAC. It was them who broke peace at the border by using rods nd clubs on June 15 resulting in casualties for the first time in 40+ years. Rules of engagement just cannot be allowed to change at the whim nd fancies of PLA.

I like how it's going though. India has managed to get the highest points. I think the next move is strenghtening and maintaining the positions. Which is probably what China also expects.

I'd make a preemptive move and drive a wedge in at some point that would make PLA stumble backwards in all haste to strengthen their positions. Alleviate the pressure from the three tops/Black Top.

View attachment 740

Updated map, based on information from OSINT. Please note this may not be accurate as it is NOT coming from any official source.

Information based on OSINT news. All the PLA posts are in low lying areas along the Spangur Lake. Our Positions give direct LOS to all the PLA camps. If the conflict starts, all PLA camps will come under direct artillery fire.

Spangur Gap is where the PLA armor, mechanized Infantry can storm further into Ladakh. With the strategic posts under Indian control. Any attempted invasion will come under immidiate fire of very accurate artillary barrage. Not to mention ATGM's which could be positioned there.

For instance get behind the armored regiment in a position of strength, PLA clearly tries to keep India away from the lake, but having enemy units behind your line in a wedge wouldn't sit well.

Only question is whether that position is sustainable and how much effort it would require.

 

[Maximilian Veers]

I like how it's going though. India has managed to get the highest points. I think the next move is strenghtening and maintaining the positions. Which is probably what China also expects.

I'd make a preemptive move and drive a wedge in at some point that would make PLA stumble backwards in all haste to strengthen their positions. Alleviate the pressure from the three tops/Black Top.

PLA has been amassing even more troops in the area. Close to 10k in addition to the brigade-sized force stationed there. That is almost a division-sized force. Except I have no idea why they are doing this since their only point of entry and exit is the S301 road which can come under direct fire thanks to Reqin la. Why would you put your self in a position where an entire division's worth of troops could be trapped in an encirclement?

For instance get behind the armored regiment in a position of strength, PLA clearly tries to keep India away from the lake, but having enemy units behind your line in a wedge wouldn't sit well.

Only question is whether that position is sustainable and how much effort it would require.

It should be comparatively easier for local Tibetians and scout Batallion already stationed there to hold those peaks in the coming winter considering they were born and brought up in such an environment as compared to the Han's from the mainland who might find comparatively more difficult when the winter comes.

As for the supply lines, I honestly have no idea how we are keeping them supplied and how secure they are. Just looking at the map I feel that the PLA might try to take Gurung and Magar hill at some point in an attempt to cut of black and Helmet top and have direct LOS over Chusul, ALG, and the IA armor below. That is just my guess at this point.

Edit: Now that I think about this. PLA will make a very serious attempt at retaking Rechin la and Razang la. Which will most definitely lead to a firefight as IA will not give in.

 

[Saiyan0321]

The situation is becoming slowly as i predicted months ago. Not good.