Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[Nilgiri]

What is Natenyahu's endgame? He's willing to sacrifice the Israeli hostages, so it's clear that he is going to turn the city into rubble. But he cannot genocide 2 million people. Especially considering half them are children younger than 14.

Do you think he(Natenyahu) will offer a country money(for instance to Egypt) to host Palestinians like the EU did to Turkiye for the Syrian refugees? If not, what is his plan? Where will he stop?

I am pretty certain, as much as I hate to have to see things go this way, that a massive population transfer will be imposed on the Gaza civilian population in the later phases of this war.

The early phases will follow contours commensurate to what can be done w.r.t the hostages, that is the only thing Israel will directly care about to do what it can (hamas-focused strikes only, concurrent backchannel negotiation for swaps and releases etc) till that becomes a lost cause.

The next phases will unfortunately very likely involve a full eviction of the Gazan population, and then the bulldozing of Gaza after their departure (the hamas die hards can stick around if they really want I suppose and see what that looks like).

They will be evicted to the rest of the arab world. Israel and US will likely offer some economic and strategic package to lubricate this, in the end the Gaza population is small drop of total Arab population and the oil wealth to host them.

In manner somewhat resembling how things were done with the Germans post ww2 (those that had already not fled to the new borders imposed on Germany by the victors)...though hopefully with far less casualty rate in the process. About 10 million evicted forcibly (from Poland, Baltics, Czechia and central europe) and another 1 million or so till the 1980s. People often overlook this part of the history and its precedent.

The middle east region even recently is not stranger to these massive population shifts and hosting by other countries. Iranian regime engineered one on purpose at great scale in Syria to support the Assad Regime....again entire areas depopulated and demographically changed pretty much permanently (these people will not return).

Past middle east recently, many millions have left Afghanistan (2 million or so just since the taliban takeover).... 2 million rohingya or so will be permanent part of Bangladesh again by Burmese action to permanently demographically change Arakan area.

There is simply no way Israel will go back to earlier status quo of having Gaza population in proximity to it. This has long been talked about in US deep state and the jewish lobby group (that all laundered the settler expansion narrative for the west already, they have long term praxis established in the power corridors to do this). It will be implemented now.

From their collective security resolution (especially under very right wing Likud ecosystem that has grabbed immense amount of political sway in Israel over last few decades that the centre and left have no option but to back in response to these hamas actions)...and also "pour encourager les autres".

It is pretty baked in, people can watch the following years and rest of the decade and see what transpires for themselves, but I find this course of action or some version of it quite likely from what I have studied deeply about Israel and the US/West.

 

[Bozan]

Until the Gazi Atatürk passed away, British intelligence lived in dreadful fear of Atatürk's activities in Syria and Iraq. In recent years, many declassified intelligence documents have also come to light. They tried to follow our activities in those countries step by step. Apart from that, he had a special interest in the Iraq issue. Our political moves in Syria are also the stuff of textbooks.

So in short, I don't really believe in the truth of this sentence.

The Iraq file was a total failure and what happened in the 1920s-1930s led to the KRG forming.

 

[TheInsider]

Hezbollah is amassing troops near the border both in Golan and Lebanon. The estimated rocket inventory of Hezbollah is north of 750k (doesn't include ATGMs etc. only artillery rockets and tactical+short range ballistic missiles)

The Interior Ministry of Israel ordered citizens to store enough food and water to last for 72 hours and be ready to move to shelters in a short time.

IDF is expected to start ground ops soon.

HAMAS will execute a prisoner each time IAF destroys a building. HAMAS will broadcast it live with sound.

All schools in South Lebanon are closed. Hundreds of ambulances are moved to south Lebanon. Health workers on leave called back.

Erdoğan phoned the presidents of Palestine, Lebanon, and Israel.

IDF will operate as if Israeli prisoners are already dead.

Hezbollah will answer today's IDF bombardment of Lebanon.

 

[dBSPL]

The Iraq file was a total failure and what happened in the 1920s-1930s led to the KRG forming.

Fundamentally, I cannot object to this, there are processes in the process, I am not going to babble on because it is off-topic, but if the pre-ww II process in Europe had been longer by another 15 years, history could have been written differently in ME.

 

[TheInsider]

Saudi Arabia announced to G20 states the withdrawal from the India-Saudi Arabia-Israel-EU trade road plan. Saudi Arabia also withdrew from the normalization process with Israel.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711500889872036330

Even though some people will say that the Israeli woman misunderstood the issue and that the people who broke into her house were actually rapists, I will still share this video.

 

[dBSPL]

Saudi Arabia announced to G20 states the withdrawal from the India-Saudi Arabia-Israel-EU trade road plan. Saudi Arabia also withdrew from the normalization process with Israel.

If the Saudis support us, we can finish the Iraqi railroad in 2 years, including all the gulf countries.

 

[Bogeyman]

If the Saudis support us, we can finish the Iraqi railroad in 2 years, including all the gulf countries.

I don't think the USA will leave us alone. It is definitely possible for DAEŞ to emerge from somewhere and cause terror.

 

[dBSPL]

I don't think the USA will leave us alone. It is definitely possible for DAEŞ to emerge from somewhere and cause terror.

Even after 150 years, the Iraqi railroad is a critical issue in terms of Turkish geopolitics, with great reservations about Turks access to it. So we agree that it is not a rose garden. It is the Turkish army that will build this road, even if the politicians have signed it. But on the other hand, if there will commonality of interests with the Gulf countries, which are turning to alternatives recently, this gives the Turkish military a room for maneuver that the Gulf states cannot object.

 

[Lool]

And people are wondering why America's strength is waning recently
A clown is ruling the US

Translation:
Global warming is more dangerous than nuclear war - Joe Biden

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711512458261565828

 

[Bogeyman]

Children and sick detainees in Israeli prisons 17.04.2023

There are many children among the Palestinians detained by Israeli forces on various allegations. Some of the Palestinian children are sentenced to prison by Israeli courts after these detentions.

While it is recorded that Israel has detained 882 Palestinian children in 2022 and approximately 50 thousand Palestinian children since 1967, detained Palestinian children are also deprived of education and training in conditions that violate international law and conventions on children's rights.

Of the nearly 5 thousand Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons, 31 are women and 160 are children under the age of 18.

Among these people, the number of those sentenced to life imprisonment is 554, while nearly 700 sick people are detained.

Israel continues to hold in prison 24 detainees with cancer who are in serious need of care and 700 patients, some with tumors of varying degrees.

NGOs dealing with prisoner rights point out that Israel implements a policy of "medical negligence" and "slow killing" against Palestinian prisoners and warn that the right to health of sick prisoners is violated.

Israel's "administrative detention" practice

With the practice it calls "administrative detention", Israel can detain Palestinians for 1 to 6 months without even being charged with any crime. This period can be extended up to 5 years if the military courts decide that the detainee "poses a danger to the security of Israel".

There are 1016 "administrative detainees" in Israeli prisons, including 6 children.

Reports published by human rights organizations point out that there has been a significant increase in administrative detention orders recently, including new arrest orders and renewals of previous detention orders. Accordingly, as of the end of 2022, 2 thousand 409 administrative detention decisions were made, and this was recorded as the highest number in the last 5 years.

İnsan hakları örgütleri, İsrail'in Filistinli tutuklulara karşı hak ihlallerindeki artışa dikkati çekiyor

Filistinli insan hakları örgütleri, 2022'nin İsrail’in Filistinlilere karşı gözaltı ve tutuklamalarla ağır insan hakları ihlallerine ve cezaevlerinde artan baskıcı politikalarına tanık olunan bir yıl olduğuna dikkati çekiyor. - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

There is no court for these children. These children leave home at the age of 13 and return home at the age of 30-40. In which country in the world did you see this?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711391342700712231

This is how children who throw rocks at police have been treated for years.

 

[Afif]

I am pretty certain, as much as I hate to have to see things go this way, that a massive population transfer will be imposed on the Gaza civilian population in the later phases of this war.

The early phases will follow contours commensurate to what can be done w.r.t the hostages, that is the only thing Israel will directly care about to do what it can (hamas-focused strikes only, concurrent backchannel negotiation for swaps and releases etc) till that becomes a lost cause.

The next phases will unfortunately very likely involve a full eviction of the Gazan population, and then the bulldozing of Gaza after their departure (the hamas die hards can stick around if they really want I suppose and see what that looks like).

They will be evicted to the rest of the arab world. Israel and US will likely offer some economic and strategic package to lubricate this, in the end the Gaza population is small drop of total Arab population and the oil wealth to host them.

In manner somewhat resembling how things were done with the Germans post ww2 (those that had already not fled to the new borders imposed on Germany by the victors)...though hopefully with far less casualty rate in the process. About 10 million evicted forcibly (from Poland, Baltics, Czechia and central europe) and another 1 million or so till the 1980s. People often overlook this part of the history and its precedent.

The middle east region even recently is not stranger to these massive population shifts and hosting by other countries. Iranian regime engineered one on purpose at great scale in Syria to support the Assad Regime....again entire areas depopulated and demographically changed pretty much permanently (these people will not return).

Past middle east recently, many millions have left Afghanistan (2 million or so just since the taliban takeover).... 2 million rohingya or so will be permanent part of Bangladesh again by Burmese action to permanently demographically change Arakan area.

There is simply no way Israel will go back to earlier status quo of having Gaza population in proximity to it. This has long been talked about in US deep state and the jewish lobby group (that all laundered the settler expansion narrative for the west already, they have long term praxis established in the power corridors to do this). It will be implemented now.

From their collective security resolution (especially under very right wing Likud ecosystem that has grabbed immense amount of political sway in Israel over last few decades that the centre and left have no option but to back in response to these hamas actions)...and also "pour encourager les autres".

It is pretty baked in, people can watch the following years and rest of the decade and see what transpires for themselves, but I find this course of action or some version of it quite likely from what I have studied deeply about Israel and the US/West.

With all due respect, I disagree. You are seeing an easy end to this through a mass exodus. I am not, at least not yet.

I am surprised that you missed the fact that Palestinian case differ considerably from the other examples in its extra sensitivity due to its relation to the holy land, And how this religious dimension can impact the whole thing. Perhaps you did not miss it but definitely underestimated it.

This very active religious dimension cannot be solved with strategic and economic package. If it is not addressed correctly, then Israel would be in eternal unease with any democratic Muslim nation. (Where vast majority of people's sentiments is not possible to ignore and will be expressed at higher institutional level in some ways or forms)

The way world is changing, it would be unwise to see a completely one sided permanent (Israeli) solution to this century old Israel-Palestine crisis. We simply cannot predict how middle East is gonna look like in 2040-50.

 

[Afif]

 

[GoatsMilk]

A comment taken from Azerbaijan reddit;

"Hamas is evil and not all Palestinians support them. But Israel does a good job telling uninformed folks Hamas=Palestine.

Hamas would not exist today were it not for the Jewish state? The Israelis helped turn a bunch of fringe Palestinian Islamists in the late 70s into one of the world’s most notorious militant groups.

This isn’t a conspiracy theory. Listen to former Israeli officials such as Brig. Gen. Yitzhak Segev, who was the Israeli military governor in Gaza in the early 1980s. Segev later told a New York Times reporter that he had helped finance the Palestinian Islamist movement as a “counterweight” to the secularists and leftists of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Fatah party, led by Yasser Arafat (who himself referred to Hamas as “a creature of Israel.”). PLO was secular and liberal, which was being supported by most European countries. Israel had to change the status quo and supported the radical and conservative opposition. Arafat wasn’t even allowed to leave the compound he was in.

“The Israeli government gave me a budget,” the retired brigadier general confessed, “and the military government gives to the mosques.”

“Hamas, to my great regret, is Israel’s creation,” Avner Cohen, a former Israeli religious affairs official who worked in Gaza for more than two decades, told the Wall Street Journal in 2009. Back in the mid-80s, Cohen even wrote an official report to his superiors warning them not to play divide-and-rule in the Occupied Territories, by backing Palestinian Islamists against Palestinian secularists. “I … suggest focusing our efforts on finding ways to break up this monster before this reality jumps in our face,” he wrote.

https://theintercept.com/2018/02/19/hamas-israel-palestine-conflict/

I firmly believe that the Israeli government has the strings of Hamas in their hands and have them commit terrorist attacks on demand, so that they can justify taking more land from the Palestinians. Being criticized for being an apartheid, Israel was losing its popularity recently and Netanyahu was in dire straits personally, and needed to turn things around."

 

[Nilgiri]

With all due respect, I disagree. You are seeing an easy end to this through a mass exodus. I am not, at least not yet.

I am surprised that you missed the fact that Palestinian case differ considerably from the other examples in its extra sensitivity due to its relation to the holy land, And how this religious dimension can impact the whole thing. Perhaps you did not miss it but definitely underestimated it.

This very active religious dimension cannot be solved with strategic and economic package. If it is not addressed correctly, then Israel would be in eternal unease with any democratic Muslim nation. (Where vast majority of people's sentiments is not possible to ignore and will be expressed at higher institutional level in some ways or forms)

The way world is changing, it would be unwise to see a completely one sided permanent (Israeli) solution to this century old Israel-Palestine crisis. We simply cannot predict how middle East is gonna look like in 2040-50.

I'm just telling you whats very likely going to happen the way I see it.

There is nothing holy in Gaza, its a population that mostly in turn moved (by 48 war/coercion but also before it) to what was part of Egypt at the time (post 48 war).

And for quite a long time recently, Egyptians dont want it back, you couldn't pay them to take it back....especially now under Sisi and anti-MB regime back as default.

If folks want to under-estimate impact of Iran's demographic engineering in Syria in recent times as far as the immediate precedent it has set, they are free to.

But Israel under Likud dominant establishment (that I see 0 chance of going away for rest of my lifetime) will make hay out of it.

If West Bank Palestinians in long term response want to displace Fatah there and replace that with something like Hamas, they are again free to....and witness those consequences as they come.

But whats going to happen to Gaza now is just matter of moving people away from it.

If Hamas leadership can live on an oil slush fund protection in Qatar, so can a mere drop of 2 million people in larger arab world (as far as Israel, US and large parts of the west will see it now and implement accordingly).

The slush funds are big....arab population is vast. Precedents are set in what Arabs let Iran do to them. *Shrug* it is what it is.

 

[Era_shield]

Reddit has instituted site-wide censorship banning any pro-Hamas content or even any video shot from Hamas POV. The image linked in that post is archived here.

 

[Ravager]

What is Natenyahu's endgame? He's willing to sacrifice the Israeli hostages, so it's clear that he is going to turn the city into rubble. But he cannot genocide 2 million people. Especially considering half them are children younger than 14.

Do you think he(Natenyahu) will offer a country money(for instance to Egypt) to host Palestinians like the EU did to Turkiye for the Syrian refugees? If not, what is his plan? Where will he stop?

Hey , he is your champion remember ?? You should know him better than we do .
Or let me reprhase it again... You know what he will do . But ,you are simply won't believed it ...

I answered that question in previous pages, but I will summarize it for you.

Israel has been taking one small bite after another from Palestine without any consequences. Palestinians are in an existential crisis anyway. Becuase, it is evidently clear that Israel does not want two state solution.

But now Hamas has forced Israel take a big bite through a full scale war. Which won't be that much consequential for Israel militarily because of the conventional overmatch, However, politically (both internally and internationally) massive civilian casualties would be costly for Israel.

What happened in last 48 hours is too big and consequential to have a temporary end.

Either there will be full a scale bloody conflict and Hamas will perish. And the dream of Palestinian state will cease to exist. (Which would have happened anyway slowly)

Or there has to be an actual long term settlement in the end. UN, US, EU or Egypt brokered cease-fires aren't gonna work this time for either sides.

In a nuthsell, It has created a chance (no matter how small it is) for an actual long term settlement compared to the other option, which is to perish slowly but surely.

In military terms, Hamas has sieze the initiative and imposed its will on the enemy. However, will it be able to hold the initiative and exploit it is existential question for itself and the Palestinian state.

It still can go either way ... Too early to tell . But , IMO ... Hamas train are on the loose ... They can't go back now . Better be gone off with a bang ..

Never purposefully kill children, unless they're shooting at you. There are plenty of countries around the world that are growing only through immigration and would be happy to have young, reasonably healthy families of Palistinians that want a better life and are willing to move somewhere safer, work hard and add to our tax base.

Of those 1 million young people, I'd happily have my country (Canada) take 250,000 of them. We have vast territory and regions of the country that we need to populate. As long as they have no ties to extremism and are willing to integrate into our culture in the customary ways, I'd be happy to bring them here and get them out of harm's way. They're completely free to practice any religion of their choice and they'll find robust communities willing to help them get settled.

We already have a huge base of Lebanese folks that have thrived in cities such as Ottawa and Montreal and have developed robust businesses, blessed us with some of their best food and live happy, healthy, safe lives. I see no reason why the same cannot be true for Palestinians.

Are you speaking as a Canadian gov representatif here ?? Seriously ... I am curious ...

I'm just telling you whats very likely going to happen the way I see it.

There is nothing holy in Gaza, its a population that mostly in turn moved (by 48 war/coercion but also before it) to what was part of Egypt at the time (post 48 war).

And for quite a long time recently, Egyptians dont want it back, you couldn't pay them to take it back....especially now under Sisi and anti-MB regime back as default.

If folks want to under-estimate impact of Iran's demographic engineering in Syria in recent times as far as the immediate precedent it has set, they are free to.

But Israel under Likud dominant establishment (that I see 0 chance of going away for rest of my lifetime) will make hay out of it.

If West Bank Palestinians in long term response want to displace Fatah there and replace that with something like Hamas, they are again free to....and witness those consequences as they come.

But whats going to happen to Gaza now is just matter of moving people away from it.

If Hamas leadership can live on an oil slush fund protection in Qatar, so can a mere drop of 2 million people in larger arab world (as far as Israel, US and large parts of the west will see it now and implement accordingly).

The slush funds are big....arab population is vast. Precedents are set in what Arabs let Iran do to them. *Shrug* it is what it is.

Too early to tell while i do share most of your point of end game ...

What most people see here is nothing but short time frame . While people like @Gary and me seeing this from a long term view. . Pacific flash point is nothing but a certain . Sooner or later US will get himself in a situation where they barely could give an attention elsewhere but to fend for themselves . They will come out on top no question about it ..but at what cost ? Think very hard people ...china today were germans X5 . What kind behemoth existences do you all need that can stop them ?? For all of their rhetoric and posturing sokor and japan knows how this thing going to play and lamented deep inside . Too bad they allready in US bandwagon and couldn't get off without a massive consequences ...

Live in reality people ..see more and hear more ..

 

[Mis_TR_Like]

Seems like Israel is going to bomb all suspected Hamas positions irregardless of potential hostsge casualties. Hamas's hostage strategy was supposed to prevent Israeli airstrikes, but after Hamas threatened to execute hostages it seems like Israel has given up on rescuing them. Which not only means that Gaza will be flattened, but that Hamas's strategy will lead to the deaths of the majority of Israeli captives, potentially hundreds of thousands of Palestinians and the biggest blow to Hamas yet.

They essentially commited suicide for little gain. Yes they fought effectively and did a lot of damage, but Israel's air power advantage will be too much to handle. Ultimately it's the Palestinians civilians who will pay the biggest price for Hamas's attack.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Seems like Israel is going to bomb all suspected Hamas positions irregardless of potential hostsge casualties. Hamas's hostage strategy was supposed to prevent Israeli airstrikes, but after Hamas threatened to execute hostages it seems like Israel has given up on rescuing them. Which not only means that Gaza will be flattened, but that Hamas's strategy will lead to the deaths of the majority of Israeli captives, potentially hundreds of thousands of Palestinians and the biggest blow to Hamas yet.

They essentially commited suicide for little gain. Yes they fought effectively and did a lot of damage, but Israel's air power advantage will be too much to handle. Ultimately it's the Palestinians civilians who will pay the biggest price for Hamas's attack.

Anything with Iranian backing always ends with Israel making gains. Without Iran Isreal could have never expanded and convinced the world the people shes colonising/destroying are the bad guys.

 

[Xenon54]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711500889872036330

Even though some people will say that the Israeli woman misunderstood the issue and that the people who broke into her house were actually rapists, I will still share this video.

So this undoes the terrorism by others?
By that logic israel would be an angel since they treated palestinians in israeli hospitals after bombing them.