Prabowo must be the president
IMO, not simple. Only Kak Wowo as president, doesn't guarantee the expected number of F-15EX can be acquired immediately.
After 2002, Indonesia's constitutional system had completely divided government authority. The President of Indonesia is not a king with absolute authority. President himself can't make laws and state budget, he must involve and obtain the approval of DPR.
Presidential PERPPU is only valid for maximum of 1 year. If DPR doesn't give approval, it will no longer be valid. If state budget stipulated by PERPPU, the budget ceiling may not exceed the previous year.
If elected as president, Kak Wowo must ensure:
- the cabinet consists of credible and competent ministers, and can translate and implement the president's vision and mission effectively and efficiently.
- Kak Wowo's coalition in the DPR must be more than 50%. Even if more than 60% of the DPR seats were controlled by Kak Wowo's coalition, it would be relatively more stable and easier to implement government programs.
The KIR coalition that supports Kak Wowo as capres, only has 23.4% of the seats in DPR. In last opinion poll, Gerindra-PKB combined have around 26% power in future DPR. Kak Wowo still needs a lot of additional strength in DPR, so that his government can implement its mission, including to acquire the expected number of F-15EXs.
We can see 2 terms of Jokowi's administration:
1. Jokowi's first term only had a minority coalition, 36.9% of DPR seats, and had no deputy in the DPR structure.
- The relationship with PDIP had several obstacles. PDI-P was so angry at the appointment of Kapolri. Mak Nyak publicly warned Jokowi at 2015 PDIP Congress in Bali. PDIP even boycotted Minister of SoE, refusing to coordinate during the first term.
- Jokowi government was able to be relatively stable and implemented the programs in 2017. Jokowi succeeded in endorsing 'the coup' in Golkar, then undermined the strength of PAN and PPP.
2. Jokowi's second term controled majority of seats in the DPR.
- Initial coalition had 60.7% of DPR seats, then became so dominant with 81.9% after the joining of Gerindra and PAN.
If elected, Kak Wowo will become president at 72 years old. If he runs again in 2029 pilpres and is elected, then Kak Wowo is the same age as Joe Biden when he became president. However, in Kak Wowo first term, Indonesia will become a country with a nominal GDP of US$ 2 T,
projected to be achieved in 2028.
If defense budget to GDP ratio remain 0.8%, the defense budget will be around US$ 16 billion. 25-40% of the defense budget for capital expenditure, including alutsista acquisition, will be worth US$ 4-6.4 billion. Its capacity has increased almost 2x from current condition.
PS:
- Sorry berat if OTT, form tewur political perspective. Hehehe