Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[Relic]

Hezbollah confirms that dear leader is dead.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/world/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas

 

[SilverMachine]

"We'll keep up the good fight, death to the west, Hamas are cuddly friendly puppies, AHH I THINK I HEAR A DRONE BUZZING! RUN!"

Etc.

 

[Relic]

I'm not writing this to be an annoying contrarian, but if there was a region wide popular mobilization, I can see Israel being defeated conventionally. We don't know how Israel can actually deal with an actual naval blockade of Red Sea and Mediterranean or Turkish pipelines, let alone a proper ballistic missile barrage followed by a militia zerg rush. Regional actors are too disjointed and divided to do this but if the stars align somehow, Israel can absolutely be beaten on the battlefield, if you don't count the nukes that is.

And just to add, this adding and subtracting aircraft inventory is a little childish. Readiness levels, munitions availability, command capability, political will, military infrastructure, logistics, weather, luck, espionage all play into the result. I believe this joint force composition has a great potential for dealing damage but would fail to ultimately hold back a decentralized but relentless attack by a large opposing force, especially if that attack comes after a relatively effective BM bombardment.

1. There is no legitimate blockade of the Red Sea that is going to happen with 2 American Carrier Groups in the region. Will there be heightened danger for vessels in region? Yes. A full blockade? No. Not to mention, port access through the Mediterranean will not be blocked.

2. Readiness levels of aircraft and access to ammunition are both relavent points, however, nobody is insinuating that there will be hundreds of American, Israeli and British strike platforms airborne simultaneously. You only need a small number with the quality of Western weapons to wipe out entire armored columns and hundreds of fighters "zerg rushing". Air power is the great equalizer.

3. I purposely left out the immense drone capability that both USA and Israel possess. More "death" from above. Not to mention the hundreds of land attack cruise missiles waiting off the Israeli coast in Arleigh Burke Destroyers and lurking U.S. submarines.

How many militants / military personel are involved in this "zerg" rush you speak of? How much combat power, armor, artillery, etc are they bringing to the table to counter what Israel posseses. Which nations are suddenly involved in this plan?

 

[SilverMachine]

And to reiterate, Vatan, that's only speaking conventional weapons. What happens if your Israel's-gotta-go-down stuff succeeds, one in a million chance?

They're not going down without taking down everyone in that part of the world in an irradiated glass wasteland. Your "winning" scenario is worse than your losing one. If it ever got to that, which it wouldn't.