Defence Q&A Is the US or China the world’s economic superpower?

xizhimen

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Is the US or China the world’s economic superpower?

TBS Report

01 October, 2021, 02:40 pm

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xizhimen

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It's funny when spammer uses China GDP as any kind of denominator.

It is common knowledge China economy is very export-reliant.. whatever the "%" by some GDP-inflation works out to be.
If only you find out how many highways, HSR, subways,bridges, ports , airports, hospitals, schools...China builds everyday, China is literally changing the face of this planet, China exports a lot , but the precentage in China's GDP is very small, and gets smaller every passing year.
 

Kaptaan

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Germany’s rivalry with Britain in the late 19th and early 20th centuries
It's not a analogue. Germany was only marginally larger then Britain but despite that it would defeated Britain easily. The problem for the Germans was the British not only made a alliance with various powers in Europe in a manner that Germany was locked in. The geograpy of Germany being aas it was sandwiched inbetween Western and Eastern Europe with sealanes all running through the noose adjacent to British coast mean't Germany was locked in. In addition USA joined in placing Germany at hopeless odds.

With China it's other way around. It is actually far larger than USA and has the depth and pool to take on USA. Even if you throw in Allies China still has numbers to balance the equation.

So your comparing apples with water melons.
 

Viva_vietnamm

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It's funny when spammer uses China GDP as any kind of denominator.

It is common knowledge China economy is very export-reliant.. whatever the "%" by some GDP-inflation works out to be.
CN unemployment rate should be around 25 to 30% now when most of employee will be fired after 35.

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35 may be too old to find work in China


An increasingly large number of job applications are asking employees over the age of 35 to not apply, putting a lot of pressure on workers who are not even middle-aged.
Is 35 suddenly becoming “over the hill” in China? It certainly feels that way to some workers.
As the competition for jobs becomes more fierce among a pandemic-related economic slowdown, a growing number of employment ads are posting age limits of 35 for fresh applicants.
The problem is so widespread that state media has even branded it the “age 35 phenomenon.”
The coronavirus pandemic has increased competition for jobs in China, making it harder for people over the age of 35 to find work.

The coronavirus pandemic has increased competition for jobs in China, making it harder for people over the age of 35 to find work. Photo: Xinhua/Wang Xiao

In his forties, David Huang is one of the scores of Chinese workers above 35 feeling increasingly vulnerable.
After the small clothing factory he owned in the southern province of Guangdong closed last year, he now roams between wet markets and roadside stalls, trying to sell his remaining inventory of about 10,000 garments.

“I’m almost 50. Am I going to look for jobs? No. There’s nothing for me out there. Finding jobs is too difficult,” Huang said. “Just look at how bad business is in those clothing retail shops in Guangzhou, you will get an idea how bad wholesaling and manufacturing garments is at the moment.”
The situation only appears to have deteriorated with the pandemic.
According to a report released last month by the Development Research Center of the State Council, nearly two-thirds of people aged 35 and above who were laid off in March last year were still looking for jobs in September.
Consequently, nearly half of the job applicants above 35 fell from middle or high-income groups to low income because their earnings had dropped, according to the study.
There is a perception that people in China over the age of 35 cannot handle the ‘996’ work culture.

There is a perception that people in China over the age of 35 cannot handle the ‘996’ work culture. Photo: Todd Warnock
Age discrimination is illegal in many countries, but not in China, which is facing a rapidly aging population and shrinking workforce after more than three decades of the one-child policy.
Despite this, many companies are seen as favoring young and energetic graduates over middle-aged workers because they can pay lower salaries for similar work.
The trend is most evident in China’s thriving tech sector, where a number of internet firms operate a sweatshop working culture known as “996” – working between 9am to 9pm, six days per week. Most developers over 35 are considered too old to handle the workload.
Tang Ying, 36, has found herself in the grips of insomnia and depression lately while grappling with the possibility of losing her job as a front desk administrative employee at a small tech firm in Guangzhou.
The past year has been a nightmare for Tang: her marriage fell apart and she contracted tuberculosis, an infectious disease affecting the lungs.
When she went back to her job after recovering, the company gave her more work than usual, something she perceived to mean they wanted her to quit.
Yet, she has stayed on, concerned her lack of a university degree will mean she would be unable to find work elsewhere.
“I’m scared. I don’t have confidence in sending out resumes,” said Tang, who worked at a call center as a customer service operator previously. “Many places only want people under 35. I have been battling with this thought a lot. All I think of is trying to hold on to this job.”

Another obstacle for ex-employees of big companies like Huawei is that they have trouble meeting the multiple demands made by smaller firms, said Jim Yang, a 38-year-old who lost his job as a salesman at Huawei three years ago.
It took Yang three months to find a new job at a small robot manufacturer, where he had to take a lower salary.
Meanwhile, some of his old colleagues have gone back to Huawei as contractors on lower incomes and social benefits after struggling to find a job elsewhere.
“Among my friends above 35 who left Huawei, about 40% have kept a decent life,” Yang said.
“The other 60% are a bit miserable. They have either been out of work for a long time and invested in stocks or are partnering with others to start a business, but don’t take salaries, only for dividends. Some have divorced with no job, sold their homes, and returned to their hometowns.”
 

Viva_vietnamm

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If only you find out how many highways, HSR, subways,bridges, ports , airports, hospitals, schools...China builds everyday, China is literally changing the face of this planet, China exports a lot , but the precentage in China's GDP is very small, and gets smaller every passing year.
We also see lots of houses built by Evergrande...and they are Ghost building now :LOL:

Abt 40% of CN thermal power plants are at loss. HSR is at loss too....many of them will follow Evergrande soon :lol:
 

Gary

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It's not a analogue. Germany was only marginally larger then Britain but despite that it would defeated Britain easily.


Most experts agree that the closest analogue to the current Sino-US rivalry was the Anglo-German rivalry preceding WW1. While it's not going to be a 100% reconstruct, this is the closest thing you could get. Remember, history tends to repeat itself ??

If Germany is only marginally larger (assume that larger=better), than China not only that it's not marginally larger, it's actually an underperformer in comparison to the US. Remember China only has 60% GDP of the US with population 4 times that of the US. If marginally better Germany failed to reach their goals of dethroning the British empire, than underperforming China would have significantly lower chances of replacing the US as the world sole superpower, let alone a hyperpower as you like to boast.

Militarily, just look at the PLA, it's got US signature all over the place. Which actually favors the US, because the US will exactly know how the PLA operate in war. This is in sharp contrast to the German empire which has an abundance of military geniuses that actually contribute to the arts and crafts of warfare in Europe prior to WW1.

The problem for the Germans was the British not only made a alliance with various powers in Europe in a manner that Germany was locked in. The geograpy of Germany being aas it was sandwiched inbetween Western and Eastern Europe with sealanes all running through the noose adjacent to British coast mean't Germany was locked in. In addition USA joined in placing Germany at hopeless odds.

In which the same thing are being done in a repetitive manner these last 5 years, remember QUAD, AUKUS ??. China is now in the process of strategic encirclement by US allies, the way imperial Germany are encircled by the entente prior to WW1.

Only this time , the situation could not be more bleak for China. During WW1, the Kaiserliche armee would have no problem maneuvering their large army across Europe with little natural obstacle to fend them off, in China case for example, that would be the exact opposite.

Remember, while the PLA is the world largest armies with an estimated 2+ million troops, not all of their firepower could be bear into their enemies, in Taiwan's case, the numerical PLA superiority will be negated by the simple facts that the PLA doesn't have enough ships to transport all those men into a showdown with the US military in Taiwan. That left only naval and air engagement as the possible way to face the US military.

if history would have thought us anything, when a fleet in inferior numbers and position faces enemies with significantly larger and better equipped navies, they tend to stay in port. Remember what happened to the Kaiserliche Hochseeflotte of the imperial German Navy ?? That is what will likely happened to the PLAN once hostilities started.

China is cursed by US entrenchment in the first island chain, the same way the imperial German navy is trapped by the Royal Navy in the Baltic and Atlantic. Have you heard about the Malacca dilema ??

With China it's other way around. It is actually far larger than USA and has the depth and pool to take on USA. Even if you throw in Allies China still has numbers to balance the equation.

as I mentioned before, China could grow their armies to whatever level they want, 10 million 20 million, they know they would not have enough ships to bring them to the likely frontline with the US. The US is not interested in invading mainland China, their goals is to destroy and incapacitate the PLAN , humiliate Chinese leadership and let angry Chinese populace to do the rest.


basically with the QUAD and AUKUS, the US has the numbers (with India) and the tech and capital ( Japan, UK ,OZ) to take on China.
 
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Viva_vietnamm

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The US is not interested in invading mainland China, their goals is to destroy and incapacitate the PLAN , humiliate Chinese leadership and let angry Chinese populace to do the rest.
True, so many CNese are jobless or earning merely 60 yuan (9usd ) per day. Of course many more become jobless after Evergrade collapse plus many CN thermal power plants closed due to losing profit.

We can't even see how CN can solves those serious problem, but our friend Beijingwalker still can't stop bragging as if CN is already the world’s economic superpower :LOL:

Superpower with hundred millions people earning less than 9 usd per day :LOL:

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China also has to figure out what to do with the 8.7 million students graduating from college, the largest class on record. And it must ensure there are sustainable options for the hundreds of millions of migrant laborers and informal workers who were, and still are, the most poorly represented people in the official unemployment rate.

In a village near the Yangtze River in landlocked Anhui province, Yu Deping is still out of work, and broke. An electrician, Mr. Yu returned home from Beijing in January to celebrate the Lunar New Year with his family. The epidemic made it impossible to go back to the capital, and then his wife became sick, depleting the family's savings.

Stuck in a place surrounded by rice paddies and fish ponds, Mr. Yu is almost certainly not reflected in China's unemployment data, which don't capture many migrant workers because only urban residents are surveyed.

With two children and 17,000 yuan ($2,400) in loans from relatives to pay off, he recently got a bit of work doing apartment renovations in a nearby county, but his boss can't guarantee steady work. Heading back to Beijing isn't a great option, given the weak economy.

"It's no 100% guarantee you can easily get a job in the city," he said.

The data

Getting a precise read on China's jobs situation has always been hard. For years, Beijing relied mainly on people voluntarily disclosing their unemployment.

In 2018, the statistics bureau began releasing a national urban unemployment rate based on surveys in more than 600 cities. The bureau said the new data would bring China in line with international standards and help the government better manage the economy.

The data have important omissions, economists say. They don't include migrant workers who were once employed in cities but returned home for various reasons. It is assumed that most of the country's roughly 174 million migrant laborers who work away from home have farms they can fall back on if they lose their city jobs -- as many did this year -- and therefore don't need to be counted as unemployed.

Nor do the data include people in cities who are forced to work fewer hours than they'd like, or who have had pay cuts.

The official U.S. unemployment rate hit 14.7% in April, the highest level since data began in 1948. In May, employers added 2.5 million jobs -- the most in a single month since 1948 -- and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3%. U.S. data don't capture all of the people who are underemployed or who have given up looking for work.

But unlike China, the U.S. counts as unemployed some people not working any hours even while technically employed. The U.S. also has a wider array of monthly statistics than China does to reflect such people.

Chen Xingdong, a China economist at BNP Paribas, estimates that once everyone is factored in, as many as 132 million Chinese workers were at one point unemployed, temporarily displaced or furloughed this year -- or about 30% of China's urban workforce. He says it is fair to count displaced migrants as unemployed because farming isn't really viable for many of them once they have ventured out into cities.

"From an economic point of view, I don't think those people will work on the land," Mr. Chen said. "I see them as having no income, no job.
"

Feng Weibing, a 51-year-old who has been struggling to find work on interior-decoration projects in Beijing, agrees. While he has land in rural Jiangsu province, he said, "There is no way we can make a living as farmers."

"The average cost for us in Jiangsu is around 100 yuan ($14) a day, but as a farmer, you can only earn about 60 yuan a day," he said. He is sticking it out in Beijing, hoping conditions will improve.

As China's employment situation deteriorated this year, Chinese officials provided a one-time set of figures on people who were employed but not really working, though they didn't elaborate on how the information was gathered. The statistics bureau said 3.5% of people in cities were "employed but not working" in April, down from 18.3% in March.

Most economists believe the number of people unwillingly working part time is likely greater, or not captured in this data.

In central Hubei province, 31-year-old Chen Xiaomo said her tea shop inside a scenic site near the Three Gorges Dam had suffered a dearth of visitors since the coronavirus spread. No longer able to turn a profit, Ms. Chen decided to close her store for half the week rather than operate full-time.

"The whole site here used to provide income for the local community," she said. "Compared to before, it is night and day."

The situation is also affecting higher-income families. In Beijing, 36-year-old Fang Yin said she gave up on finding work this April when an internet firm she worked for downsized. Trying to find a new job in an economic downtown felt futile, she said

 

xizhimen

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as I mentioned before, China could grow their armies to whatever level they want, 10 million 20 million, they know they would not have enough ships to bring them to the likely frontline with the US. The US is not interested in invading mainland China, their goals is to destroy and incapacitate the PLAN , humiliate Chinese leadership and let angry Chinese populace to do the rest.
In mock war with China, US lost every single of them. their generals are so worried about conflicts with China and they even made phone calls skipping the consent from US president, China's anti ship missile system now is argubly the best in the world, if US had a sea battle with China in the waters close to China, it'll be a guaranteed defeat for US.
 

Gary

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In mock war with China, US lost every single of them.

this sounds scary until you realized that the US intentionally rigged their own military exercise. The red team simulating China in those exercise are Americans, and Chinese are not in the same league as their American counterparts

and from each of those "failures", they learn and re-learn their own mistake and comes with a solution.

during the cold war there are real sentiments that the US military would be overtaken and defeated by the Soviet military, only in the end we knew that those are hyped up to convince congress to increase military spending.

Now ask yourself did the US intentionally "leak" those defeat so that it could harm their own troops morale ??? Or they're doing that to justify increase defense spending ??


their generals are so worried about conflicts with China and they even made phone calls skipping the consent from US president,

in fact it's a phone calls to deter China into spiraling into what would likely be a nuclear attack by Trump. Not conventional one.


that's justifed.
China's anti ship missile system now is argubly the best in the world,

yeah arguably, what's your answer to the LRASM ???? C-802 ?? :ROFLMAO:

if US had a sea battle with China in the waters close to China, it'll be a guaranteed defeat for US.
see this ??

Oli-Actual-1.jpg

 

xizhimen

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this sounds scary until you realized that the US intentionally rigged their own military exercise. The red team simulating China in those exercise are Americans, and Chinese are not in the same league as their American counterparts
It's very plausible that US can't win close to Chinese waters, even in mock war, they won everyone a decade ago, but now , they started to lose, see the change of balance?
 

xizhimen

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during the cold war there are real sentiments that the US military would be overtaken and defeated by the Soviet military, only in the end we knew that those are hyped up to convince congress to increase military spending.
Sentiments are not same as real military professional assessments, US public worried about nuclear war with Russia during the cold war, they didn't worry about losing a sea war. besides, if US and Russia had a land war in Europe back then, till now people still believe US wouldn't have a better chance to win.
 

Gary

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It's very plausible that US can't win close to Chinese waters, even in mock war, they won everyone a decade ago, but now , they started to lose, see the change of balance?

You seems to accept everything the US military intentionally reveal about those exercise as gospel,


now would you accept this too ??

The US military has all the necessary capabilities to defeat China in case of a military invasion of Taiwan and if a respective political decision is made, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said during a congressional hearing on Thursday.

 

Gary

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Sentiments are not same as real military professional assessments, US public worried about nuclear war with Russia during the cold war, they didn't worry about losing a sea war. besides, if US and Russia had a land war in Europe back then, till now people still believe US wouldn't have a better chance to win.
here's a military professional giving assessment about China.

"“My assessment, in terms of capability, I think China has a ways to go to develop the actual, no-kidding capability to conduct military operations to seize through military means the entire island of Taiwan, if they wanted to do that," Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told the Senate Appropriations Committee.

Ships are sitting ducks if they are within the range of landbase anti ship missiles, saturation attack will give them very little survival chance.
correct and how are you going to find those ships in the vast ocean and not mistaken them for a tanker ???

you don't think much aren't you ??
 

xizhimen

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You seems to accept everything the US military intentionally reveal about those exercise as gospel,


now would you accept this too ??

The US military has all the necessary capabilities to defeat China in case of a military invasion of Taiwan and if a respective political decision is made, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said during a congressional hearing on Thursday.

They can try, when they invaded other countries, they also believed they can win, even in Korean war, they believed Chinese troops were just pushover in the beginning.
 

xizhimen

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here's a military professional giving assessment about China.

"“My assessment, in terms of capability, I think China has a ways to go to develop the actual, no-kidding capability to conduct military operations to seize through military means the entire island of Taiwan, if they wanted to do that," Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told the Senate Appropriations Committee.


correct and how are you going to find those ships in the vast ocean and not mistaken them for a tanker ???

you don't think much aren't you ??
If they sail close to Chinese waters, now the satelite technology can pinpoint a car on the ground, let alone a ship.
 

Gary

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They can try, when they invaded other countries, they also believed they can win, even in Korean war, they believed Chinese troops were just pushover in the beginning.
ahh here's comes Korea, the only military achievement you could be proud of. which is 70+ years ago. and basically a stalemate with a huge loss of lives on your side.

have you ever thought about institutional memory to back those claims in Korea applicable to the warzone of today ??


If they sail close to Chinese waters, now the satelite technology can pinpoint a car on the ground, let alone a ship.

yes, and do you know the exact time those satellite stays on top of the said target ?? Satellite move at extremely fast speed in LEO.

By the time you relay those positions back , the ships will be thousands of Km further from the original coordinate.

watch this:
 

xizhimen

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ahh here's comes Korea, the only military achievement you could be proud of. which is 70+ years ago. and basically a stalemate with a huge loss of lives on your side.
Course US didn't dare to militarily challenge China ever since, China also took over Paracel islands in SCS from US treaty ally South Vietnam in 1974, and US 7th fleet was just nearby, but they rejected S. Vietnam's urgent request for help, this show how reliable US is as an ally.
 

xizhimen

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ahh here's comes Korea, the only military achievement you could be proud of. which is 70+ years ago. and basically a stalemate with a huge loss of lives on your side.

have you ever thought about institutional memory to back those claims in Korea applicable to the warzone of today ??




yes, and do you know the exact time those satellite stays on top of the said target ?? Satellite move at extremely fast speed in LEO.

By the time you relay those positions back , the ships will be thousands of Km further from the original coordinate.

watch this:
China has so many satelites in the space, and you don't believe your car can't be spotted and your GPS will stop working just because it is right under a satelite, right? China also has numerous under water drones operated in various depths in Chinese waters.
 

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China has so many satelites in the space,

the same could be said with the US, they has more satellites than yours. what makes you think PLAN ships will be safe ??
and you don't believe your car can't be spotted and your GPS will stop working just because it is right under a satelite, right? China also has numerous under water drones operated in various depths in Chinese waters.

First of all. the satellite orbits are pre determined, each and every satellite had slots, and I bet your salary the US knows when and where those satellites will passes.

in which they could use deception to fool the foe commanders.

again watch this video minute 4:57


we're not even talking the options to use ASAT.
 

xizhimen

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the same could be said with the US, they has more satellites than yours. what makes you think PLAN ships will be safe ??
I said if they sail close to China and exposed themselves to China's world largest landbased anti ship missile network.
 

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